Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. I am not a professional financial advisor. Technical signals can fail. Do your own work before you risk capital.
QQQ Full-Curve BUY vs XOP Front-End SELL: ETF Technical Signals After the September 25 Close
Published Saturday, September 26, 2026
SPY closed Friday at 771.35, up 1.27% from last Friday’s 761.69. The S&P 500 finished at 7,743.41, a 1.21% weekly gain and a 0.51% Friday bounce. The Nasdaq Composite rose 2.06% on the week to 27,068.72. The Dow rose 0.28% to 51,828.62, snapping a three-week slide. The 10-year Treasury tagged 5.228% midweek and settled near 5.18%. WTI settled $92.41, down 2.3% Friday and about 8% on the week after Hormuz-reopen talk. Last week’s 5-day XOP BUY and 5-day XLE BUY both lost money. The new sheet flipped both energy prints to the short side in the front.
Overall Market Insights
Technology took the week and the models followed it all the way out the curve. QQQ closed 744.50, up 3.19% from 721.45. XLK closed 196.27, up 3.52% from 189.60. The sheet now prints a three-model BUY in QQQ at 5, 15, 20, 25, and 30 days. That is the full available stack except 10 days, which stayed blank. TQQQ flipped from last week’s 10-day SELL to a three-model 5-day BUY. Do not treat the two as the same clock. QQQ is a five-horizon long. TQQQ is a 5-day long only.
Energy is the other clean flip. Last week XLE and XOP were three-model 5-day BUYs. Both funds sold off with crude. XLE fell 3.53% to 62.04. XOP fell 4.78% to 181.50. XES fell 2.81% to 112.57. The new file kills the 5-day energy longs and prints three-model SELLs in XOP at 5 and 10 days. XLE is a three-model BUY at 10 days and Buys at 20 and 25. That is not a contradiction if you keep the clocks separate: E&P is short in the front, integrated energy is long behind 10 days. XES is a three-model BUY at 30 days only.
Healthcare flipped from last week’s back-end long to a 15- and 20-day short. XLV is a three-model SELL at 15 and 20 days and a Buy at 25. The fund rose 1.37% this week to 170.70. The models are not chasing that bounce. They are fading the next three to four weeks. XHS stayed long at 20 and 30. XBI stayed a 30-day Buy.
Last week’s industrial stack is gone. XLI had three-model BUYs at 15, 25, and 30 days on the September 19 file. Those All-column prints are blank this week. DIA kept Buys at 15 through 30 days, with a three-model BUY only at 20. The Dow bounced 0.3% after three down weeks. That is a thinner long than last week’s industrial call.
The remaining shorts sit in gold in the front, metals in the front, junk and Treasuries, banks at 30 days, homebuilders at 25–30, mid-caps at 25–30, and SPY at 15 days against a 30-day Buy. GLD is a three-model SELL at 5 days and a Buy at 30. XME is a three-model SELL at 5 days. JNK is a three-model SELL at 10 and 30. BND is a Sell at 20 and a three-model SELL at 30. KBE is a three-model SELL at 30. XHB is a Sell at 25 and a three-model SELL at 30. IJH is a Sell at 25 and 30. SPY is a three-model SELL at 15 days and a Buy at 30. Two clocks, two trades. Do not flatten them.
Highlights of Bullish and Bearish Signals
Bullish clusters: QQQ (5, 15, 20, 25, 30 BUY), TQQQ (5 BUY), DIA (20 BUY; 15, 25, 30 buy), XLK (15, 25, 30 buy), XLE (10 BUY; 20, 25 buy), XOP (20 BUY), XHS (20, 30 BUY), XES (30 BUY), XBI (30 buy), XLV (25 buy), GLD (30 buy), SPY (30 buy).
Bearish clusters: XOP SELL at 5 and 10 days against a 20-day BUY. XLV SELL at 15 and 20 days. GLD SELL at 5 days. XME SELL at 5 days. SPY SELL at 15 days. JNK SELL at 10 and 30 days. BND Sell at 20 and SELL at 30. KBE SELL at 30. XHB sell at 25 and SELL at 30. IJH Sell at 25 and 30. IWM sell at 15. UPRO Sell at 25.
Comparison to the September 19 Sheet
Last week the 5-day column was long XLE and XOP and short GLD and XME. The gold short paid. GLD fell from 401.17 to 393.41 (−1.93%). The metals short was noise: XME 108.68 to 108.33 (−0.32%). The energy longs did not pay. XOP −4.78%. XLE −3.53%. Those two 5-day BUYs from September 18 are scored below as ugly.
The new sheet rebuilt QQQ from a 25- and 30-day BUY into a five-horizon BUY and put TQQQ back on the long side at 5 days. It deleted the entire XLI 15- to 30-day stack. It flipped XOP from a 5-day BUY to a 5- and 10-day SELL. It flipped XLV from a 25-day buy / 30-day BUY into 15- and 20-day SELLs. It added a 15-day SPY SELL against the same 30-day buy. KBE returned as a 30-day SELL. XLB dropped off the All column in both directions. XRT stayed blank.
The Fed hike from September 17 is now two weeks in the tape. Yields made a new cycle high near 5.23% and then eased. Crude gave back the $100-plus print. The models responded by extending tech, shortening E&P in the front, shortening healthcare at 15–20 days, and taking industrials off the All column.
Consensus Signal Table
Green = buy. Red = sell. Bold capitals = all three model families (A, P, and N) agreed. Lowercase = All-column signal without a full three-way lock. Em dash = no signal.
| ETF | 5d | 10d | 15d | 20d | 25d | 30d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BND | — | — | — | sell | — | SELL |
| DIA | — | — | buy | BUY | buy | buy |
| GLD | SELL | — | — | — | — | buy |
| IJH | — | — | — | — | sell | sell |
| IWM | — | — | sell | — | — | — |
| JNK | — | SELL | — | — | — | SELL |
| KBE | — | — | — | — | — | SELL |
| QQQ | BUY | — | BUY | BUY | BUY | BUY |
| SPY | — | — | SELL | — | — | buy |
| TQQQ | BUY | — | — | — | — | — |
| UPRO | — | — | — | — | sell | — |
| URTY | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| XBI | — | — | — | — | — | buy |
| XES | — | — | — | — | — | BUY |
| XHB | — | — | — | — | sell | SELL |
| XHS | — | — | — | BUY | — | BUY |
| XLB | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| XLE | — | BUY | — | buy | buy | — |
| XLF | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| XLI | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| XLK | — | — | buy | — | buy | buy |
| XLP | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| XLRE | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| XLU | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| XLV | — | — | SELL | SELL | buy | — |
| XLY | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| XME | SELL | — | — | — | — | — |
| XOP | SELL | SELL | — | BUY | — | — |
| XRT | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Indicators behind the sheet include APO, DMI, MACD, MFI, Parabolic SAR, RSI, SMA crossovers, the Stochastic Momentum Indicator, Time Series Forecast, and the Ultimate Oscillator. The All column fires when the three internal families line up or when two fire and the third is blank. Back-test hit rates on this file run from about 0.59 on the 5-day GLD SELL to 0.90 on the 30-day DIA buy. Those are historical hit rates on the model, not promises.
Strong Consensus Trends & External Confirmation
QQQ 5-, 15-, 20-, 25-, and 30-day BUY / TQQQ 5-day BUY. Dow Jones via Morningstar (Sept. 25) put the Nasdaq Composite up 2.06% on the week to 27,068.72, the largest one-week gain since the week ending August 7, and off only 0.64% from Tuesday’s record close. That agrees with keeping QQQ long behind 15 days. It also agrees with the new 5-day QQQ BUY after a 3.19% week in the fund. Associated Press (Sept. 25) called this the first winning week in three for the major averages, with Nasdaq +2.1% and the S&P +1.2%. TQQQ closed 79.60, up 9.58% on the week. Last week’s 10-day TQQQ SELL from September 11 is scored below. It lost. The new 5-day TQQQ BUY is a fresh clock, not a roll of that miss.
XOP 5- and 10-day SELL against a 20-day BUY / XLE 10-day BUY. Reuters (Sept. 25) had WTI −2.3% Friday to $92.41 and down about 8% on the week after U.S. and Iranian negotiators discussed a phased reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Brent settled $104.32, −2.1% on the day. That tape matches the new XOP front-end shorts. It does not match last week’s 5-day energy BUYs, which closed ugly. The 20-day XOP BUY and the 10-day XLE BUY are reading a later window after the washout, not Friday’s print. Keep them on separate clocks.
GLD 5-day SELL against a 30-day buy. Kitco News (Sept. 25) had spot gold down more than 2% on the week and fighting $4,300 as the 10-year tagged a two-decade high near 5.20%. GLD closed 393.41 versus 401.17 last Friday (−1.93%). Last week’s 5-day GLD SELL paid. The new 5-day SELL is the same direction on a lower print. The 30-day buy is the opposite clock. Two trades.
XLV 15- and 20-day SELL. XLV rose 1.37% this week to 170.70 after last week’s 25-day buy / 30-day BUY. The new shorts sit against that bounce, not with it. Healthcare is not confirming the QQQ stack. Do not drag XLV onto the tech long.
XME 5-day SELL. XME closed 108.33 versus 108.68 last Friday (−0.32%) and 113.63 on September 11 (−4.66% over ten sessions). Last week’s 5-day SELL was flat. Last week’s 10-day XME BUY from September 11 is scored ugly below. The new 5-day SELL is the only metals print left on the All column.
SPY 15-day SELL against a 30-day buy / DIA 20-day BUY. SPY 771.35 is +1.27% on the week. The 15-day SELL is a mean-reversion call after that bounce, not a momentum call. DIA 517.49 is only +0.31% on the week. The 20-day DIA BUY is the leftover from last week’s broader Dow stack. XLI printed nothing.
JNK / BND / KBE SELL cluster. The 10-year near 5.18% after a 5.23% spike is the credit tape. Three-model JNK SELLs at 10 and 30 days, a BND SELL at 30 days, and a KBE SELL at 30 days are the rate call. XLF dropped off the All column after last week’s 30-day BUY. Banks are no longer the offset.
Strong Buy/Sell Call Highlights
Every All-column buy or sell published in prior weekly files is scored with session closes. Signal date is the last U.S. equity session before the CSV date. Horizon is trading days, not calendar days. Realized return is the price move in the direction of the call (positive = the call made money). Ratings: great = more than +2.0%; better = +0.5% to +2.0%; flat = between −0.5% and +0.5%; bad = −0.5% to −2.0%; ugly = worse than −2.0%.
Older files (summarized)
June 13 post (signal June 12): 57 matured. Great 13 / better 16 / flat 8 / bad 6 / ugly 14. Directed win rate (great+better vs bad+ugly): 59.2%.
July 3 post (signal July 2): 41 matured. Great 12 / better 9 / flat 3 / bad 8 / ugly 9. Directed win rate: 55.3%.
July 11 post (signal July 10): 43 matured. Great 11 / better 10 / flat 4 / bad 10 / ugly 8. Directed win rate: 53.8%.
July 18 post (signal July 17): 58 matured. Great 17 / better 12 / flat 7 / bad 9 / ugly 13. Directed win rate: 56.9%.
July 25 post (signal July 24): 56 matured. Great 17 / better 9 / flat 9 / bad 6 / ugly 15. Directed win rate: 55.3%.
August 1 post (signal July 31): 50 matured. Great 9 / better 6 / flat 9 / bad 7 / ugly 19. Directed win rate: 36.6% on decided trades.
August 8 post (signal August 7): 40 matured. Great 13 / better 12 / flat 4 / bad 7 / ugly 4. Directed win rate: 69.4%.
August 15 post (signal August 14): 21 matured. Great 3 / better 1 / flat 4 / bad 8 / ugly 5. Directed win rate: 23.5%.
August 22 post (signal August 21): 19 matured. Great 1 / better 9 / flat 5 / bad 2 / ugly 2. Directed win rate: 71.4%.
August 29 post (signal August 28): 5-day sleeve previously scored; longer prints from this file stay mixed as energy gave back part of the August spike into September.
Post dated September 5, 2026 (signal close September 4)
5-day and 10-day prints were scored in prior posts. The 15-day sleeve from this file matures on September 28 and stays open.
| ETF | Horizon | Signal | Realized Return | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | 10 | SELL | +1.10% | better |
| XRT | 10 | SELL | +6.36% | great |
| XLE | 10 | BUY | +0.39% | flat |
| XOP | 10 | BUY | −0.05% | flat |
| XLK | 10 | SELL | −1.24% | bad |
| XME | 10 | BUY | −8.38% | ugly |
Verified 10-day path September 4 → September 18: SPY 770.19 → 761.69; XRT 87.59 → 82.03; XLE 64.06 → 64.31; XOP 190.71 → 190.61; XLK 187.28 → 189.60; XME 118.62 → 108.68. XLK 10-day SELL is restated off the exact closes (prior post used the weekly path).
Post dated September 12, 2026 (signal close September 11)
5-day prints were scored last week. Newly matured this week: 10-day All-column prints. Longer horizons from this file remain open.
| ETF | Horizon | Signal | Realized Return | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| XRT | 5 | SELL | +3.26% | great |
| XLF | 5 | SELL | +2.43% | great |
| XLK | 5 | BUY | +1.03% | better |
| XOP | 5 | BUY | −2.61% | ugly |
| XES | 5 | BUY | −4.98% | ugly |
| XRT | 10 | SELL | +2.74% | great |
| TQQQ | 10 | SELL | −12.14% | ugly |
| XLE | 10 | BUY | −4.76% | ugly |
| XME | 10 | BUY | −4.66% | ugly |
| XOP | 10 | buy | −7.27% | ugly |
Verified 5-day path September 11 → September 18: XRT 84.79 → 82.03; XLF 57.25 → 55.86; XLK 187.67 → 189.60; XOP 195.72 → 190.61; XES 121.89 → 115.82. Verified 10-day path September 11 → September 25: XRT 84.79 → 82.47; TQQQ 70.98 → 79.60; XLE 65.14 → 62.04; XME 113.63 → 108.33; XOP 195.72 → 181.50.
Post dated September 19, 2026 (signal close September 18)
Newly matured: 5-day All-column prints only. Longer horizons from this file remain open.
| ETF | Horizon | Signal | Realized Return | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GLD | 5 | SELL | +1.93% | better |
| XME | 5 | SELL | +0.32% | flat |
| XLE | 5 | BUY | −3.53% | ugly |
| XOP | 5 | BUY | −4.78% | ugly |
Verified path September 18 → September 25: GLD 401.17 → 393.41; XME 108.68 → 108.33; XLE 64.31 → 62.04; XOP 190.61 → 181.50. SPY 761.69 → 771.35 (+1.27%) and QQQ 721.45 → 744.50 (+3.19%) are the tape behind the new QQQ stack. They were not 5-day All-column prints from this file.
Over the prior five published weeks that now have closed 5-day or 10-day prints, the retail shorts kept paying and the energy longs from September 11 and September 18 did not. The September 11 10-day TQQQ SELL was the worst print of the week (−12.14%). The September 18 5-day GLD SELL was the clean hit (+1.93%). Across every matured call since the June 13 file, last week’s running tally was 53.8% directed (183 wins, 157 losses, 58 flats on 398 matured). Adding this week’s verified hits (XRT 10-day SELL; GLD 5-day SELL) and misses (TQQQ, XLE, XME, and XOP 10-day from September 11; XLE and XOP 5-day from September 18), plus the XME 5-day flat, leaves the long-run directed book at 53.2% (185 wins, 163 losses, 59 flats on 407 matured). Still a coin flip on the short-horizon sleeve. Energy has now given back the early-September 5-day win and then some. Tech and leverage ran the other way from last week’s TQQQ short.
Recent hits worth owning in the record: XRT 5-day SELL from September 11 closed +3.26%; XRT 10-day SELL from September 11 closed +2.74%; XLF 5-day SELL from September 11 closed +2.43%; GLD 5-day SELL from September 18 closed +1.93%; SPY 10-day SELL from September 4 closed +1.10%. Recent misses: TQQQ 10-day SELL from September 11 closed −12.14%; XOP 10-day buy from September 11 closed −7.27%; XOP 5-day BUY from September 18 closed −4.78%; XES 5-day BUY from September 11 closed −4.98%; XLE 10-day BUY from September 11 closed −4.76%.
Nothing in this post is a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
— Stock Trends with Joe
