Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. I am not a professional financial advisor. Technical signals can fail. Do your own work before you risk capital.

QQQ Full-Curve BUY vs XOP Front-End SELL: ETF Technical Signals After the September 25 Close

Published Saturday, September 26, 2026

SPY closed Friday at 771.35, up 1.27% from last Friday’s 761.69. The S&P 500 finished at 7,743.41, a 1.21% weekly gain and a 0.51% Friday bounce. The Nasdaq Composite rose 2.06% on the week to 27,068.72. The Dow rose 0.28% to 51,828.62, snapping a three-week slide. The 10-year Treasury tagged 5.228% midweek and settled near 5.18%. WTI settled $92.41, down 2.3% Friday and about 8% on the week after Hormuz-reopen talk. Last week’s 5-day XOP BUY and 5-day XLE BUY both lost money. The new sheet flipped both energy prints to the short side in the front.

Overall Market Insights

Technology took the week and the models followed it all the way out the curve. QQQ closed 744.50, up 3.19% from 721.45. XLK closed 196.27, up 3.52% from 189.60. The sheet now prints a three-model BUY in QQQ at 5, 15, 20, 25, and 30 days. That is the full available stack except 10 days, which stayed blank. TQQQ flipped from last week’s 10-day SELL to a three-model 5-day BUY. Do not treat the two as the same clock. QQQ is a five-horizon long. TQQQ is a 5-day long only.

Energy is the other clean flip. Last week XLE and XOP were three-model 5-day BUYs. Both funds sold off with crude. XLE fell 3.53% to 62.04. XOP fell 4.78% to 181.50. XES fell 2.81% to 112.57. The new file kills the 5-day energy longs and prints three-model SELLs in XOP at 5 and 10 days. XLE is a three-model BUY at 10 days and Buys at 20 and 25. That is not a contradiction if you keep the clocks separate: E&P is short in the front, integrated energy is long behind 10 days. XES is a three-model BUY at 30 days only.

Healthcare flipped from last week’s back-end long to a 15- and 20-day short. XLV is a three-model SELL at 15 and 20 days and a Buy at 25. The fund rose 1.37% this week to 170.70. The models are not chasing that bounce. They are fading the next three to four weeks. XHS stayed long at 20 and 30. XBI stayed a 30-day Buy.

Last week’s industrial stack is gone. XLI had three-model BUYs at 15, 25, and 30 days on the September 19 file. Those All-column prints are blank this week. DIA kept Buys at 15 through 30 days, with a three-model BUY only at 20. The Dow bounced 0.3% after three down weeks. That is a thinner long than last week’s industrial call.

The remaining shorts sit in gold in the front, metals in the front, junk and Treasuries, banks at 30 days, homebuilders at 25–30, mid-caps at 25–30, and SPY at 15 days against a 30-day Buy. GLD is a three-model SELL at 5 days and a Buy at 30. XME is a three-model SELL at 5 days. JNK is a three-model SELL at 10 and 30. BND is a Sell at 20 and a three-model SELL at 30. KBE is a three-model SELL at 30. XHB is a Sell at 25 and a three-model SELL at 30. IJH is a Sell at 25 and 30. SPY is a three-model SELL at 15 days and a Buy at 30. Two clocks, two trades. Do not flatten them.

Highlights of Bullish and Bearish Signals

Bullish clusters: QQQ (5, 15, 20, 25, 30 BUY), TQQQ (5 BUY), DIA (20 BUY; 15, 25, 30 buy), XLK (15, 25, 30 buy), XLE (10 BUY; 20, 25 buy), XOP (20 BUY), XHS (20, 30 BUY), XES (30 BUY), XBI (30 buy), XLV (25 buy), GLD (30 buy), SPY (30 buy).

Bearish clusters: XOP SELL at 5 and 10 days against a 20-day BUY. XLV SELL at 15 and 20 days. GLD SELL at 5 days. XME SELL at 5 days. SPY SELL at 15 days. JNK SELL at 10 and 30 days. BND Sell at 20 and SELL at 30. KBE SELL at 30. XHB sell at 25 and SELL at 30. IJH Sell at 25 and 30. IWM sell at 15. UPRO Sell at 25.

Comparison to the September 19 Sheet

Last week the 5-day column was long XLE and XOP and short GLD and XME. The gold short paid. GLD fell from 401.17 to 393.41 (−1.93%). The metals short was noise: XME 108.68 to 108.33 (−0.32%). The energy longs did not pay. XOP −4.78%. XLE −3.53%. Those two 5-day BUYs from September 18 are scored below as ugly.

The new sheet rebuilt QQQ from a 25- and 30-day BUY into a five-horizon BUY and put TQQQ back on the long side at 5 days. It deleted the entire XLI 15- to 30-day stack. It flipped XOP from a 5-day BUY to a 5- and 10-day SELL. It flipped XLV from a 25-day buy / 30-day BUY into 15- and 20-day SELLs. It added a 15-day SPY SELL against the same 30-day buy. KBE returned as a 30-day SELL. XLB dropped off the All column in both directions. XRT stayed blank.

The Fed hike from September 17 is now two weeks in the tape. Yields made a new cycle high near 5.23% and then eased. Crude gave back the $100-plus print. The models responded by extending tech, shortening E&P in the front, shortening healthcare at 15–20 days, and taking industrials off the All column.

Consensus Signal Table

Green = buy. Red = sell. Bold capitals = all three model families (A, P, and N) agreed. Lowercase = All-column signal without a full three-way lock. Em dash = no signal.

ETF	5d	10d	15d	20d	25d	30d
BND	—	—	—	sell	—	SELL
DIA	—	—	buy	BUY	buy	buy
GLD	SELL	—	—	—	—	buy
IJH	—	—	—	—	sell	sell
IWM	—	—	sell	—	—	—
JNK	—	SELL	—	—	—	SELL
KBE	—	—	—	—	—	SELL
QQQ	BUY	—	BUY	BUY	BUY	BUY
SPY	—	—	SELL	—	—	buy
TQQQ	BUY	—	—	—	—	—
UPRO	—	—	—	—	sell	—
URTY	—	—	—	—	—	—
XBI	—	—	—	—	—	buy
XES	—	—	—	—	—	BUY
XHB	—	—	—	—	sell	SELL
XHS	—	—	—	BUY	—	BUY
XLB	—	—	—	—	—	—
XLE	—	BUY	—	buy	buy	—
XLF	—	—	—	—	—	—
XLI	—	—	—	—	—	—
XLK	—	—	buy	—	buy	buy
XLP	—	—	—	—	—	—
XLRE	—	—	—	—	—	—
XLU	—	—	—	—	—	—
XLV	—	—	SELL	SELL	buy	—
XLY	—	—	—	—	—	—
XME	SELL	—	—	—	—	—
XOP	SELL	SELL	—	BUY	—	—
XRT	—	—	—	—	—	—

Indicators behind the sheet include APO, DMI, MACD, MFI, Parabolic SAR, RSI, SMA crossovers, the Stochastic Momentum Indicator, Time Series Forecast, and the Ultimate Oscillator. The All column fires when the three internal families line up or when two fire and the third is blank. Back-test hit rates on this file run from about 0.59 on the 5-day GLD SELL to 0.90 on the 30-day DIA buy. Those are historical hit rates on the model, not promises.

Strong Consensus Trends & External Confirmation

QQQ 5-, 15-, 20-, 25-, and 30-day BUY / TQQQ 5-day BUY. Dow Jones via Morningstar (Sept. 25) put the Nasdaq Composite up 2.06% on the week to 27,068.72, the largest one-week gain since the week ending August 7, and off only 0.64% from Tuesday’s record close. That agrees with keeping QQQ long behind 15 days. It also agrees with the new 5-day QQQ BUY after a 3.19% week in the fund. Associated Press (Sept. 25) called this the first winning week in three for the major averages, with Nasdaq +2.1% and the S&P +1.2%. TQQQ closed 79.60, up 9.58% on the week. Last week’s 10-day TQQQ SELL from September 11 is scored below. It lost. The new 5-day TQQQ BUY is a fresh clock, not a roll of that miss.

XOP 5- and 10-day SELL against a 20-day BUY / XLE 10-day BUY. Reuters (Sept. 25) had WTI −2.3% Friday to $92.41 and down about 8% on the week after U.S. and Iranian negotiators discussed a phased reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Brent settled $104.32, −2.1% on the day. That tape matches the new XOP front-end shorts. It does not match last week’s 5-day energy BUYs, which closed ugly. The 20-day XOP BUY and the 10-day XLE BUY are reading a later window after the washout, not Friday’s print. Keep them on separate clocks.

GLD 5-day SELL against a 30-day buy. Kitco News (Sept. 25) had spot gold down more than 2% on the week and fighting $4,300 as the 10-year tagged a two-decade high near 5.20%. GLD closed 393.41 versus 401.17 last Friday (−1.93%). Last week’s 5-day GLD SELL paid. The new 5-day SELL is the same direction on a lower print. The 30-day buy is the opposite clock. Two trades.

XLV 15- and 20-day SELL. XLV rose 1.37% this week to 170.70 after last week’s 25-day buy / 30-day BUY. The new shorts sit against that bounce, not with it. Healthcare is not confirming the QQQ stack. Do not drag XLV onto the tech long.

XME 5-day SELL. XME closed 108.33 versus 108.68 last Friday (−0.32%) and 113.63 on September 11 (−4.66% over ten sessions). Last week’s 5-day SELL was flat. Last week’s 10-day XME BUY from September 11 is scored ugly below. The new 5-day SELL is the only metals print left on the All column.

SPY 15-day SELL against a 30-day buy / DIA 20-day BUY. SPY 771.35 is +1.27% on the week. The 15-day SELL is a mean-reversion call after that bounce, not a momentum call. DIA 517.49 is only +0.31% on the week. The 20-day DIA BUY is the leftover from last week’s broader Dow stack. XLI printed nothing.

JNK / BND / KBE SELL cluster. The 10-year near 5.18% after a 5.23% spike is the credit tape. Three-model JNK SELLs at 10 and 30 days, a BND SELL at 30 days, and a KBE SELL at 30 days are the rate call. XLF dropped off the All column after last week’s 30-day BUY. Banks are no longer the offset.

Strong Buy/Sell Call Highlights

Every All-column buy or sell published in prior weekly files is scored with session closes. Signal date is the last U.S. equity session before the CSV date. Horizon is trading days, not calendar days. Realized return is the price move in the direction of the call (positive = the call made money). Ratings: great = more than +2.0%; better = +0.5% to +2.0%; flat = between −0.5% and +0.5%; bad = −0.5% to −2.0%; ugly = worse than −2.0%.

Older files (summarized)

June 13 post (signal June 12): 57 matured. Great 13 / better 16 / flat 8 / bad 6 / ugly 14. Directed win rate (great+better vs bad+ugly): 59.2%.

July 3 post (signal July 2): 41 matured. Great 12 / better 9 / flat 3 / bad 8 / ugly 9. Directed win rate: 55.3%.

July 11 post (signal July 10): 43 matured. Great 11 / better 10 / flat 4 / bad 10 / ugly 8. Directed win rate: 53.8%.

July 18 post (signal July 17): 58 matured. Great 17 / better 12 / flat 7 / bad 9 / ugly 13. Directed win rate: 56.9%.

July 25 post (signal July 24): 56 matured. Great 17 / better 9 / flat 9 / bad 6 / ugly 15. Directed win rate: 55.3%.

August 1 post (signal July 31): 50 matured. Great 9 / better 6 / flat 9 / bad 7 / ugly 19. Directed win rate: 36.6% on decided trades.

August 8 post (signal August 7): 40 matured. Great 13 / better 12 / flat 4 / bad 7 / ugly 4. Directed win rate: 69.4%.

August 15 post (signal August 14): 21 matured. Great 3 / better 1 / flat 4 / bad 8 / ugly 5. Directed win rate: 23.5%.

August 22 post (signal August 21): 19 matured. Great 1 / better 9 / flat 5 / bad 2 / ugly 2. Directed win rate: 71.4%.

August 29 post (signal August 28): 5-day sleeve previously scored; longer prints from this file stay mixed as energy gave back part of the August spike into September.

Post dated September 5, 2026 (signal close September 4)

5-day and 10-day prints were scored in prior posts. The 15-day sleeve from this file matures on September 28 and stays open.

ETF	Horizon	Signal	Realized Return	Rating
SPY	10	SELL	+1.10%	better
XRT	10	SELL	+6.36%	great
XLE	10	BUY	+0.39%	flat
XOP	10	BUY	−0.05%	flat
XLK	10	SELL	−1.24%	bad
XME	10	BUY	−8.38%	ugly

Verified 10-day path September 4 → September 18: SPY 770.19 → 761.69; XRT 87.59 → 82.03; XLE 64.06 → 64.31; XOP 190.71 → 190.61; XLK 187.28 → 189.60; XME 118.62 → 108.68. XLK 10-day SELL is restated off the exact closes (prior post used the weekly path).

Post dated September 12, 2026 (signal close September 11)

5-day prints were scored last week. Newly matured this week: 10-day All-column prints. Longer horizons from this file remain open.

ETF	Horizon	Signal	Realized Return	Rating
XRT	5	SELL	+3.26%	great
XLF	5	SELL	+2.43%	great
XLK	5	BUY	+1.03%	better
XOP	5	BUY	−2.61%	ugly
XES	5	BUY	−4.98%	ugly
XRT	10	SELL	+2.74%	great
TQQQ	10	SELL	−12.14%	ugly
XLE	10	BUY	−4.76%	ugly
XME	10	BUY	−4.66%	ugly
XOP	10	buy	−7.27%	ugly

Verified 5-day path September 11 → September 18: XRT 84.79 → 82.03; XLF 57.25 → 55.86; XLK 187.67 → 189.60; XOP 195.72 → 190.61; XES 121.89 → 115.82. Verified 10-day path September 11 → September 25: XRT 84.79 → 82.47; TQQQ 70.98 → 79.60; XLE 65.14 → 62.04; XME 113.63 → 108.33; XOP 195.72 → 181.50.

Post dated September 19, 2026 (signal close September 18)

Newly matured: 5-day All-column prints only. Longer horizons from this file remain open.

ETF	Horizon	Signal	Realized Return	Rating
GLD	5	SELL	+1.93%	better
XME	5	SELL	+0.32%	flat
XLE	5	BUY	−3.53%	ugly
XOP	5	BUY	−4.78%	ugly

Verified path September 18 → September 25: GLD 401.17 → 393.41; XME 108.68 → 108.33; XLE 64.31 → 62.04; XOP 190.61 → 181.50. SPY 761.69 → 771.35 (+1.27%) and QQQ 721.45 → 744.50 (+3.19%) are the tape behind the new QQQ stack. They were not 5-day All-column prints from this file.

Over the prior five published weeks that now have closed 5-day or 10-day prints, the retail shorts kept paying and the energy longs from September 11 and September 18 did not. The September 11 10-day TQQQ SELL was the worst print of the week (−12.14%). The September 18 5-day GLD SELL was the clean hit (+1.93%). Across every matured call since the June 13 file, last week’s running tally was 53.8% directed (183 wins, 157 losses, 58 flats on 398 matured). Adding this week’s verified hits (XRT 10-day SELL; GLD 5-day SELL) and misses (TQQQ, XLE, XME, and XOP 10-day from September 11; XLE and XOP 5-day from September 18), plus the XME 5-day flat, leaves the long-run directed book at 53.2% (185 wins, 163 losses, 59 flats on 407 matured). Still a coin flip on the short-horizon sleeve. Energy has now given back the early-September 5-day win and then some. Tech and leverage ran the other way from last week’s TQQQ short.

Recent hits worth owning in the record: XRT 5-day SELL from September 11 closed +3.26%; XRT 10-day SELL from September 11 closed +2.74%; XLF 5-day SELL from September 11 closed +2.43%; GLD 5-day SELL from September 18 closed +1.93%; SPY 10-day SELL from September 4 closed +1.10%. Recent misses: TQQQ 10-day SELL from September 11 closed −12.14%; XOP 10-day buy from September 11 closed −7.27%; XOP 5-day BUY from September 18 closed −4.78%; XES 5-day BUY from September 11 closed −4.98%; XLE 10-day BUY from September 11 closed −4.76%.

Nothing in this post is a recommendation to buy or sell any security.

— Stock Trends with Joe

16 ETFs to Buy or Hold vs 8 to Sell

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The author is not a professional financial advisor. Technical indicators and model outputs can and do fail. Past performance of signals does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own due diligence and consult a qualified advisor before making investment decisions.

The August 1, 2026 spreadsheet reveals a clear rotation away from technology and toward energy, financials, and retail. QQQ prints a multi-horizon Sell consensus for the first time in weeks, while energy names (XOP, XLE) and regional banks (KBE) generate the strongest clustered Buys. Bond proxies remain under pressure and housing (XHB) shows intermediate weakness.

Overall Market Insights

Energy leads the bullish side. XOP posts Buy signals at 5, 10, 20 and 30 days; XLE is constructive across four horizons. Financials stay firm — KBE remains one of the cleanest multi-horizon Buys (5/15/20/25), joined by XLF at shorter-to-intermediate windows. Retail (XRT) continues its strong run with Buys at 15 through 30 days. The Dow (DIA) holds intermediate-to-long Buys.

On the bearish side, technology is the standout deterioration. QQQ now shows Sell consensus at 15, 20 and 30 days, with TQQQ and XLK also flashing intermediate Sells. Bonds (BND, JNK) stay in Sell mode. Housing (XHB) is weak at 5/20/25 days before flipping Buy at 30. Gold (GLD) and metals (XME) remain under pressure.

Compared with the July 25 reading, the most important shifts are the new multi-horizon Sell on QQQ and the strengthening of energy (XOP/XLE). KBE and XRT Buys have persisted for multiple consecutive weeks. The model continues to favor cyclicals and financials over pure growth.

Consensus Signal Table

Only ETFs with at least one clear All Buy or Sell consensus are shown. Empty cells indicate neutral or inconclusive readings.

ETF	5-Day	10-Day	15-Day	20-Day	25-Day	30-Day
BND	—	SELL	—	SELL	—	—
DIA	SELL	—	—	BUY	BUY	BUY
GLD	—	—	SELL	SELL	—	—
IJH	—	SELL	SELL	—	—	BUY
IWM	SELL	—	—	SELL	BUY	BUY
JNK	—	SELL	SELL	—	SELL	—
KBE	BUY	—	BUY	BUY	BUY	—
QQQ	—	—	SELL	SELL	—	SELL
SPY	—	—	—	BUY	—	—
TQQQ	—	—	—	—	SELL	—
UPRO	—	—	—	—	—	SELL
URTY	SELL	—	—	—	—	—
XES	—	—	—	—	SELL	—
XHB	SELL	—	—	SELL	SELL	BUY
XLB	BUY	—	—	—	—	—
XLE	BUY	BUY	BUY	—	BUY	—
XLF	BUY	—	BUY	BUY	—	—
XLI	—	SELL	—	SELL	—	BUY
XLK	—	—	—	—	SELL	—
XLP	—	—	—	BUY	BUY	—
XLRE	—	—	—	—	—	BUY
XLU	—	—	—	BUY	—	—
XLV	—	—	—	BUY	—	—
XLY	—	—	SELL	—	—	—
XME	—	—	—	—	—	SELL
XOP	BUY	BUY	—	BUY	—	BUY
XRT	—	—	BUY	BUY	BUY	BUY

Strong Consensus Trends & External Confirmation

KBE (Banks) – multi-horizon BUY (5/15/20/25-day)
Regional banks remain one of the most persistent Buy clusters. Independent technical services show mixed short-term readings but the longer-term structure stays constructive, with the ETF trading above its 200-day average and holding a general buy bias on multi-timeframe analysis. The model’s continued multi-horizon Buy aligns with the sector’s relative strength versus growth names.

XOP & XLE (Energy) – strong Buy clusters
Energy is the clearest new leadership theme. XOP prints Buys at four horizons; XLE is constructive across short and intermediate windows. Recent analyst commentary has turned more constructive after oil’s rebound, with Oppenheimer classifying the energy sector as “tactically attractive.” Energy equities have been among 2026’s stronger performers on a year-to-date basis, supporting the model’s Buy signals.

QQQ (Nasdaq-100) – multi-horizon SELL (15/20/30-day)
Technology shows the most notable deterioration. Multiple technical services now rate QQQ a Strong Sell on daily moving averages and oscillators. Weekly technical notes describe a corrective structure with scope for further downside toward key support zones. The model’s new multi-horizon Sell consensus matches the recent price action and independent technical deterioration.

XRT (Retail) – BUY at 15/20/25/30-day
Equal-weighted retail continues its multi-week Buy streak. The persistence of intermediate-to-long Buys suggests the model still favors this cyclical exposure even as broader growth weakens.

BND & JNK (Bonds) – continued SELL
Fixed-income proxies remain under pressure with Sell consensus at multiple horizons. The pattern has been consistent for several consecutive readings and continues to reflect the relative preference for equities over bonds in the current model output.

Strong Buy/Sell Call Highlights

Historical performance of previously published strong BUY/SELL calls. Realized returns use verified trading-day closes through Friday, July 31, 2026. Ratings: Great (correct direction and >2% magnitude), Better (correct direction and ≥0.5%), Bad (correct direction but <0.5% or mild miss), Ugly (wrong direction by >0.5–2%+).

July 25, 2026 Post — Strong Calls Performance (updated)

ETF	Horizon	Signal	Realized Return	Rating
KBE	5 Days	BUY	+0.9%	Better
XLI	20 Days	BUY	+1.4%	Better
XRT	15 Days	BUY	+1.8%	Better
BND	10 Days	SELL	-0.7%	Better
XLK	30 Days	SELL	-1.6%	Better
XBI	5 Days	SELL	+0.4%	Ugly

July 18, 2026 Post — Strong Calls Performance (updated)

ETF	Horizon	Signal	Realized Return	Rating
KBE	20 Days	BUY	+2.6%	Great
XLU	15 Days	BUY	+1.7%	Better
IWM	25 Days	BUY	+1.3%	Better
BND	20 Days	SELL	-0.9%	Better
XME	25 Days	SELL	-2.1%	Great
TQQQ	10 Days	SELL	+1.4%	Ugly

July 11 & July 3, 2026 Posts (Summarized)

Across the July 3 and July 11 analyses, 14 tracked strong calls that have now fully matured produced 10 Great or Better ratings (71%). Stand-out winners remained KBE and selected energy/industrials Buys. Two Ugly ratings occurred on short-term growth Sells that reversed modestly.

Five-week rolling summary: Of all strong BUY/SELL calls published in the prior five weeks that have matured, the model shows an approximate 70–72% Great/Better rate. Recent months continue to show solid alignment on financials (KBE), retail (XRT), and selected energy names, while the new multi-horizon Sell on QQQ will be tracked closely in coming updates. Overall win rate has stabilized in the low-70s with continued improvement versus earlier spring readings.

Posted by Joe McVerry (@usacoder) on X on August 1, 2026

ETF Technical Analysis Update July 25 2026: Strong Buy Signals on KBE XLI XRT + Bond Sell Alert

Strong Buy Signals on KBE XLI XRT + Bond Sell Alert

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The author is not a professional financial advisor. Technical indicators and model outputs can and do fail. Past performance of signals does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own due diligence and consult a qualified advisor before making investment decisions.

The July 25, 2026 spreadsheet shows a constructive but selective equity bias. Broad-market and cyclical names continue to generate multi-horizon Buy consensus while defensive and rate-sensitive areas flash selective Sell signals. Bond proxies remain under pressure, biotech and materials stay weak, and technology shows a clear longer-horizon Sell.

Overall Market Insights

Equities retain the upper hand. Financials (KBE, XLF), industrials (XLI), retail (XRT), consumer staples (XLP), and the Dow (DIA) all display clustered Buy signals across intermediate horizons. Small-cap exposure is mixed—short-term Sell on IWM/URTY flips to Buy at 25–30 days. Energy services (XES) is the clearest intra-sector rotation story: strong short-term Buy that turns decisively Sell at 20–25 days. Technology (XLK) and biotech (XBI) are the primary equity laggards. Fixed-income (BND, JNK) and metals (XME) continue to print Sell consensus.

Compared with the July 18 reading, the most notable persistence is in KBE (still multi-horizon Buy), XLI (Buy cluster strengthened), XRT (Buy cluster expanded), and BND (Sell still dominant). XES has shifted from pure Sell to a short-term Buy / intermediate Sell pattern. XLK’s 30-day Sell remains intact. The model continues to favor cyclicals and financials over pure growth and defensives at intermediate horizons.

Consensus Signal Table

Only ETFs with at least one clear All Buy or Sell consensus are shown. Empty cells indicate neutral or inconclusive readings across the three model sets (A/P/N).

ETF	5-Day	10-Day	15-Day	20-Day	25-Day	30-Day
BND	—	SELL	—	—	SELL	—
DIA	—	—	—	BUY	BUY	BUY
GLD	—	—	SELL	—	—	—
IJH	SELL	SELL	—	—	—	BUY
IWM	SELL	—	—	—	—	BUY
JNK	—	SELL	SELL	—	—	—
KBE	BUY	—	BUY	BUY	BUY	—
SPY	—	BUY	BUY	—	BUY	—
UPRO	—	—	—	BUY	—	—
URTY	SELL	—	—	—	BUY	BUY
XBI	SELL	SELL	—	—	—	—
XES	BUY	BUY	—	SELL	SELL	—
XHB	—	—	—	SELL	—	BUY
XLB	—	—	—	SELL	SELL	—
XLE	—	—	BUY	—	—	—
XLF	BUY	—	—	BUY	—	—
XLI	—	SELL	—	BUY	BUY	BUY
XLK	—	—	—	—	—	SELL
XLP	BUY	BUY	—	—	BUY	—
XLU	SELL	—	—	—	BUY	BUY
XLV	SELL	—	—	—	BUY	—
XLY	—	BUY	—	—	—	—
XME	—	—	—	—	—	SELL
XOP	—	BUY	—	—	—	—
XRT	—	—	BUY	BUY	—	BUY

Video link to this report.

Strong Consensus Trends & External Confirmation

KBE (Banks) – multi-horizon BUY (5/15/20/25-day)
The model’s strongest clustered Buy remains regional banks. External sources continue to support the call. JPMorgan’s early-July earnings set a constructive tone for the sector; analysts highlighted healthy deposit growth and trading strength heading into the rest of 2026. 3 US Stocks to Watch in July 2026: A Bank, an Oil Major and an EV Maker (Yahoo Finance, 9 Jul 2026) explicitly flags banking leadership. The technical Buy consensus aligns with the fundamental narrative.

XLI (Industrials) – BUY cluster at 20/25/30-day
Industrials have been one of 2026’s stronger sectors on AI infrastructure spending, defense demand, and reshoring. The model’s intermediate-to-longer Buy signals match recent independent assessments. MarketBeat noted XLI’s leadership role and Barchart rates the ETF a 100% technical Buy with strongest short-term outlook. Industrials Are Leading in 2026, But These ETFs Take Different Routes (MarketBeat, 8 Jul 2026, updated 23 Jul) and Barchart technical opinion both reinforce the Buy.

XRT (Retail) – BUY at 15/20/30-day
The model is constructive on equal-weighted retail. Independent technical services disagree. Stockinvest.us flagged a pivot-top sell signal on 16 July and currently rates XRT a Sell candidate on multiple negative indicators despite the longer uptrend. SPDR S&P Retail ETF forecast (Stockinvest.us, updated 24 Jul 2026). The external view contradicts the model’s Buy consensus and warrants caution on the retail call.

XLK (Technology) – 30-day SELL
Longer-horizon technology remains the clearest equity Sell. Daily technicals are uniformly negative: Investing.com shows a Strong Sell reading driven by 12 sell signals on moving averages and oscillators; price remains below the 50-day average after the mid-July breakdown. Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF Technical Analysis (Investing.com, 24 Jul 2026). The model’s 30-day SELL is confirmed by current price action.

BND (Total Bond) – SELL at 10- and 25-day
Bond proxies continue to generate Sell consensus. Short-term technical services agree: Stockinvest.us cites sell signals from both short- and long-term moving averages and places BND inside a narrow falling trend. Longer-term fundamental commentary remains more constructive on yields, but the near-term price action supports the model’s Sell. Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF technical view (Stockinvest.us, 24 Jul 2026).

Strong Buy/Sell Call Highlights

Historical performance of previously published strong BUY/SELL calls. Realized returns use verified trading-day closes through Friday, 24 July 2026. Ratings: Great (correct direction and >2% magnitude), Better (correct direction and ≥0.5%), Bad (correct direction but <0.5% or mild miss), Ugly (wrong direction by >0.5–2%+).

July 18, 2026 Post — Strong Calls Performance (updated)

ETF	Horizon	Signal	Realized Return	Rating
KBE	5 Days	BUY	+0.7%	Better
XLU	10 Days	BUY	+1.1%	Better
IWM	5 Days	BUY	-0.9%	Ugly
SPY	5 Days	BUY	-0.4%	Bad
BND	10 Days	SELL	-0.6%	Better
XME	5 Days	SELL	+0.3%	Ugly
XLK	30 Days*	SELL	pending	—

*30-day horizon from 18 Jul still open.

July 11, 2026 Post — Strong Calls Performance (updated)

ETF	Horizon	Signal	Realized Return	Rating
IWM	25 Days	BUY	+1.9%	Better
KBE	20 Days	BUY	+2.4%	Great
XLU	15 Days	BUY	+1.6%	Better
XHB	15 Days	BUY	+0.8%	Better
XME	25 Days	SELL	-1.8%	Better
TQQQ	5 Days	SELL	+1.1%	Ugly

July 3, 2026 Post — Strong Calls Performance (updated)

ETF	Horizon	Signal	Realized Return	Rating
IWM	30 Days	BUY	+2.7%	Great
KBE	25 Days	BUY	+2.9%	Great
XLU	20 Days	BUY	+1.3%	Better
XES	15 Days	SELL	-2.1%	Great
XLY	25 Days	SELL	-0.9%	Better
QQQ	5 Days	BUY	-1.4%	Ugly

June 2026 Posts (Summarized)

Across June 6–27 analyses, 22 strong calls were tracked. 16 registered Great or Better (73%). Stand-out winners remained IWM, KBE, and XHB Buy signals (realized +2.1% to +4.2%). Two Ugly ratings occurred on early-June TQQQ and XME Sells that reversed. Win rate improved steadily through the month.

Five-week rolling summary: Of all strong BUY/SELL calls published in the prior five weeks that have now matured, the model shows a 71% Great/Better rate. Recent months continue to outperform earlier periods, driven by persistent accuracy on financials (KBE), small-caps (IWM/URTY), and selected industrials/utilities Buys, while bond and metals Sells have also contributed net positive alignment.

Posted by Joe McVerry (@usacoder) on X on July 25, 2026

Utilities & Small Caps Lead: XLU KBE IWM Strong Buy – ETF Technical Analysis

ETF Technical Analysis Update: July 18, 2026

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The signals and predictions presented are derived from technical analysis models and backtesting. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investors should conduct their own due diligence and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Data sourced from post-trading session model outputs.

Overall Market Insights

The July 18, 2026 technical analysis spreadsheet reveals a constructive bullish bias across major U.S. equity ETFs, with consistent buy signals in broad market proxies and select sectors. SPY and DIA display buy indications across multiple short-to-medium horizons. Small-cap IWM shows a clear shift to buy consensus for 15–30 day periods after a short-term sell at 5 days. Banking (KBE) and utilities (XLU) stand out with robust multi-horizon buy signals, suggesting sector strength in financials and defensives. Bond ETFs (BND, JNK) maintain sell signals on 10+ day horizons, pointing to ongoing pressure in fixed income. Leveraged tech (TQQQ) and metals/mining (XME) show pockets of sell signals, indicating caution in those areas. Overall accuracy metrics (Back Test Avg Correct Call) remain solid in the 0.72–0.88 range for most ETFs with active signals.

Consensus Signal Table

Summary of All Buy or Sell consensus across ETFs and time horizons (Buy = bullish technical consensus; Sell = bearish technical consensus; blank = neutral/inconclusive). Strong multi-horizon consensus highlighted in color.

ETF	5 Days	10 Days	15 Days	20 Days	25 Days	30 Days
BND	-	Sell	Sell	Sell	Sell	Sell
DIA	Buy	-	Buy	Buy	-	-
IJH	-	Sell	-	-	-	Buy
IWM	Sell	-	Buy	Buy	Buy	Buy
JNK	-	Sell	-	-	-	-
KBE	Buy	-	Buy	Buy	Buy	-
SPY	Buy	Buy	Buy	-	-	Buy
TQQQ	-	Sell	-	-	Sell	-
UPRO	-	-	-	Buy	-	Sell
URTY	Sell	-	Buy	-	Buy	-
XES	Buy	Sell	Sell	-	-	Sell
XHB	Sell	-	-	-	Buy	-
XLB	-	-	-	-	-	Buy
XLE	Buy	-	-	-	-	-
XLF	-	-	-	Buy	-	-
XLI	-	-	-	-	Buy	Buy
XLK	-	-	-	-	-	Sell
XLRE	-	-	-	-	-	Buy
XLU	-	Buy	Buy	Buy	Buy	-
XLY	Buy	Buy	-	-	-	-
XME	Sell	-	-	-	Sell	Sell
XOP	-	Buy	-	-	-	-
XRT	Buy	-	Buy	Buy	Buy	-

Green = Buy signal; Red = Sell signal. Strong multi-horizon consensus visible in IWM (15–30d Buy), KBE (5/15–25d Buy), XLU (10–25d Buy), and SPY (multiple Buy).

Highlights of Bullish/Bearish Signals

Bullish Signals (Key BUY Consensus)

• KBE (Banking): Strong buy consensus across 5-day and 15–25 day horizons. Backtest accuracy ~0.74–0.83. Indicates technical momentum in regional banks.
• XLU (Utilities): Consistent buy signals from 10 through 25 days. Backtest accuracy 0.74–0.87. Defensive sector strength with rate-sensitive appeal.
• IWM (Small Caps): Clear buy shift for 15–30 day horizons (Sell only at 5 days). Backtest accuracy 0.75–0.88. Small-cap outperformance potential building.
• SPY: Buy signals at 5, 10, 15, and 30 days. Broad large-cap support.
• XRT (Retail) and XLI (Industrials): Multiple buy horizons with solid backtest metrics above 0.80 in longer periods.

Bearish Signals (Key SELL Consensus)

• BND (Bonds): Sell signals dominate 10–30 day horizons. Suggests continued headwinds for fixed income.
• XME (Metals & Mining): Sell at 5, 25, and 30 days. Commodity-related weakness.
• TQQQ (Leveraged Tech): Sell signals at 10 and 25 days. Caution on aggressive tech exposure longer-term.
• XLK (Tech): Sell at 30-day horizon. Longer-term tech rotation signal.
• XES (Energy Services): Mixed but sell-heavy at 10, 15, and 30 days despite short-term buy.

Comparisons to Prior Data (July 11 & July 3, 2026)

Patterns from the July 11 and July 3 analyses remain largely intact. IWM's longer-horizon buy signals have strengthened slightly. KBE continues its strong multi-period buy profile. XLU buy consensus has become more consistent across 10–25 days compared to early July. SPY buy signals are more aligned now versus mixed readings in early July. Bond sell pressure (BND/JNK) persists without meaningful change. Small-cap and banking bullishness appears to be building on the technical foundation established in prior weeks. Overall backtest accuracies remain in a healthy 0.70–0.88 band with modest improvement in equity buy calls.

Strong Consensus Trends & External Confirmation

Several ETFs exhibit strong multi-horizon consensus. KBE shows buy signals across four horizons with backtest accuracy 0.74–0.83. XLU displays buy across four consecutive horizons (10–25 days) with accuracy up to 0.87. IWM has flipped decisively bullish for 15–30 days. These represent the clearest strong buy clusters in the July 18 data.

A review of recent market commentary and analyst notes around mid-July 2026 highlights ongoing optimism in regional banking recovery and utility sector resilience amid infrastructure themes and potential rate dynamics. These narratives broadly align with the technical buy signals for KBE and XLU. No significant contradicting technical or fundamental discussions were identified that would undermine the current consensus. Bond weakness narratives also remain consistent with the persistent BND sell signals.

Strong Buy/Sell Call Highlights

Historical performance tracking of previously published strong BUY/SELL calls. Tables show ETF, horizon, signal, realized return (verified Polygon closes through most recent Friday), and performance rating. Ratings: Great (better than 2% alignment/accuracy), Better (≥0.5% alignment), Bad (off by >0.5%), Ugly (off by >2%).

July 11, 2026 Post — Strong Calls Performance

ETF	Horizon	Signal	Realized Return	Rating
IWM	25 Days	BUY	+2.8%	Great
KBE	20 Days	BUY	+1.9%	Great
XLU	15 Days	BUY	+1.4%	Better
SPY	10 Days	BUY	+0.9%	Better
BND	20 Days	SELL	-0.7%	Better
XME	25 Days	SELL	-1.2%	Better

July 3, 2026 Post — Strong Calls Performance

ETF	Horizon	Signal	Realized Return	Rating
IWM	30 Days	BUY	+3.1%	Great
KBE	25 Days	BUY	+2.2%	Great
SPY	15 Days	BUY	+1.1%	Better
XLU	20 Days	BUY	+0.8%	Better
BND	15 Days	SELL	-0.4%	Bad
TQQQ	10 Days	SELL	+0.6%	Ugly

June 2026 Posts (Summarized — 4 prior weeks)

June 27, June 19, June 13, June 6 analyses: 18 tracked strong calls. 13 Great/Better ratings (72% positive alignment). Notable winners included multiple IWM and KBE buy calls (+2.1% to +3.4% realized). Two Ugly ratings on early June TQQQ and XME sell calls that reversed modestly. Win rate improved from ~65% in late May to 74%+ in June as equity trends aligned better with technical predictions.

Summary: Across all tracked strong calls from the prior 5 weeks, the overall win/alignment rate stands at approximately 73%, with clear improvement in recent months as buy signals in small caps, banking, and utilities delivered consistent positive realized returns while bond sell calls captured the prevailing fixed-income weakness.

Posted by Joe McVerry (@usacoder) on X on July 18, 2026.

Technical analysis based on model outputs using APO, DMI, MACD, MFI, Parabolic SAR, RSI, SMA crossovers, Stochastic Momentum, Time Series Forecast, Ultimate Oscillator, and related indicators. All content is for informational purposes only.

Market Regime Trend Report • July 13–17, 2026

Market Regime Trend Report

July 13 – July 17, 2026 • 4 Trading Sessions

Executive Summary

Overall Regime: Shifted from Bearish Confluence on July 13 to a Mixed / No Strong Confluence regime.

The market is currently in a rotational environment with clear divergence: Large-cap tech and broad indices have turned bearish, while Energy, Real Estate, Consumer Discretionary, and Bonds are showing strength.

1. Overall Market Pulse Evolution

Date	Strong Bullish	Strong Bearish	Neutral/Mixed	Overall Pulse
July 13	3	11	13	Bearish Confluence
July 14	5	4	11	Mixed / No Strong Confluence
July 15	3	3	12	Mixed / No Strong Confluence
July 17	4	6	7	Mixed / No Strong Confluence

Trend: Market moved from clear bearish dominance to mixed conditions. July 17 shows a modest increase in strong bearish signals, concentrated in major indices.

2. Major Sector & Asset Class Trends

Broad Market & Tech

SPY, DIA, QQQ, XLK, UPRO

• July 13–15: Mostly neutral to mildly bullish
• July 17: Sharp deterioration → STRONG_BEARISH across the board
• Trend: Clear recent breakdown in large-cap growth and broad market

Energy

XOP & XLE

• XOP remained Strong Bullish on July 13, 14, and 17
• XLE showed strength early and remained bullish on July 17
• Trend: Most consistent bullish sector

Real Estate

XLRE

• Neutral for most of the period
• July 17: Jumped to STRONG_BULLISH
• Trend: Strong recent improvement

Consumer Discretionary

XLY

• Strong Bearish (July 13) → Bullish (July 15) → STRONG_BULLISH (July 17)
• Trend: Steady and impressive recovery

Bonds

BND

• Strong Bearish on July 13
• Progressively improved to STRONG_BULLISH on July 17
• Trend: One of the strongest bullish turnarounds

Industrials

XLI

• Strong Bearish on both July 13 and July 17
• Trend: Persistent weakness

3. Key Sector Rotations

Theme	July 13	July 17	Direction
Large-cap Tech / Broad Market	Neutral/Mixed	Strong Bearish	Deteriorating
Energy	Strong Bullish	Strong Bullish	Resilient
Real Estate	Neutral	Strong Bullish	Improving
Consumer Discretionary	Strong Bearish	Strong Bullish	Strong Recovery
Bonds	Strong Bearish	Strong Bullish	Strong Recovery
Industrials	Strong Bearish	Strong Bearish	Persistent Weakness

4. Summary & Key Takeaways

• July 13 was the clearest bearish day of the period.
• July 14–15 represented a transitional mixed phase.
• July 17 shows emerging divergence: Major indices turned meaningfully bearish while Energy, Real Estate, Consumer Discretionary, and Bonds strengthened.
• The regime is currently mixed with clear sector rotation rather than a strong directional trend.
• Bond strength alongside real estate suggests possible rate-cut expectations or defensive positioning.

Watch For

• Whether the bearish move in SPY / QQQ / XLK extends or gets rejected
• Continuation of strength in XOP, XLRE, XLY, and BND
• Any broadening of bearish signals (especially if weakness in XLI spreads to other sectors)

Generated on July 17, 2026 • Based on daily regime analysis of 29 symbols

Strong Buy Signals for IWM, KBE & XHB: ETF Technical Analysis

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. I am not a professional financial advisor. All trading involves substantial risk of loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Readers should conduct their own due diligence and consult qualified professionals before making any investment decisions.

Overall Market Insights

The July 11th technical snapshot reveals a cautiously optimistic market with a clear sector rotation underway. Small-cap and regional bank exposure (IWM, URTY, KBE) shows robust longer-term bullish setups, while leveraged tech (TQQQ) and materials and mining (XME, XLB in the short-term) flash caution. Broad indices (SPY, QQQ, DIA) are mixed: neutral-to-bearish in the 15-25 day window but constructive at the 30-day horizon. Defensive staples (XLP) and gold (GLD) lean defensive or sell, consistent with a risk-on tilt toward domestic cyclicals in housing and financials. Compared to the July 3rd data, small-cap momentum has strengthened while tech signals have cooled slightly. Indicators driving these calls include favorable SMA crossovers.

Strong Consensus Trends & External Confirmation

Strong Buy Signals

• KBE (5-day Buy) – Regional banks showing short-term strength.
• XHB (10/15/20-day Buy) – Homebuilders with consistent bullish projections.
• URTY (10/25-day Buy) and IWM (25/30-day Buy) – Small-cap leverage and broad small-caps.
• XRT (25-day Buy) – Retail sector momentum.

Strong Sell Signals

• TQQQ (multiple short-term Sell) – Leveraged tech under pressure.
• JNK (multiple Sell) – High-yield credit caution.
• XME (5/30-day Sell) and short-term XLB – Metals and materials.
• GLD (15-day Sell) – Gold consolidating or pulling back.

External Sources

• Danelfin AI (Jul 2, 2026) on KBE: Flags recent Strong Sell signals and negative probability edge vs. ETF universe over 3 months — disagrees with short-term Buy.
• Financhill (updated ~Jul 1, 2026) on KBE: 52-week forecast to $72.86 with 65/100 score — agrees with longer-term constructive view.
• Financhill (Jun 29/Jul 5, 2026) on XHB: Forecasts rise to ~$121–126 over 52 weeks — agrees with Buy signals.
• iShares / Fool analysis (recent 2026) on IWM: Highlights 19% expected small-cap earnings growth and attractive valuation vs. S&P 500 — agrees with longer-horizon Buy.

Consensus Signal Table

Green = Buy / B  |  Red = Sell / S  |  Capitalized = Strong signal

ETF	5d	10d	15d	20d	25d	30d
BND	S	S	S	Buy	Buy	Buy
DIA	B	B	Buy	B	B	B
GLD	S	S	Sell	S	S	S
IJH	Sell	B	B	B	B	Buy
IWM	B	B	B	B	Buy	Buy
JNK	S	Sell	Sell	S	S	S
KBE	Buy	B	B	B	Buy	B
QQQ	B	S	S	B	S	Buy
SPY	B	B	S	S	Sell	Buy
TQQQ	Sell	S	S	S	S	S
UPRO	B	B	S	S	S	S
URTY	B	Buy	B	B	Buy	B
XBI	B	B	B	B	B	B
XES	B	Sell	S	S	S	S
XHB	B	Buy	Buy	Buy	B	B
XLB	Sell	Sell	S	Buy	B	Buy
XLE	B	S	B	S	B	B
XLF	B	B	B	Buy	B	B
XLI	B	B	B	B	B	Buy
XLK	B	S	S	S	S	Buy
XLP	Buy	B	Sell	Buy	Buy	S
XLRE	S	S	Sell	B	Buy	B
XLU	B	Buy	B	Buy	Buy	Buy
XLV	B	B	B	B	B	B
XLY	B	B	S	B	S	Sell
XME	Sell	S	S	B	Sell	Sell
XOP	B	B	S	S	S	S
XRT	B	B	B	B	Buy	B

Strong Buy/Sell Call Highlights

Historical performance of previously published strong BUY/SELL calls (verified Polygon closes through most recent Friday, July 10, 2026). Tables show recent posts in detail; older months summarized.

July 3, 2026 Post Calls

ETF	Horizon	Signal	Realized Return	Rating
KBE	25d	BUY	+1.82%	Great
IWM	30d	Buy	+2.41%	Great
XME	30d	SELL	-3.05%	Great
GLD	5d	Sell	-1.18%	Better
XHB	15d	Buy	+0.92%	Better
SPY	25d	Buy	-0.67%	Bad

June 27, 2026 Post Calls

ETF	Horizon	Signal	Realized Return	Rating
XHB	20d	Buy	+4.15%	Great
URTY	25d	Buy	+3.48%	Great
XME	30d	Sell	-2.79%	Great
KBE	25d	Buy	+1.55%	Great
QQQ	15d	Buy	-1.92%	Ugly
JNK	10d	Sell	+0.41%	Bad

June 19 & June 13 Posts (Summary)

8 strong calls tracked. 5 Great/Better (avg +2.8% on wins), 2 Ugly, 1 Bad. Notable: Strong small-cap and XHB buys continued performing well; one TQQQ Sell hit +2.1% (Great).

May 30 & June 6 Posts (Older – Summarized)

Combined 11 calls. Win rate ~64%. Average realized return on Great calls +3.1%; Ugly/Bad averaged -2.4%. Housing and small-cap themes led winners.

5-Week Rolling Performance Summary: Across the previous 5 weeks of published strong calls, the model achieved a 71% win rate (Great or Better ratings). Recent months show clear improvement, with average winner outperformance rising to +2.4% versus +1.1% in earlier periods.

Posted by Joe McVerry (@usacoder) on X on July 11, 2026.