Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. I am not a professional financial advisor. Technical signals can fail. Do your own work before you risk capital.
Gold Flips to a 10-Day BUY After a Paid Short: ETF Technical Signals After the October 2 Close
Published Saturday, October 3, 2026
SPY closed Friday at 769.64, down 0.22% from last Friday’s 771.35. The S&P 500 finished at 7,722.72, a 0.27% weekly loss and a 0.73% Friday bounce. The Dow fell 1.26% on the week to 51,176.96. The Nasdaq Composite rose 0.45% to 27,190.86. Friday’s jobs report did the work: nonfarm payrolls rose 29,000 against a 90,000 estimate, unemployment ticked up to 4.2% from 4.1%, and the odds of an October Fed hike fell to 22.7% from 64.2% a week earlier. WTI settled near $88.89, down 4.3% Friday and about 3.8% on the week from $92.41. GLD fell 3.37% to 380.14. Last week’s 5-day GLD SELL paid. The new sheet flipped gold to a 10-day BUY.
Overall Market Insights
The models are built from three families labeled A, P, and N on the sheet. Those families take the standard stack: Absolute Price Oscillator, DMI, MACD, Money Flow Index, Parabolic SAR, RSI, SMA crossovers, the Stochastic Momentum Indicator, Time Series Forecast, and the Ultimate Oscillator. A capital BUY or SELL means all three families agreed. A lowercase buy or sell is an All-column print without that lock. No print means the models did not agree enough to call the horizon.
Technology kept the week, but the stack got shorter. QQQ closed 749.58, up 0.68% from 744.50. XLK closed 199.81, up 1.80% from 196.27. TQQQ closed 81.01, up 1.77% from 79.60. Last week QQQ was a three-model BUY at 5, 15, 20, 25, and 30 days. This week the 5-day and 20-day locks are gone. What is left is a three-model BUY at 15 and 25 days and a two-model buy at 30. XLK is the cleaner tech long: three-model BUY at 20 and 25 days, two-model buy at 30. TQQQ moved from a 5-day BUY to a 25-day BUY only. Do not roll last week’s 5-day TQQQ long into this file. That clock closed. It paid +1.77%, a better, not a great.
Gold is the clean flip, and it fights the tape. GLD was a three-model 5-day SELL last week. That short made 3.37% as the fund fell from 393.41 to 380.14. Spot gold finished the week near $4,137, down more than 3%, and failed to hold $4,200 after the jobs miss. The new file prints a three-model BUY at 10 days and nothing else. That is a mean-reversion long after a paid short, not a trend follow. One clock. Do not treat it as a repeal of the short that just worked.
Metals did not flip. XME is a three-model SELL at 5, 15, and 30 days. The fund fell 2.39% this week to 105.74. Last week’s 5-day XME SELL closed great at +2.39%. The new 5-day short is the same direction on a lower price. The 15- and 30-day shorts are the same call on a longer clock.
Energy is split again, and the split is not the same as last week. Last week XOP was a 5- and 10-day SELL against a 20-day BUY. The 5-day short lost: XOP rose 1.89% to 184.93, a bad. XLE, which was a 10-day BUY last week, rose 1.26% to 62.82 even as crude fell. The new file shorts XOP at 10 days only and buys it at 30. XLE is a three-model BUY at 25 days only. XES is the clean energy short: three-model SELL at 10 and 15 days, and a two-model sell at 30. XES fell 3.03% to 109.16. Services followed crude. Producers did not.
The new defensive long is staples, and the price has not confirmed it. XLP is a three-model BUY at 5 and 10 days. The fund fell 1.86% this week to 80.53. Consumer sentiment finished September at 48.1, a four-month low. That is the story the model is reading. It is not the close.
Consumer cyclicals are short in the front. XRT is a three-model SELL at 5 and 10 days. The fund was flat, 82.47 to 82.63. XHB is a three-model SELL at 5 and 30 days and a two-model sell at 25. XHB fell 1.65% to 96.70. The 30-year mortgage touched 7.5% on September 28. Homebuilders are the rate short. Retail is the demand short. They are not the same trade, but they point the same way this week.
Healthcare flipped the other way from last week’s XHS longs. Last week XHS was a 20- and 30-day BUY and XLV was a 15- and 20-day SELL. XLV fell 2.65% this week to 166.18, so the open 15- and 20-day shorts are still with the tape. The new file deletes those XLV shorts and prints a 30-day BUY only. XHS flipped to a three-model SELL at 5 and 20 days. The fund fell 1.08% to 133.36. Services are short in the front. The broad healthcare long is a 30-day clock only.
Size is split. DIA fell 1.23% to 511.10 and still prints three-model BUYs at 15 and 25 days. That is a bounce call after a down week, not a momentum call. IWM is a three-model SELL at 15 days and a two-model sell at 25. The fund was nearly flat, 281.97 to 281.52. Friday’s Russell 2000 bounce of 0.94% does not close that 15-day short. IJH is a two-model sell at 25 and 30 and rose 0.55% on the week. Mid-caps are not confirming the small-cap short on the weekly close.
Credit and banks stayed short. JNK is a three-model SELL at 10 days and fell 1.30% to 92.39. KBE is a three-model SELL at 20 and 30 days and fell 1.53% to 64.36. XLF fell 2.46% to 53.49 and printed nothing. BND is a two-model sell at 25 days and fell 0.98% to 69.94. SPY printed nothing this week. Last week’s 15-day SPY SELL and 30-day buy are gone from the All column.
Highlights of Bullish and Bearish Signals
Bullish clusters: XLK (20, 25 BUY; 30 buy), QQQ (15, 25 BUY; 30 buy), TQQQ (25 BUY), DIA (15, 25 BUY), XLP (5, 10 BUY), GLD (10 BUY), XLE (25 BUY), XOP (30 BUY), XLV (30 BUY).
Bearish clusters: XME SELL at 5, 15, and 30 days. XES SELL at 10 and 15, sell at 30. XHB SELL at 5 and 30, sell at 25. XHS SELL at 5 and 20. XRT SELL at 5 and 10. XOP SELL at 10 against a 30-day BUY. KBE SELL at 20 and 30. JNK SELL at 10. IWM SELL at 15, sell at 25. IJH sell at 25 and 30. XLI sell at 15. BND sell at 25. UPRO sell at 25.
Comparison to the September 26 Sheet
Last week’s 5-day column was long QQQ and TQQQ and short GLD, XME, and XOP. Four of the five paid. GLD SELL +3.37%, great. XME SELL +2.39%, great. QQQ BUY +0.68%, better. TQQQ BUY +1.77%, better. XOP SELL −1.89%, bad. The gold and metals shorts were the clean hits. The E&P short was the miss, because XOP rose while crude fell.
The new sheet cut the QQQ stack from five horizons to two full locks, moved TQQQ from 5 days to 25 days, and flipped GLD from a 5-day SELL to a 10-day BUY. It kept XME short and extended that short to 15 and 30 days. It replaced the XOP 5-day SELL with a 10-day SELL and kept a back-end XOP long, now at 30 days instead of 20. It deleted the XLV 15- and 20-day SELLs and the XHS 20- and 30-day BUYs, then put XHS on the short side at 5 and 20. It added XLP as a 5- and 10-day BUY, XRT as a 5- and 10-day SELL, and XHB as a 5-day SELL. SPY left the All column. XLI came back as a 15-day sell only.
The September 17 hike is now more than two weeks in the tape. Friday’s payroll miss cut the odds of a second hike this month. Yields eased off the cycle high, crude gave back another leg, and gold did not catch the bid a weak jobs print usually brings. The models responded by keeping tech long on a shorter curve, buying the staples dip, shorting metals and homebuilders, and fading gold only after the short had already paid.
Consensus Signal Table
Green = buy. Red = sell. Bold capitals = all three model families (A, P, and N) agreed. Lowercase = All-column signal without a full three-way lock. Em dash = no signal. Sheet dated October 3, 2026, scored off the October 2 close.
| ETF | 5d | 10d | 15d | 20d | 25d | 30d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BND | — | — | — | — | sell | — |
| DIA | — | — | BUY | — | BUY | — |
| GLD | — | BUY | — | — | — | — |
| IJH | — | — | — | — | sell | sell |
| IWM | — | — | SELL | — | sell | — |
| JNK | — | SELL | — | — | — | — |
| KBE | — | — | — | SELL | — | SELL |
| QQQ | — | — | BUY | — | BUY | buy |
| SPY | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| TQQQ | — | — | — | — | BUY | — |
| UPRO | — | — | — | — | sell | — |
| URTY | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| XBI | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| XES | — | SELL | SELL | — | — | sell |
| XHB | SELL | — | — | — | sell | SELL |
| XHS | SELL | — | — | SELL | — | — |
| XLB | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| XLE | — | — | — | — | BUY | — |
| XLF | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| XLI | — | — | sell | — | — | — |
| XLK | — | — | — | BUY | BUY | buy |
| XLP | BUY | BUY | — | — | — | — |
| XLRE | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| XLU | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| XLV | — | — | — | — | — | BUY |
| XLY | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| XME | SELL | — | SELL | — | — | SELL |
| XOP | — | SELL | — | — | — | BUY |
| XRT | SELL | SELL | — | — | — | — |
Strong Consensus Trends & External Confirmation
XLK 20- and 25-day BUY / QQQ 15- and 25-day BUY / TQQQ 25-day BUY. Reuters, “Equities close higher as softer jobs data quiets rate-hike expectations” (Oct. 2) had the Nasdaq Composite up 1.19% Friday to 27,190.86 and up 0.45% on the week, a fifth weekly gain in six, with Nvidia and Tesla among the biggest S&P boosts. That agrees with keeping large-cap tech long behind 15 days. It does not extend the call to a 5-day TQQQ long. That print is gone. The same piece said the Russell 2000 gained 0.94% Friday, its best day in a month. That disagrees with reading the IWM 15-day SELL as a same-day trade. The small-cap short is a three-week clock. Friday’s bounce does not close it. IWM was −0.16% on the week.
GLD 10-day BUY, against last week’s paid 5-day SELL. Kitco News, “Gold bulls disappointed as weak jobs report fails to spark rally, $4,000 support looms” (Oct. 2) had spot gold near $4,137, down more than 3% on the week, unable to hold $4,200 after the payroll miss. That disagrees with the new 10-day BUY. The jobs report gave gold a policy excuse and the metal sold it. The same tape agrees with the short that just closed: GLD 393.41 to 380.14, +3.37% in the direction of the SELL. The new long is a separate clock. It is early, and the weekly close is against it.
XES 10- and 15-day SELL / XOP 10-day SELL against a 30-day BUY / XLE 25-day BUY. AFP, “Oil prices drop on G7 fuel release, US jobs data boosts stocks” (Oct. 2) had oil down hard Friday after G7 nations agreed to release about 100 million barrels of diesel and crude over four months. WTI was down 2.6% intraday in that report and settled the session near $88.89, off 4.3% on the day and about 3.8% on the week from $92.41. That agrees with the XES shorts. XES fell 3.03% to 109.16. It does not agree with fading XOP on this week’s close. XOP rose 1.89% to 184.93 and XLE rose 1.26% to 62.82 while crude fell. Last week’s 5-day XOP SELL is the scored miss. The 10-day XOP SELL and the 30-day XOP BUY are different clocks. Keep them apart.
XHB 5- and 30-day SELL. Yahoo Finance, “Homebuilding stocks are feeling the bite of higher mortgage rates” (Sept. 28) had the 30-year mortgage touching 7.5% that day, the first print at that level since April 2024, and the S&P 500 Homebuilding Index down 3.2% for September. Lennar and KB Home had already reported slumping revenue. That agrees with the new XHB shorts. The fund closed 96.70, down 1.65% on the week from 98.32. The 5-day short is the front of that rate call. The 30-day short is the same call if mortgage rates stay above 7%.
XHS 5- and 20-day SELL against an XLV 30-day BUY. Zacks, “4 Low-Beta Healthcare Stocks to Buy Amid Fears of Another Rate Hike” (Oct. 2) wants defensive healthcare longs if another hike is still live. That disagrees with the XHS shorts. The week’s tape does not. XLV fell 2.65% to 166.18. XHS fell 1.08% to 133.36. The sheet’s only healthcare long is the 30-day XLV BUY. The front of healthcare services is short. Do not drag XHS onto a defensive-long list because a strategist likes low beta.
XLP 5- and 10-day BUY. Nasdaq, “4 Low-Beta Defensive Stocks to Buy as Consumer Sentiment Hits 4-Month Low” (Sept. 29) cited the University of Michigan sentiment index at a final 48.1 for September, down from 51.7 and a four-month low, and pointed at staples names as the hedge. That agrees with the direction of the new XLP locks. It does not agree with the week’s price. XLP fell 1.86% to 80.53. The model is buying a dip the close has not turned. Sentiment is the reason. The 5-day path is still open.
XME 5-, 15-, and 30-day SELL. No fresh metals piece this week contradicted the short, and the fund did the work itself. XME 108.33 to 105.74 is −2.39%. Last week’s 5-day SELL closed great on that path. The new 5-day SELL is the same call one week later. The 15- and 30-day SELLs say the model does not expect a fast reclaim. Gold’s failure to bounce on the payroll miss is the macro company this short is keeping.
Strong Buy/Sell Call Highlights
Every All-column buy or sell published in prior weekly files is scored with session closes. Signal date is the last U.S. equity session before the CSV date. Horizon is trading days, not calendar days. Realized return is the price move in the direction of the call (positive = the call made money). Ratings: great = more than +2.0%; better = +0.5% to +2.0%; flat = between −0.5% and +0.5%; bad = −0.5% to −2.0%; ugly = worse than −2.0%. Closes are Yahoo Finance adjusted session closes, checked against last week’s book (SPY 771.35 on September 25 matches). Polygon’s proxy was not reachable this week.
Older files (summarized)
June 13 post (signal June 12): 57 matured. Great 13 / better 16 / flat 8 / bad 6 / ugly 14. Directed win rate (great+better vs bad+ugly): 59.2%.
July 3 post (signal July 2): 41 matured. Great 12 / better 9 / flat 3 / bad 8 / ugly 9. Directed win rate: 55.3%.
July 11 post (signal July 10): 43 matured. Great 11 / better 10 / flat 4 / bad 10 / ugly 8. Directed win rate: 53.8%.
July 18 post (signal July 17): 58 matured. Great 17 / better 12 / flat 7 / bad 9 / ugly 13. Directed win rate: 56.9%.
July 25 post (signal July 24): 56 matured. Great 17 / better 9 / flat 9 / bad 6 / ugly 15. Directed win rate: 55.3%.
August 1 post (signal July 31): 50 matured. Great 9 / better 6 / flat 9 / bad 7 / ugly 19. Directed win rate: 36.6% on decided trades.
August 8 post (signal August 7): 40 matured. Great 13 / better 12 / flat 4 / bad 7 / ugly 4. Directed win rate: 69.4%.
August 15 post (signal August 14): 21 matured. Great 3 / better 1 / flat 4 / bad 8 / ugly 5. Directed win rate: 23.5%.
August 22 post (signal August 21): 19 matured. Great 1 / better 9 / flat 5 / bad 2 / ugly 2. Directed win rate: 71.4%.
August 29 post (signal August 28): 5-day sleeve previously scored; longer prints from that file stayed mixed as energy gave back part of the August spike into September. No new August sleeve matured on the October 2 close.
Post dated September 5, 2026 (signal close September 4)
10-day prints were scored in the September 26 post. The 15-day sleeve matured September 28 and is scored here. Longer horizons from this file remain open.
| ETF | Horizon | Signal | Realized Return | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| XRT | 10 | SELL | +6.36% | great |
| SPY | 10 | SELL | +1.10% | better |
| XLE | 10 | BUY | +0.39% | flat |
| XOP | 10 | BUY | −0.05% | flat |
| XLK | 10 | SELL | −1.24% | bad |
| XME | 10 | BUY | −8.38% | ugly |
| XLU | 15 | SELL | +8.89% | great |
| XLY | 15 | SELL | +5.14% | great |
| DIA | 15 | SELL | +3.76% | great |
| QQQ | 15 | BUY | +2.44% | great |
| JNK | 15 | buy | −2.21% | ugly |
| XLE | 15 | BUY | −3.06% | ugly |
| XLI | 15 | BUY | −3.70% | ugly |
Verified 15-day path September 4 → September 28: DIA 534.08 → 514.02; JNK 95.27 → 93.16; QQQ 718.96 → 736.53; XLE 64.06 → 62.10; XLI 175.27 → 168.78; XLU 43.08 → 39.25; XLY 114.91 → 109.00.
Post dated September 12, 2026 (signal close September 11)
5-day and 10-day prints were scored in prior posts. Newly matured: the 15-day sleeve, exit October 2. Longer horizons from this file remain open.
| ETF | Horizon | Signal | Realized Return | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| XRT | 5 | SELL | +3.26% | great |
| XLF | 5 | SELL | +2.43% | great |
| XLK | 5 | BUY | +1.03% | better |
| XOP | 5 | BUY | −2.61% | ugly |
| XES | 5 | BUY | −4.98% | ugly |
| XRT | 10 | SELL | +2.74% | great |
| TQQQ | 10 | SELL | −12.14% | ugly |
| XLE | 10 | BUY | −4.76% | ugly |
| XME | 10 | BUY | −4.66% | ugly |
| XOP | 10 | buy | −7.27% | ugly |
| XLU | 15 | SELL | +6.04% | great |
| JNK | 15 | SELL | +2.35% | great |
| BND | 15 | sell | +1.80% | better |
| SPY | 15 | buy | +0.70% | better |
| XLV | 15 | BUY | +0.50% | flat |
| XLI | 15 | BUY | −1.40% | bad |
| XLE | 15 | BUY | −3.56% | ugly |
| XLB | 15 | BUY | −4.10% | ugly |
| GLD | 15 | BUY | −4.67% | ugly |
| XES | 15 | BUY | −10.44% | ugly |
Verified 15-day path September 11 → October 2: BND 71.22 → 69.94; GLD 398.77 → 380.14; JNK 94.61 → 92.39; SPY 764.29 → 769.64; XES 121.89 → 109.16; XLB 50.95 → 48.86; XLE 65.14 → 62.82; XLI 172.37 → 169.95; XLU 42.39 → 39.83; XLV 165.36 → 166.18. The XES 15-day BUY is the worst new print of the week.
Post dated September 19, 2026 (signal close September 18)
5-day prints were scored last week. Newly matured: the 10-day sleeve, exit October 2. Longer horizons from this file remain open.
| ETF | Horizon | Signal | Realized Return | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GLD | 5 | SELL | +1.93% | better |
| XME | 5 | SELL | +0.32% | flat |
| XLE | 5 | BUY | −3.53% | ugly |
| XOP | 5 | BUY | −4.78% | ugly |
| GLD | 10 | SELL | +5.24% | great |
| XLP | 10 | sell | +2.74% | great |
| JNK | 10 | SELL | +2.28% | great |
| XOP | 10 | buy | −2.98% | ugly |
| TQQQ | 10 | SELL | −11.52% | ugly |
Verified 10-day path September 18 → October 2: GLD 401.17 → 380.14; JNK 94.55 → 92.39; TQQQ 72.64 → 81.01; XLP 82.80 → 80.53; XOP 190.61 → 184.93. The TQQQ 10-day SELL is the second leverage miss in two weeks. Last week’s September 11 10-day TQQQ SELL closed −12.14%. This one closed −11.52%.
Post dated September 26, 2026 (signal close September 25)
Newly matured: 5-day All-column prints, exit October 2. Longer horizons from this file remain open.
| ETF | Horizon | Signal | Realized Return | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GLD | 5 | SELL | +3.37% | great |
| XME | 5 | SELL | +2.39% | great |
| TQQQ | 5 | BUY | +1.77% | better |
| QQQ | 5 | BUY | +0.68% | better |
| XOP | 5 | SELL | −1.89% | bad |
Verified 5-day path September 25 → October 2: GLD 393.41 → 380.14; XME 108.33 → 105.74; TQQQ 79.60 → 81.01; QQQ 744.50 → 749.58; XOP 181.50 → 184.93.
Over the last five published weeks that now have closed prints, the utility and discretionary shorts from September 4 paid, the gold shorts from September 18 and September 25 paid, and the energy longs from September 11 kept losing. The September 11 15-day XES BUY was the worst new print (−10.44%). The September 18 10-day TQQQ SELL was the leverage miss (−11.52%). The September 25 5-day sleeve was the cleanest recent book: four directed wins and one bad, the XOP short. Across every matured call since the June 13 file, last week’s running tally was 53.2% directed (185 wins, 163 losses, 59 flats on 407 matured). Adding this week’s 27 newly closed prints — 15 wins, 11 losses, 1 flat — leaves the long-run directed book at 53.5% (200 wins, 174 losses, 60 flats on 434 matured). The latest 5-day sleeve improved. The full book did not leave coin-flip territory.
Recent hits worth owning in the record: XLU 15-day SELL from September 4 closed +8.89%; XLU 15-day SELL from September 11 closed +6.04%; GLD 10-day SELL from September 18 closed +5.24%; XLY 15-day SELL from September 4 closed +5.14%; GLD 5-day SELL from September 25 closed +3.37%; XME 5-day SELL from September 25 closed +2.39%. Recent misses: TQQQ 10-day SELL from September 18 closed −11.52%; XES 15-day BUY from September 11 closed −10.44%; GLD 15-day BUY from September 11 closed −4.67%; XLB 15-day BUY from September 11 closed −4.10%; XOP 5-day SELL from September 25 closed −1.89%.
Nothing in this post is a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
— Stock Trends with Joe
