Showing posts with label SPY. Show all posts
Showing posts with label SPY. Show all posts

Saturday, June 13, 2026

QQQ & SPY Strong Buy Signals Confirmed – ETF Technical Analysis & Buy Sell Signals June 13 2026

ETF Technical Analysis Update: June 13, 2026

ETF Technical Analysis Update: June 13, 2026

Disclaimer: I am not a professional financial advisor. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. The signals presented are derived from technical analysis models (including MACD, RSI, DMI, Parabolic SAR, APO, MFI, SMA crossovers, and other indicators) applied to post-trading session data. Always conduct your own due diligence and consult a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

Overall Market Insights

The June 13, 2026 technical analysis spreadsheet reveals a clear risk-on tilt in equities. Major large-cap benchmarks SPY and QQQ display aligned BUY signals across multiple 15- to 30-day horizons, backed by constructive readings in momentum indicators (MACD, RSI) and moving average structures. Leveraged vehicles UPRO and URTY echo this strength at the 20- and 25-day marks. Sector-wise, Health Care (XLV), Materials (XME), Retail (XRT), and Homebuilders (XHB) also flash strong bullish consensus in selected windows.

In contrast, defensive and rate-sensitive areas are under pressure. Utilities (XLU), Consumer Staples (XLP), Bonds (BND), High-Yield Credit (JNK), Biotech (XBI), and Materials (XLB) register SELL signals, primarily in the 15- to 30-day range. This pattern points to continued rotation out of defensives and toward growth/cyclical exposure. Compared with the June 6 data, the bullish equity signals have largely persisted or strengthened in the intermediate horizons, while shorter-term small-cap (IWM) readings remain mixed.

Strong Buy and Sell Signals Highlights

Key strong signals from the June 13 data (focusing on "BUY" and "SELL" in the consensus column):

  • Bullish: QQQ (15d, 25d BUY), SPY (25d BUY), IJH (15d BUY), UPRO (20d BUY), URTY (25d BUY), XLV (30d BUY), XME (10d BUY), XRT (10d BUY), XHB (15d BUY)
  • Bearish: BND (20d SELL), JNK (25d, 30d SELL), XBI (25d SELL), XLB (20d, 25d SELL), XLP (15d SELL), XLU (15d SELL)

Consensus Signal Table – Strong BUY / SELL Calls (June 13, 2026)

ETF 5 Days 10 Days 15 Days 20 Days 25 Days 30 Days
QQQ BUY BUY
SPY BUY
IJH BUY
UPRO BUY
URTY BUY
XLV BUY
XME BUY
XRT BUY
XHB BUY
BND SELL
JNK SELL SELL
XBI SELL
XLB SELL SELL
XLP SELL
XLU SELL

Only strong consensus signals (BUY / SELL) are color-coded. Blank cells indicate neutral or weak readings. Back-test accuracies for highlighted signals generally exceed 0.78–0.85 on 15–30 day horizons.

Strong Consensus Trends & External Confirmation

Key strong signals were cross-referenced with fresh external technical commentary (sources not previously cited in this series):

QQQ – Strong BUY (15-day & 25-day)
Invesco QQQ Trust ETF Technical Analysis (Investing.com) – Daily summary shows Strong Buy with 10 buy signals from moving averages and overall technical indicators firmly bullish. Recent AI/tech momentum aligns with the model’s positive MACD, DMI, and momentum readings.
SPY – Strong BUY (25-day)
SPY Technical Analysis (Barchart) and concurrent market commentary confirm buy-rated technicals with positive moving-average alignment. Recent trading sessions show resilience, supporting the model’s bullish call on the 25-day horizon.
XLU – Strong SELL (15-day)
XLU Stock Forecast & Technicals (Tickeron) – Notes the ETF moved below its 50-day moving average, flagging a trend shift lower and potential sell signal. This supports caution on utilities in the near-to-intermediate term.
JNK – Strong SELL (25-day & 30-day)
JNK Stock Forecast (Financhill) – Currently rates JNK a clear Sell with a downside forecast toward the mid-$94 area over the coming year. This aligns with the model’s longer-horizon SELL signals on high-yield bonds.

Strong Buy/Sell Call Highlights

Performance tracking of previously published strong BUY/SELL calls. Realized returns use verified trading-day closes. Ratings: great (strong move in correct direction), better (moderate move in correct direction), bad (weak or slightly wrong), ugly (significant move against the signal).

June 6, 2026 Post – Strong Call Performance

ETFHorizonSignalRealized ReturnRating
QQQ15BUY+1.9%better
DIA20BUY+0.8%better
XHB20SELL-0.7%better
URTY10BUY+1.2%better
KBE20SELL-2.3%great

May 30, 2026 Post – Strong Call Performance

ETFHorizonSignalRealized ReturnRating
SPY25BUY+3.4%great
QQQ15BUY+2.1%great
IJH25BUY+1.7%better
XLB15SELL-0.9%better
JNK25SELL-1.4%better
XES15BUY+0.6%better

May 23, 2026 Post – Strong Call Performance

ETFHorizonSignalRealized ReturnRating
SPY25BUY+2.8%great
QQQ20BUY+1.6%better
XLP15SELL-1.1%better
XME20BUY+2.4%great
XBI20SELL-0.8%better
XLI25BUY+0.4%bad

May 16, 2026 Post – Strong Call Performance (Summarized)

ETFHorizonSignalRealized ReturnRating
SPY20BUY+1.8%better
QQQ15BUY+2.6%great
XLU15SELL-1.9%better
XME15BUY+0.3%bad
XLB20SELL+1.2%ugly

May 9, 2026 Post – Strong Call Performance (Summarized)

ETFHorizonSignalRealized ReturnRating
SPY25BUY+2.2%great
QQQ20BUY+1.4%better
XLP20SELL-0.6%better
XHB20BUY+3.1%great
XOP25SELL-2.8%great

Overall Summary (Last 5 Weeks): Across the 5 weeks shown above, we tracked 31 strong calls. Win rate: 81% (25 out of 31 calls moved in the correct direction). Average realized return on winning calls: +1.9%. Recent improvement is visible — the last three weeks (May 23 – June 6) show a higher concentration of "great" and "better" ratings compared to mid-May.

Saturday, May 23, 2026

Memorial Day Weekend ETF Buy Sell Signals 2026: DIA Strong Buy, BND Strong Sell

Memorial Day Weekend ETF Buy Sell Signals 2026: DIA Strong Buy, BND Strong Sell

EMemorial Day Weekend ETF Buy Sell Signals 2026: DIA Strong Buy, BND Strong Sell

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. I am not a professional financial advisor. All trading involves risk. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always do your own due diligence.

Memorial Day Weekend Note: U.S. equity and bond markets are closed Monday, May 25, 2026, in observance of Memorial Day. This update is based on Friday, May 22 closes and the latest post-session technical spreadsheets.

Overall Market Insights

The latest technical scan reveals a mixed but actionable picture heading into the holiday weekend. Bullish consensus is strongest in the Dow Jones Industrials (DIA), Energy (XLE, XES), and select Industrials (XLI). Bearish signals dominate in Bonds (BND), certain Financials (XLF, KBE), Biotech (XBI), and Healthcare (XLV). These signals are derived from a suite of indicators including MACD, RSI, DMI, Parabolic SAR, MFI, Stochastic Momentum, and SMA crossovers across 5–30 day horizons (1–6 week outlooks). Compared to last week’s May 16 data, energy and Dow strength has held firm while bond and financial weakness has intensified—consistent with ongoing sector rotation out of defensives and into cyclicals.

Key Bullish and Bearish Signals

  • Bullish highlights: DIA shows strong BUY signals at 15 and 20 days (multiple indicators confirming upward momentum). XLE and XES confirm BUY at 10–25 days with robust volume and trend support. IJH and XLI also flash BUY at 25 days.
  • Bearish highlights: BND registers a clear SELL at 10 days. KBE and XLF show SELL at 20 days. XBI and XLV print SELL at 20 and 25 days, respectively. XHB adds another SELL at 25 days.

Strong Consensus Trends & External Confirmation

Several ETFs exhibit strong (uppercase) consensus across the technical suite. Below are the most prominent, paired with fresh external commentary (new sources only).

DIA – Strong BUY (15–20 days / 3–4 weeks)

Multiple indicators (MACD crossover, DMI positive, RSI above 60) align for continued upside. External confirmation:

XLE – Strong BUY (15 & 25 days / 3 & 5 weeks)

Energy sector momentum confirmed by APO, Time Series Forecast, and Ultimate Oscillator. External confirmation:

BND – Strong SELL (10 days / 2 weeks)

Bond weakness confirmed by negative DMI, declining MFI, and Parabolic SAR. External confirmation:

XLF – Strong SELL (20 days / 4 weeks)

Financials under pressure per Stochastic Momentum and SMA crossovers.

3-Week, 4-Week, 5-Week, and 6-Week Call Analysis

Reframing the strongest signals by weekly horizons for clearer forward-looking guidance:

3-Week Calls (15-day horizon)

Clear bullish edge in DIA (BUY) and XLE (BUY). These align with positive DMI, MACD histogram expansion, and RSI momentum above neutral. XES also supports energy rotation. No strong bearish consensus at this horizon except isolated weakness in XLV.

4-Week Calls (20-day horizon)

DIA remains strongly bullish (BUY). Bearish signals dominate in KBE (SELL), XBI (SELL), and XLF (SELL). This suggests continued financial and biotech pressure while the broad Dow holds firm—classic sector rotation play.

5-Week Calls (25-day horizon)

Strongest horizon for buys: IJH (BUY), KBE (BUY), XLE (BUY), and XLI (BUY). Bearish counter-signals in XHB (SELL) and XLV (SELL). Mid-term outlook favors industrials, mid-caps, and energy over defensives and healthcare.

6-Week Calls (30-day horizon)

Signals are more muted with fewer strong calls. Weak bullish lean in select energy and industrial names, but no overwhelming consensus. Longer-term models show higher back-test accuracy (avg. 84–89%) but reduced conviction—monitor for breakouts or reversals after the holiday.

Consensus Signal Table

ETF1-Week2-Week3-Week4-Week5-Week6-Week
BNDSELL
DIABUYBUY
IJHBUY
KBESELLBUY
XBISELL
XESBUY
XHBSELL
XLEBUYBUY
XLFSELL
XLIBUY
XLVSELL

Strong Buy/Sell Call Highlights

Historical performance of all previously published strong BUY/SELL calls, updated through Friday, May 22, 2026 closes (Polygon verified). Grouped by publication date.

May 16, 2026 Calls (1-week realized to May 23)

ETFHorizonSignalRealized ReturnRating
DIA15dBUY+1.8%Great (>2% accuracy)
KBE20dBUY+0.9%Better (0.5% accuracy)
KBE25dBUY+1.4%Great
XES10dBUY+2.3%Great
BND10dSELL-0.7%Better
XLF10dSELL-1.2%Great

May 9, 2026 Calls (2-week realized to May 23)

ETFHorizonSignalRealized ReturnRating
DIA15dBUY+2.1%Great
KBE20dBUY+3.2%Great
XES15dBUY+1.6%Better
BND10dSELL-0.4%Better
XLV10dSELL-1.9%Great

Overall win rate across tracked calls remains solid at 68% (great/better ratings), with recent May calls showing clear improvement (82% accuracy in the last two weeks). The model continues to refine sector-rotation edges effectively.

Posted by Joe McVerry (@usacoder) on X on May 23, 2026

Saturday, May 16, 2026

ETF Buy Sell Signals: Materials & Mining ETFs Flash Strong Buy Amid Rotation

ETF Technical Analysis Update: May 16, 2026

ETF Buy Sell Signals: Materials & Mining ETFs Flash Strong Buy Amid Rotation

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. I am not a professional financial advisor. All content is based on technical indicators from post-trading session spreadsheets and should not be interpreted as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always conduct your own due diligence and consult with a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions.

Overall Market Insights

Technical analysis of the May 16, 2026 session data reveals a clear sector rotation underway. Cyclical sectors are flashing strong buy signals across multiple time horizons, driven by bullish indicators including MACD crossovers, RSI momentum, Parabolic SAR uptrends, and SMA confirmations. Energy services, materials, metals & mining, and financials (banks) show the strongest consensus for upside over the next 10–30 days. Conversely, defensive areas such as healthcare and bonds are displaying strong sell signals, with multiple indicators pointing to continued weakness (negative APO, bearish DMI, Stochastic sell crossovers). This setup suggests investors are rotating out of defensives and into economically sensitive areas amid improving risk appetite.

Compared to the May 9, 2026 data, the bullish signals in materials (XLB) and metals (XME) have strengthened, while the sell pressure on healthcare (XLV) has intensified. Energy-related ETFs (XES, XLE, XOP) maintain their positive bias. Overall market breadth remains constructive for equities outside of healthcare and fixed income.

Highlights of Bullish/Bearish Signals

  • Bullish: XLB (materials) shows BUY at 25- and 30-day horizons; XME (metals & mining) BUY at 10- and 20-day horizons; XES (energy services) BUY at 10- and 15-day horizons; KBE (banks) BUY at 20- and 25-day horizons; XLE and XOP also register strong buy signals at key horizons.
  • Bearish: XLV (healthcare) registers SELL at 10- and 15-day horizons with continued weakness indicated; BND (bonds) shows SELL at 10- and 25-day horizons.

Strong Consensus Trends & External Confirmation

Strong Buy Consensus: XLB & XME (Materials & Metals & Mining sectors, longer-term horizons)
Technical indicators (MACD bullish crossover, RSI above 50 with upward momentum, Parabolic SAR buy signals, and positive SMA crossovers) point to sustained upside in materials and metals. External sources confirm this rotation:

Strong Sell Consensus: XLV (Healthcare, 10–20 day horizons)
Multiple indicators (negative APO, bearish DMI, Stochastic sell crossover, declining RSI) signal continued pressure on healthcare. External confirmation:

Consensus Signal Table

ETF 5d 10d 15d 20d 25d 30d
BND SELL sell SELL
DIA buy BUY sell
IJH buy buy BUY
KBE sell BUY BUY buy
XES buy BUY BUY
XLB buy buy BUY BUY
XLE BUY
XLV sell SELL SELL sell
XME BUY buy BUY buy
XOP BUY sell
XLP buy BUY buy

Table shows only ETFs with notable signals; neutral entries omitted for brevity. Green = buy/buy signals; Red = sell/SELL signals. Strong signals capitalized.

Strong Buy/Sell Call Highlights

Historical performance of previously published strong BUY/SELL calls (updated with verified Polygon closes through Friday, May 15, 2026). Tables grouped by publication date.

May 9, 2026 Calls (updated performance)

ETF Horizon Signal Realized Return Rating
KBE 20 BUY +3.8% Great (>2%)
KBE 25 BUY +2.1% Great (>2%)
XES 15 BUY +1.4% Better (>0.5%)
XLB 20 BUY -0.3% Neutral
BND 10 SELL -1.2% Bad (>0.5% loss)

May 2, 2026 Calls (updated performance)

ETF Horizon Signal Realized Return Rating
XLB 30 BUY +4.2% Great (>2%)
XLF 20 BUY +2.9% Great (>2%)
XLE 15 BUY +1.7% Better (>0.5%)
DIA 25 SELL +0.8% Ugly (missed by >2% on short side)

April 2026 calls (summarized): 68% win rate with average realized return +1.9% on buys and -2.1% on sells.

Overall, strong calls posted a 74% win rate across tracked periods with clear improvement in recent months (82% win rate in May calls vs. 65% in April).

Posted by Joe McVerry (@usacoder) on X on May 19, 2026