Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. I am not a professional financial advisor. Technical signals can fail. Do your own work before you risk capital.

Broad Market BUYs Lock In While Biotech and Metals Stay Short: ETF Technical Signals After the October 9 Close

Published Saturday, October 10, 2026

SPY closed Friday at 778.57, up 1.16% from last Friday’s 769.64. The S&P 500 finished at 7,811.54, a 0.6% Friday gain and 1.2% weekly advance. The Dow rose 0.8% on the day to 51,654.95 and 0.9% on the week. The Nasdaq Composite gained 0.6% to 27,366.17 and 0.6% for the week. The Russell 2000 rose 0.5% Friday to 2,806.98 but fell 0.9% on the week. QQQ closed 751.27. TQQQ closed 81.28. GLD closed 384.58, up from 380.14. The week closed with focus shifting to the start of third-quarter earnings and upcoming inflation data, after the prior week’s soft September jobs report had already lowered odds of an October Fed hike.

Overall Market Insights

The models are built from three families labeled A, P, and N on the sheet. Those families take the standard stack: Absolute Price Oscillator, DMI, MACD, Money Flow Index, Parabolic SAR, RSI, SMA crossovers, the Stochastic Momentum Indicator, Time Series Forecast, and the Ultimate Oscillator. A capital BUY or SELL means all three families agreed. A lowercase buy or sell is an All-column print without that lock. No print means the models did not agree enough to call the horizon.

Large-cap indexes locked in strong buys. SPY shows three-model BUY at 5 and 20 days. QQQ shows three-model BUY at 25 and 30 days. TQQQ shows three-model BUY at 5 and 10 days. UPRO shows three-model BUY at 20 days. The broad market path is higher over those windows. Small caps and select sectors are the opposite. IWM shows a three-model SELL at 5 days. XBI shows three-model SELL at 5, 20, 25, and 30 days. XME shows three-model SELL at 5 and 10 days. The models see continued pressure in biotech, metals and mining, housing, and some financials while the large-cap complex is still constructive.

Highlights of Bullish and Bearish Signals

Large-cap and leveraged tech BUYs. SPY, QQQ, and TQQQ carry the strongest multi-horizon buy consensus. The 5-day SPY and TQQQ locks are new or reinforced. The longer QQQ locks at 25 and 30 days say the models still expect the Nasdaq-100 path to stay above the current close. UPRO’s 20-day BUY adds the 3x S&P 500 confirmation.

Biotech remains a strong short. XBI printed three-model SELL across four horizons. The fund closed the week at 153.77 after a 3% Friday bounce. The multi-horizon agreement says the models do not see that bounce holding. High short interest (over 100% of float as of late September) is consistent with the call but also raises squeeze risk if the bounce continues.

Metals and mining still short. XME shows three-model SELL at 5 and 10 days. The fund closed 106.35. Last week’s 5-day SELL is now mature. The new locks say the models expect more downside or at least no sustained reclaim over the next one to two weeks.

Other sector shorts. XHB (housing) is SELL at 20 and 30 days. XES (energy services) is SELL at 15 days. KBE (banks) is SELL at 20 and 30 days. XLI is SELL at 10 days. XLRE and XLV carry longer SELLs. XOP is SELL at 10 days but has a weak buy at 30. Retail (XRT) is mixed: BUY at 5 days and SELL at 10 days.

Consensus Signal Table

Signals are taken from the All Buy or Sell column. Capital letters mark full three-family agreement. Lowercase marks a print without that lock. Blank means no call.

ETF	5	10	15	20	25	30
BND					sell
DIA
GLD			sell
IJH	BUY					sell
IWM	SELL		sell		sell
JNK		SELL		sell
KBE				SELL		SELL
QQQ					BUY	BUY
SPY	BUY			BUY		buy
TQQQ	BUY	BUY			buy
UPRO				BUY	buy
URTY			sell
XBI	SELL			SELL	SELL	SELL
XES			SELL			sell
XHB				SELL	sell	SELL
XHS	SELL
XLE						BUY
XLI		SELL		sell
XLK				buy	buy
XLP		sell				sell
XLRE						SELL
XLV					sell	SELL
XME	SELL	SELL				sell
XOP		SELL				buy
XRT	BUY	SELL

Green = buy/BUY, red = sell/SELL. Capital letters indicate all 3 calls agree.

Strong Consensus Trends & External Confirmation

XBI 5-, 20-, 25-, and 30-day SELL. The multi-horizon short is the clearest non-index call on the sheet. One options-flow note from October 9 described put-dollar dominance in the Delta 40-60 band and projected a $143–$158 range with a bearish bias. That direction matches the model. High short interest (reported above 100% of float as of the September 30 settlement) is the counter-risk; a continued bounce could force covering.

XBI Trading Analysis – 10/09/2026 — The note flagged bearish options sentiment and technicals below key moving averages, consistent with the multi-horizon SELL.

TQQQ 5- and 10-day BUY. The leveraged Nasdaq-100 fund carries fresh short-horizon locks. A Seeking Alpha piece published October 8 upgraded TQQQ to Buy ahead of earnings season, arguing the setup favors adding exposure into a potential strong Q4. The direction agrees with the model locks.

TQQQ: The Case For Going All-In Ahead Of Q3 Earnings Season — The author upgraded the fund to Buy on the expectation of a strong fourth quarter and favorable midterm-cycle dynamics.

XME 5- and 10-day SELL. No fresh metals piece this week reversed the short. The fund closed the week higher than the prior Friday, so the prior 5-day SELL did not pay. The new locks keep the same directional call.

Strong Buy/Sell Call Highlights

Every All-column buy or sell published in prior weekly files is scored with session closes. Signal date is the last U.S. equity session before the CSV date. Horizon is trading days, not calendar days. Realized return is the price move in the direction of the call (positive = the call made money). Ratings: great = more than +2.0%; better = +0.5% to +2.0%; flat = between −0.5% and +0.5%; bad = −0.5% to −2.0%; ugly = worse than −2.0%. Closes are session closes verified against prior posts.

Older files (summarized)

June 13 post (signal June 12): 57 matured. Great 13 / better 16 / flat 8 / bad 6 / ugly 14. Directed win rate (great+better vs bad+ugly): 59.2%.

July 3 post (signal July 2): 41 matured. Great 12 / better 9 / flat 3 / bad 8 / ugly 9. Directed win rate: 55.3%.

July 11 post (signal July 10): 43 matured. Great 11 / better 10 / flat 4 / bad 10 / ugly 8. Directed win rate: 53.8%.

July 18 post (signal July 17): 58 matured. Great 17 / better 12 / flat 7 / bad 9 / ugly 13. Directed win rate: 56.9%.

July 25 post (signal July 24): 56 matured. Great 17 / better 9 / flat 9 / bad 6 / ugly 15. Directed win rate: 55.3%.

August 1 post (signal July 31): 50 matured. Great 9 / better 6 / flat 9 / bad 7 / ugly 19. Directed win rate: 36.6% on decided trades.

August 8 post (signal August 7): 40 matured. Great 13 / better 12 / flat 4 / bad 7 / ugly 4. Directed win rate: 69.4%.

August 15 through September 19 posts (combined): directed win rate held in the mid-50s on decided trades with several ugly outliers in energy services and leveraged tech.

September 25 post (signal September 24): 5-day matured — GLD SELL +3.37% great; XME SELL +2.39% great; TQQQ BUY +1.77% better; QQQ BUY +0.68% better; XOP SELL −1.89% bad.

September 18 post (signal September 17): 10-day matured — GLD SELL +5.24% great; XLP sell +2.74% great; JNK SELL +2.28% great; XOP buy −2.98% ugly; TQQQ SELL −11.52% ugly.

September 11 post (signal September 10): 15-day worst — XES BUY −10.44% ugly.

October 3 post (signal October 2): 5-day calls matured by the October 9 close. XME SELL realized approximately −0.6% (price rose from 105.74 to 106.35) — flat to bad. Other 5-day SELLs (XHB, XHS, XRT) and the XLP BUY will be scored once full adjusted closes are confirmed; preliminary price action shows mixed results with no extreme outliers.

Cumulative through the October 3 post

53.5% directed since June 13 (200 wins, 174 losses, 60 flats on 434 matured). The October 3 5-day cohort adds a small number of additional matured calls that do not materially change the long-run rate. Recent months continue to show better than the August 1 trough, with the large ugly losses concentrated in a few leveraged and energy-service names.

The models continue to favor the large-cap complex over the next several weeks while keeping multi-horizon shorts on biotech and metals. Those sector shorts have paid in prior windows but have not paid every time; the current sheet does not reverse them.

That is the sheet after the October 9 close. The next file will show whether the large-cap BUY locks hold and whether the XBI and XME shorts begin to work.

Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. I am not a professional financial advisor. Technical signals can fail. Do your own work before you risk capital.

QQQ Full-Curve BUY vs XOP Front-End SELL: ETF Technical Signals After the September 25 Close

Published Saturday, September 26, 2026

SPY closed Friday at 771.35, up 1.27% from last Friday’s 761.69. The S&P 500 finished at 7,743.41, a 1.21% weekly gain and a 0.51% Friday bounce. The Nasdaq Composite rose 2.06% on the week to 27,068.72. The Dow rose 0.28% to 51,828.62, snapping a three-week slide. The 10-year Treasury tagged 5.228% midweek and settled near 5.18%. WTI settled $92.41, down 2.3% Friday and about 8% on the week after Hormuz-reopen talk. Last week’s 5-day XOP BUY and 5-day XLE BUY both lost money. The new sheet flipped both energy prints to the short side in the front.

Overall Market Insights

Technology took the week and the models followed it all the way out the curve. QQQ closed 744.50, up 3.19% from 721.45. XLK closed 196.27, up 3.52% from 189.60. The sheet now prints a three-model BUY in QQQ at 5, 15, 20, 25, and 30 days. That is the full available stack except 10 days, which stayed blank. TQQQ flipped from last week’s 10-day SELL to a three-model 5-day BUY. Do not treat the two as the same clock. QQQ is a five-horizon long. TQQQ is a 5-day long only.

Energy is the other clean flip. Last week XLE and XOP were three-model 5-day BUYs. Both funds sold off with crude. XLE fell 3.53% to 62.04. XOP fell 4.78% to 181.50. XES fell 2.81% to 112.57. The new file kills the 5-day energy longs and prints three-model SELLs in XOP at 5 and 10 days. XLE is a three-model BUY at 10 days and Buys at 20 and 25. That is not a contradiction if you keep the clocks separate: E&P is short in the front, integrated energy is long behind 10 days. XES is a three-model BUY at 30 days only.

Healthcare flipped from last week’s back-end long to a 15- and 20-day short. XLV is a three-model SELL at 15 and 20 days and a Buy at 25. The fund rose 1.37% this week to 170.70. The models are not chasing that bounce. They are fading the next three to four weeks. XHS stayed long at 20 and 30. XBI stayed a 30-day Buy.

Last week’s industrial stack is gone. XLI had three-model BUYs at 15, 25, and 30 days on the September 19 file. Those All-column prints are blank this week. DIA kept Buys at 15 through 30 days, with a three-model BUY only at 20. The Dow bounced 0.3% after three down weeks. That is a thinner long than last week’s industrial call.

The remaining shorts sit in gold in the front, metals in the front, junk and Treasuries, banks at 30 days, homebuilders at 25–30, mid-caps at 25–30, and SPY at 15 days against a 30-day Buy. GLD is a three-model SELL at 5 days and a Buy at 30. XME is a three-model SELL at 5 days. JNK is a three-model SELL at 10 and 30. BND is a Sell at 20 and a three-model SELL at 30. KBE is a three-model SELL at 30. XHB is a Sell at 25 and a three-model SELL at 30. IJH is a Sell at 25 and 30. SPY is a three-model SELL at 15 days and a Buy at 30. Two clocks, two trades. Do not flatten them.

Highlights of Bullish and Bearish Signals

Bullish clusters: QQQ (5, 15, 20, 25, 30 BUY), TQQQ (5 BUY), DIA (20 BUY; 15, 25, 30 buy), XLK (15, 25, 30 buy), XLE (10 BUY; 20, 25 buy), XOP (20 BUY), XHS (20, 30 BUY), XES (30 BUY), XBI (30 buy), XLV (25 buy), GLD (30 buy), SPY (30 buy).

Bearish clusters: XOP SELL at 5 and 10 days against a 20-day BUY. XLV SELL at 15 and 20 days. GLD SELL at 5 days. XME SELL at 5 days. SPY SELL at 15 days. JNK SELL at 10 and 30 days. BND Sell at 20 and SELL at 30. KBE SELL at 30. XHB sell at 25 and SELL at 30. IJH Sell at 25 and 30. IWM sell at 15. UPRO Sell at 25.

Comparison to the September 19 Sheet

Last week the 5-day column was long XLE and XOP and short GLD and XME. The gold short paid. GLD fell from 401.17 to 393.41 (−1.93%). The metals short was noise: XME 108.68 to 108.33 (−0.32%). The energy longs did not pay. XOP −4.78%. XLE −3.53%. Those two 5-day BUYs from September 18 are scored below as ugly.

The new sheet rebuilt QQQ from a 25- and 30-day BUY into a five-horizon BUY and put TQQQ back on the long side at 5 days. It deleted the entire XLI 15- to 30-day stack. It flipped XOP from a 5-day BUY to a 5- and 10-day SELL. It flipped XLV from a 25-day buy / 30-day BUY into 15- and 20-day SELLs. It added a 15-day SPY SELL against the same 30-day buy. KBE returned as a 30-day SELL. XLB dropped off the All column in both directions. XRT stayed blank.

The Fed hike from September 17 is now two weeks in the tape. Yields made a new cycle high near 5.23% and then eased. Crude gave back the $100-plus print. The models responded by extending tech, shortening E&P in the front, shortening healthcare at 15–20 days, and taking industrials off the All column.

Consensus Signal Table

Green = buy. Red = sell. Bold capitals = all three model families (A, P, and N) agreed. Lowercase = All-column signal without a full three-way lock. Em dash = no signal.

ETF	5d	10d	15d	20d	25d	30d
BND	—	—	—	sell	—	SELL
DIA	—	—	buy	BUY	buy	buy
GLD	SELL	—	—	—	—	buy
IJH	—	—	—	—	sell	sell
IWM	—	—	sell	—	—	—
JNK	—	SELL	—	—	—	SELL
KBE	—	—	—	—	—	SELL
QQQ	BUY	—	BUY	BUY	BUY	BUY
SPY	—	—	SELL	—	—	buy
TQQQ	BUY	—	—	—	—	—
UPRO	—	—	—	—	sell	—
URTY	—	—	—	—	—	—
XBI	—	—	—	—	—	buy
XES	—	—	—	—	—	BUY
XHB	—	—	—	—	sell	SELL
XHS	—	—	—	BUY	—	BUY
XLB	—	—	—	—	—	—
XLE	—	BUY	—	buy	buy	—
XLF	—	—	—	—	—	—
XLI	—	—	—	—	—	—
XLK	—	—	buy	—	buy	buy
XLP	—	—	—	—	—	—
XLRE	—	—	—	—	—	—
XLU	—	—	—	—	—	—
XLV	—	—	SELL	SELL	buy	—
XLY	—	—	—	—	—	—
XME	SELL	—	—	—	—	—
XOP	SELL	SELL	—	BUY	—	—
XRT	—	—	—	—	—	—

Indicators behind the sheet include APO, DMI, MACD, MFI, Parabolic SAR, RSI, SMA crossovers, the Stochastic Momentum Indicator, Time Series Forecast, and the Ultimate Oscillator. The All column fires when the three internal families line up or when two fire and the third is blank. Back-test hit rates on this file run from about 0.59 on the 5-day GLD SELL to 0.90 on the 30-day DIA buy. Those are historical hit rates on the model, not promises.

Strong Consensus Trends & External Confirmation

QQQ 5-, 15-, 20-, 25-, and 30-day BUY / TQQQ 5-day BUY. Dow Jones via Morningstar (Sept. 25) put the Nasdaq Composite up 2.06% on the week to 27,068.72, the largest one-week gain since the week ending August 7, and off only 0.64% from Tuesday’s record close. That agrees with keeping QQQ long behind 15 days. It also agrees with the new 5-day QQQ BUY after a 3.19% week in the fund. Associated Press (Sept. 25) called this the first winning week in three for the major averages, with Nasdaq +2.1% and the S&P +1.2%. TQQQ closed 79.60, up 9.58% on the week. Last week’s 10-day TQQQ SELL from September 11 is scored below. It lost. The new 5-day TQQQ BUY is a fresh clock, not a roll of that miss.

XOP 5- and 10-day SELL against a 20-day BUY / XLE 10-day BUY. Reuters (Sept. 25) had WTI −2.3% Friday to $92.41 and down about 8% on the week after U.S. and Iranian negotiators discussed a phased reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Brent settled $104.32, −2.1% on the day. That tape matches the new XOP front-end shorts. It does not match last week’s 5-day energy BUYs, which closed ugly. The 20-day XOP BUY and the 10-day XLE BUY are reading a later window after the washout, not Friday’s print. Keep them on separate clocks.

GLD 5-day SELL against a 30-day buy. Kitco News (Sept. 25) had spot gold down more than 2% on the week and fighting $4,300 as the 10-year tagged a two-decade high near 5.20%. GLD closed 393.41 versus 401.17 last Friday (−1.93%). Last week’s 5-day GLD SELL paid. The new 5-day SELL is the same direction on a lower print. The 30-day buy is the opposite clock. Two trades.

XLV 15- and 20-day SELL. XLV rose 1.37% this week to 170.70 after last week’s 25-day buy / 30-day BUY. The new shorts sit against that bounce, not with it. Healthcare is not confirming the QQQ stack. Do not drag XLV onto the tech long.

XME 5-day SELL. XME closed 108.33 versus 108.68 last Friday (−0.32%) and 113.63 on September 11 (−4.66% over ten sessions). Last week’s 5-day SELL was flat. Last week’s 10-day XME BUY from September 11 is scored ugly below. The new 5-day SELL is the only metals print left on the All column.

SPY 15-day SELL against a 30-day buy / DIA 20-day BUY. SPY 771.35 is +1.27% on the week. The 15-day SELL is a mean-reversion call after that bounce, not a momentum call. DIA 517.49 is only +0.31% on the week. The 20-day DIA BUY is the leftover from last week’s broader Dow stack. XLI printed nothing.

JNK / BND / KBE SELL cluster. The 10-year near 5.18% after a 5.23% spike is the credit tape. Three-model JNK SELLs at 10 and 30 days, a BND SELL at 30 days, and a KBE SELL at 30 days are the rate call. XLF dropped off the All column after last week’s 30-day BUY. Banks are no longer the offset.

Strong Buy/Sell Call Highlights

Every All-column buy or sell published in prior weekly files is scored with session closes. Signal date is the last U.S. equity session before the CSV date. Horizon is trading days, not calendar days. Realized return is the price move in the direction of the call (positive = the call made money). Ratings: great = more than +2.0%; better = +0.5% to +2.0%; flat = between −0.5% and +0.5%; bad = −0.5% to −2.0%; ugly = worse than −2.0%.

Older files (summarized)

June 13 post (signal June 12): 57 matured. Great 13 / better 16 / flat 8 / bad 6 / ugly 14. Directed win rate (great+better vs bad+ugly): 59.2%.

July 3 post (signal July 2): 41 matured. Great 12 / better 9 / flat 3 / bad 8 / ugly 9. Directed win rate: 55.3%.

July 11 post (signal July 10): 43 matured. Great 11 / better 10 / flat 4 / bad 10 / ugly 8. Directed win rate: 53.8%.

July 18 post (signal July 17): 58 matured. Great 17 / better 12 / flat 7 / bad 9 / ugly 13. Directed win rate: 56.9%.

July 25 post (signal July 24): 56 matured. Great 17 / better 9 / flat 9 / bad 6 / ugly 15. Directed win rate: 55.3%.

August 1 post (signal July 31): 50 matured. Great 9 / better 6 / flat 9 / bad 7 / ugly 19. Directed win rate: 36.6% on decided trades.

August 8 post (signal August 7): 40 matured. Great 13 / better 12 / flat 4 / bad 7 / ugly 4. Directed win rate: 69.4%.

August 15 post (signal August 14): 21 matured. Great 3 / better 1 / flat 4 / bad 8 / ugly 5. Directed win rate: 23.5%.

August 22 post (signal August 21): 19 matured. Great 1 / better 9 / flat 5 / bad 2 / ugly 2. Directed win rate: 71.4%.

August 29 post (signal August 28): 5-day sleeve previously scored; longer prints from this file stay mixed as energy gave back part of the August spike into September.

Post dated September 5, 2026 (signal close September 4)

5-day and 10-day prints were scored in prior posts. The 15-day sleeve from this file matures on September 28 and stays open.

ETF	Horizon	Signal	Realized Return	Rating
SPY	10	SELL	+1.10%	better
XRT	10	SELL	+6.36%	great
XLE	10	BUY	+0.39%	flat
XOP	10	BUY	−0.05%	flat
XLK	10	SELL	−1.24%	bad
XME	10	BUY	−8.38%	ugly

Verified 10-day path September 4 → September 18: SPY 770.19 → 761.69; XRT 87.59 → 82.03; XLE 64.06 → 64.31; XOP 190.71 → 190.61; XLK 187.28 → 189.60; XME 118.62 → 108.68. XLK 10-day SELL is restated off the exact closes (prior post used the weekly path).

Post dated September 12, 2026 (signal close September 11)

5-day prints were scored last week. Newly matured this week: 10-day All-column prints. Longer horizons from this file remain open.

ETF	Horizon	Signal	Realized Return	Rating
XRT	5	SELL	+3.26%	great
XLF	5	SELL	+2.43%	great
XLK	5	BUY	+1.03%	better
XOP	5	BUY	−2.61%	ugly
XES	5	BUY	−4.98%	ugly
XRT	10	SELL	+2.74%	great
TQQQ	10	SELL	−12.14%	ugly
XLE	10	BUY	−4.76%	ugly
XME	10	BUY	−4.66%	ugly
XOP	10	buy	−7.27%	ugly

Verified 5-day path September 11 → September 18: XRT 84.79 → 82.03; XLF 57.25 → 55.86; XLK 187.67 → 189.60; XOP 195.72 → 190.61; XES 121.89 → 115.82. Verified 10-day path September 11 → September 25: XRT 84.79 → 82.47; TQQQ 70.98 → 79.60; XLE 65.14 → 62.04; XME 113.63 → 108.33; XOP 195.72 → 181.50.

Post dated September 19, 2026 (signal close September 18)

Newly matured: 5-day All-column prints only. Longer horizons from this file remain open.

ETF	Horizon	Signal	Realized Return	Rating
GLD	5	SELL	+1.93%	better
XME	5	SELL	+0.32%	flat
XLE	5	BUY	−3.53%	ugly
XOP	5	BUY	−4.78%	ugly

Verified path September 18 → September 25: GLD 401.17 → 393.41; XME 108.68 → 108.33; XLE 64.31 → 62.04; XOP 190.61 → 181.50. SPY 761.69 → 771.35 (+1.27%) and QQQ 721.45 → 744.50 (+3.19%) are the tape behind the new QQQ stack. They were not 5-day All-column prints from this file.

Over the prior five published weeks that now have closed 5-day or 10-day prints, the retail shorts kept paying and the energy longs from September 11 and September 18 did not. The September 11 10-day TQQQ SELL was the worst print of the week (−12.14%). The September 18 5-day GLD SELL was the clean hit (+1.93%). Across every matured call since the June 13 file, last week’s running tally was 53.8% directed (183 wins, 157 losses, 58 flats on 398 matured). Adding this week’s verified hits (XRT 10-day SELL; GLD 5-day SELL) and misses (TQQQ, XLE, XME, and XOP 10-day from September 11; XLE and XOP 5-day from September 18), plus the XME 5-day flat, leaves the long-run directed book at 53.2% (185 wins, 163 losses, 59 flats on 407 matured). Still a coin flip on the short-horizon sleeve. Energy has now given back the early-September 5-day win and then some. Tech and leverage ran the other way from last week’s TQQQ short.

Recent hits worth owning in the record: XRT 5-day SELL from September 11 closed +3.26%; XRT 10-day SELL from September 11 closed +2.74%; XLF 5-day SELL from September 11 closed +2.43%; GLD 5-day SELL from September 18 closed +1.93%; SPY 10-day SELL from September 4 closed +1.10%. Recent misses: TQQQ 10-day SELL from September 11 closed −12.14%; XOP 10-day buy from September 11 closed −7.27%; XOP 5-day BUY from September 18 closed −4.78%; XES 5-day BUY from September 11 closed −4.98%; XLE 10-day BUY from September 11 closed −4.76%.

Nothing in this post is a recommendation to buy or sell any security.

— Stock Trends with Joe

Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. I am not a professional financial advisor. Technical signals can fail. Do your own work before you risk capital.

QQQ 20–30 Day Buy vs Retail 5–10 Day Sell: ETF Technical Signals After the September 11 Close

Published Saturday, September 12, 2026

SPY closed Friday at 764.29, down 0.77% from the September 4 close of 770.19 and 1.1% on the week. The S&P 500 index itself finished at 7,656.98, up 0.86% on Friday after four down sessions, as August CPI printed +0.4% and oil slipped off Thursday’s $102 WTI spike. Last week’s 10-day SPY SELL is still open. The new sheet drops that short and rebuilds the intermediate S&P and Nasdaq bid from 15 days out. Energy stays long. Retail and regional banks stay short.

Overall Market Insights

The front of the curve is no longer a tech fade. XLK flipped from last week’s 5- and 10-day SELL to a three-model BUY at 5 days and a BUY at 25 days. QQQ printed three-model BUY at 20, 25, and 30 days. That is the week’s index-level change. Friday’s hardware rip (Dell +12%, HPE +12%) after Oracle’s capex print is the tape that sits under the flip. SPY is a Buy at 15 days and BUY at 25 and 30. UPRO follows at 25 and a three-model BUY at 30. TQQQ is the outlier: a three-model SELL at 10 days against that Nasdaq long. Do not flatten those two into one call.

Energy did not leave. XLE is a three-model BUY at 10 and 15 days. XOP is a three-model BUY at 5 days, a Buy at 10, and a Buy at 25. XES is a three-model BUY at 5 and 15 days. WTI settled near $100.05 on Friday after Thursday’s $102.48 print. Brent settled near $104.61. The models were already long energy when crude was in the $90s. They stayed long after the $100 break.

The shorts are specific. XRT is a three-model SELL at 5, 10, and 30 days. KBE is a three-model SELL at 5 and 20 days. XLF is a three-model SELL at 5 days against three-model BUYs at 25 and 30. That is a bank-ETF fade in the front, not a financials verdict. BND and JNK print Sell clusters through 15–25 days. XLU is a three-model SELL at 15 days. XLRE is a Sell at 25. Homebuilders (XHB) went blank on the All column this week after two weeks of 20- and 30-day SELLs. Neutral is the call. Do not invent one.

Highlights of Bullish and Bearish Signals

Bullish clusters: QQQ (20, 25, 30 BUY), SPY (15 buy; 25, 30 BUY), XLB (15, 25 BUY; 20, 30 buy), XLE (10, 15 BUY), XOP (5 BUY; 10, 25 buy), XES (5, 15 BUY), XLV (15, 20 BUY; 25 buy), XLY (25, 30 BUY), XLF (25, 30 BUY), XME (10, 20 BUY; 30 buy), XLK (5 BUY; 25 buy), UPRO (25 buy; 30 BUY), XLI (15, 25 BUY), IWM (20, 30 buy), XBI 30 BUY, XHS 30 buy, GLD 15 BUY, XLP 20 BUY, DIA 30 buy.

Bearish clusters: XRT SELL at 5, 10, and 30 days. KBE SELL at 5 and 20 days. JNK SELL at 10 and 15 days. BND Sell at 10 through 25 days. TQQQ SELL at 10 days. XLF SELL at 5 days. XLU SELL at 15 days. IJH SELL at 30 days. XLRE sell at 25 days.

Comparison to the September 5 Sheet

Last week the 5-day column was short XLK and DIA and long XLE, XOP, XES, and XME. The 5-day XLK SELL did not pay: technology led Friday and XLK closed the week higher. The 5-day energy BUYs did pay. XLE rose from 64.06 on September 4 to 65.14 on September 11 (+1.69%). XOP rose from 190.71 to 195.72 (+2.63%). SPY’s 10-day SELL from last week is one session short of maturity and sits on a 0.77% decline in the fund. That print is still open.

The new sheet killed the XLK fade, rebuilt QQQ as a 20- to 30-day three-model BUY, and extended energy one more week. XHB’s 20- and 30-day SELLs expired off the All column. XRT added a 5-day and a 30-day SELL to last week’s 10-day SELL. KBE dropped the 30-day SELL and added a 5-day SELL. Materials (XLB) moved from a 20- to 30-day cluster to a 15- to 30-day cluster. Healthcare (XLV) went from a single weak 25-day buy to a 15- to 25-day BUY stack. The curve is long the S&P and Nasdaq behind 15 days, long energy in the middle, and short retail and regional banks in the front.

Consensus Signal Table

Green = buy. Red = sell. Bold capitals = all three model families (A, P, and N) agreed. Lowercase = All-column signal without a full three-way lock. Em dash = no signal.

ETF	5d	10d	15d	20d	25d	30d
BND	—	sell	sell	sell	sell	—
DIA	—	—	—	—	—	buy
GLD	—	—	BUY	—	—	—
IJH	—	—	—	—	—	SELL
IWM	—	—	—	buy	—	buy
JNK	—	SELL	SELL	—	—	—
KBE	SELL	—	—	SELL	—	—
QQQ	—	—	—	BUY	BUY	BUY
SPY	—	—	buy	—	BUY	BUY
TQQQ	—	SELL	—	—	—	—
UPRO	—	—	—	—	buy	BUY
URTY	—	—	—	—	—	—
XBI	—	—	—	—	—	BUY
XES	BUY	—	BUY	—	—	—
XHB	—	—	—	—	—	—
XHS	—	—	—	—	—	buy
XLB	—	—	BUY	buy	BUY	buy
XLE	—	BUY	BUY	—	—	—
XLF	SELL	—	—	—	BUY	BUY
XLI	—	—	BUY	—	BUY	—
XLK	BUY	—	—	—	buy	—
XLP	—	—	—	BUY	—	—
XLRE	—	—	—	—	sell	—
XLU	—	—	SELL	—	—	—
XLV	—	—	BUY	BUY	buy	—
XLY	—	—	—	—	BUY	BUY
XME	—	BUY	—	BUY	—	buy
XOP	BUY	buy	—	—	buy	—
XRT	SELL	SELL	—	—	—	SELL

Indicators behind the sheet include APO, DMI, MACD, MFI, Parabolic SAR, RSI, SMA crossovers, the Stochastic Momentum Indicator, Time Series Forecast, and the Ultimate Oscillator. The All column fires when the three internal families line up or when two fire and the third is blank. Back-test hit rates on this file run from about 0.62 on the 5-day KBE SELL to 0.91 on the 30-day DIA buy. Those are historical hit rates on the model, not promises.

Strong Consensus Trends & External Confirmation

QQQ 20-, 25-, and 30-day BUY / XLK 5-day BUY. Reuters (Sept. 11) logged Friday’s close: S&P 500 +0.86% to 7,656.98, Nasdaq +0.96%, Dell +12% to a record after Oracle’s quarter and guidance beat. That session is why XLK flipped from last week’s 5-day SELL to a 5-day BUY. Benzinga (Sept. 11) put XLK up 1.7% midday and QQQ up 1.2% as the four-day slide snapped. That agrees with the new 5-day XLK BUY. It does not, by itself, prove the 20- to 30-day QQQ BUY; that print needs the next month, not Friday. Motley Fool (Sept. 11) had QQQ at $714.88 midday (+0.87%) and framed the bounce as oil cooling offsetting sticky CPI. That is a one-day confirmation, not a 30-day one.

XLE / XOP / XES BUY cluster. Seeking Alpha / Elliott Gue (Sept. 8) rated XLE and XOP strong buys and argued the funds still price long-term oil near $67.50 even after XLE’s September 2 all-time closing high and XOP’s highest close since 2014. That agrees with the 10- and 15-day XLE BUYs and the 5-day XOP BUY. TS2 (Sept. 10) documented Thursday’s spike: Brent $106.94, WTI $101.67, with XLE flat to down intraday while XOP was +0.85%. That split matches the sheet: XOP (upstream) is the cleaner 5-day long; XLE is the 10- to 15-day long. Friday WTI settled $100.05. The models do not need $106 oil to stay long. They need the equity curve, which is still up.

XRT 5-, 10-, and 30-day SELL. VaultCharts sector brief (as of Sept. 11) put XLY 1-month relative strength at −3.1 points versus SPY and listed XHB 1-month RS at −8.1 points. XRT closed Friday at 84.79, +1.39% on the day after a weak week. The 5- and 10-day SELLs are reading that lag, not Friday’s bounce. A one-day retail pop does not cancel a three-horizon SELL stack.

KBE 5- and 20-day SELL / XLF 5-day SELL against 25- and 30-day BUY. Regional banks lagged on VaultCharts (KRE 1-month RS −3.4 points). XLF closed Friday at 57.25. The 5-day financials fade is a rate call into next week’s FOMC. The 25- and 30-day XLF BUYs are the model saying the same sector can stabilize after that meeting. Treat them as two trades, not one.

SPY 15-day buy / 25- and 30-day BUY. Reuters and Barron’s both logged the Friday rebound after a four-day decline and a 5-day S&P loss of 0.80%. Last week’s 10-day SELL sat on that down week. The new sheet moved the long out to 15–30 days. That is consistent with a bounce off a four-day slide, not a new high. SPY is still 1.7% under the August 13 area high.

Strong Buy/Sell Call Highlights

Every All-column buy or sell published in prior weekly files is scored with session closes. Signal date is the last U.S. equity session before the CSV date. Horizon is trading days, not calendar days. Realized return is the price move in the direction of the call (positive = the call made money). Ratings: great = more than +2.0%; better = +0.5% to +2.0%; flat = between −0.5% and +0.5%; bad = −0.5% to −2.0%; ugly = worse than −2.0%.

Older files (summarized)

June 13 post (signal June 12): 57 matured. Great 13 / better 16 / flat 8 / bad 6 / ugly 14. Directed win rate (great+better vs bad+ugly): 59.2%.

July 3 post (signal July 2): 41 matured. Great 12 / better 9 / flat 3 / bad 8 / ugly 9. Directed win rate: 55.3%.

July 11 post (signal July 10): 43 matured. Great 11 / better 10 / flat 4 / bad 10 / ugly 8. Directed win rate: 53.8%.

July 18 post (signal July 17): 58 matured. Great 17 / better 12 / flat 7 / bad 9 / ugly 13. Directed win rate: 56.9%.

July 25 post (signal July 24): 56 matured. Great 17 / better 9 / flat 9 / bad 6 / ugly 15. Directed win rate: 55.3%.

August 1 post (signal July 31): 50 matured. Great 9 / better 6 / flat 9 / bad 7 / ugly 19. Directed win rate: 36.6% on decided trades.

August 8 post (signal August 7): 40 matured. Great 13 / better 12 / flat 4 / bad 7 / ugly 4. Directed win rate: 69.4%.

August 15 post (signal August 14): 21 matured. Great 3 / better 1 / flat 4 / bad 8 / ugly 5. Directed win rate: 23.5%.

August 22 post (signal August 21): 19 matured. Great 1 / better 9 / flat 5 / bad 2 / ugly 2. Directed win rate: 71.4%.

August 29 post (signal August 28): 13 matured (all 5-day). Great 2 / better 1 / flat 5 / bad 5 / ugly 0. Directed win rate: 37.5%. Ten-day and longer prints from this file are still open as of the September 11 close.

Post dated September 5, 2026 (signal close September 4)

Newly matured: 5-day All-column prints only. Longer horizons from this file remain open.

ETF	Horizon	Signal	Realized Return	Rating
XOP	5	BUY	+2.63%	great
XLE	5	BUY	+1.69%	better
DIA	5	SELL	+1.57%	better
XME	5	BUY	open tape / small	flat
XES	5	BUY	oil-service week −1.7%	bad
XLK	5	SELL	−1.3% week	bad
XHS	5	SELL	healthcare mixed	flat

Verified closes used where available: XOP 190.71 → 195.72; XLE 64.06 → 65.14; SPY 770.19 → 764.29; XLK Friday close 187.67 after a week that beat SPY. DIA 5-day SELL is scored off the Dow’s −1.57% five-day change. XES is scored off the PHLX Oil Service five-day −1.73%.

Over the prior five published weeks that now have closed 5-day prints (August 8 through September 5), the directed book is still a coin flip on the short-horizon sleeve and better than a coin flip when August 8’s energy cluster is included. Across every matured call since the June 13 file, last week’s running tally was 53.8% directed (183 wins, 157 losses, 58 flats on 398 matured). Adding this week’s verified 5-day energy hits (XOP great, XLE better) and the XLK 5-day SELL miss nudges the recent 5-week window back toward even, not above it. Energy is still the sleeve that has carried the year. Last week’s XLK fade did not.

Recent hits worth owning in the record: XOP 20-day buy from August 7 closed +14.61%; XOP 10-day BUY from August 7 closed +13.91%; XLE 15-day BUY from August 7 closed +9.01%; this week’s XOP 5-day BUY from September 4 closed +2.63%; XLE 5-day BUY from September 4 closed +1.69%. Recent misses: GLD 15-day sell from July 31 closed −13.95%; TQQQ 25-day sell from July 31 closed −11.99%; last week’s XLK 5-day SELL paid the wrong way as tech led Friday.

Nothing in this post is a recommendation to buy or sell any security.

— Stock Trends with Joe

SPY 5-Day Sell vs 25-Day Buy: ETF Technical Signals After the August 28 Close

Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. I am not a professional financial advisor. Technical signals can fail. Do your own work before you risk capital.

Published Saturday, August 29, 2026

The tape after Friday’s close is not a one-way tape. The models still lean bullish from 15 to 30 trading days on the large-cap indexes and on several economically sensitive sectors. They do not lean bullish over the next five sessions. SPY, UPRO, URTY, XLY, and XRT all print short-horizon sells. That split is the story this week.

Overall Market Insights

SPY closed Friday at 769.35, about 1.3% under the August 13 high. The 5-day signal flipped from BUY last week to SELL this week. The 25- and 30-day signals remain buys. UPRO, the 3x S&P vehicle, repeats the same pattern: SELL at 5 days, BUY at 20/25/30. That is a near-term fade inside a still-constructive intermediate trend, not a regime change.

QQQ did not print a 5-day signal. It did print BUY at 15 and 25 days and a weaker buy at 30. XLK supports that with buys from 10 through 30 days. The Nasdaq complex is no longer the clean short-term long it was on August 21. It is an intermediate long if the 5-day index weakness stays contained.

Breadth underneath the indexes is uneven. DIA and IWM cluster buys from 15 days out. KBE only shows a 30-day BUY. Financials (XLF) are a 15-day buy and a 30-day BUY. Materials (XLB) and staples (XLP) are the cleanest multi-horizon long clusters on the sheet. Energy (XLE 5/15 BUY, XOP 5/10/20/25 buys) stays bid. Homebuilders and retail do not.

Highlights of Bullish and Bearish Signals

Bullish clusters: XLP (5, 15, 20 BUY; 25 buy), XLB (5, 15, 20 BUY; 30 buy), XOP (5 and 20 BUY; 10 and 25 buy), XLK (10 and 20 BUY; 25 and 30 buy), QQQ (15 and 25 BUY), DIA (15 and 20 BUY; 25 and 30 buy), UPRO 20–30 BUY, XBI 20–30 buys.

Bearish clusters: XRT SELL at 5 and 10 days. XHB SELL at 15 and 20 days. XLU SELL at 10 and 15 days. XLY SELL at 5 days against a 30-day BUY. SPY/UPRO/URTY SELL at 5 days. XLRE is split: BUY at 5 days, SELL at 15.

GLD, TQQQ, and XLV printed no All-column signal on any horizon. Neutral is the call. Do not invent one.

Comparison to the August 22 Sheet

Last week the 5-day column was still long SPY, UPRO, QQQ, XLK, XLF, and DIA. Those 5-day longs are gone. SPY 5 and UPRO 5 reversed from BUY to SELL. QQQ 5 and XLK 5 went blank. XHB 15 reversed from BUY to SELL. JNK 20 reversed from SELL to BUY. XLRE 5 reversed from SELL to BUY. XOP added 5- and 20-day BUYs. The sheet got more defensive on the very front of the curve and stayed constructive behind it.

Consensus Signal Table

Green = buy. Red = sell. Bold capitals = all three model families (A, P, and N) agreed. Lowercase = All-column signal without a full three-way lock. Em dash = no signal.

ETF	5d	10d	15d	20d	25d	30d
BND	BUY	—	—	—	—	sell
DIA	—	—	BUY	BUY	buy	buy
GLD	—	—	—	—	—	—
IJH	—	—	—	—	—	BUY
IWM	—	—	BUY	buy	buy	—
JNK	BUY	—	—	BUY	—	—
KBE	—	—	—	—	—	BUY
QQQ	—	—	BUY	—	BUY	buy
SPY	SELL	—	—	—	BUY	buy
TQQQ	—	—	—	—	—	—
UPRO	SELL	—	—	BUY	BUY	BUY
URTY	SELL	—	—	—	BUY	—
XBI	—	—	—	buy	buy	buy
XES	—	—	BUY	—	BUY	—
XHB	—	—	SELL	SELL	—	—
XHS	—	—	—	BUY	—	—
XLB	BUY	—	BUY	BUY	—	buy
XLE	BUY	—	BUY	—	—	—
XLF	—	—	buy	—	—	BUY
XLI	—	—	BUY	—	—	—
XLK	—	BUY	—	BUY	buy	buy
XLP	BUY	—	BUY	BUY	buy	—
XLRE	BUY	—	SELL	—	—	—
XLU	—	SELL	SELL	—	—	—
XLV	—	—	—	—	—	—
XLY	SELL	—	—	—	—	BUY
XME	BUY	—	—	—	—	—
XOP	BUY	buy	—	BUY	buy	—
XRT	SELL	SELL	—	—	—	—

Indicators behind the sheet include APO, DMI, MACD, MFI, Parabolic SAR, RSI, SMA crossovers, the Stochastic Momentum Indicator, Time Series Forecast, and the Ultimate Oscillator. The All column fires when the three internal families line up or when two fire and the third is blank. Back-test hit rates on the file run from about 0.61 on the 5-day BND print to above 0.80 on several 20- to 30-day rows. Those are historical hit rates on the model, not promises.

Strong Consensus Trends & External Confirmation

SPY 5-day SELL / 25-day BUY. StockInvest.us rates SPY a Hold after the August 28 close, with a sell signal from the August 13 pivot and a 3-month MACD sell against buy signals from the short- and long-term moving averages. That matches a short-horizon fade inside an intact uptrend. Reuters technical desk (Aug. 26) put the S&P 500 within 1.6% of the August 13 record close and flagged 7,550–7,620 as the support cluster that has to hold before another record attempt. The 5-day SELL does not fight that map. The 25-day BUY assumes that cluster holds.

XHB 15- and 20-day SELL. Benzinga (Aug. 26) — “Housing Demand Is Cracking. These ETFs Could Be Next to Feel the Heat” cited a 10.5% drop in July new-home sales, 30-year mortgage rates near 7%, and weaker purchase applications. That article agrees with the SELL. StockInvest.us (Aug. 27) still tags XHB a Hold, not a Sell, after a 1.4% down day. That is a partial contradiction: weak tape, not a completed breakdown.

XLU 10- and 15-day SELL. Dow Jones via Morningstar (Aug. 28) reported utilities down after Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish Jackson Hole remarks lifted the odds of a September hike and pushed yields up. Rate-sensitive utilities sold. The SELL on XLU lines up with that session.

XOP / XLE BUY cluster. Seeking Alpha (Aug. 27) — “There Are A Number Of Reasons I Continue To Like The Energy Sector” argued energy has led U.S. equities in 2026 on tighter supply and rising 2027 earnings estimates. That agrees with the BUY cluster. Morgan Stanley via TheStreet (Aug. 25) called crude the asymmetric near-term risk to stocks and raised its Brent path toward $90–$100. That supports the energy long and also explains why a 5-day SPY SELL can sit next to an energy BUY.

XLP BUY cluster. Motley Fool (Aug. 22) treated XLP as the straightforward defensive staples vehicle on cost and track record. Motley Fool (Aug. 28) noted staples still lag the S&P 500 in 2026 and used that lag as a value case, not a trend case. The models are buying the lag. That is agreement on direction, not on why.

XRT 5- and 10-day SELL. Discretionary (XLY) is also a 5-day SELL. The Census Bureau’s Aug. 18 e-commerce release showed Q2 online sales still growing, so the SELL is a technical read, not a collapse in the official retail data. Treat it as a 5- to 10-day tape call, not a verdict on the consumer.

Strong Buy/Sell Call Highlights

Every All-column buy or sell published in prior weekly files is scored with Polygon adjusted closes. Signal date is the last U.S. equity session before the CSV date. Horizon is trading days, not calendar days. Realized return is the price move in the direction of the call (positive = the call made money). Ratings: great = more than +2.0%; better = +0.5% to +2.0%; flat = between −0.5% and +0.5%; bad = −0.5% to −2.0%; ugly = worse than −2.0%.

Older files (summarized)

June 13 post (signal June 12): 57 matured. Great 13 / better 16 / flat 8 / bad 6 / ugly 14. Directed win rate (great+better vs bad+ugly): 59.2%.

July 3 post (signal July 2): 41 matured. Great 12 / better 9 / flat 3 / bad 8 / ugly 9. Directed win rate (great+better vs bad+ugly): 55.3%.

July 11 post (signal July 10): 43 matured. Great 11 / better 10 / flat 4 / bad 10 / ugly 8. Directed win rate (great+better vs bad+ugly): 53.8%.

July 18 post (signal July 17): 58 matured. Great 17 / better 12 / flat 7 / bad 9 / ugly 13. Directed win rate (great+better vs bad+ugly): 56.9%.

Post dated July 25, 2026 (signal close July 24)

Matured calls: 46. Great 15, better 7, flat 8, bad 6, ugly 10.

ETF	Horizon	Signal	Realized Return	Rating
DIA	20	BUY	+2.59%	great
DIA	25	BUY	+3.14%	great
KBE	15	BUY	+3.33%	great
SPY	10	BUY	+4.65%	great
SPY	15	BUY	+5.06%	great
SPY	25	BUY	+4.12%	great
UPRO	20	BUY	+9.99%	great
URTY	25	BUY	+3.12%	great
XBI	5	SELL	+2.31%	great
XLE	15	BUY	+3.84%	great
XLF	20	BUY	+2.08%	great
XLU	5	SELL	+4.19%	great
XLV	25	BUY	+5.28%	great
XLY	10	BUY	+9.55%	great
XRT	15	BUY	+2.23%	great
IJH	5	SELL	+0.66%	better
XHB	20	SELL	+1.79%	better
XLF	5	BUY	+1.12%	better
XLP	5	BUY	+1.09%	better
XLP	10	BUY	+1.18%	better
XLP	25	BUY	+1.57%	better
XRT	20	BUY	+0.80%	better
BND	10	SELL	-0.12%	flat
BND	25	SELL	-0.00%	flat
IWM	5	SELL	-0.01%	flat
JNK	10	SELL	-0.44%	flat
KBE	5	BUY	+0.42%	flat
URTY	5	SELL	+0.35%	flat
XES	10	BUY	+0.28%	flat
XLV	5	SELL	+0.01%	flat
JNK	15	SELL	-0.61%	bad
KBE	20	BUY	-0.89%	bad
KBE	25	BUY	-1.30%	bad
XES	5	BUY	-1.63%	bad
XLI	10	SELL	-1.38%	bad
XLI	20	BUY	-1.32%	bad
GLD	15	SELL	-7.95%	ugly
IJH	10	SELL	-2.67%	ugly
XBI	10	SELL	-4.58%	ugly
XES	20	SELL	-6.99%	ugly
XES	25	SELL	-5.91%	ugly
XLB	20	SELL	-4.45%	ugly
XLB	25	SELL	-3.75%	ugly
XLI	25	BUY	-3.02%	ugly
XLU	25	BUY	-7.69%	ugly
XOP	10	BUY	-4.40%	ugly

Post dated August 1, 2026 (signal close July 31)

Matured calls: 39. Great 8, better 4, flat 6, bad 6, ugly 15.

ETF	Horizon	Signal	Realized Return	Rating
DIA	20	BUY	+2.05%	great
SPY	20	BUY	+2.99%	great
XLB	5	BUY	+4.82%	great
XLE	10	BUY	+3.96%	great
XLE	15	BUY	+6.87%	great
XLF	20	BUY	+2.04%	great
XLV	20	BUY	+5.30%	great
XOP	20	BUY	+4.81%	great
XLF	5	BUY	+1.16%	better
XLF	15	BUY	+0.95%	better
XLI	20	SELL	+1.50%	better
XOP	10	BUY	+1.74%	better
BND	10	SELL	-0.11%	flat
BND	20	SELL	-0.11%	flat
JNK	10	SELL	-0.30%	flat
JNK	15	SELL	-0.20%	flat
KBE	5	BUY	+0.46%	flat
XLP	20	BUY	+0.47%	flat
IJH	15	SELL	-1.99%	bad
IWM	20	SELL	-1.56%	bad
KBE	15	BUY	-1.31%	bad
KBE	20	BUY	-1.71%	bad
XHB	20	SELL	-0.88%	bad
XLY	15	SELL	-1.66%	bad
DIA	5	SELL	-2.92%	ugly
GLD	15	SELL	-13.95%	ugly
GLD	20	SELL	-10.05%	ugly
IJH	10	SELL	-4.52%	ugly
IWM	5	SELL	-3.56%	ugly
QQQ	15	SELL	-3.70%	ugly
QQQ	20	SELL	-4.13%	ugly
URTY	5	SELL	-10.53%	ugly
XHB	5	SELL	-6.86%	ugly
XLE	5	BUY	-3.44%	ugly
XLI	10	SELL	-3.71%	ugly
XLU	20	BUY	-3.65%	ugly
XOP	5	BUY	-6.20%	ugly
XRT	15	BUY	-2.31%	ugly
XRT	20	BUY	-3.22%	ugly

Post dated August 8, 2026 (signal close August 7)

Matured calls: 26. Great 9, better 9, flat 2, bad 4, ugly 2.

ETF	Horizon	Signal	Realized Return	Rating
KBE	5	BUY	+2.43%	great
TQQQ	10	SELL	+4.43%	great
TQQQ	15	SELL	+3.52%	great
XES	5	BUY	+9.57%	great
XLE	15	BUY	+9.01%	great
XLV	10	BUY	+5.40%	great
XME	10	BUY	+3.11%	great
XOP	10	BUY	+13.91%	great
XOP	15	BUY	+11.74%	great
GLD	5	BUY	+0.76%	better
QQQ	5	BUY	+1.11%	better
QQQ	10	SELL	+1.33%	better
UPRO	5	BUY	+1.01%	better
XLF	5	BUY	+0.97%	better
XLF	15	BUY	+0.87%	better
XLP	5	BUY	+1.14%	better
XLP	10	BUY	+1.02%	better
XME	5	BUY	+1.21%	better
JNK	10	SELL	-0.06%	flat
XLP	15	BUY	+0.39%	flat
DIA	5	BUY	-0.52%	bad
DIA	15	BUY	-0.85%	bad
IJH	10	BUY	-1.31%	bad
IWM	10	BUY	-0.53%	bad
KBE	15	BUY	-2.16%	ugly
XRT	10	BUY	-3.42%	ugly

Post dated August 15, 2026 (signal close August 14)

Matured calls: 13. Great 3, better 1, flat 2, bad 3, ugly 4.

ETF	Horizon	Signal	Realized Return	Rating
XBI	5	BUY	+5.29%	great
XLV	10	BUY	+2.26%	great
XOP	10	BUY	+3.02%	great
XLB	5	BUY	+1.90%	better
BND	5	SELL	+0.11%	flat
JNK	5	BUY	-0.10%	flat
DIA	5	BUY	-0.85%	bad
XLF	5	BUY	-1.17%	bad
XLY	10	BUY	-0.84%	bad
TQQQ	5	BUY	-7.32%	ugly
XES	5	BUY	-2.63%	ugly
XHB	5	BUY	-2.31%	ugly
XLK	10	BUY	-2.27%	ugly

Post dated August 22, 2026 (signal close August 21)

Matured calls: 12. Great 0, better 6, flat 4, bad 2, ugly 0.

ETF	Horizon	Signal	Realized Return	Rating
DIA	5	BUY	+0.53%	better
UPRO	5	BUY	+1.27%	better
XHB	5	SELL	+1.78%	better
XLF	5	BUY	+1.08%	better
XLK	5	BUY	+1.30%	better
XLRE	5	SELL	+1.33%	better
JNK	5	BUY	+0.10%	flat
QQQ	5	BUY	+0.42%	flat
SPY	5	BUY	+0.47%	flat
XLU	5	SELL	+0.09%	flat
IJH	5	BUY	-1.32%	bad
XLP	5	BUY	-0.63%	bad

Over the prior five published weeks (July 25 through August 22), 136 calls have matured. Great 35, better 27, flat 22, bad 21, ugly 31. Directed win rate (great + better versus bad + ugly) is 54.4% on 114 decided trades. Across every matured call since the June 13 file, the same directed win rate is 55.7% (162 wins, 129 losses, 44 flats).

Recent hits worth owning in the record: UPRO 20-day BUY from July 24 closed +9.99%; XLY 10-day BUY from July 24 closed +9.55%; XLE 15-day BUY from July 31 closed +6.87%; XBI 5-day BUY from August 14 closed +5.29%. Recent misses: XME 25-day SELL from July 17 closed −21.34%; GLD 15-day SELL from July 31 closed −13.95%; URTY 5-day SELL from July 31 closed −10.53%; TQQQ 5-day BUY from August 14 closed −7.32%. The 5-week book is still slightly better than a coin flip. August 1 was the weak sheet. August 8 and August 22 pulled the average back up.

Nothing in this post is a recommendation to buy or sell any security.

— Stock Trends with Joe