Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. I am not a professional financial advisor. Technical signals can fail. Do your own work before you risk capital.
QQQ 20–30 Day Buy vs Retail 5–10 Day Sell: ETF Technical Signals After the September 11 Close
Published Saturday, September 12, 2026
SPY closed Friday at 764.29, down 0.77% from the September 4 close of 770.19 and 1.1% on the week. The S&P 500 index itself finished at 7,656.98, up 0.86% on Friday after four down sessions, as August CPI printed +0.4% and oil slipped off Thursday’s $102 WTI spike. Last week’s 10-day SPY SELL is still open. The new sheet drops that short and rebuilds the intermediate S&P and Nasdaq bid from 15 days out. Energy stays long. Retail and regional banks stay short.
Overall Market Insights
The front of the curve is no longer a tech fade. XLK flipped from last week’s 5- and 10-day SELL to a three-model BUY at 5 days and a BUY at 25 days. QQQ printed three-model BUY at 20, 25, and 30 days. That is the week’s index-level change. Friday’s hardware rip (Dell +12%, HPE +12%) after Oracle’s capex print is the tape that sits under the flip. SPY is a Buy at 15 days and BUY at 25 and 30. UPRO follows at 25 and a three-model BUY at 30. TQQQ is the outlier: a three-model SELL at 10 days against that Nasdaq long. Do not flatten those two into one call.
Energy did not leave. XLE is a three-model BUY at 10 and 15 days. XOP is a three-model BUY at 5 days, a Buy at 10, and a Buy at 25. XES is a three-model BUY at 5 and 15 days. WTI settled near $100.05 on Friday after Thursday’s $102.48 print. Brent settled near $104.61. The models were already long energy when crude was in the $90s. They stayed long after the $100 break.
The shorts are specific. XRT is a three-model SELL at 5, 10, and 30 days. KBE is a three-model SELL at 5 and 20 days. XLF is a three-model SELL at 5 days against three-model BUYs at 25 and 30. That is a bank-ETF fade in the front, not a financials verdict. BND and JNK print Sell clusters through 15–25 days. XLU is a three-model SELL at 15 days. XLRE is a Sell at 25. Homebuilders (XHB) went blank on the All column this week after two weeks of 20- and 30-day SELLs. Neutral is the call. Do not invent one.
Highlights of Bullish and Bearish Signals
Bullish clusters: QQQ (20, 25, 30 BUY), SPY (15 buy; 25, 30 BUY), XLB (15, 25 BUY; 20, 30 buy), XLE (10, 15 BUY), XOP (5 BUY; 10, 25 buy), XES (5, 15 BUY), XLV (15, 20 BUY; 25 buy), XLY (25, 30 BUY), XLF (25, 30 BUY), XME (10, 20 BUY; 30 buy), XLK (5 BUY; 25 buy), UPRO (25 buy; 30 BUY), XLI (15, 25 BUY), IWM (20, 30 buy), XBI 30 BUY, XHS 30 buy, GLD 15 BUY, XLP 20 BUY, DIA 30 buy.
Bearish clusters: XRT SELL at 5, 10, and 30 days. KBE SELL at 5 and 20 days. JNK SELL at 10 and 15 days. BND Sell at 10 through 25 days. TQQQ SELL at 10 days. XLF SELL at 5 days. XLU SELL at 15 days. IJH SELL at 30 days. XLRE sell at 25 days.
Comparison to the September 5 Sheet
Last week the 5-day column was short XLK and DIA and long XLE, XOP, XES, and XME. The 5-day XLK SELL did not pay: technology led Friday and XLK closed the week higher. The 5-day energy BUYs did pay. XLE rose from 64.06 on September 4 to 65.14 on September 11 (+1.69%). XOP rose from 190.71 to 195.72 (+2.63%). SPY’s 10-day SELL from last week is one session short of maturity and sits on a 0.77% decline in the fund. That print is still open.
The new sheet killed the XLK fade, rebuilt QQQ as a 20- to 30-day three-model BUY, and extended energy one more week. XHB’s 20- and 30-day SELLs expired off the All column. XRT added a 5-day and a 30-day SELL to last week’s 10-day SELL. KBE dropped the 30-day SELL and added a 5-day SELL. Materials (XLB) moved from a 20- to 30-day cluster to a 15- to 30-day cluster. Healthcare (XLV) went from a single weak 25-day buy to a 15- to 25-day BUY stack. The curve is long the S&P and Nasdaq behind 15 days, long energy in the middle, and short retail and regional banks in the front.
Consensus Signal Table
Green = buy. Red = sell. Bold capitals = all three model families (A, P, and N) agreed. Lowercase = All-column signal without a full three-way lock. Em dash = no signal.
| ETF | 5d | 10d | 15d | 20d | 25d | 30d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BND | — | sell | sell | sell | sell | — |
| DIA | — | — | — | — | — | buy |
| GLD | — | — | BUY | — | — | — |
| IJH | — | — | — | — | — | SELL |
| IWM | — | — | — | buy | — | buy |
| JNK | — | SELL | SELL | — | — | — |
| KBE | SELL | — | — | SELL | — | — |
| QQQ | — | — | — | BUY | BUY | BUY |
| SPY | — | — | buy | — | BUY | BUY |
| TQQQ | — | SELL | — | — | — | — |
| UPRO | — | — | — | — | buy | BUY |
| URTY | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| XBI | — | — | — | — | — | BUY |
| XES | BUY | — | BUY | — | — | — |
| XHB | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| XHS | — | — | — | — | — | buy |
| XLB | — | — | BUY | buy | BUY | buy |
| XLE | — | BUY | BUY | — | — | — |
| XLF | SELL | — | — | — | BUY | BUY |
| XLI | — | — | BUY | — | BUY | — |
| XLK | BUY | — | — | — | buy | — |
| XLP | — | — | — | BUY | — | — |
| XLRE | — | — | — | — | sell | — |
| XLU | — | — | SELL | — | — | — |
| XLV | — | — | BUY | BUY | buy | — |
| XLY | — | — | — | — | BUY | BUY |
| XME | — | BUY | — | BUY | — | buy |
| XOP | BUY | buy | — | — | buy | — |
| XRT | SELL | SELL | — | — | — | SELL |
Indicators behind the sheet include APO, DMI, MACD, MFI, Parabolic SAR, RSI, SMA crossovers, the Stochastic Momentum Indicator, Time Series Forecast, and the Ultimate Oscillator. The All column fires when the three internal families line up or when two fire and the third is blank. Back-test hit rates on this file run from about 0.62 on the 5-day KBE SELL to 0.91 on the 30-day DIA buy. Those are historical hit rates on the model, not promises.
Strong Consensus Trends & External Confirmation
QQQ 20-, 25-, and 30-day BUY / XLK 5-day BUY. Reuters (Sept. 11) logged Friday’s close: S&P 500 +0.86% to 7,656.98, Nasdaq +0.96%, Dell +12% to a record after Oracle’s quarter and guidance beat. That session is why XLK flipped from last week’s 5-day SELL to a 5-day BUY. Benzinga (Sept. 11) put XLK up 1.7% midday and QQQ up 1.2% as the four-day slide snapped. That agrees with the new 5-day XLK BUY. It does not, by itself, prove the 20- to 30-day QQQ BUY; that print needs the next month, not Friday. Motley Fool (Sept. 11) had QQQ at $714.88 midday (+0.87%) and framed the bounce as oil cooling offsetting sticky CPI. That is a one-day confirmation, not a 30-day one.
XLE / XOP / XES BUY cluster. Seeking Alpha / Elliott Gue (Sept. 8) rated XLE and XOP strong buys and argued the funds still price long-term oil near $67.50 even after XLE’s September 2 all-time closing high and XOP’s highest close since 2014. That agrees with the 10- and 15-day XLE BUYs and the 5-day XOP BUY. TS2 (Sept. 10) documented Thursday’s spike: Brent $106.94, WTI $101.67, with XLE flat to down intraday while XOP was +0.85%. That split matches the sheet: XOP (upstream) is the cleaner 5-day long; XLE is the 10- to 15-day long. Friday WTI settled $100.05. The models do not need $106 oil to stay long. They need the equity curve, which is still up.
XRT 5-, 10-, and 30-day SELL. VaultCharts sector brief (as of Sept. 11) put XLY 1-month relative strength at −3.1 points versus SPY and listed XHB 1-month RS at −8.1 points. XRT closed Friday at 84.79, +1.39% on the day after a weak week. The 5- and 10-day SELLs are reading that lag, not Friday’s bounce. A one-day retail pop does not cancel a three-horizon SELL stack.
KBE 5- and 20-day SELL / XLF 5-day SELL against 25- and 30-day BUY. Regional banks lagged on VaultCharts (KRE 1-month RS −3.4 points). XLF closed Friday at 57.25. The 5-day financials fade is a rate call into next week’s FOMC. The 25- and 30-day XLF BUYs are the model saying the same sector can stabilize after that meeting. Treat them as two trades, not one.
SPY 15-day buy / 25- and 30-day BUY. Reuters and Barron’s both logged the Friday rebound after a four-day decline and a 5-day S&P loss of 0.80%. Last week’s 10-day SELL sat on that down week. The new sheet moved the long out to 15–30 days. That is consistent with a bounce off a four-day slide, not a new high. SPY is still 1.7% under the August 13 area high.
Strong Buy/Sell Call Highlights
Every All-column buy or sell published in prior weekly files is scored with session closes. Signal date is the last U.S. equity session before the CSV date. Horizon is trading days, not calendar days. Realized return is the price move in the direction of the call (positive = the call made money). Ratings: great = more than +2.0%; better = +0.5% to +2.0%; flat = between −0.5% and +0.5%; bad = −0.5% to −2.0%; ugly = worse than −2.0%.
Older files (summarized)
June 13 post (signal June 12): 57 matured. Great 13 / better 16 / flat 8 / bad 6 / ugly 14. Directed win rate (great+better vs bad+ugly): 59.2%.
July 3 post (signal July 2): 41 matured. Great 12 / better 9 / flat 3 / bad 8 / ugly 9. Directed win rate: 55.3%.
July 11 post (signal July 10): 43 matured. Great 11 / better 10 / flat 4 / bad 10 / ugly 8. Directed win rate: 53.8%.
July 18 post (signal July 17): 58 matured. Great 17 / better 12 / flat 7 / bad 9 / ugly 13. Directed win rate: 56.9%.
July 25 post (signal July 24): 56 matured. Great 17 / better 9 / flat 9 / bad 6 / ugly 15. Directed win rate: 55.3%.
August 1 post (signal July 31): 50 matured. Great 9 / better 6 / flat 9 / bad 7 / ugly 19. Directed win rate: 36.6% on decided trades.
August 8 post (signal August 7): 40 matured. Great 13 / better 12 / flat 4 / bad 7 / ugly 4. Directed win rate: 69.4%.
August 15 post (signal August 14): 21 matured. Great 3 / better 1 / flat 4 / bad 8 / ugly 5. Directed win rate: 23.5%.
August 22 post (signal August 21): 19 matured. Great 1 / better 9 / flat 5 / bad 2 / ugly 2. Directed win rate: 71.4%.
August 29 post (signal August 28): 13 matured (all 5-day). Great 2 / better 1 / flat 5 / bad 5 / ugly 0. Directed win rate: 37.5%. Ten-day and longer prints from this file are still open as of the September 11 close.
Post dated September 5, 2026 (signal close September 4)
Newly matured: 5-day All-column prints only. Longer horizons from this file remain open.
| ETF | Horizon | Signal | Realized Return | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| XOP | 5 | BUY | +2.63% | great |
| XLE | 5 | BUY | +1.69% | better |
| DIA | 5 | SELL | +1.57% | better |
| XME | 5 | BUY | open tape / small | flat |
| XES | 5 | BUY | oil-service week −1.7% | bad |
| XLK | 5 | SELL | −1.3% week | bad |
| XHS | 5 | SELL | healthcare mixed | flat |
Verified closes used where available: XOP 190.71 → 195.72; XLE 64.06 → 65.14; SPY 770.19 → 764.29; XLK Friday close 187.67 after a week that beat SPY. DIA 5-day SELL is scored off the Dow’s −1.57% five-day change. XES is scored off the PHLX Oil Service five-day −1.73%.
Over the prior five published weeks that now have closed 5-day prints (August 8 through September 5), the directed book is still a coin flip on the short-horizon sleeve and better than a coin flip when August 8’s energy cluster is included. Across every matured call since the June 13 file, last week’s running tally was 53.8% directed (183 wins, 157 losses, 58 flats on 398 matured). Adding this week’s verified 5-day energy hits (XOP great, XLE better) and the XLK 5-day SELL miss nudges the recent 5-week window back toward even, not above it. Energy is still the sleeve that has carried the year. Last week’s XLK fade did not.
Recent hits worth owning in the record: XOP 20-day buy from August 7 closed +14.61%; XOP 10-day BUY from August 7 closed +13.91%; XLE 15-day BUY from August 7 closed +9.01%; this week’s XOP 5-day BUY from September 4 closed +2.63%; XLE 5-day BUY from September 4 closed +1.69%. Recent misses: GLD 15-day sell from July 31 closed −13.95%; TQQQ 25-day sell from July 31 closed −11.99%; last week’s XLK 5-day SELL paid the wrong way as tech led Friday.
Nothing in this post is a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
— Stock Trends with Joe
