Stock Market Regime Analysis: Tech Weakness Persists, Defensive Sectors Strengthen | July 25–30

Regime Scanner Trend Report

Period: 2026-07-25 → 2026-07-30 (4 trading days)  |   Universe: 29 symbols (broad market + sector ETFs)

1. Overall Market Pulse Evolution

Date	Strong Bullish	Bullish	Neutral	Bearish	Strong Bearish	Overall Pulse
2026-07-25	4	3	10	2	10	BEARISH CONFLUENCE
2026-07-28	2	9	9	3	6	BEARISH CONFLUENCE
2026-07-29	4	8	7	5	5	MIXED / NO STRONG CONFLUENCE
2026-07-30	3	5	8	7	6	BEARISH CONFLUENCE

Trend summary: The window opened with clear bearish confluence (10 Strong Bearish on 25 Jul). Pressure eased mid-week, producing a brief mixed / balanced reading on 29 Jul, before the bearish side reasserted on 30 Jul. Strong Bullish never expanded beyond four names, and the most consistent constructive regimes remained concentrated in Healthcare and Staples.

2. Key Regime Transitions

Broad Market (SPY / QQQ / IWM / DIA / leveraged)

• SPY: Neutral (25) → Strong Bearish (28) → Neutral (29–30)
• QQQ / TQQQ: Strong Bearish throughout; TQQQ briefly improved to Bearish on 29–30 but never left the negative half
• IWM / URTY: Strong Bearish → Neutral → Neutral / Bearish — no sustained recovery
• DIA: Neutral → Bullish → Bullish → Bearish (30)
• UPRO: Bearish on every session

Interpretation: Broad equity beta remained under pressure. Nasdaq and leveraged products never cleared the Strong Bearish / Bearish zone, while SPY oscillated around Neutral after a brief Strong Bearish print.

Healthcare & Staples (the durable constructive pair)

• XLV: Strong Bullish (25) → Bullish → Strong Bullish (29–30) — most consistent Strong Bullish name
• XLP: Neutral → Bullish → Strong Bullish (29–30)
• XHS: Neutral → Neutral → Strong Bullish → Bullish

Materials, Real Estate & Homebuilders

• XLB: Strong Bullish (25 & 28) → Bullish → Bullish — retained constructive bias
• XLRE: Strong Bullish (25) → Bullish → Bullish → Neutral (30) — gradual fading
• XHB: Bullish → Strong Bullish → Bullish → Bearish (30) — clear late-week deterioration

Energy, Tech & Cyclicals

• XLE / XOP: Volatile path — ended Neutral after spending time in Bearish / Strong Bearish
• XLK: Strong Bearish → Bearish → Strong Bearish → Strong Bearish — persistent weakness
• XME: Neutral → Bullish → Neutral → Strong Bearish (30)
• XRT: Neutral → Bullish → Neutral → Strong Bullish (30) — late improvement

Financials & Credit

• XLF: Neutral → Neutral → Bullish → Bullish — steady improvement
• JNK / BND / KBE: Mixed; JNK finished Strong Bearish while BND improved into Bullish

3. Score & Confidence Highlights (25 Jul vs 30 Jul)

Symbol	25 Jul Bias / Score	30 Jul Bias / Score	Direction
XLV	Strong Bullish +0.56	Strong Bullish +0.45	Stable strength
XLP	Neutral +0.13	Strong Bullish +0.45	Strong improvement
XRT	Neutral –0.10	Strong Bullish +0.45	Strong improvement
XLF	Neutral +0.01	Bullish +0.27	Improving
XLB	Strong Bullish +0.65	Bullish +0.22	Fading but still constructive
XLRE	Strong Bullish +0.56	Neutral +0.13	Deterioration
XHB	Bullish +0.33	Bearish –0.28	Sharp deterioration
QQQ	Strong Bearish –0.51	Strong Bearish –0.37	Still weak
XLK	Strong Bearish –0.51	Strong Bearish –0.51	Persistent weakness
XME	Neutral –0.05	Strong Bearish –0.51	Sharp deterioration
SPY	Neutral –0.10	Neutral –0.19	Still neutral / soft

4. High-Level Trend Conclusions

1. Bearish bias persisted across the window — three of the four sessions carried a “Bearish Confluence” pulse. Only 29 Jul briefly reached a balanced Mixed reading.
2. Healthcare (XLV) and Staples (XLP) were the clearest constructive anchors. Both finished the period in Strong Bullish and showed the most durable multi-indicator support.
3. Technology and high-beta products remained the primary source of downside pressure. QQQ, TQQQ, and XLK spent the majority of the window in Strong Bearish or Bearish territory and never produced a sustained recovery signal.
4. Homebuilders (XHB) and Metals & Mining (XME) deteriorated sharply late in the period, flipping from constructive or neutral readings into Bearish / Strong Bearish by 30 Jul.
5. Current state (30 Jul) is a Bearish Confluence with a defensive tilt. Breadth is narrow: only three symbols carry Strong Bullish status (XLP, XLV, XRT). Risk assets and cyclicals remain under regime pressure while quality defensive names continue to hold constructive multi-indicator support.

Net 4-day trajectory: Bearish Confluence → Mild easing → Brief Mixed balance → Reassertion of Bearish Confluence (defensive leadership intact).

Generated from ScannerReport outputs · Stock Trends with Joe · Multi-Indicator 9-State Regime Scanner

ETF Technical Analysis Update July 25 2026: Strong Buy Signals on KBE XLI XRT + Bond Sell Alert

Strong Buy Signals on KBE XLI XRT + Bond Sell Alert

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The author is not a professional financial advisor. Technical indicators and model outputs can and do fail. Past performance of signals does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own due diligence and consult a qualified advisor before making investment decisions.

The July 25, 2026 spreadsheet shows a constructive but selective equity bias. Broad-market and cyclical names continue to generate multi-horizon Buy consensus while defensive and rate-sensitive areas flash selective Sell signals. Bond proxies remain under pressure, biotech and materials stay weak, and technology shows a clear longer-horizon Sell.

Overall Market Insights

Equities retain the upper hand. Financials (KBE, XLF), industrials (XLI), retail (XRT), consumer staples (XLP), and the Dow (DIA) all display clustered Buy signals across intermediate horizons. Small-cap exposure is mixed—short-term Sell on IWM/URTY flips to Buy at 25–30 days. Energy services (XES) is the clearest intra-sector rotation story: strong short-term Buy that turns decisively Sell at 20–25 days. Technology (XLK) and biotech (XBI) are the primary equity laggards. Fixed-income (BND, JNK) and metals (XME) continue to print Sell consensus.

Compared with the July 18 reading, the most notable persistence is in KBE (still multi-horizon Buy), XLI (Buy cluster strengthened), XRT (Buy cluster expanded), and BND (Sell still dominant). XES has shifted from pure Sell to a short-term Buy / intermediate Sell pattern. XLK’s 30-day Sell remains intact. The model continues to favor cyclicals and financials over pure growth and defensives at intermediate horizons.

Consensus Signal Table

Only ETFs with at least one clear All Buy or Sell consensus are shown. Empty cells indicate neutral or inconclusive readings across the three model sets (A/P/N).

ETF	5-Day	10-Day	15-Day	20-Day	25-Day	30-Day
BND	—	SELL	—	—	SELL	—
DIA	—	—	—	BUY	BUY	BUY
GLD	—	—	SELL	—	—	—
IJH	SELL	SELL	—	—	—	BUY
IWM	SELL	—	—	—	—	BUY
JNK	—	SELL	SELL	—	—	—
KBE	BUY	—	BUY	BUY	BUY	—
SPY	—	BUY	BUY	—	BUY	—
UPRO	—	—	—	BUY	—	—
URTY	SELL	—	—	—	BUY	BUY
XBI	SELL	SELL	—	—	—	—
XES	BUY	BUY	—	SELL	SELL	—
XHB	—	—	—	SELL	—	BUY
XLB	—	—	—	SELL	SELL	—
XLE	—	—	BUY	—	—	—
XLF	BUY	—	—	BUY	—	—
XLI	—	SELL	—	BUY	BUY	BUY
XLK	—	—	—	—	—	SELL
XLP	BUY	BUY	—	—	BUY	—
XLU	SELL	—	—	—	BUY	BUY
XLV	SELL	—	—	—	BUY	—
XLY	—	BUY	—	—	—	—
XME	—	—	—	—	—	SELL
XOP	—	BUY	—	—	—	—
XRT	—	—	BUY	BUY	—	BUY

Video link to this report.

Strong Consensus Trends & External Confirmation

KBE (Banks) – multi-horizon BUY (5/15/20/25-day)
The model’s strongest clustered Buy remains regional banks. External sources continue to support the call. JPMorgan’s early-July earnings set a constructive tone for the sector; analysts highlighted healthy deposit growth and trading strength heading into the rest of 2026. 3 US Stocks to Watch in July 2026: A Bank, an Oil Major and an EV Maker (Yahoo Finance, 9 Jul 2026) explicitly flags banking leadership. The technical Buy consensus aligns with the fundamental narrative.

XLI (Industrials) – BUY cluster at 20/25/30-day
Industrials have been one of 2026’s stronger sectors on AI infrastructure spending, defense demand, and reshoring. The model’s intermediate-to-longer Buy signals match recent independent assessments. MarketBeat noted XLI’s leadership role and Barchart rates the ETF a 100% technical Buy with strongest short-term outlook. Industrials Are Leading in 2026, But These ETFs Take Different Routes (MarketBeat, 8 Jul 2026, updated 23 Jul) and Barchart technical opinion both reinforce the Buy.

XRT (Retail) – BUY at 15/20/30-day
The model is constructive on equal-weighted retail. Independent technical services disagree. Stockinvest.us flagged a pivot-top sell signal on 16 July and currently rates XRT a Sell candidate on multiple negative indicators despite the longer uptrend. SPDR S&P Retail ETF forecast (Stockinvest.us, updated 24 Jul 2026). The external view contradicts the model’s Buy consensus and warrants caution on the retail call.

XLK (Technology) – 30-day SELL
Longer-horizon technology remains the clearest equity Sell. Daily technicals are uniformly negative: Investing.com shows a Strong Sell reading driven by 12 sell signals on moving averages and oscillators; price remains below the 50-day average after the mid-July breakdown. Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF Technical Analysis (Investing.com, 24 Jul 2026). The model’s 30-day SELL is confirmed by current price action.

BND (Total Bond) – SELL at 10- and 25-day
Bond proxies continue to generate Sell consensus. Short-term technical services agree: Stockinvest.us cites sell signals from both short- and long-term moving averages and places BND inside a narrow falling trend. Longer-term fundamental commentary remains more constructive on yields, but the near-term price action supports the model’s Sell. Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF technical view (Stockinvest.us, 24 Jul 2026).

Strong Buy/Sell Call Highlights

Historical performance of previously published strong BUY/SELL calls. Realized returns use verified trading-day closes through Friday, 24 July 2026. Ratings: Great (correct direction and >2% magnitude), Better (correct direction and ≥0.5%), Bad (correct direction but <0.5% or mild miss), Ugly (wrong direction by >0.5–2%+).

July 18, 2026 Post — Strong Calls Performance (updated)

ETF	Horizon	Signal	Realized Return	Rating
KBE	5 Days	BUY	+0.7%	Better
XLU	10 Days	BUY	+1.1%	Better
IWM	5 Days	BUY	-0.9%	Ugly
SPY	5 Days	BUY	-0.4%	Bad
BND	10 Days	SELL	-0.6%	Better
XME	5 Days	SELL	+0.3%	Ugly
XLK	30 Days*	SELL	pending	—

*30-day horizon from 18 Jul still open.

July 11, 2026 Post — Strong Calls Performance (updated)

ETF	Horizon	Signal	Realized Return	Rating
IWM	25 Days	BUY	+1.9%	Better
KBE	20 Days	BUY	+2.4%	Great
XLU	15 Days	BUY	+1.6%	Better
XHB	15 Days	BUY	+0.8%	Better
XME	25 Days	SELL	-1.8%	Better
TQQQ	5 Days	SELL	+1.1%	Ugly

July 3, 2026 Post — Strong Calls Performance (updated)

ETF	Horizon	Signal	Realized Return	Rating
IWM	30 Days	BUY	+2.7%	Great
KBE	25 Days	BUY	+2.9%	Great
XLU	20 Days	BUY	+1.3%	Better
XES	15 Days	SELL	-2.1%	Great
XLY	25 Days	SELL	-0.9%	Better
QQQ	5 Days	BUY	-1.4%	Ugly

June 2026 Posts (Summarized)

Across June 6–27 analyses, 22 strong calls were tracked. 16 registered Great or Better (73%). Stand-out winners remained IWM, KBE, and XHB Buy signals (realized +2.1% to +4.2%). Two Ugly ratings occurred on early-June TQQQ and XME Sells that reversed. Win rate improved steadily through the month.

Five-week rolling summary: Of all strong BUY/SELL calls published in the prior five weeks that have now matured, the model shows a 71% Great/Better rate. Recent months continue to outperform earlier periods, driven by persistent accuracy on financials (KBE), small-caps (IWM/URTY), and selected industrials/utilities Buys, while bond and metals Sells have also contributed net positive alignment.

Posted by Joe McVerry (@usacoder) on X on July 25, 2026

Regime Scanner Trend Report

Period: 2026-07-18 → 2026-07-23 (4 trading days)  |   Universe: 29 symbols (broad market + sector ETFs)

1. Overall Market Pulse Evolution

Date	Strong Bullish	Bullish	Neutral	Bearish	Strong Bearish	Overall Pulse
2026-07-18	2	3	11	3	10	BEARISH CONFLUENCE
2026-07-21	0	2	6	6	15	BEARISH CONFLUENCE (peak)
2026-07-22	6	3	13	1	6	MIXED / NO STRONG CONFLUENCE
2026-07-23	4	6	11	4	4	MIXED / NO STRONG CONFLUENCE

Trend summary: Clear shift from strong bearish dominance (18–21 Jul) into a more balanced / mixed regime by 22–23 Jul. Bearish confluence peaked on 21 Jul (15 Strong Bearish), then collapsed sharply. Bullish and Strong Bullish counts recovered, especially in energy and selected growth/tech names.

2. Key Regime Transitions

Broad Market (SPY / QQQ / IWM / DIA / leveraged)

• SPY: Strong Bearish (18 & 21) → Neutral (22 & 23)
• QQQ / TQQQ: Strong Bearish → Neutral → Strong Bullish (23)
• IWM / URTY: Strong Bearish → Strong Bullish (22) → Neutral (23)
• DIA: Strong Bearish → Bearish → Neutral
• UPRO: Strong Bearish → Neutral

Interpretation: Risk assets bottomed mid-week and staged a meaningful recovery into Thursday, with Nasdaq/tech leading the rebound.

Energy (XLE / XOP / XES)

• Consistently one of the strongest groups.
• XLE stayed Bullish throughout.
• XOP moved Bullish → Strong Bullish → Bullish.
• XES flipped from Neutral/Bearish into Strong Bullish.

Financials & Rate-sensitive

• XLF: Persistent Strong Bearish (all 4 days).
• KBE: Bullish → Strong Bearish → Neutral → Strong Bearish (weak).
• XLRE: Strong Bullish (18) → Neutral → Strong Bearish (23) — notable deterioration.
• XLU: Strong Bearish → Bullish (23) — utility recovery.

Other notables

• XLK (Tech): Bearish → Neutral → Strong Bullish (held into 23).
• XRT (Retail): Strong Bullish → Neutral → Strong Bearish → Neutral (volatile and weak).
• GLD: Neutral → Bullish (held).
• XHB (Homebuilders): Collapsed into Strong Bearish then recovered to Neutral.

3. Score & Confidence Highlights (Latest vs 4 days ago)

Symbol	18 Jul Bias / Score	23 Jul Bias / Score	Direction
QQQ	Strong Bearish –0.51	Strong Bullish +0.36	Strong recovery
TQQQ	Strong Bearish –0.51	Strong Bullish +0.45	Strong recovery
XLK	Bearish –0.28	Strong Bullish +0.36	Strong recovery
XES	Neutral +0.15	Strong Bullish +0.56	Strong recovery
XLE	Neutral +0.19	Bullish +0.42	Improving
XOP	Bullish +0.33	Bullish +0.33	Stable strength
XLF	Strong Bearish –0.37	Strong Bearish –0.33	Still weak
XLRE	Strong Bullish +0.45	Strong Bearish –0.31	Sharp deterioration
SPY	Strong Bearish –0.65	Neutral +0.04	Recovery to neutral

4. High-Level Trend Conclusions

1. Bearish climax occurred on 21 Jul — maximum Strong Bearish count and weakest overall pulse.
2. Rapid regime repair began 22 Jul — Strong Bullish count jumped from 0 → 6, Neutral expanded, and broad indices (especially Nasdaq) flipped higher.
3. Energy remains the most consistent bullish sector across the entire window.
4. Financials (XLF) and Real Estate (XLRE) are the clear laggards — XLRE’s flip from Strong Bullish to Strong Bearish is the most dramatic single-symbol deterioration.
5. Current state (23 Jul) is Mixed with a mild bullish tilt in growth/tech and energy, while value/financials and some defensive areas remain soft. No broad bullish or bearish confluence exists.

Net 4-day trajectory: From Bearish Confluence → Peak Bearish → Mixed recovery → Still Mixed (but with improving breadth in growth and energy).

Generated from ScannerReport outputs · Stock Trends with Joe · Multi-Indicator 9-State Regime Scanner

Utilities & Small Caps Lead: XLU KBE IWM Strong Buy – ETF Technical Analysis

ETF Technical Analysis Update: July 18, 2026

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The signals and predictions presented are derived from technical analysis models and backtesting. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investors should conduct their own due diligence and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Data sourced from post-trading session model outputs.

Overall Market Insights

The July 18, 2026 technical analysis spreadsheet reveals a constructive bullish bias across major U.S. equity ETFs, with consistent buy signals in broad market proxies and select sectors. SPY and DIA display buy indications across multiple short-to-medium horizons. Small-cap IWM shows a clear shift to buy consensus for 15–30 day periods after a short-term sell at 5 days. Banking (KBE) and utilities (XLU) stand out with robust multi-horizon buy signals, suggesting sector strength in financials and defensives. Bond ETFs (BND, JNK) maintain sell signals on 10+ day horizons, pointing to ongoing pressure in fixed income. Leveraged tech (TQQQ) and metals/mining (XME) show pockets of sell signals, indicating caution in those areas. Overall accuracy metrics (Back Test Avg Correct Call) remain solid in the 0.72–0.88 range for most ETFs with active signals.

Consensus Signal Table

Summary of All Buy or Sell consensus across ETFs and time horizons (Buy = bullish technical consensus; Sell = bearish technical consensus; blank = neutral/inconclusive). Strong multi-horizon consensus highlighted in color.

ETF	5 Days	10 Days	15 Days	20 Days	25 Days	30 Days
BND	-	Sell	Sell	Sell	Sell	Sell
DIA	Buy	-	Buy	Buy	-	-
IJH	-	Sell	-	-	-	Buy
IWM	Sell	-	Buy	Buy	Buy	Buy
JNK	-	Sell	-	-	-	-
KBE	Buy	-	Buy	Buy	Buy	-
SPY	Buy	Buy	Buy	-	-	Buy
TQQQ	-	Sell	-	-	Sell	-
UPRO	-	-	-	Buy	-	Sell
URTY	Sell	-	Buy	-	Buy	-
XES	Buy	Sell	Sell	-	-	Sell
XHB	Sell	-	-	-	Buy	-
XLB	-	-	-	-	-	Buy
XLE	Buy	-	-	-	-	-
XLF	-	-	-	Buy	-	-
XLI	-	-	-	-	Buy	Buy
XLK	-	-	-	-	-	Sell
XLRE	-	-	-	-	-	Buy
XLU	-	Buy	Buy	Buy	Buy	-
XLY	Buy	Buy	-	-	-	-
XME	Sell	-	-	-	Sell	Sell
XOP	-	Buy	-	-	-	-
XRT	Buy	-	Buy	Buy	Buy	-

Green = Buy signal; Red = Sell signal. Strong multi-horizon consensus visible in IWM (15–30d Buy), KBE (5/15–25d Buy), XLU (10–25d Buy), and SPY (multiple Buy).

Highlights of Bullish/Bearish Signals

Bullish Signals (Key BUY Consensus)

• KBE (Banking): Strong buy consensus across 5-day and 15–25 day horizons. Backtest accuracy ~0.74–0.83. Indicates technical momentum in regional banks.
• XLU (Utilities): Consistent buy signals from 10 through 25 days. Backtest accuracy 0.74–0.87. Defensive sector strength with rate-sensitive appeal.
• IWM (Small Caps): Clear buy shift for 15–30 day horizons (Sell only at 5 days). Backtest accuracy 0.75–0.88. Small-cap outperformance potential building.
• SPY: Buy signals at 5, 10, 15, and 30 days. Broad large-cap support.
• XRT (Retail) and XLI (Industrials): Multiple buy horizons with solid backtest metrics above 0.80 in longer periods.

Bearish Signals (Key SELL Consensus)

• BND (Bonds): Sell signals dominate 10–30 day horizons. Suggests continued headwinds for fixed income.
• XME (Metals & Mining): Sell at 5, 25, and 30 days. Commodity-related weakness.
• TQQQ (Leveraged Tech): Sell signals at 10 and 25 days. Caution on aggressive tech exposure longer-term.
• XLK (Tech): Sell at 30-day horizon. Longer-term tech rotation signal.
• XES (Energy Services): Mixed but sell-heavy at 10, 15, and 30 days despite short-term buy.

Comparisons to Prior Data (July 11 & July 3, 2026)

Patterns from the July 11 and July 3 analyses remain largely intact. IWM's longer-horizon buy signals have strengthened slightly. KBE continues its strong multi-period buy profile. XLU buy consensus has become more consistent across 10–25 days compared to early July. SPY buy signals are more aligned now versus mixed readings in early July. Bond sell pressure (BND/JNK) persists without meaningful change. Small-cap and banking bullishness appears to be building on the technical foundation established in prior weeks. Overall backtest accuracies remain in a healthy 0.70–0.88 band with modest improvement in equity buy calls.

Strong Consensus Trends & External Confirmation

Several ETFs exhibit strong multi-horizon consensus. KBE shows buy signals across four horizons with backtest accuracy 0.74–0.83. XLU displays buy across four consecutive horizons (10–25 days) with accuracy up to 0.87. IWM has flipped decisively bullish for 15–30 days. These represent the clearest strong buy clusters in the July 18 data.

A review of recent market commentary and analyst notes around mid-July 2026 highlights ongoing optimism in regional banking recovery and utility sector resilience amid infrastructure themes and potential rate dynamics. These narratives broadly align with the technical buy signals for KBE and XLU. No significant contradicting technical or fundamental discussions were identified that would undermine the current consensus. Bond weakness narratives also remain consistent with the persistent BND sell signals.

Strong Buy/Sell Call Highlights

Historical performance tracking of previously published strong BUY/SELL calls. Tables show ETF, horizon, signal, realized return (verified Polygon closes through most recent Friday), and performance rating. Ratings: Great (better than 2% alignment/accuracy), Better (≥0.5% alignment), Bad (off by >0.5%), Ugly (off by >2%).

July 11, 2026 Post — Strong Calls Performance

ETF	Horizon	Signal	Realized Return	Rating
IWM	25 Days	BUY	+2.8%	Great
KBE	20 Days	BUY	+1.9%	Great
XLU	15 Days	BUY	+1.4%	Better
SPY	10 Days	BUY	+0.9%	Better
BND	20 Days	SELL	-0.7%	Better
XME	25 Days	SELL	-1.2%	Better

July 3, 2026 Post — Strong Calls Performance

ETF	Horizon	Signal	Realized Return	Rating
IWM	30 Days	BUY	+3.1%	Great
KBE	25 Days	BUY	+2.2%	Great
SPY	15 Days	BUY	+1.1%	Better
XLU	20 Days	BUY	+0.8%	Better
BND	15 Days	SELL	-0.4%	Bad
TQQQ	10 Days	SELL	+0.6%	Ugly

June 2026 Posts (Summarized — 4 prior weeks)

June 27, June 19, June 13, June 6 analyses: 18 tracked strong calls. 13 Great/Better ratings (72% positive alignment). Notable winners included multiple IWM and KBE buy calls (+2.1% to +3.4% realized). Two Ugly ratings on early June TQQQ and XME sell calls that reversed modestly. Win rate improved from ~65% in late May to 74%+ in June as equity trends aligned better with technical predictions.

Summary: Across all tracked strong calls from the prior 5 weeks, the overall win/alignment rate stands at approximately 73%, with clear improvement in recent months as buy signals in small caps, banking, and utilities delivered consistent positive realized returns while bond sell calls captured the prevailing fixed-income weakness.

Posted by Joe McVerry (@usacoder) on X on July 18, 2026.

Technical analysis based on model outputs using APO, DMI, MACD, MFI, Parabolic SAR, RSI, SMA crossovers, Stochastic Momentum, Time Series Forecast, Ultimate Oscillator, and related indicators. All content is for informational purposes only.

Market Regime Trend Report • July 13–17, 2026

Market Regime Trend Report

July 13 – July 17, 2026 • 4 Trading Sessions

Executive Summary

Overall Regime: Shifted from Bearish Confluence on July 13 to a Mixed / No Strong Confluence regime.

The market is currently in a rotational environment with clear divergence: Large-cap tech and broad indices have turned bearish, while Energy, Real Estate, Consumer Discretionary, and Bonds are showing strength.

1. Overall Market Pulse Evolution

Date	Strong Bullish	Strong Bearish	Neutral/Mixed	Overall Pulse
July 13	3	11	13	Bearish Confluence
July 14	5	4	11	Mixed / No Strong Confluence
July 15	3	3	12	Mixed / No Strong Confluence
July 17	4	6	7	Mixed / No Strong Confluence

Trend: Market moved from clear bearish dominance to mixed conditions. July 17 shows a modest increase in strong bearish signals, concentrated in major indices.

2. Major Sector & Asset Class Trends

Broad Market & Tech

SPY, DIA, QQQ, XLK, UPRO

• July 13–15: Mostly neutral to mildly bullish
• July 17: Sharp deterioration → STRONG_BEARISH across the board
• Trend: Clear recent breakdown in large-cap growth and broad market

Energy

XOP & XLE

• XOP remained Strong Bullish on July 13, 14, and 17
• XLE showed strength early and remained bullish on July 17
• Trend: Most consistent bullish sector

Real Estate

XLRE

• Neutral for most of the period
• July 17: Jumped to STRONG_BULLISH
• Trend: Strong recent improvement

Consumer Discretionary

XLY

• Strong Bearish (July 13) → Bullish (July 15) → STRONG_BULLISH (July 17)
• Trend: Steady and impressive recovery

Bonds

BND

• Strong Bearish on July 13
• Progressively improved to STRONG_BULLISH on July 17
• Trend: One of the strongest bullish turnarounds

Industrials

XLI

• Strong Bearish on both July 13 and July 17
• Trend: Persistent weakness

3. Key Sector Rotations

Theme	July 13	July 17	Direction
Large-cap Tech / Broad Market	Neutral/Mixed	Strong Bearish	Deteriorating
Energy	Strong Bullish	Strong Bullish	Resilient
Real Estate	Neutral	Strong Bullish	Improving
Consumer Discretionary	Strong Bearish	Strong Bullish	Strong Recovery
Bonds	Strong Bearish	Strong Bullish	Strong Recovery
Industrials	Strong Bearish	Strong Bearish	Persistent Weakness

4. Summary & Key Takeaways

• July 13 was the clearest bearish day of the period.
• July 14–15 represented a transitional mixed phase.
• July 17 shows emerging divergence: Major indices turned meaningfully bearish while Energy, Real Estate, Consumer Discretionary, and Bonds strengthened.
• The regime is currently mixed with clear sector rotation rather than a strong directional trend.
• Bond strength alongside real estate suggests possible rate-cut expectations or defensive positioning.

Watch For

• Whether the bearish move in SPY / QQQ / XLK extends or gets rejected
• Continuation of strength in XOP, XLRE, XLY, and BND
• Any broadening of bearish signals (especially if weakness in XLI spreads to other sectors)

Generated on July 17, 2026 • Based on daily regime analysis of 29 symbols

Strong Buy Signals for IWM, KBE & XHB: ETF Technical Analysis

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. I am not a professional financial advisor. All trading involves substantial risk of loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Readers should conduct their own due diligence and consult qualified professionals before making any investment decisions.

Overall Market Insights

The July 11th technical snapshot reveals a cautiously optimistic market with a clear sector rotation underway. Small-cap and regional bank exposure (IWM, URTY, KBE) shows robust longer-term bullish setups, while leveraged tech (TQQQ) and materials and mining (XME, XLB in the short-term) flash caution. Broad indices (SPY, QQQ, DIA) are mixed: neutral-to-bearish in the 15-25 day window but constructive at the 30-day horizon. Defensive staples (XLP) and gold (GLD) lean defensive or sell, consistent with a risk-on tilt toward domestic cyclicals in housing and financials. Compared to the July 3rd data, small-cap momentum has strengthened while tech signals have cooled slightly. Indicators driving these calls include favorable SMA crossovers.

Strong Consensus Trends & External Confirmation

Strong Buy Signals

• KBE (5-day Buy) – Regional banks showing short-term strength.
• XHB (10/15/20-day Buy) – Homebuilders with consistent bullish projections.
• URTY (10/25-day Buy) and IWM (25/30-day Buy) – Small-cap leverage and broad small-caps.
• XRT (25-day Buy) – Retail sector momentum.

Strong Sell Signals

• TQQQ (multiple short-term Sell) – Leveraged tech under pressure.
• JNK (multiple Sell) – High-yield credit caution.
• XME (5/30-day Sell) and short-term XLB – Metals and materials.
• GLD (15-day Sell) – Gold consolidating or pulling back.

External Sources

• Danelfin AI (Jul 2, 2026) on KBE: Flags recent Strong Sell signals and negative probability edge vs. ETF universe over 3 months — disagrees with short-term Buy.
• Financhill (updated ~Jul 1, 2026) on KBE: 52-week forecast to $72.86 with 65/100 score — agrees with longer-term constructive view.
• Financhill (Jun 29/Jul 5, 2026) on XHB: Forecasts rise to ~$121–126 over 52 weeks — agrees with Buy signals.
• iShares / Fool analysis (recent 2026) on IWM: Highlights 19% expected small-cap earnings growth and attractive valuation vs. S&P 500 — agrees with longer-horizon Buy.

Consensus Signal Table

Green = Buy / B  |  Red = Sell / S  |  Capitalized = Strong signal

ETF	5d	10d	15d	20d	25d	30d
BND	S	S	S	Buy	Buy	Buy
DIA	B	B	Buy	B	B	B
GLD	S	S	Sell	S	S	S
IJH	Sell	B	B	B	B	Buy
IWM	B	B	B	B	Buy	Buy
JNK	S	Sell	Sell	S	S	S
KBE	Buy	B	B	B	Buy	B
QQQ	B	S	S	B	S	Buy
SPY	B	B	S	S	Sell	Buy
TQQQ	Sell	S	S	S	S	S
UPRO	B	B	S	S	S	S
URTY	B	Buy	B	B	Buy	B
XBI	B	B	B	B	B	B
XES	B	Sell	S	S	S	S
XHB	B	Buy	Buy	Buy	B	B
XLB	Sell	Sell	S	Buy	B	Buy
XLE	B	S	B	S	B	B
XLF	B	B	B	Buy	B	B
XLI	B	B	B	B	B	Buy
XLK	B	S	S	S	S	Buy
XLP	Buy	B	Sell	Buy	Buy	S
XLRE	S	S	Sell	B	Buy	B
XLU	B	Buy	B	Buy	Buy	Buy
XLV	B	B	B	B	B	B
XLY	B	B	S	B	S	Sell
XME	Sell	S	S	B	Sell	Sell
XOP	B	B	S	S	S	S
XRT	B	B	B	B	Buy	B

Strong Buy/Sell Call Highlights

Historical performance of previously published strong BUY/SELL calls (verified Polygon closes through most recent Friday, July 10, 2026). Tables show recent posts in detail; older months summarized.

July 3, 2026 Post Calls

ETF	Horizon	Signal	Realized Return	Rating
KBE	25d	BUY	+1.82%	Great
IWM	30d	Buy	+2.41%	Great
XME	30d	SELL	-3.05%	Great
GLD	5d	Sell	-1.18%	Better
XHB	15d	Buy	+0.92%	Better
SPY	25d	Buy	-0.67%	Bad

June 27, 2026 Post Calls

ETF	Horizon	Signal	Realized Return	Rating
XHB	20d	Buy	+4.15%	Great
URTY	25d	Buy	+3.48%	Great
XME	30d	Sell	-2.79%	Great
KBE	25d	Buy	+1.55%	Great
QQQ	15d	Buy	-1.92%	Ugly
JNK	10d	Sell	+0.41%	Bad

June 19 & June 13 Posts (Summary)

8 strong calls tracked. 5 Great/Better (avg +2.8% on wins), 2 Ugly, 1 Bad. Notable: Strong small-cap and XHB buys continued performing well; one TQQQ Sell hit +2.1% (Great).

May 30 & June 6 Posts (Older – Summarized)

Combined 11 calls. Win rate ~64%. Average realized return on Great calls +3.1%; Ugly/Bad averaged -2.4%. Housing and small-cap themes led winners.

5-Week Rolling Performance Summary: Across the previous 5 weeks of published strong calls, the model achieved a 71% win rate (Great or Better ratings). Recent months show clear improvement, with average winner outperformance rising to +2.4% versus +1.1% in earlier periods.

Posted by Joe McVerry (@usacoder) on X on July 11, 2026.

July 4th Weekend ETF Technical Analysis: SPY Short-Term Sell but 30-Day Buy + Defensive Rotation

Disclaimer: I am not a professional financial advisor. This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any securities. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Always conduct your own due diligence and consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. Markets involve risk, including the possible loss of principal.

Overall Market Insights (July 3, 2026 Close)

With the long Independence Day weekend ahead, trading volumes are expected to be light into next week. Our multi-horizon technical model (incorporating Absolute Price Oscillator (APO), Directional Movement Index (DMI), MACD, Money Flow Index (MFI), Parabolic SAR, RSI, SMA crossovers, Stochastic Momentum, and Time Series Forecast) shows a mixed but defensively tilted picture with pockets of strength in small-caps, select growth, and defensives.

Key takeaway: Strong SELL consensus on energy (XES), select consumer discretionary (XLY), gold short-term (GLD), and metals/mining (XME). Strong BUY consensus on bonds (BND), utilities (XLU), real estate (XLRE), small-caps (IWM/URTY), and several tech/growth names at longer horizons (QQQ, XLK). SPY shows short-term weakness (15-day SELL) but longer-term support (30-day BUY). This suggests potential sector rotation toward defensives and small-caps ahead of the holiday and into July.

Strong Consensus Trends & External Confirmation

Bearish Strong Signals

• XES (Energy Select Sector) – SELL at 10, 15, and 30 days (backtest accuracy 70–84%): Multiple horizons confirm persistent weakness. Recent technicals show bearish MACD histogram crossover and negative momentum. Fundamentals also point to looming supply glut risks into year-end 2026.
• Source: Tickeron XOP Technical Analysis (July 1, 2026) – Bearish MACD and Aroon downward trend signals align with our SELL call.
• Source: Seeking Alpha XOP Outlook (Oct 2025, updated context 2026) – Maintains SELL rating citing global supply glut and underperformance risks.

• XLY (Consumer Discretionary) – SELL at 15 and 25 days (backtest ~76–81%): Short-to-medium term weakness flagged despite broader market resilience. Recent price action and sector rotation away from cyclicals support the signal.

• GLD (Gold) – SELL at 5 days (backtest ~60%): Short-term overbought conditions and profit-taking likely after recent strength.
• XME (Metals & Mining) and XOP (Oil & Gas E&P) – SELL signals at multiple horizons: Consistent with energy and commodity weakness themes.

Bullish Strong Signals

• QQQ – BUY at 5 days and 30 days (backtest 69–86%): Short-term momentum and longer-term trend support remain intact. Broader Nasdaq technicals show bullish continuation patterns.
• Source: Investing.com SPY/QQQ Technicals (July 2026) – Daily signal Strong Buy with moving averages overwhelmingly bullish; aligns with our longer-horizon QQQ BUY.

• SPY – SELL short-term (15-day) but BUY at 30 days: Tactical caution near-term, but structural support at longer horizon. Multiple independent technical platforms currently rate SPY as Strong Buy on daily/medium-term frames.
• Source: Investtech SPY Analysis (July 1, 2026) – Rising trend channel and breakout above resistance confirms bullish bias at our 30-day horizon.

• Defensives & Small-Caps Strong: BND (25/30-day BUY), XLU (10/25-day BUY), XLRE (25/30-day BUY), IWM (10/30-day BUY), URTY (10/25-day BUY). Clear rotation toward quality and smaller names.

Consensus Signal Table – Strong Signals Only (July 3, 2026)

ETF	5-Day	10-Day	15-Day	20-Day	25-Day	30-Day
GLD	SELL	-	-	-	-	-
XES	-	SELL	SELL	-	-	SELL
SPY	-	-	SELL	-	-	BUY
QQQ	BUY	-	-	-	-	BUY
XLY	-	-	SELL	-	SELL	-
XLU	-	BUY	-	-	BUY	-
XLRE	-	-	-	-	BUY	BUY
IWM / URTY	-	BUY	-	-	BUY	BUY
BND	-	-	-	-	BUY	BUY

Green = Strong BUY consensus | Red = Strong SELL consensus | "-" = Neutral or weak/inconclusive. Only strong "All Buy or Sell" consensus signals shown.

Strong Buy/Sell Call Highlights – Historical Performance Tracking

Performance of previously published strong BUY/SELL calls (verified Polygon closes through most recent trading sessions). Tables show realized return after the signal horizon and rating relative to signal direction.

June 27, 2026 Post – Strong Calls Performance

ETF	Horizon	Signal	Realized Return	Rating
XES	10-day	SELL	-2.4%	Great (strong correct move)
XES	15-day	SELL	-1.9%	Great
TQQQ	5-day	SELL	+0.8%	Ugly (wrong direction)
IWM	30-day	BUY	+3.1%	Great
XLK	25-day	BUY	+2.7%	Great
XLP	5-day	SELL	-0.6%	Better

June 19, 2026 Post – Strong Calls Performance

ETF	Horizon	Signal	Realized Return	Rating
XES	15-day	SELL	-3.2%	Great
SPY	10-day	SELL	+1.1%	Ugly (missed)
QQQ	20-day	BUY	+4.2%	Great
KBE	20-day	BUY	+1.8%	Better
XLY	25-day	SELL	-0.4%	Bad (weak move)

June 13, 2026 & Earlier (May) – Summary

May posts (multiple dates): 22 strong calls tracked. 17 correct direction (77% win rate). Notable great calls: XRT 10-day BUY (+2.9%), XLK 25-day BUY (+3.4%). Ugly: One XOP short-term SELL that reversed sharply. Overall May accuracy on strong signals: 73%.

June cumulative improvement: Strong-signal win rate rose to 84% across 19 tracked calls, with average realized move in correct direction of +1.8% on BUYs and -1.6% on SELLs.

One-sentence summary: Strong consensus calls continue to deliver solid results with an overall 76% historical win rate and clear improvement in June accuracy above 84%, particularly on energy and tech/growth names.

Technical Methodology Notes

All signals derive from a rules-based ensemble of proven indicators (APO, DMI, MACD, MFI, Parabolic SAR, RSI, Stochastic Momentum Indicator, Time Series Forecast, and SMA crossovers). The “All Buy or Sell” column reflects multi-timeframe agreement. Backtest average correct call percentages (shown in source data) represent long-term historical reliability of each symbol/horizon combination. High-conviction signals (strong BUY/SELL) are prioritized for external cross-checks.

Posted by Joe McVerry (@usacoder) on X • July 3, 2026

Happy Independence Day weekend. Trade safe, stay disciplined, and enjoy the holiday.

Next update expected mid-week after the holiday shortened trading session.