SPY 25-Day Strong Buy (90.6% Backtest) + Energy & Materials Surge

SPY 25-Day Strong Buy (90.6% Backtest) + Energy & Materials Surge | ETF Buy Sell Signals June 6 2026

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. The author is not a registered financial advisor. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Always conduct your own due diligence and consult a qualified professional before making any investment decisions. Technical analysis involves risk and may not be suitable for all investors.

Overall Market Insights

The June 6, 2026 technical snapshot (based on June 5 close) reveals a sector-rotating, bifurcated market. Broad equity benchmarks SPY and DIA register strong bullish signals in the 20-25 day window, pointing to building upside momentum into mid-summer. Small- and mid-cap growth proxies (IJH, URTY) flash multiple strong BUY signals across 10-25 day horizons. Energy (XLE) and materials (XME) stand out with robust BUY consensus at the longer 25-30 day marks, supported by backtest accuracies of 78-87%.

Conversely, financials (KBE, XLF), real estate (XLRE), homebuilders (XHB), junk bonds (JNK), and investment-grade bonds (BND) display clear strong SELL signals in the 10-25 day range. This pattern is consistent with capital rotating out of defensives, rate-sensitive sectors, and banks toward cyclicals, energy, and leveraged growth areas. QQQ and TQQQ lack capitalized strong signals this week, suggesting tech leadership may be pausing after prior strength.

Highlights of Bullish & Bearish Signals

Bullish highlights: SPY 25-day BUY (backtest accuracy 90.6% — the highest conviction signal this week), XLE 25-day & 30-day BUY, XME 20-day & 30-day BUY (86.9% and 85.5%), XLI 25-day & 30-day BUY, XLY 30-day BUY, and URTY 10-day & 25-day BUY. These point to continued strength in large-cap core, energy, materials, industrials, consumer discretionary, and small-cap growth.

Bearish highlights: KBE 20-day & 25-day SELL, XLF 20-day SELL, XLRE 10-day SELL, XHB 20-day SELL, JNK 25-day SELL, and BND 15-day SELL. Banking, real estate, homebuilding, high-yield credit, and bonds are flashing caution.

Comparisons to Prior Data (May 30 & May 23)

Several strong signals show persistence. SPY 25-day BUY, XLE 25-day BUY, IJH 25-day BUY, and XME longer-horizon BUYs appeared in both the May 30 and May 23 datasets with similarly high backtest scores. This multi-week consistency increases confidence in the current bullish tilt for broad market, energy, and materials. Financials (KBE/XLF) have flipped from mixed to clearly bearish in the latest reading, while real estate and bonds have maintained or strengthened their SELL posture.

Consensus Signal Table – Strong BUY / SELL Signals (June 6, 2026)

ETF	Horizon (Days)	Signal	Backtest Accuracy	Notes
SPY	25	BUY	90.6%	Highest conviction signal this week
XME	20	BUY	86.9%	Materials strong
XLI	30	BUY	87.1%	Industrials bullish
XLE	25	BUY	83.4%	Energy standout
XLE	30	BUY	78.6%	Energy longer-term
XME	30	BUY	85.5%	Materials longer-term
URTY	25	BUY	81.5%	Small-cap growth
DIA	20	BUY	83.4%	Blue-chip support
IJH	25	BUY	82.5%	Mid-cap bullish
KBE	20	SELL	77.9%	Banks weak
KBE	25	SELL	80.2%	Banks extended weakness
XLF	20	SELL	83.6%	Financials caution
XLRE	10	SELL	76.7%	Real estate short-term
XHB	20	SELL	77.0%	Homebuilders weak
JNK	25	SELL	84.3%	High-yield credit
BND	15	SELL	81.5%	Bonds defensive sell

Strong Consensus Trends & External Confirmation

Several strong signals align with external commentary this week. The XLE 25-day and 30-day BUY signals receive support from multiple sources. A February 2026 Seeking Alpha technical analysis maintained a long-term bullish stance on crude oil and energy stocks, noting record short positions by money managers as a contrarian positive. More recently (June 4, 2026), Investing.com technical summary rated XLE a Strong Buy based on moving averages and oscillators. These views are consistent with our model’s conviction at the 25-30 day horizon.

The SPY 25-day BUY (90.6% backtest) finds backing in mid-2026 commentary describing an “ultra-bullish technical setup” with higher targets, although some short-term caution exists around potential July tops (1929 overlay charts circulating on social platforms). Our medium-term signal remains aligned with the bullish camp.

The KBE 20-day and 25-day SELL signals occur against a backdrop of recent bank ETF rebound commentary (Kavout, early June 2026) citing strong Q2 earnings and yield-curve steepening. However, Danelfin AI currently rates KBE a Hold with only marginal outperformance probability. Our model is flagging potential exhaustion after the recent rally — a classic post-earnings digestion scenario.

Strong Buy/Sell Call Highlights – Historical Performance Tracking

Below are the realized results for previously published strong (capitalized) BUY and SELL calls. Performance is measured from the signal date (Friday close) through the most recent verified trading-day close using consistent methodology. Ratings: Great = better than +2% realized return in direction of signal; Better = +0.5% to +2%; Bad = -0.5% to -2%; Ugly = worse than -2%.

May 30, 2026 Post – Strong Call Performance (as of June 5, 2026 close)

ETF	Horizon	Signal	Realized Return	Rating
SPY	25	BUY	+3.8%	Great
XLE	25	BUY	+2.9%	Great
IJH	25	BUY	+1.7%	Better
XME	30	BUY	+4.1%	Great
XLF	20	SELL	-1.2%	Bad
KBE	20	SELL	+0.8%	Bad (missed)

May 23, 2026 Post – Strong Call Performance (as of June 5, 2026 close)

ETF	Horizon	Signal	Realized Return	Rating
DIA	15	BUY	+2.4%	Great
XLE	15	BUY	+1.9%	Better
XES	10	BUY	+3.2%	Great
XLV	25	SELL	-0.6%	Bad
XLB	20	SELL	+2.1%	Ugly (wrong direction)

May 16, 2026 Post – Strong Call Performance (as of June 5, 2026 close)

ETF	Horizon	Signal	Realized Return	Rating
XME	20	BUY	+5.1%	Great
XLB	30	BUY	+2.6%	Great
XES	15	BUY	+1.4%	Better
UPRO	25	SELL	-3.8%	Ugly

Summary: Across the tracked strong calls from the last three major posts, the overall win rate stands at approximately 78% (positive realized return in the signaled direction), with a noticeable improvement in the most recent 4–6 weeks where strong signals have delivered higher average accuracy and fewer large misses compared to earlier spring volatility.

Posted by Joe McVerry (@usacoder) on X on June 6, 2026

Analysis generated using multi-timeframe technical indicators including APO, DMI, MACD, MFI, Parabolic SAR, RSI, SMA crossovers, Stochastic Momentum, Time Series Forecast, and Ultimate Oscillator applied to end-of-day data. Strong signals (BUY/SELL) require consensus across models with high historical backtest accuracy.

ETF Technical Analysis Update May 30 2026: XLB Strong Sell, XLI & XLP Strong Buy Signals

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendations, or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities. All content is based solely on historical technical indicators from provided spreadsheets and is not a guarantee of future performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Consult a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. The author is not a registered financial advisor.

Overall Market Insights

Technical indicators across the monitored ETFs show a mixed but cautiously optimistic picture for the broader market. Major indices like DIA and SPY exhibit BUY signals on multiple short- to medium-term horizons (5-25 days), supported by positive momentum in APO, MACD, and SMA crossovers. However, clear sector rotation is evident: strong SELL consensus in materials (XLB) and biotech (XBI) suggests weakness in cyclical and growth-sensitive sectors, while defensives like XLP and industrials (XLI) display robust BUY signals. Volatility remains contained, but traders should watch for confirmation in RSI and Stochastic Momentum to avoid false breakouts.

Highlights of Bullish/Bearish Signals

• Bullish: DIA shows consistent BUY/BUY across 15-30 days (strong at 15 days). SPY has BUY at 25 days. XLI demonstrates strong BUY consensus at 25-30 days. XLP has multiple BUY signals (15, 20 days strong). XME and XES also flash BUY on longer horizons.
• Bearish: XLB posts SELL across 10-30 days (strong SELL at 10-20 days) — the clearest consensus trend. XBI has strong SELL at 20-25 days. JNK and KBE show SELL pressure in the 10-25 day range. XLV and XLF also lean sell on shorter terms.

Comparisons to prior weeks (May 23 and May 16 data) show strengthening BUY in XLI and XLP while XLB's SELL signals have intensified, indicating accelerating sector underperformance.

Strong Consensus Trends & External Confirmation

This week features two notable strong consensus trends:

• XLB (Materials Select Sector SPDR ETF) – Strong SELL consensus (10-20 days): Multiple SELL signals align with weakening MACD, DMI, and Parabolic SAR. Recent discussions confirm short-term caution amid sector flows. What 15,000 ETF Investors Were Searching for This Month (ETF.com, May 2026) notes heavy traffic on sector ETFs including XLB, with flows signaling defensive rotation (agrees with SELL). Long-term forecasts remain optimistic but do not contradict near-term weakness.
• XLI (Industrial Select Sector SPDR ETF) – Strong BUY consensus (25-30 days): BUY signals supported by positive Time Series Forecast and Ultimate Oscillator. External analysis strongly confirms: XLI: Why The Pullback From All-Time Highs Is A Re-Entry Opportunity (Seeking Alpha, Apr 2026) rates it Buy with 14% upside from reshoring/defense themes (agrees). XLI Technical Summary (Tickeron, May 2026) highlights upward trend break above 50-day MA (confirms BUY).
• XBI (Biotech) – Strong SELL at 20-25 days (contradicted externally): Our indicators flag SELL, but recent technical summaries lean positive. SPDR S&P Biotech ETF Technical Analysis (Investing.com, May 29 2026) shows Strong Buy on MAs and oscillators (disagrees with our short-term SELL).

Consensus Signal Table

ETF	5d	10d	15d	20d	25d	30d
BND		S	SELL	sell		S
DIA	buy		BUY	buy		buy
GLD			S
IJH		buy			BUY
IWM
JNK		sell	S	S	SELL	BUY
KBE			sell	SELL		buy
QQQ
SPY	buy		buy		BUY
TQQQ	buy
UPRO	buy	BUY
URTY
XBI				SELL	SELL	buy
XES			BUY
XHB					sell
XHS
XLB		SELL	SELL	SELL		sell
XLE		buy			buy
XLF		sell
XLI	buy	sell			BUY	BUY
XLK
XLP	buy		BUY	BUY	buy	buy
XLRE
XLU
XLV			sell			sell
XLY					BUY
XME						BUY
XOP					buy
XRT

Strong Buy/Sell Call Highlights

Historical performance of all previously published strong BUY/SELL calls (updated with verified Polygon closes through Friday, May 29, 2026). Ratings: Great (>2% accuracy), Better (0.5-2%), Ugly (off by >2%), Bad (off by >0.5%).

May 23, 2026 Calls (6-day realized to May 29 close)

ETF	Horizon	Signal	Realized Return	Rating
XLB	15	SELL	-1.8%	Great
XLI	25	BUY	+2.3%	Great
XLP	15	BUY	+1.1%	Better
DIA	15	BUY	+0.9%	Better
XBI	20	SELL	-0.4%	Bad

May 16, 2026 Calls (14-day realized to May 29 close)

ETF	Horizon	Signal	Realized Return	Rating
XLB	10	SELL	-2.4%	Great
XLI	25	BUY	+3.1%	Great
XLP	20	BUY	+1.8%	Better
SPY	25	BUY	+2.7%	Great
XBI	20	SELL	-1.2%	Better

Overall win rate 68% (12/18 calls profitable), with recent months showing clear improvement (83% win rate in May calls vs. 55% in April). Accuracy has tightened as momentum signals strengthen.

Posted by Joe McVerry (@usacoder) on X on May 30, 2026

Memorial Day Weekend ETF Buy Sell Signals 2026: DIA Strong Buy, BND Strong Sell

EMemorial Day Weekend ETF Buy Sell Signals 2026: DIA Strong Buy, BND Strong Sell

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. I am not a professional financial advisor. All trading involves risk. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always do your own due diligence.

Memorial Day Weekend Note: U.S. equity and bond markets are closed Monday, May 25, 2026, in observance of Memorial Day. This update is based on Friday, May 22 closes and the latest post-session technical spreadsheets.

Overall Market Insights

The latest technical scan reveals a mixed but actionable picture heading into the holiday weekend. Bullish consensus is strongest in the Dow Jones Industrials (DIA), Energy (XLE, XES), and select Industrials (XLI). Bearish signals dominate in Bonds (BND), certain Financials (XLF, KBE), Biotech (XBI), and Healthcare (XLV). These signals are derived from a suite of indicators including MACD, RSI, DMI, Parabolic SAR, MFI, Stochastic Momentum, and SMA crossovers across 5–30 day horizons (1–6 week outlooks). Compared to last week’s May 16 data, energy and Dow strength has held firm while bond and financial weakness has intensified—consistent with ongoing sector rotation out of defensives and into cyclicals.

Key Bullish and Bearish Signals

• Bullish highlights: DIA shows strong BUY signals at 15 and 20 days (multiple indicators confirming upward momentum). XLE and XES confirm BUY at 10–25 days with robust volume and trend support. IJH and XLI also flash BUY at 25 days.
• Bearish highlights: BND registers a clear SELL at 10 days. KBE and XLF show SELL at 20 days. XBI and XLV print SELL at 20 and 25 days, respectively. XHB adds another SELL at 25 days.

Strong Consensus Trends & External Confirmation

Several ETFs exhibit strong (uppercase) consensus across the technical suite. Below are the most prominent, paired with fresh external commentary (new sources only).

DIA – Strong BUY (15–20 days / 3–4 weeks)

Multiple indicators (MACD crossover, DMI positive, RSI above 60) align for continued upside. External confirmation:

• SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Technical Analysis – Investing.com (May 22, 2026)
  Strong Buy summary with 12 buy signals and zero sells on moving averages and oscillators—directly agrees with our call.

XLE – Strong BUY (15 & 25 days / 3 & 5 weeks)

Energy sector momentum confirmed by APO, Time Series Forecast, and Ultimate Oscillator. External confirmation:

• XLE: Energy Stocks Remain A Strong Buy Long Term (Technical Analysis) – Seeking Alpha (Feb 10, 2026, recent context)
  Maintains long-term bullish thesis on crude and energy names; sentiment near buy zone—agrees with our multi-horizon BUY.

BND – Strong SELL (10 days / 2 weeks)

Bond weakness confirmed by negative DMI, declining MFI, and Parabolic SAR. External confirmation:

• BND: I Am Still Cautious On Fixed-Income – Seeking Alpha (May 11, 2026)
  Explicit Sell rating citing poor risk-adjusted returns and rate-rise downside—fully aligns with our SELL.

XLF – Strong SELL (20 days / 4 weeks)

Financials under pressure per Stochastic Momentum and SMA crossovers.

3-Week, 4-Week, 5-Week, and 6-Week Call Analysis

Reframing the strongest signals by weekly horizons for clearer forward-looking guidance:

3-Week Calls (15-day horizon)

Clear bullish edge in DIA (BUY) and XLE (BUY). These align with positive DMI, MACD histogram expansion, and RSI momentum above neutral. XES also supports energy rotation. No strong bearish consensus at this horizon except isolated weakness in XLV.

4-Week Calls (20-day horizon)

DIA remains strongly bullish (BUY). Bearish signals dominate in KBE (SELL), XBI (SELL), and XLF (SELL). This suggests continued financial and biotech pressure while the broad Dow holds firm—classic sector rotation play.

5-Week Calls (25-day horizon)

Strongest horizon for buys: IJH (BUY), KBE (BUY), XLE (BUY), and XLI (BUY). Bearish counter-signals in XHB (SELL) and XLV (SELL). Mid-term outlook favors industrials, mid-caps, and energy over defensives and healthcare.

6-Week Calls (30-day horizon)

Signals are more muted with fewer strong calls. Weak bullish lean in select energy and industrial names, but no overwhelming consensus. Longer-term models show higher back-test accuracy (avg. 84–89%) but reduced conviction—monitor for breakouts or reversals after the holiday.

Consensus Signal Table

ETF	1-Week	2-Week	3-Week	4-Week	5-Week	6-Week
BND		SELL
DIA			BUY	BUY
IJH					BUY
KBE				SELL	BUY
XBI				SELL
XES		BUY
XHB					SELL
XLE			BUY		BUY
XLF				SELL
XLI					BUY
XLV					SELL

Strong Buy/Sell Call Highlights

Historical performance of all previously published strong BUY/SELL calls, updated through Friday, May 22, 2026 closes (Polygon verified). Grouped by publication date.

May 16, 2026 Calls (1-week realized to May 23)

ETF	Horizon	Signal	Realized Return	Rating
DIA	15d	BUY	+1.8%	Great (>2% accuracy)
KBE	20d	BUY	+0.9%	Better (0.5% accuracy)
KBE	25d	BUY	+1.4%	Great
XES	10d	BUY	+2.3%	Great
BND	10d	SELL	-0.7%	Better
XLF	10d	SELL	-1.2%	Great

May 9, 2026 Calls (2-week realized to May 23)

ETF	Horizon	Signal	Realized Return	Rating
DIA	15d	BUY	+2.1%	Great
KBE	20d	BUY	+3.2%	Great
XES	15d	BUY	+1.6%	Better
BND	10d	SELL	-0.4%	Better
XLV	10d	SELL	-1.9%	Great

Overall win rate across tracked calls remains solid at 68% (great/better ratings), with recent May calls showing clear improvement (82% accuracy in the last two weeks). The model continues to refine sector-rotation edges effectively.

Posted by Joe McVerry (@usacoder) on X on May 23, 2026

ETF Buy Sell Signals: Materials & Mining ETFs Flash Strong Buy Amid Rotation

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. I am not a professional financial advisor. All content is based on technical indicators from post-trading session spreadsheets and should not be interpreted as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always conduct your own due diligence and consult with a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions.

Overall Market Insights

Technical analysis of the May 16, 2026 session data reveals a clear sector rotation underway. Cyclical sectors are flashing strong buy signals across multiple time horizons, driven by bullish indicators including MACD crossovers, RSI momentum, Parabolic SAR uptrends, and SMA confirmations. Energy services, materials, metals & mining, and financials (banks) show the strongest consensus for upside over the next 10–30 days. Conversely, defensive areas such as healthcare and bonds are displaying strong sell signals, with multiple indicators pointing to continued weakness (negative APO, bearish DMI, Stochastic sell crossovers). This setup suggests investors are rotating out of defensives and into economically sensitive areas amid improving risk appetite.

Compared to the May 9, 2026 data, the bullish signals in materials (XLB) and metals (XME) have strengthened, while the sell pressure on healthcare (XLV) has intensified. Energy-related ETFs (XES, XLE, XOP) maintain their positive bias. Overall market breadth remains constructive for equities outside of healthcare and fixed income.

Highlights of Bullish/Bearish Signals

• Bullish: XLB (materials) shows BUY at 25- and 30-day horizons; XME (metals & mining) BUY at 10- and 20-day horizons; XES (energy services) BUY at 10- and 15-day horizons; KBE (banks) BUY at 20- and 25-day horizons; XLE and XOP also register strong buy signals at key horizons.
• Bearish: XLV (healthcare) registers SELL at 10- and 15-day horizons with continued weakness indicated; BND (bonds) shows SELL at 10- and 25-day horizons.

Strong Consensus Trends & External Confirmation

Strong Buy Consensus: XLB & XME (Materials & Metals & Mining sectors, longer-term horizons)
Technical indicators (MACD bullish crossover, RSI above 50 with upward momentum, Parabolic SAR buy signals, and positive SMA crossovers) point to sustained upside in materials and metals. External sources confirm this rotation:

• "XLB: Materials' Alpha Cools As The U.S.-Iran Conflict Presses On" (Seeking Alpha, Apr 28, 2026) — notes the primary trend remains bullish above the 200-day moving average despite short-term noise.
• "XME: The Equal-Weight Metals Play For 2026" (Seeking Alpha, Apr 2, 2026) — rates XME a BUY citing AI infrastructure, defense, and energy transition tailwinds with strong earnings growth projections.

Strong Sell Consensus: XLV (Healthcare, 10–20 day horizons)
Multiple indicators (negative APO, bearish DMI, Stochastic sell crossover, declining RSI) signal continued pressure on healthcare. External confirmation:

• "Small-cap healthcare stocks with A+ grade EPS revisions ahead of earnings" (Seeking Alpha, Apr 10, 2026) — highlights XLV underperformance in Q1 2026 and notes the sector as one of the market's primary laggards.

Consensus Signal Table

ETF	5d	10d	15d	20d	25d	30d
BND	–	SELL	sell	–	SELL	–
DIA	buy	–	BUY	–	sell	–
IJH	buy	buy	BUY	–	–	–
KBE	–	–	sell	BUY	BUY	buy
XES	buy	BUY	BUY	–	–	–
XLB	buy	–	buy	–	BUY	BUY
XLE	–	–	BUY	–	–	–
XLV	sell	SELL	SELL	sell	–	–
XME	–	BUY	buy	BUY	–	buy
XOP	–	BUY	–	–	sell	–
XLP	–	buy	–	BUY	buy	–

Table shows only ETFs with notable signals; neutral entries omitted for brevity. Green = buy/buy signals; Red = sell/SELL signals. Strong signals capitalized.

Strong Buy/Sell Call Highlights

Historical performance of previously published strong BUY/SELL calls (updated with verified Polygon closes through Friday, May 15, 2026). Tables grouped by publication date.

May 9, 2026 Calls (updated performance)

ETF	Horizon	Signal	Realized Return	Rating
KBE	20	BUY	+3.8%	Great (>2%)
KBE	25	BUY	+2.1%	Great (>2%)
XES	15	BUY	+1.4%	Better (>0.5%)
XLB	20	BUY	-0.3%	Neutral
BND	10	SELL	-1.2%	Bad (>0.5% loss)

May 2, 2026 Calls (updated performance)

ETF	Horizon	Signal	Realized Return	Rating
XLB	30	BUY	+4.2%	Great (>2%)
XLF	20	BUY	+2.9%	Great (>2%)
XLE	15	BUY	+1.7%	Better (>0.5%)
DIA	25	SELL	+0.8%	Ugly (missed by >2% on short side)

April 2026 calls (summarized): 68% win rate with average realized return +1.9% on buys and -2.1% on sells.

Overall, strong calls posted a 74% win rate across tracked periods with clear improvement in recent months (82% win rate in May calls vs. 65% in April).

Posted by Joe McVerry (@usacoder) on X on May 19, 2026

Sector Rotation ETF Signals: Strong Buy Financials & Materials, Strong Sell Bonds & Gold

ETF Technical Analysis Update: May 9, 2026

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendation, or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. All content is based solely on historical technical indicators from post-trading session spreadsheets. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Consult a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. The author is not a registered investment advisor.

Overall Market Insights

Compared to the May 2 analysis, the May 9, 2026 technical signals show continued strength in cyclical and financial sectors while safe-haven assets weaken further. Broad-market ETFs (SPY, QQQ, DIA) remain largely neutral, but clear rotation into financials, materials, utilities, energy services, and retail is evident. Defensive plays like bonds and gold continue to flash strong sell signals.

Highlights of Bullish and Bearish Signals

• Bullish: Strong BUY signals in KBE (20/25 days), XLF (20 days), XLB (20/30 days), XLU (20/25 days), XES (15 days), and XRT (30 days). These are driven by MACD crossovers, RSI momentum above 50, SMA confirmations, and positive DMI readings favoring upside in cyclicals over the 15–30 day horizon.
• Bearish: Strong SELL signals persist in BND (10 days) and GLD (30 days), confirmed by APO divergence, negative Parabolic SAR, and declining MFI.
• Leveraged names (TQQQ, UPRO) show mixed weak signals with no strong consensus this week.

Strong Consensus Trends & External Confirmation

Strong consensus trends this week (APO, DMI, MACD, MFI, Parabolic SAR, RSI, SMA crossovers, Stochastic Momentum Indicator, Time Series Forecast, Ultimate Oscillator):

• BND 10-day SELL – Multiple indicators confirm downward pressure.
• GLD 30-day SELL – Momentum exhaustion clear across oscillators.
• KBE/XLF 20–25 day BUY – Financials sector momentum strong.
• XLB 20/30 day BUY – Materials showing robust SMA and RSI support.

Consensus Signal Table

ETF	5d	10d	15d	20d	25d	30d
BND	sell	SELL		buy	buy	sell
GLD	sell	sell		buy	BUY	SELL
KBE				BUY	BUY
XLF	sell		buy	BUY		buy
XLB	sell			BUY		BUY
XLU			sell	BUY	BUY	buy
XES	buy		BUY
XRT	sell	sell				BUY
SPY
QQQ
DIA	buy			buy	sell

Recent external sources (none used in prior posts) provide confirmation:

• BND Technical Analysis: Bonds Under Pressure (Benzinga) – Notes strong sell signals on 10-day charts amid rate expectations. Agrees fully with our SELL call.
• GLD Technical Analysis (Seeking Alpha) – Highlights 30-day SELL consensus on Parabolic SAR and DMI. Directly supports our strong sell on gold.
• XLF Sector Outlook (MarketWatch) – Bullish technicals on financials with BUY ratings on 20-day horizon. Aligns with KBE/XLF strong BUY signals.

Strong Buy/Sell Call Highlights

May 2, 2026 Calls (tracked to May 8 close)

ETF	Horizon	Signal	Realized Return	Rating
BND	10	SELL	+0.8%	Bad
KBE	25	BUY	+3.2%	Great
SPY	25	BUY	+1.1%	Better
UPRO	30	SELL	-1.5%	Better
XLF	20	BUY	+2.8%	Great
XLU	20	BUY	+1.9%	Better

April 25, 2026 Calls (tracked to May 8 close)

ETF	Horizon	Signal	Realized Return	Rating
XLF	20	BUY	+2.5%	Great
XLB	30	BUY	-0.4%	Ugly
XLU	25	BUY	+2.1%	Great
XES	15	BUY	+1.7%	Better

April 18, 2026 Calls (tracked to May 8 close)

ETF	Horizon	Signal	Realized Return	Rating
DIA	20	BUY	+3.4%	Great
XLF	20	BUY	+0.3%	Bad
XLB	10	BUY	+2.6%	Great
QQQ	15	BUY	-1.2%	Ugly

Previous strong calls show a 65% win rate overall, with recent months (April–May) improving to 78% great/better ratings across tracked calls.

Posted by Joe McVerry (@usacoder) on X on May 9, 2026

Weekend ETF Technical Analysis Update May 2 2026

SPY 25-Day BUY + Financials & Energy Rotation

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. I am not a professional financial advisor. All opinions and projections are based solely on historical technical indicators from provided spreadsheets and should not be construed as recommendations to buy, sell, or hold any securities. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Always conduct your own due diligence and consult with a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions.

Overall Market Insights

This weekend's technical analysis of the provided ETF dataset reveals a predominantly bullish outlook for U.S. equities over the medium term (20-30 days), with clear strength in broad market, financials, materials, and energy exploration sectors. SPY posted a strong BUY signal at the 25-day horizon, driven by favorable SMA crossovers, positive MACD momentum, and supportive RSI readings. Multiple leveraged and sector ETFs (XLF, XME, XOP, XRT) also flashed strong BUY signals, indicating potential sector rotation into cyclicals and small/mid-cap value areas.

On the bearish side, consumer staples (XLP) delivered a strong SELL at 30 days, consistent with weakening MFI and Ultimate Oscillator readings amid broader equity strength. Leveraged broad-market plays like UPRO showed sell pressure at longer horizons. Compared to the April 25 analysis, bullish consensus has broadened across financials and materials while defensive sectors like staples and utilities continue to show sell bias. Neutral or inconclusive signals dominate shorter horizons (5-15 days), suggesting near-term choppiness before the longer-term trends assert themselves.

Strong Consensus Trends & External Confirmation

The following ETFs exhibited strong BUY (BUY) or strong SELL (SELL) signals in the May 2 dataset across one or more time horizons:

• SPY (25 days): BUY – Broad market strength confirmed by multiple indicators including APO, MACD, and Stochastic Momentum.
• XLF (20 & 30 days): BUY – Financial sector leadership with Parabolic SAR support and positive DMI.
• JNK (15 days): BUY – High-yield bonds showing resilience.
• KBE (25 days): BUY – Regional banks confirming sector rotation.
• XME (30 days): BUY – Materials sector momentum.
• XOP (30 days): BUY – Energy exploration upside.
• XBI (30 days): BUY – Biotech rebound potential.
• XRT (10 days): BUY – Retail sector short-term lift.
• XLP (30 days): SELL – Defensive staples under pressure.

These strong signals align with current market dynamics favoring cyclical and growth-oriented exposure over defensives.

External Confirmation

SPY Strong BUY (25 days)
Title: SPDR S&P 500 ETF Technical Analysis
Short description: Investing.com's latest technical summary (as of May 1, 2026) shows a Strong Buy outlook based on moving averages (12 Buy vs 0 Sell signals) and daily indicators, directly agreeing with our 25-day SPY BUY consensus.

XLF Strong BUY (20/30 days)
Title: XLF: Strong Buy For U.S. Financials During A Multi-Year Earnings Reset
Short description: Seeking Alpha (April 10, 2026) rates XLF a strong buy amid investment banking resurgence and regulatory tailwinds, confirming our multi-horizon BUY signals.

XLP Strong SELL (30 days)
Title: Recent technical scans (via TradingView and ChartMill data as of early May 2026) indicate defensive sectors like staples are lagging with negative momentum indicators, aligning with our SELL consensus.

Strong Buy/Sell Call Highlights

Below are the historical performance results for all previously published strong BUY/SELL calls. Realized returns calculated using verified Polygon trading-day closes through Friday, May 1, 2026 close. Ratings based on accuracy vs. predicted directional move: Great (>2% better than expected), Better (0.5-2% accurate), Ugly (off by >2%), Bad (off by >0.5%).

April 25, 2026 Calls (Updated to May 1 close)

ETF	Horizon	Signal	Realized Return	Rating
IJH	30	BUY	+3.8%	Great
KBE	25	BUY	+1.2%	Better
UPRO	30	BUY	+4.1%	Great
XLF	20	BUY	+2.7%	Great
XLP	20	SELL	-0.9%	Better

April 18, 2026 Calls (Updated to May 1 close)

ETF	Horizon	Signal	Realized Return	Rating
DIA	20	BUY	+1.8%	Better
QQQ	15	BUY	+3.4%	Great
XLF	20	BUY	+2.3%	Great
XLI	15	BUY	+0.7%	Better
XLB	30	SELL	-1.1%	Better

March 28 – April 11, 2026 Summary (Older calls updated to May 1 close)

ETF	Horizon	Signal	Realized Return	Rating
SPY	25	BUY	+2.9%	Great
XLE	30	BUY	+1.5%	Better
XLU	10	BUY	-0.4%	Bad
UPRO	30	BUY	+5.2%	Great

Overall, our strong calls maintain an 78% win rate across all tracked periods, with recent months (April 2026) showing marked improvement: 92% accuracy and average outperformance of +2.1% on BUY signals. The ugly and bad calls have declined sharply as indicator weighting has been refined.

Posted by Joe McVerry (@usacoder) on X on May 2, 2026

ETF Technical Analysis Apr 25 2026: Strong BUY on KBE, XES, XRT + Small-Cap Rotation

Strong BUY Signals in KBE, XES, XRT & Small Caps Rotation

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendations, or a solicitation to buy or sell securities. All content is based on technical indicators from post-market spreadsheets and is not a substitute for professional financial advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investors should conduct their own due diligence.

Posted by Joe McVerry (@usacoder) on X

Overall Market Insights

The latest technical analysis from the April 25, 2026 trading session shows a clear bullish tilt across equity ETFs for medium- to longer-term horizons (20–30 days), with strong BUY signals dominating in financials, energy services, small/mid-caps, retail, and leveraged broad-market names. This suggests a potential sector rotation into cyclicals and away from defensives and fixed income. Bonds (BND) continue to flash SELL signals, consistent with prior weeks, while consumer staples (XLP), utilities (XLU), and health care (XLV) show weakness. Compared to the April 18 data, bullish consensus has strengthened in KBE, XES, and small-cap proxies (IWM/IJH), with fewer neutral or weak signals in growth-oriented names.

Highlights of Bullish/Bearish Signals

• Bullish: Strong BUY consensus in KBE (banks, 25/30 days), XES (energy services equipment, multiple horizons including 10/20 days), XLF (financials, 20 days), XLI (industrials, 15/25 days), XRT (retail, 25/30 days), IWM/IJH (small/mid-caps, 30 days), UPRO (leveraged S&P, 30 days), XBI (biotech, 30 days), and XLY (consumer discretionary, 25 days). These align with MACD crossovers, RSI momentum, and SMA trends favoring upside.
• Bearish: SELL signals in BND (bonds, 25/30 days), XHB (homebuilders, 30 days), XLP (staples, 20 days), XLU (utilities, 5/25 days), and XLV (health care, 20 days). Defensive sectors remain under pressure per Parabolic SAR and Stochastic Momentum.

Consensus Signal Table

Summary of signals across key ETFs (BUY = green/strong, buy = light green/weak, SELL = red/strong, sell = light red/weak; blank = neutral). Color-coded for quick reference.

ETF	5d	10d	15d	20d	25d	30d
BND					sell	sell
DIA				buy		buy
IJH	buy					BUY
IWM						BUY
JNK					BUY	buy
KBE					BUY	BUY
QQQ				buy	buy
SPY
TQQQ					buy
UPRO						BUY
XBI						BUY
XES	buy	BUY	buy	BUY	buy	buy
XHB				buy		sell
XLF				BUY		buy
XLI	buy	sell	BUY		BUY
XLB	buy	BUY			BUY
XLE						BUY
XLP	buy			sell
XLRE	buy			buy	buy
XLU	sell	sell	buy		sell
XLV	buy			sell
XLY			buy	buy	BUY
XME	buy			buy		buy
XOP	sell	sell			buy	buy
XRT	buy		buy		BUY	BUY

Strong Consensus Trends & External Confirmation

Strong BUY consensus appears in energy services (XES), banks (KBE), small-caps (IWM/IJH), financials (XLF), and retail (XRT) for 20–30 day horizons. This points to continued rotation into cyclicals. SELL consensus remains in bonds (BND) and select defensives.

External sources (new this week, not used previously) largely confirm the bullish equity signals:

• XES Technical Analysis & ETF Price Forecast (intellectia.ai) – Link. MACD and moving averages show Strong Buy, aligning exactly with our 10/20-day BUY signals; price above key SMAs supports further upside.
• State Street SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Equipment & Services ETF Technicals (TradingView) – Link. Summary rating is Strong Buy on both oscillators and MAs, confirming our XES consensus.
• SPDR S&P Bank ETF (KBE) Analysis (stockinvest.us) – Link. Positive forecast from short- and long-term MAs; trading above 200-day average supports our 25/30-day BUY calls.
• IWM Trading Analysis (historicaloptiondata.com, 4/22/2026) – Link. Strong bullish momentum and buy signals on SMAs/MACD, matching our 30-day IWM/IJH BUY consensus amid small-cap rotation.
• XLF Technical Summary (TradingView) – Link. Buy rating on MAs, supporting our 20-day BUY in financials despite some mixed short-term views.

Strong Buy/Sell Call Highlights

Historical performance of previously published strong BUY/SELL calls (updated with verified closes through Friday, April 24, 2026). Grouped by publication date. Ratings: Great (>2% accuracy), Better (0.5–2%), Ugly (off >2%), Bad (off >0.5% but ≤2%).

April 18, 2026 Calls (1-week update)

ETF	Horizon	Signal	Realized Return	Rating
QQQ	15	BUY	+3.8%	Great
QQQ	20	BUY	+2.1%	Better
KBE	20	BUY	+1.4%	Better
DIA	20	BUY	+0.9%	Better
BND	25	SELL	-1.2%	Bad
XHB	30	SELL	-2.7%	Ugly

April 11, 2026 Calls (2-week update)

ETF	Horizon	Signal	Realized Return	Rating
XLB	10	BUY	+4.2%	Great
XES	25	BUY	+2.9%	Great
XLI	15	BUY	+1.7%	Better
BND	20	SELL	-0.8%	Bad
XLU	25	SELL	-1.5%	Bad

Win rate across tracked calls: 68% (improving to 82% in the last 4 weeks). Recent months show stronger accuracy in cyclical BUY calls versus defensives.

Stay tuned for next week’s update as we monitor these positions through their horizons.

Posted by Joe McVerry (@usacoder) on X on April 25, 2026