Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. I am not a professional financial advisor. Technical signals can fail. Do your own work before you risk capital.
Published Saturday, August 29, 2026
The tape after Friday’s close is not a one-way tape. The models still lean bullish from 15 to 30 trading days on the large-cap indexes and on several economically sensitive sectors. They do not lean bullish over the next five sessions. SPY, UPRO, URTY, XLY, and XRT all print short-horizon sells. That split is the story this week.
Overall Market Insights
SPY closed Friday at 769.35, about 1.3% under the August 13 high. The 5-day signal flipped from BUY last week to SELL this week. The 25- and 30-day signals remain buys. UPRO, the 3x S&P vehicle, repeats the same pattern: SELL at 5 days, BUY at 20/25/30. That is a near-term fade inside a still-constructive intermediate trend, not a regime change.
QQQ did not print a 5-day signal. It did print BUY at 15 and 25 days and a weaker buy at 30. XLK supports that with buys from 10 through 30 days. The Nasdaq complex is no longer the clean short-term long it was on August 21. It is an intermediate long if the 5-day index weakness stays contained.
Breadth underneath the indexes is uneven. DIA and IWM cluster buys from 15 days out. KBE only shows a 30-day BUY. Financials (XLF) are a 15-day buy and a 30-day BUY. Materials (XLB) and staples (XLP) are the cleanest multi-horizon long clusters on the sheet. Energy (XLE 5/15 BUY, XOP 5/10/20/25 buys) stays bid. Homebuilders and retail do not.
Highlights of Bullish and Bearish Signals
Bullish clusters: XLP (5, 15, 20 BUY; 25 buy), XLB (5, 15, 20 BUY; 30 buy), XOP (5 and 20 BUY; 10 and 25 buy), XLK (10 and 20 BUY; 25 and 30 buy), QQQ (15 and 25 BUY), DIA (15 and 20 BUY; 25 and 30 buy), UPRO 20–30 BUY, XBI 20–30 buys.
Bearish clusters: XRT SELL at 5 and 10 days. XHB SELL at 15 and 20 days. XLU SELL at 10 and 15 days. XLY SELL at 5 days against a 30-day BUY. SPY/UPRO/URTY SELL at 5 days. XLRE is split: BUY at 5 days, SELL at 15.
GLD, TQQQ, and XLV printed no All-column signal on any horizon. Neutral is the call. Do not invent one.
Comparison to the August 22 Sheet
Last week the 5-day column was still long SPY, UPRO, QQQ, XLK, XLF, and DIA. Those 5-day longs are gone. SPY 5 and UPRO 5 reversed from BUY to SELL. QQQ 5 and XLK 5 went blank. XHB 15 reversed from BUY to SELL. JNK 20 reversed from SELL to BUY. XLRE 5 reversed from SELL to BUY. XOP added 5- and 20-day BUYs. The sheet got more defensive on the very front of the curve and stayed constructive behind it.
Consensus Signal Table
Green = buy. Red = sell. Bold capitals = all three model families (A, P, and N) agreed. Lowercase = All-column signal without a full three-way lock. Em dash = no signal.
| ETF | 5d | 10d | 15d | 20d | 25d | 30d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BND | BUY | — | — | — | — | sell |
| DIA | — | — | BUY | BUY | buy | buy |
| GLD | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| IJH | — | — | — | — | — | BUY |
| IWM | — | — | BUY | buy | buy | — |
| JNK | BUY | — | — | BUY | — | — |
| KBE | — | — | — | — | — | BUY |
| QQQ | — | — | BUY | — | BUY | buy |
| SPY | SELL | — | — | — | BUY | buy |
| TQQQ | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| UPRO | SELL | — | — | BUY | BUY | BUY |
| URTY | SELL | — | — | — | BUY | — |
| XBI | — | — | — | buy | buy | buy |
| XES | — | — | BUY | — | BUY | — |
| XHB | — | — | SELL | SELL | — | — |
| XHS | — | — | — | BUY | — | — |
| XLB | BUY | — | BUY | BUY | — | buy |
| XLE | BUY | — | BUY | — | — | — |
| XLF | — | — | buy | — | — | BUY |
| XLI | — | — | BUY | — | — | — |
| XLK | — | BUY | — | BUY | buy | buy |
| XLP | BUY | — | BUY | BUY | buy | — |
| XLRE | BUY | — | SELL | — | — | — |
| XLU | — | SELL | SELL | — | — | — |
| XLV | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| XLY | SELL | — | — | — | — | BUY |
| XME | BUY | — | — | — | — | — |
| XOP | BUY | buy | — | BUY | buy | — |
| XRT | SELL | SELL | — | — | — | — |
Indicators behind the sheet include APO, DMI, MACD, MFI, Parabolic SAR, RSI, SMA crossovers, the Stochastic Momentum Indicator, Time Series Forecast, and the Ultimate Oscillator. The All column fires when the three internal families line up or when two fire and the third is blank. Back-test hit rates on the file run from about 0.61 on the 5-day BND print to above 0.80 on several 20- to 30-day rows. Those are historical hit rates on the model, not promises.
Strong Consensus Trends & External Confirmation
SPY 5-day SELL / 25-day BUY. StockInvest.us rates SPY a Hold after the August 28 close, with a sell signal from the August 13 pivot and a 3-month MACD sell against buy signals from the short- and long-term moving averages. That matches a short-horizon fade inside an intact uptrend. Reuters technical desk (Aug. 26) put the S&P 500 within 1.6% of the August 13 record close and flagged 7,550–7,620 as the support cluster that has to hold before another record attempt. The 5-day SELL does not fight that map. The 25-day BUY assumes that cluster holds.
XHB 15- and 20-day SELL. Benzinga (Aug. 26) — “Housing Demand Is Cracking. These ETFs Could Be Next to Feel the Heat” cited a 10.5% drop in July new-home sales, 30-year mortgage rates near 7%, and weaker purchase applications. That article agrees with the SELL. StockInvest.us (Aug. 27) still tags XHB a Hold, not a Sell, after a 1.4% down day. That is a partial contradiction: weak tape, not a completed breakdown.
XLU 10- and 15-day SELL. Dow Jones via Morningstar (Aug. 28) reported utilities down after Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish Jackson Hole remarks lifted the odds of a September hike and pushed yields up. Rate-sensitive utilities sold. The SELL on XLU lines up with that session.
XOP / XLE BUY cluster. Seeking Alpha (Aug. 27) — “There Are A Number Of Reasons I Continue To Like The Energy Sector” argued energy has led U.S. equities in 2026 on tighter supply and rising 2027 earnings estimates. That agrees with the BUY cluster. Morgan Stanley via TheStreet (Aug. 25) called crude the asymmetric near-term risk to stocks and raised its Brent path toward $90–$100. That supports the energy long and also explains why a 5-day SPY SELL can sit next to an energy BUY.
XLP BUY cluster. Motley Fool (Aug. 22) treated XLP as the straightforward defensive staples vehicle on cost and track record. Motley Fool (Aug. 28) noted staples still lag the S&P 500 in 2026 and used that lag as a value case, not a trend case. The models are buying the lag. That is agreement on direction, not on why.
XRT 5- and 10-day SELL. Discretionary (XLY) is also a 5-day SELL. The Census Bureau’s Aug. 18 e-commerce release showed Q2 online sales still growing, so the SELL is a technical read, not a collapse in the official retail data. Treat it as a 5- to 10-day tape call, not a verdict on the consumer.
Strong Buy/Sell Call Highlights
Every All-column buy or sell published in prior weekly files is scored with Polygon adjusted closes. Signal date is the last U.S. equity session before the CSV date. Horizon is trading days, not calendar days. Realized return is the price move in the direction of the call (positive = the call made money). Ratings: great = more than +2.0%; better = +0.5% to +2.0%; flat = between −0.5% and +0.5%; bad = −0.5% to −2.0%; ugly = worse than −2.0%.
Older files (summarized)
June 13 post (signal June 12): 57 matured. Great 13 / better 16 / flat 8 / bad 6 / ugly 14. Directed win rate (great+better vs bad+ugly): 59.2%.
July 3 post (signal July 2): 41 matured. Great 12 / better 9 / flat 3 / bad 8 / ugly 9. Directed win rate (great+better vs bad+ugly): 55.3%.
July 11 post (signal July 10): 43 matured. Great 11 / better 10 / flat 4 / bad 10 / ugly 8. Directed win rate (great+better vs bad+ugly): 53.8%.
July 18 post (signal July 17): 58 matured. Great 17 / better 12 / flat 7 / bad 9 / ugly 13. Directed win rate (great+better vs bad+ugly): 56.9%.
Post dated July 25, 2026 (signal close July 24)
Matured calls: 46. Great 15, better 7, flat 8, bad 6, ugly 10.
| ETF | Horizon | Signal | Realized Return | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DIA | 20 | BUY | +2.59% | great |
| DIA | 25 | BUY | +3.14% | great |
| KBE | 15 | BUY | +3.33% | great |
| SPY | 10 | BUY | +4.65% | great |
| SPY | 15 | BUY | +5.06% | great |
| SPY | 25 | BUY | +4.12% | great |
| UPRO | 20 | BUY | +9.99% | great |
| URTY | 25 | BUY | +3.12% | great |
| XBI | 5 | SELL | +2.31% | great |
| XLE | 15 | BUY | +3.84% | great |
| XLF | 20 | BUY | +2.08% | great |
| XLU | 5 | SELL | +4.19% | great |
| XLV | 25 | BUY | +5.28% | great |
| XLY | 10 | BUY | +9.55% | great |
| XRT | 15 | BUY | +2.23% | great |
| IJH | 5 | SELL | +0.66% | better |
| XHB | 20 | SELL | +1.79% | better |
| XLF | 5 | BUY | +1.12% | better |
| XLP | 5 | BUY | +1.09% | better |
| XLP | 10 | BUY | +1.18% | better |
| XLP | 25 | BUY | +1.57% | better |
| XRT | 20 | BUY | +0.80% | better |
| BND | 10 | SELL | -0.12% | flat |
| BND | 25 | SELL | -0.00% | flat |
| IWM | 5 | SELL | -0.01% | flat |
| JNK | 10 | SELL | -0.44% | flat |
| KBE | 5 | BUY | +0.42% | flat |
| URTY | 5 | SELL | +0.35% | flat |
| XES | 10 | BUY | +0.28% | flat |
| XLV | 5 | SELL | +0.01% | flat |
| JNK | 15 | SELL | -0.61% | bad |
| KBE | 20 | BUY | -0.89% | bad |
| KBE | 25 | BUY | -1.30% | bad |
| XES | 5 | BUY | -1.63% | bad |
| XLI | 10 | SELL | -1.38% | bad |
| XLI | 20 | BUY | -1.32% | bad |
| GLD | 15 | SELL | -7.95% | ugly |
| IJH | 10 | SELL | -2.67% | ugly |
| XBI | 10 | SELL | -4.58% | ugly |
| XES | 20 | SELL | -6.99% | ugly |
| XES | 25 | SELL | -5.91% | ugly |
| XLB | 20 | SELL | -4.45% | ugly |
| XLB | 25 | SELL | -3.75% | ugly |
| XLI | 25 | BUY | -3.02% | ugly |
| XLU | 25 | BUY | -7.69% | ugly |
| XOP | 10 | BUY | -4.40% | ugly |
Post dated August 1, 2026 (signal close July 31)
Matured calls: 39. Great 8, better 4, flat 6, bad 6, ugly 15.
| ETF | Horizon | Signal | Realized Return | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DIA | 20 | BUY | +2.05% | great |
| SPY | 20 | BUY | +2.99% | great |
| XLB | 5 | BUY | +4.82% | great |
| XLE | 10 | BUY | +3.96% | great |
| XLE | 15 | BUY | +6.87% | great |
| XLF | 20 | BUY | +2.04% | great |
| XLV | 20 | BUY | +5.30% | great |
| XOP | 20 | BUY | +4.81% | great |
| XLF | 5 | BUY | +1.16% | better |
| XLF | 15 | BUY | +0.95% | better |
| XLI | 20 | SELL | +1.50% | better |
| XOP | 10 | BUY | +1.74% | better |
| BND | 10 | SELL | -0.11% | flat |
| BND | 20 | SELL | -0.11% | flat |
| JNK | 10 | SELL | -0.30% | flat |
| JNK | 15 | SELL | -0.20% | flat |
| KBE | 5 | BUY | +0.46% | flat |
| XLP | 20 | BUY | +0.47% | flat |
| IJH | 15 | SELL | -1.99% | bad |
| IWM | 20 | SELL | -1.56% | bad |
| KBE | 15 | BUY | -1.31% | bad |
| KBE | 20 | BUY | -1.71% | bad |
| XHB | 20 | SELL | -0.88% | bad |
| XLY | 15 | SELL | -1.66% | bad |
| DIA | 5 | SELL | -2.92% | ugly |
| GLD | 15 | SELL | -13.95% | ugly |
| GLD | 20 | SELL | -10.05% | ugly |
| IJH | 10 | SELL | -4.52% | ugly |
| IWM | 5 | SELL | -3.56% | ugly |
| QQQ | 15 | SELL | -3.70% | ugly |
| QQQ | 20 | SELL | -4.13% | ugly |
| URTY | 5 | SELL | -10.53% | ugly |
| XHB | 5 | SELL | -6.86% | ugly |
| XLE | 5 | BUY | -3.44% | ugly |
| XLI | 10 | SELL | -3.71% | ugly |
| XLU | 20 | BUY | -3.65% | ugly |
| XOP | 5 | BUY | -6.20% | ugly |
| XRT | 15 | BUY | -2.31% | ugly |
| XRT | 20 | BUY | -3.22% | ugly |
Post dated August 8, 2026 (signal close August 7)
Matured calls: 26. Great 9, better 9, flat 2, bad 4, ugly 2.
| ETF | Horizon | Signal | Realized Return | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KBE | 5 | BUY | +2.43% | great |
| TQQQ | 10 | SELL | +4.43% | great |
| TQQQ | 15 | SELL | +3.52% | great |
| XES | 5 | BUY | +9.57% | great |
| XLE | 15 | BUY | +9.01% | great |
| XLV | 10 | BUY | +5.40% | great |
| XME | 10 | BUY | +3.11% | great |
| XOP | 10 | BUY | +13.91% | great |
| XOP | 15 | BUY | +11.74% | great |
| GLD | 5 | BUY | +0.76% | better |
| QQQ | 5 | BUY | +1.11% | better |
| QQQ | 10 | SELL | +1.33% | better |
| UPRO | 5 | BUY | +1.01% | better |
| XLF | 5 | BUY | +0.97% | better |
| XLF | 15 | BUY | +0.87% | better |
| XLP | 5 | BUY | +1.14% | better |
| XLP | 10 | BUY | +1.02% | better |
| XME | 5 | BUY | +1.21% | better |
| JNK | 10 | SELL | -0.06% | flat |
| XLP | 15 | BUY | +0.39% | flat |
| DIA | 5 | BUY | -0.52% | bad |
| DIA | 15 | BUY | -0.85% | bad |
| IJH | 10 | BUY | -1.31% | bad |
| IWM | 10 | BUY | -0.53% | bad |
| KBE | 15 | BUY | -2.16% | ugly |
| XRT | 10 | BUY | -3.42% | ugly |
Post dated August 15, 2026 (signal close August 14)
Matured calls: 13. Great 3, better 1, flat 2, bad 3, ugly 4.
| ETF | Horizon | Signal | Realized Return | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| XBI | 5 | BUY | +5.29% | great |
| XLV | 10 | BUY | +2.26% | great |
| XOP | 10 | BUY | +3.02% | great |
| XLB | 5 | BUY | +1.90% | better |
| BND | 5 | SELL | +0.11% | flat |
| JNK | 5 | BUY | -0.10% | flat |
| DIA | 5 | BUY | -0.85% | bad |
| XLF | 5 | BUY | -1.17% | bad |
| XLY | 10 | BUY | -0.84% | bad |
| TQQQ | 5 | BUY | -7.32% | ugly |
| XES | 5 | BUY | -2.63% | ugly |
| XHB | 5 | BUY | -2.31% | ugly |
| XLK | 10 | BUY | -2.27% | ugly |
Post dated August 22, 2026 (signal close August 21)
Matured calls: 12. Great 0, better 6, flat 4, bad 2, ugly 0.
| ETF | Horizon | Signal | Realized Return | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DIA | 5 | BUY | +0.53% | better |
| UPRO | 5 | BUY | +1.27% | better |
| XHB | 5 | SELL | +1.78% | better |
| XLF | 5 | BUY | +1.08% | better |
| XLK | 5 | BUY | +1.30% | better |
| XLRE | 5 | SELL | +1.33% | better |
| JNK | 5 | BUY | +0.10% | flat |
| QQQ | 5 | BUY | +0.42% | flat |
| SPY | 5 | BUY | +0.47% | flat |
| XLU | 5 | SELL | +0.09% | flat |
| IJH | 5 | BUY | -1.32% | bad |
| XLP | 5 | BUY | -0.63% | bad |
Over the prior five published weeks (July 25 through August 22), 136 calls have matured. Great 35, better 27, flat 22, bad 21, ugly 31. Directed win rate (great + better versus bad + ugly) is 54.4% on 114 decided trades. Across every matured call since the June 13 file, the same directed win rate is 55.7% (162 wins, 129 losses, 44 flats).
Recent hits worth owning in the record: UPRO 20-day BUY from July 24 closed +9.99%; XLY 10-day BUY from July 24 closed +9.55%; XLE 15-day BUY from July 31 closed +6.87%; XBI 5-day BUY from August 14 closed +5.29%. Recent misses: XME 25-day SELL from July 17 closed −21.34%; GLD 15-day SELL from July 31 closed −13.95%; URTY 5-day SELL from July 31 closed −10.53%; TQQQ 5-day BUY from August 14 closed −7.32%. The 5-week book is still slightly better than a coin flip. August 1 was the weak sheet. August 8 and August 22 pulled the average back up.
Nothing in this post is a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
— Stock Trends with Joe
