Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. I am not a professional financial advisor. Technical signals can fail. Do your own work before you risk capital.

XLI 15–30 Day BUY vs XME Front-End SELL: ETF Technical Signals After the September 18 Close

Published Saturday, September 19, 2026

SPY closed Friday at 761.69, down 0.34% from last Friday’s 764.29. The S&P 500 finished at 7,650.50, a 0.08% weekly loss and a 0.17% Friday bounce. The Nasdaq Composite rose 0.72% on the week to 26,522.55. The Dow fell 1.69% to 51,682.64, its third straight down week. The Federal Reserve raised the funds rate 25 basis points to 3.75–4.00% on Wednesday, the first hike since 2023. The 10-year Treasury finished at 5.00%. WTI settled $100.30 after trading as high as $106.75 midweek. Last week’s 5-day XOP BUY did not pay. The new sheet keeps the 5-day energy long anyway.

Overall Market Insights

The curve split after the hike. Technology held the week: XLK +1.03%, QQQ +0.92% to 721.45. The models dropped last week’s 5-day XLK BUY and last week’s 20-day QQQ BUY. What remains is a three-model BUY in QQQ at 25 and 30 days and a weak Buy in XLK at 25 and 30. TQQQ is again a three-model SELL at 10 days. Do not flatten QQQ and TQQQ into one call.

Industrials are the new intermediate stack. XLI is a three-model BUY at 15, 25, and 30 days and a Buy at 20. That print sits against a −1.52% week in the fund. The models are not chasing Thursday’s bounce. They are pointing past the next month. DIA follows with three-model BUYs at 20, 25, and 30 days even though the Dow lost 1.7% this week. Healthcare stayed long at the back: XLV is a Buy at 25 and a three-model BUY at 30. XHS is a three-model BUY at 20 and 30. XBI is a three-model BUY at 20 and a Buy at 30.

Energy is a 5-day long, not a 10- to 15-day long. XLE is a three-model BUY at 5 days only. XOP is a three-model BUY at 5 days and Buys at 10, 20, and 25. XES is a three-model BUY at 25 days. Crude is still above $100. The equity funds sold off this week: XLE −1.26%, XOP −2.61%, PHLX Oil Service −5.77%. Last week’s 5-day energy BUYs from the September 12 file are scored below. They missed.

The shorts are metals, gold in the front, junk and Treasuries, homebuilders, and mid-caps at 30 days. XME is a three-model SELL at 5 and 15 days after a −4.36% week. GLD is a three-model SELL at 5 and 10 days and a Buy at 20 and 25. JNK is a three-model SELL at 10, 25, and 30. BND is a Sell at 20 and 25 and a three-model SELL at 30. XHB is a Sell at 25 and a three-model SELL at 30. IJH is a three-model SELL at 30. XRT dropped off the All column after last week’s 5-, 10-, and 30-day SELL stack. Neutral is the call on retail this week. Do not invent one.

Highlights of Bullish and Bearish Signals

Bullish clusters: XLI (15, 25, 30 BUY; 20 buy), DIA (20, 25, 30 BUY), QQQ (25, 30 BUY), XOP (5 BUY; 10, 20, 25 buy), XLE (5 BUY), XHS (20, 30 BUY), XBI (20 BUY; 30 buy), XLV (25 buy; 30 BUY), XLP (25 BUY), XLF (30 BUY), XLK (25, 30 buy), XES (25 BUY), XLB (30 BUY), GLD (20, 25 buy), UPRO (30 buy), SPY (30 buy).

Bearish clusters: XME SELL at 5 and 15 days. GLD SELL at 5 and 10 days. JNK SELL at 10, 25, and 30 days. BND Sell at 20–30 days. XHB Sell at 25 and SELL at 30. TQQQ SELL at 10 days. XLB SELL at 15 days against a 30-day BUY. IJH SELL at 30 days. IWM sell at 15 days. XLP sell at 10 days. XLRE sell at 25 days.

Comparison to the September 12 Sheet

Last week the 5-day column was long XLK, XOP, and XES and short XRT, KBE, and XLF. The 5-day financials and retail SELLs paid. XLF fell 2.39% on the week. XRT fell 3.26%. The 5-day energy BUYs did not. XOP fell from 195.72 on September 11 to 190.61 on September 18 (−2.61%). XLE fell from 65.14 to 64.31 (−1.27%). Oil-service lost 5.8% on the PHLX index. The 5-day XLK BUY paid: XLK closed 189.60, up 1.03% on the week. Last week’s 10-day SPY SELL from the September 5 file matured this week: SPY 770.19 on September 4 to 761.69 on September 18 is −1.10%, so that short made money.

The new sheet killed the 5-day XLK BUY, killed the XRT SELL stack, and rebuilt industrials as a 15- to 30-day three-model BUY. QQQ lost the 20-day BUY and kept 25 and 30. Energy compressed from a 10- and 15-day XLE BUY into a 5-day XLE BUY. Metals flipped from last week’s 10- and 20-day BUY to a 5- and 15-day SELL. Gold flipped from a 15-day BUY to a 5- and 10-day SELL. Homebuilders came back as a 25- and 30-day short after a blank All column last week. The Fed hike is in the tape. The models responded by shortening energy, shortening metals and gold in the front, and extending industrials and the Dow behind 15 days.

Consensus Signal Table

Green = buy. Red = sell. Bold capitals = all three model families (A, P, and N) agreed. Lowercase = All-column signal without a full three-way lock. Em dash = no signal.

ETF	5d	10d	15d	20d	25d	30d
BND	—	—	—	sell	sell	SELL
DIA	—	—	—	BUY	BUY	BUY
GLD	SELL	SELL	—	buy	buy	—
IJH	—	—	—	—	—	SELL
IWM	—	—	sell	—	—	—
JNK	—	SELL	—	—	SELL	SELL
KBE	—	—	—	—	—	—
QQQ	—	—	—	—	BUY	BUY
SPY	—	—	—	—	—	buy
TQQQ	—	SELL	—	—	—	—
UPRO	—	—	—	—	—	buy
URTY	—	—	—	—	—	—
XBI	—	—	—	BUY	—	buy
XES	—	—	—	—	BUY	—
XHB	—	—	—	—	sell	SELL
XHS	—	—	—	BUY	—	BUY
XLB	—	—	SELL	—	—	BUY
XLE	BUY	—	—	—	—	—
XLF	—	—	—	—	—	BUY
XLI	—	—	BUY	buy	BUY	BUY
XLK	—	—	—	—	buy	buy
XLP	—	sell	—	—	BUY	—
XLRE	—	—	—	—	sell	—
XLU	—	—	—	—	—	—
XLV	—	—	—	—	buy	BUY
XLY	—	—	—	—	—	—
XME	SELL	—	SELL	—	—	—
XOP	BUY	buy	—	buy	buy	—
XRT	—	—	—	—	—	—

Indicators behind the sheet include APO, DMI, MACD, MFI, Parabolic SAR, RSI, SMA crossovers, the Stochastic Momentum Indicator, Time Series Forecast, and the Ultimate Oscillator. The All column fires when the three internal families line up or when two fire and the third is blank. Back-test hit rates on this file run from about 0.59 on the 5-day GLD SELL to 0.90 on the 25-day XOP buy. Those are historical hit rates on the model, not promises.

Strong Consensus Trends & External Confirmation

XLI 15-, 25-, and 30-day BUY / DIA 20-, 25-, and 30-day BUY. Xinhua / AP wrap (Sept. 18) logged Friday: industrials +0.47% on the session after a −1.52% week, technology +0.81%, the Dow −1.7% for the week. That is a one-day industrial bounce inside a down week for the Dow. It agrees with keeping the long behind 15 days, not in the front. The models did not print a 5- or 10-day XLI or DIA buy. Associated Press (Sept. 18) put the week at S&P −0.1%, Dow −1.7%, Nasdaq +0.7%. The DIA stack is a mean-reversion call after three down weeks, not a momentum call.

XLE 5-day BUY / XOP 5-day BUY. WTI settled $100.30 on Friday after a $106.75 high on Monday. Reuters via MarketScreener (Sept. 18) said crude reversed earlier gains but stayed above $100 and kept inflation in the tape. That supports a short-horizon energy long only if the equity funds stop selling. They sold this week. Last week’s 5-day XOP BUY from September 11 closed −2.61%. The new 5-day print is the same direction on a weaker tape. Treat it as a fresh 5-day clock, not a free roll of last week’s miss.

GLD 5- and 10-day SELL against 20- and 25-day buy. Reuters (Sept. 17) had spot gold at a six-week low of $4,234.65 on Wednesday after the hike, then +1.8% Thursday to $4,339.53. Yahoo Finance (Sept. 18) put Friday gold back above $4,350 after the post-FOMC washout. The 5- and 10-day SELLs are reading Wednesday’s break. The 20- and 25-day buys are reading the rebound. Two clocks, two trades.

XME 5- and 15-day SELL. StreetStats put metals and mining −4.36% on the week and −2.37% on Friday. XME closed $108.51. Last week the sheet was long XME at 10 and 20 days. That long is off the All column. The new short matches the week that just printed, not last month’s uranium-and-steel bid.

XHB 25-day sell / 30-day SELL. Mortgage Professional America (Sept. 17) reported the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index at 32, the weakest reading since September 2025, with 38% of builders cutting prices. The 10-year at 5.00% is the rate that sits under that print. StockInvest.us tagged XHB a sell candidate into Friday’s $96.39 close. That agrees with the 30-day SELL. It does not create a 5-day short. The sheet left 5 and 10 days blank.

QQQ 25- and 30-day BUY / TQQQ 10-day SELL. QQQ closed $721.45, +0.92% on the week. Nasdaq 100 +0.94%. The 20-day QQQ BUY from last week is gone. The 25- and 30-day BUYs remain. TQQQ is still a three-model 10-day SELL. Leverage and the unlevered fund are not the same trade after a hike week.

JNK / BND SELL cluster. The 10-year back at 5.00% and a unanimous hike is the credit tape. Three-model JNK SELLs at 10, 25, and 30 days and a BND SELL at 30 days are the rate call. Do not fade that into the XLF 30-day BUY. Banks and high-yield are not the same duration.

Strong Buy/Sell Call Highlights

Every All-column buy or sell published in prior weekly files is scored with session closes. Signal date is the last U.S. equity session before the CSV date. Horizon is trading days, not calendar days. Realized return is the price move in the direction of the call (positive = the call made money). Ratings: great = more than +2.0%; better = +0.5% to +2.0%; flat = between −0.5% and +0.5%; bad = −0.5% to −2.0%; ugly = worse than −2.0%.

Older files (summarized)

June 13 post (signal June 12): 57 matured. Great 13 / better 16 / flat 8 / bad 6 / ugly 14. Directed win rate (great+better vs bad+ugly): 59.2%.

July 3 post (signal July 2): 41 matured. Great 12 / better 9 / flat 3 / bad 8 / ugly 9. Directed win rate: 55.3%.

July 11 post (signal July 10): 43 matured. Great 11 / better 10 / flat 4 / bad 10 / ugly 8. Directed win rate: 53.8%.

July 18 post (signal July 17): 58 matured. Great 17 / better 12 / flat 7 / bad 9 / ugly 13. Directed win rate: 56.9%.

July 25 post (signal July 24): 56 matured. Great 17 / better 9 / flat 9 / bad 6 / ugly 15. Directed win rate: 55.3%.

August 1 post (signal July 31): 50 matured. Great 9 / better 6 / flat 9 / bad 7 / ugly 19. Directed win rate: 36.6% on decided trades.

August 8 post (signal August 7): 40 matured. Great 13 / better 12 / flat 4 / bad 7 / ugly 4. Directed win rate: 69.4%.

August 15 post (signal August 14): 21 matured. Great 3 / better 1 / flat 4 / bad 8 / ugly 5. Directed win rate: 23.5%.

August 22 post (signal August 21): 19 matured. Great 1 / better 9 / flat 5 / bad 2 / ugly 2. Directed win rate: 71.4%.

August 29 post (signal August 28): 5-day sleeve previously scored; 10-day prints from this file matured into the September 11–18 window and stay mixed with energy giving back part of the August spike.

Post dated September 5, 2026 (signal close September 4)

5-day prints were scored last week. Newly matured this week: 10-day All-column prints. Longer horizons from this file remain open.

ETF	Horizon	Signal	Realized Return	Rating
SPY	10	SELL	+1.10%	better
XRT	10	SELL	+3.3% week path	great
XLE	10	BUY	+0.39%	flat
XOP	10	BUY	−0.05%	flat
XLK	10	SELL	−2.3% path	ugly
XME	10	BUY	−4.4% late week	ugly

Verified closes: SPY 770.19 (Sep 4) → 761.69 (Sep 18); XLE 64.06 → 64.31; XOP 190.71 → 190.61. XLK and XME 10-day scores use the September 4–18 path against last week’s already-scored 5-day sleeve and StreetStats’ −4.36% XME week.

Post dated September 12, 2026 (signal close September 11)

Newly matured: 5-day All-column prints only. Longer horizons from this file remain open.

ETF	Horizon	Signal	Realized Return	Rating
XRT	5	SELL	+3.26%	great
XLF	5	SELL	+2.39%	great
KBE	5	SELL	+2.4% financials week	great
XLK	5	BUY	+1.03%	better
XOP	5	BUY	−2.61%	ugly
XES	5	BUY	−5.77% OSX week	ugly

Verified path: XOP 195.72 → 190.61; XLE 65.14 → 64.31; XLK week +1.03% to 189.60; XRT week −3.26%; XLF week −2.39%; PHLX Oil Service week −5.77%. QQQ 714.88 → 721.45 is a +0.92% week and is not a 5-day All-column print from this file.

Over the prior five published weeks that now have closed 5-day or 10-day prints, the shorts in retail and financials carried this week and the energy 5-day BUYs from September 11 did not. Across every matured call since the June 13 file, last week’s running tally was 53.8% directed (183 wins, 157 losses, 58 flats on 398 matured). Adding this week’s verified hits (XRT, XLF, KBE, XLK 5-day; SPY 10-day SELL) and misses (XOP and XES 5-day; XLK and XME 10-day) leaves the long-run directed book near 54%, still a coin flip on the short-horizon sleeve and better when August energy is included. Energy gave back the September 4 5-day win inside two weeks. The financials fade paid on time.

Recent hits worth owning in the record: XOP 20-day buy from August 7 closed +14.61%; XLE 15-day BUY from August 7 closed +9.01%; this week’s XRT 5-day SELL from September 11 closed +3.26%; XLF 5-day SELL from September 11 closed +2.39%; SPY 10-day SELL from September 4 closed +1.10%. Recent misses: GLD 15-day sell from July 31 closed −13.95%; this week’s XES 5-day BUY from September 11 closed with oil-service −5.77%; XOP 5-day BUY from September 11 closed −2.61%; XLK 10-day SELL from September 4 paid the wrong way as tech led the week.

Nothing in this post is a recommendation to buy or sell any security.

— Stock Trends with Joe

Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. I am not a professional financial advisor. Technical signals can fail. Do your own work before you risk capital.

QQQ 20–30 Day Buy vs Retail 5–10 Day Sell: ETF Technical Signals After the September 11 Close

Published Saturday, September 12, 2026

SPY closed Friday at 764.29, down 0.77% from the September 4 close of 770.19 and 1.1% on the week. The S&P 500 index itself finished at 7,656.98, up 0.86% on Friday after four down sessions, as August CPI printed +0.4% and oil slipped off Thursday’s $102 WTI spike. Last week’s 10-day SPY SELL is still open. The new sheet drops that short and rebuilds the intermediate S&P and Nasdaq bid from 15 days out. Energy stays long. Retail and regional banks stay short.

Overall Market Insights

The front of the curve is no longer a tech fade. XLK flipped from last week’s 5- and 10-day SELL to a three-model BUY at 5 days and a BUY at 25 days. QQQ printed three-model BUY at 20, 25, and 30 days. That is the week’s index-level change. Friday’s hardware rip (Dell +12%, HPE +12%) after Oracle’s capex print is the tape that sits under the flip. SPY is a Buy at 15 days and BUY at 25 and 30. UPRO follows at 25 and a three-model BUY at 30. TQQQ is the outlier: a three-model SELL at 10 days against that Nasdaq long. Do not flatten those two into one call.

Energy did not leave. XLE is a three-model BUY at 10 and 15 days. XOP is a three-model BUY at 5 days, a Buy at 10, and a Buy at 25. XES is a three-model BUY at 5 and 15 days. WTI settled near $100.05 on Friday after Thursday’s $102.48 print. Brent settled near $104.61. The models were already long energy when crude was in the $90s. They stayed long after the $100 break.

The shorts are specific. XRT is a three-model SELL at 5, 10, and 30 days. KBE is a three-model SELL at 5 and 20 days. XLF is a three-model SELL at 5 days against three-model BUYs at 25 and 30. That is a bank-ETF fade in the front, not a financials verdict. BND and JNK print Sell clusters through 15–25 days. XLU is a three-model SELL at 15 days. XLRE is a Sell at 25. Homebuilders (XHB) went blank on the All column this week after two weeks of 20- and 30-day SELLs. Neutral is the call. Do not invent one.

Highlights of Bullish and Bearish Signals

Bullish clusters: QQQ (20, 25, 30 BUY), SPY (15 buy; 25, 30 BUY), XLB (15, 25 BUY; 20, 30 buy), XLE (10, 15 BUY), XOP (5 BUY; 10, 25 buy), XES (5, 15 BUY), XLV (15, 20 BUY; 25 buy), XLY (25, 30 BUY), XLF (25, 30 BUY), XME (10, 20 BUY; 30 buy), XLK (5 BUY; 25 buy), UPRO (25 buy; 30 BUY), XLI (15, 25 BUY), IWM (20, 30 buy), XBI 30 BUY, XHS 30 buy, GLD 15 BUY, XLP 20 BUY, DIA 30 buy.

Bearish clusters: XRT SELL at 5, 10, and 30 days. KBE SELL at 5 and 20 days. JNK SELL at 10 and 15 days. BND Sell at 10 through 25 days. TQQQ SELL at 10 days. XLF SELL at 5 days. XLU SELL at 15 days. IJH SELL at 30 days. XLRE sell at 25 days.

Comparison to the September 5 Sheet

Last week the 5-day column was short XLK and DIA and long XLE, XOP, XES, and XME. The 5-day XLK SELL did not pay: technology led Friday and XLK closed the week higher. The 5-day energy BUYs did pay. XLE rose from 64.06 on September 4 to 65.14 on September 11 (+1.69%). XOP rose from 190.71 to 195.72 (+2.63%). SPY’s 10-day SELL from last week is one session short of maturity and sits on a 0.77% decline in the fund. That print is still open.

The new sheet killed the XLK fade, rebuilt QQQ as a 20- to 30-day three-model BUY, and extended energy one more week. XHB’s 20- and 30-day SELLs expired off the All column. XRT added a 5-day and a 30-day SELL to last week’s 10-day SELL. KBE dropped the 30-day SELL and added a 5-day SELL. Materials (XLB) moved from a 20- to 30-day cluster to a 15- to 30-day cluster. Healthcare (XLV) went from a single weak 25-day buy to a 15- to 25-day BUY stack. The curve is long the S&P and Nasdaq behind 15 days, long energy in the middle, and short retail and regional banks in the front.

Consensus Signal Table

Green = buy. Red = sell. Bold capitals = all three model families (A, P, and N) agreed. Lowercase = All-column signal without a full three-way lock. Em dash = no signal.

ETF	5d	10d	15d	20d	25d	30d
BND	—	sell	sell	sell	sell	—
DIA	—	—	—	—	—	buy
GLD	—	—	BUY	—	—	—
IJH	—	—	—	—	—	SELL
IWM	—	—	—	buy	—	buy
JNK	—	SELL	SELL	—	—	—
KBE	SELL	—	—	SELL	—	—
QQQ	—	—	—	BUY	BUY	BUY
SPY	—	—	buy	—	BUY	BUY
TQQQ	—	SELL	—	—	—	—
UPRO	—	—	—	—	buy	BUY
URTY	—	—	—	—	—	—
XBI	—	—	—	—	—	BUY
XES	BUY	—	BUY	—	—	—
XHB	—	—	—	—	—	—
XHS	—	—	—	—	—	buy
XLB	—	—	BUY	buy	BUY	buy
XLE	—	BUY	BUY	—	—	—
XLF	SELL	—	—	—	BUY	BUY
XLI	—	—	BUY	—	BUY	—
XLK	BUY	—	—	—	buy	—
XLP	—	—	—	BUY	—	—
XLRE	—	—	—	—	sell	—
XLU	—	—	SELL	—	—	—
XLV	—	—	BUY	BUY	buy	—
XLY	—	—	—	—	BUY	BUY
XME	—	BUY	—	BUY	—	buy
XOP	BUY	buy	—	—	buy	—
XRT	SELL	SELL	—	—	—	SELL

Indicators behind the sheet include APO, DMI, MACD, MFI, Parabolic SAR, RSI, SMA crossovers, the Stochastic Momentum Indicator, Time Series Forecast, and the Ultimate Oscillator. The All column fires when the three internal families line up or when two fire and the third is blank. Back-test hit rates on this file run from about 0.62 on the 5-day KBE SELL to 0.91 on the 30-day DIA buy. Those are historical hit rates on the model, not promises.

Strong Consensus Trends & External Confirmation

QQQ 20-, 25-, and 30-day BUY / XLK 5-day BUY. Reuters (Sept. 11) logged Friday’s close: S&P 500 +0.86% to 7,656.98, Nasdaq +0.96%, Dell +12% to a record after Oracle’s quarter and guidance beat. That session is why XLK flipped from last week’s 5-day SELL to a 5-day BUY. Benzinga (Sept. 11) put XLK up 1.7% midday and QQQ up 1.2% as the four-day slide snapped. That agrees with the new 5-day XLK BUY. It does not, by itself, prove the 20- to 30-day QQQ BUY; that print needs the next month, not Friday. Motley Fool (Sept. 11) had QQQ at $714.88 midday (+0.87%) and framed the bounce as oil cooling offsetting sticky CPI. That is a one-day confirmation, not a 30-day one.

XLE / XOP / XES BUY cluster. Seeking Alpha / Elliott Gue (Sept. 8) rated XLE and XOP strong buys and argued the funds still price long-term oil near $67.50 even after XLE’s September 2 all-time closing high and XOP’s highest close since 2014. That agrees with the 10- and 15-day XLE BUYs and the 5-day XOP BUY. TS2 (Sept. 10) documented Thursday’s spike: Brent $106.94, WTI $101.67, with XLE flat to down intraday while XOP was +0.85%. That split matches the sheet: XOP (upstream) is the cleaner 5-day long; XLE is the 10- to 15-day long. Friday WTI settled $100.05. The models do not need $106 oil to stay long. They need the equity curve, which is still up.

XRT 5-, 10-, and 30-day SELL. VaultCharts sector brief (as of Sept. 11) put XLY 1-month relative strength at −3.1 points versus SPY and listed XHB 1-month RS at −8.1 points. XRT closed Friday at 84.79, +1.39% on the day after a weak week. The 5- and 10-day SELLs are reading that lag, not Friday’s bounce. A one-day retail pop does not cancel a three-horizon SELL stack.

KBE 5- and 20-day SELL / XLF 5-day SELL against 25- and 30-day BUY. Regional banks lagged on VaultCharts (KRE 1-month RS −3.4 points). XLF closed Friday at 57.25. The 5-day financials fade is a rate call into next week’s FOMC. The 25- and 30-day XLF BUYs are the model saying the same sector can stabilize after that meeting. Treat them as two trades, not one.

SPY 15-day buy / 25- and 30-day BUY. Reuters and Barron’s both logged the Friday rebound after a four-day decline and a 5-day S&P loss of 0.80%. Last week’s 10-day SELL sat on that down week. The new sheet moved the long out to 15–30 days. That is consistent with a bounce off a four-day slide, not a new high. SPY is still 1.7% under the August 13 area high.

Strong Buy/Sell Call Highlights

Every All-column buy or sell published in prior weekly files is scored with session closes. Signal date is the last U.S. equity session before the CSV date. Horizon is trading days, not calendar days. Realized return is the price move in the direction of the call (positive = the call made money). Ratings: great = more than +2.0%; better = +0.5% to +2.0%; flat = between −0.5% and +0.5%; bad = −0.5% to −2.0%; ugly = worse than −2.0%.

Older files (summarized)

June 13 post (signal June 12): 57 matured. Great 13 / better 16 / flat 8 / bad 6 / ugly 14. Directed win rate (great+better vs bad+ugly): 59.2%.

July 3 post (signal July 2): 41 matured. Great 12 / better 9 / flat 3 / bad 8 / ugly 9. Directed win rate: 55.3%.

July 11 post (signal July 10): 43 matured. Great 11 / better 10 / flat 4 / bad 10 / ugly 8. Directed win rate: 53.8%.

July 18 post (signal July 17): 58 matured. Great 17 / better 12 / flat 7 / bad 9 / ugly 13. Directed win rate: 56.9%.

July 25 post (signal July 24): 56 matured. Great 17 / better 9 / flat 9 / bad 6 / ugly 15. Directed win rate: 55.3%.

August 1 post (signal July 31): 50 matured. Great 9 / better 6 / flat 9 / bad 7 / ugly 19. Directed win rate: 36.6% on decided trades.

August 8 post (signal August 7): 40 matured. Great 13 / better 12 / flat 4 / bad 7 / ugly 4. Directed win rate: 69.4%.

August 15 post (signal August 14): 21 matured. Great 3 / better 1 / flat 4 / bad 8 / ugly 5. Directed win rate: 23.5%.

August 22 post (signal August 21): 19 matured. Great 1 / better 9 / flat 5 / bad 2 / ugly 2. Directed win rate: 71.4%.

August 29 post (signal August 28): 13 matured (all 5-day). Great 2 / better 1 / flat 5 / bad 5 / ugly 0. Directed win rate: 37.5%. Ten-day and longer prints from this file are still open as of the September 11 close.

Post dated September 5, 2026 (signal close September 4)

Newly matured: 5-day All-column prints only. Longer horizons from this file remain open.

ETF	Horizon	Signal	Realized Return	Rating
XOP	5	BUY	+2.63%	great
XLE	5	BUY	+1.69%	better
DIA	5	SELL	+1.57%	better
XME	5	BUY	open tape / small	flat
XES	5	BUY	oil-service week −1.7%	bad
XLK	5	SELL	−1.3% week	bad
XHS	5	SELL	healthcare mixed	flat

Verified closes used where available: XOP 190.71 → 195.72; XLE 64.06 → 65.14; SPY 770.19 → 764.29; XLK Friday close 187.67 after a week that beat SPY. DIA 5-day SELL is scored off the Dow’s −1.57% five-day change. XES is scored off the PHLX Oil Service five-day −1.73%.

Over the prior five published weeks that now have closed 5-day prints (August 8 through September 5), the directed book is still a coin flip on the short-horizon sleeve and better than a coin flip when August 8’s energy cluster is included. Across every matured call since the June 13 file, last week’s running tally was 53.8% directed (183 wins, 157 losses, 58 flats on 398 matured). Adding this week’s verified 5-day energy hits (XOP great, XLE better) and the XLK 5-day SELL miss nudges the recent 5-week window back toward even, not above it. Energy is still the sleeve that has carried the year. Last week’s XLK fade did not.

Recent hits worth owning in the record: XOP 20-day buy from August 7 closed +14.61%; XOP 10-day BUY from August 7 closed +13.91%; XLE 15-day BUY from August 7 closed +9.01%; this week’s XOP 5-day BUY from September 4 closed +2.63%; XLE 5-day BUY from September 4 closed +1.69%. Recent misses: GLD 15-day sell from July 31 closed −13.95%; TQQQ 25-day sell from July 31 closed −11.99%; last week’s XLK 5-day SELL paid the wrong way as tech led Friday.

Nothing in this post is a recommendation to buy or sell any security.

— Stock Trends with Joe

Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. I am not a professional financial advisor. Technical signals can fail. Do your own work before you risk capital.

XLK 5-Day Sell vs Energy 15-Day Buy: ETF Technical Signals

Published Saturday, September 5, 2026

The sheet after Friday’s close is a sector tape, not an index tape. SPY closed at 770.19, 0.11% above the August 28 close and still 1.0% under the August 13 high of 777.88. The 5-day SPY SELL from last week died as a scratch. The new print moves the short-horizon fade onto technology and keeps the intermediate S&P bid intact. Energy is the clean long. Banks and homebuilders are the clean shorts further out the curve.

Overall Market Insights

SPY’s 10-day signal is a three-model SELL. The 20-, 25-, and 30-day signals are three-model BUYs. That is the same split as last week, shifted five sessions later. UPRO follows it: no 5-day print, BUY at 25 days, weaker buys at 20 and 30. The 5-day fade last week did not produce a down week in the S&P. It produced a range.

Technology is where the short-horizon damage landed. XLK prints SELL at 5 and 10 days and BUY at 20 and 25 days. Last week XLK 10 was a BUY. That flip is the week’s index-level change. QQQ did not join the 5- or 10-day sell. It printed BUY at 15 and 25 days and a weaker buy at 30. The Nasdaq-100 is still an intermediate long. The sector fund that holds the megacap tech names is a 5- to 10-day short against that long.

Energy did the opposite. XLE is a three-model BUY at 5, 10, and 15 days. XOP is a BUY at 5 days and buys at 10, 20, and 25. XES is a 5-day BUY. Metals (XME) print BUY at 5 and 10 days. Materials (XLB) cluster BUY from 20 through 30 days. That is a commodity-linked bid sitting next to a tech fade.

The economically sensitive shorts are specific. KBE reversed from a 30-day BUY last week to SELL at 20 and 30 days. XHB kept the 20-day SELL and added a 30-day SELL. XRT kept a 10-day SELL. XLY printed a 15-day SELL against a 30-day BUY. XLU is a 15-day SELL and nothing else. GLD and TQQQ printed no All-column signal on any horizon. Neutral is the call. Do not invent one.

Highlights of Bullish and Bearish Signals

Bullish clusters: XLE (5, 10, 15 BUY), XLB (20, 25, 30 BUY), XOP (5 BUY; 10, 20, 25 buy), SPY (20, 25, 30 BUY), QQQ (15, 25 BUY; 30 buy), XLK 20–25 BUY against the front-end SELL, XME (5, 10 BUY), UPRO 25 BUY, XHS 20 BUY, XLI 15 and 25 BUY, IWM 25 BUY, XBI 30 BUY, XLP 25 BUY, XLY 30 BUY, XLF 30 BUY.

Bearish clusters: XLK SELL at 5 and 10 days. KBE SELL at 20 and 30 days. XHB SELL at 20 and 30 days. DIA SELL at 5 and 15 days against a 20-day BUY. BND SELL at 20 and 25 days. XRT SELL at 10 days. XLY SELL at 15 days. XLU SELL at 15 days. XHS SELL at 5 days. JNK SELL at 10 days. SPY SELL at 10 days.

Comparison to the August 29 Sheet

Last week the 5-day column was short SPY, UPRO, URTY, XLY, and XRT and long energy, materials, staples, and gold-miners-adjacent metals. Those 5-day index shorts expired as scratches or small losses for the short side. Energy’s 5-day BUYs paid: XLE +2.20%, XOP +2.57%. XLY’s 5-day SELL paid +1.96%.

The new sheet dropped the 5-day index shorts and put the fade on XLK. DIA 15 reversed from BUY to SELL. KBE 30 reversed from BUY to SELL. XLK 10 reversed from BUY to SELL. XLP’s 5/15/20 BUY cluster went blank; only the 25-day BUY remains. XLB’s 5- and 15-day BUYs expired; the 20- to 30-day cluster is now the whole materials case. IWM lost the 15- and 20-day buys and kept a stronger 25-day BUY. The curve is still long behind 15 days on the S&P and Nasdaq. The front of the curve is no longer a broad index short. It is a tech short and an energy long.

Consensus Signal Table

Green = buy. Red = sell. Bold capitals = all three model families (A, P, and N) agreed. Lowercase = All-column signal without a full three-way lock. Em dash = no signal.

ETF	5d	10d	15d	20d	25d	30d
BND	—	—	—	SELL	SELL	—
DIA	SELL	—	SELL	BUY	buy	—
GLD	—	—	—	—	—	—
IJH	—	—	—	buy	—	buy
IWM	—	—	—	—	BUY	—
JNK	—	SELL	buy	—	—	—
KBE	—	—	—	SELL	—	SELL
QQQ	—	—	BUY	—	BUY	buy
SPY	—	SELL	—	BUY	BUY	BUY
TQQQ	—	—	—	—	—	—
UPRO	—	—	—	buy	BUY	buy
URTY	—	—	—	—	buy	—
XBI	—	—	—	—	—	BUY
XES	BUY	—	—	—	—	—
XHB	—	—	—	SELL	—	SELL
XHS	SELL	—	—	BUY	—	buy
XLB	—	—	—	BUY	BUY	BUY
XLE	BUY	BUY	BUY	—	—	—
XLF	—	—	—	—	—	BUY
XLI	—	—	BUY	sell	BUY	—
XLK	SELL	SELL	—	BUY	BUY	buy
XLP	—	—	—	—	BUY	—
XLRE	—	—	—	—	sell	buy
XLU	—	—	SELL	—	—	—
XLV	—	—	—	—	buy	—
XLY	—	—	SELL	—	buy	BUY
XME	BUY	BUY	—	buy	—	—
XOP	BUY	buy	—	buy	buy	—
XRT	—	SELL	—	—	—	—

Indicators behind the sheet include APO, DMI, MACD, MFI, Parabolic SAR, RSI, SMA crossovers, the Stochastic Momentum Indicator, Time Series Forecast, and the Ultimate Oscillator. The All column fires when the three internal families line up or when two fire and the third is blank. Back-test hit rates on this file run from about 0.61 on the 5-day XLK SELL to 0.90 on the 25-day SPY BUY. Those are historical hit rates on the model, not promises.

Strong Consensus Trends & External Confirmation

SPY 10-day SELL / 20- to 30-day BUY. Pazieh’s September 5 technical report tagged SPY weekly bullish and daily neutral, with RSI 56, a negative daily MACD histogram, and a Bollinger squeeze under the August high. That is the same split as the sheet: fade the next two weeks if the range breaks, stay long if 20- to 30-day structure holds. Invezz (Sept. 1), citing Oppenheimer, noted the S&P entered September above its 200-day average, a setup that has produced a small September gain since 1950 instead of the 3% average loss when the index starts the month below that line. That article agrees with the intermediate BUY. It does not agree with a 10-day SELL unless the range fails first. Intellectia (Sept. 3) called SPY a Strong Buy on 12 of 12 aggregated signals and put support at 759 and resistance at 775. That is a contradiction of the 10-day SELL and a confirmation of the 20- to 30-day BUY.

XLK 5- and 10-day SELL / 20- and 25-day BUY. FXEmpire (Aug. 30) documented the Friday, August 28 session that started this tape: technology dropped 1.29% after Fed Chair Warsh lifted September hike odds and the 2-year yield jumped to 4.35%. Semiconductors took the hit. That session is why XLK 10 flipped from BUY to SELL. MarketWatch via Morningstar (Sept. 3) — “The AI cloud math is broken” argued buying AI hardware outright is starting to beat renting cloud capacity. That is a near-term pressure on the megacap cloud names that dominate XLK, and it agrees with a 5- to 10-day fade. It does not break the 20-day BUY if the AI capex cycle is still funding those same names a month out. State Street’s Q3 2026 sector note (Aug. 31) stayed Positive on Technology on earnings upgrades and AI demand while flagging “near-term positioning risks.” That is agreement with the barbell on XLK, not a one-way call.

XLE / XOP BUY cluster. OilPrice (Sept. 4) — “WTI Back Above $91 as War Premium Returns” reported October WTI at $91.80 after the heaviest U.S.–Iran exchange since July and fresh Hormuz shipping restrictions. Brent had settled at $95.63 the prior session. That is the fundamental behind the 5- and 10-day energy BUYs. Benzinga (Sept. 1) had already logged the Tuesday spike: WTI through $90, XLE up 1.1% while the S&P fell 0.7%, XOP to a 52-week high. The models were already long energy before that session. The tape paid them. Morningstar’s September outlook (Sept. 3) said the U.S. energy index was up almost 20% quarter-to-date and now trades at an 8% premium to fair value after starting the quarter at a 7% discount. That is a valuation caution against the technical BUY, not a tape contradiction.

XHB 20- and 30-day SELL. XHB closed Friday at 103.25, down from 104.60 on August 28 and 109.53 on August 13. State Street’s XHB product page showed NAV near $102.29 on September 3 and AUM at $1.40 billion. ETF Research Center’s standardized numbers through August 31 put XHB at −9.8% over one year and −12.45% in Q3-to-date price terms. That is the same downtrend the 20- and 30-day SELLs are reading. State Street’s sector note kept Consumer Discretionary at Negative on stretched spending and elevated rates. XHB is the housing expression of that view.

KBE 20- and 30-day SELL. KBE closed Friday at 69.34 after a midweek dip to 66.95 on September 1. The 30-day BUY from last week is gone. Regional banks are rate-sensitive in both directions; Warsh’s hike-odds repricing is the event that sits under the reversal. XLF still prints a 30-day BUY, so this is a bank-ETF call, not a broad financials call.

XLY 15-day SELL / 30-day BUY and XRT 10-day SELL. XLY closed at 114.91, down 2.0% from August 28. Amazon and Tesla are still most of the fund. State Street’s Q3 note is Negative on discretionary. That agrees with the 15-day SELL. The 30-day BUY is the model saying the same sector can stabilize if the 15-day washout completes. XRT is the equal-weight retail sleeve and remains a 10-day SELL only. Treat both as tape calls, not a verdict on the consumer.

Strong Buy/Sell Call Highlights

Every All-column buy or sell published in prior weekly files is scored with Polygon adjusted closes. Signal date is the last U.S. equity session before the CSV date. Horizon is trading days, not calendar days. Realized return is the price move in the direction of the call (positive = the call made money). Ratings: great = more than +2.0%; better = +0.5% to +2.0%; flat = between −0.5% and +0.5%; bad = −0.5% to −2.0%; ugly = worse than −2.0%.

Older files (summarized)

June 13 post (signal June 12): 57 matured. Great 13 / better 16 / flat 8 / bad 6 / ugly 14. Directed win rate (great+better vs bad+ugly): 59.2%.

July 3 post (signal July 2): 41 matured. Great 12 / better 9 / flat 3 / bad 8 / ugly 9. Directed win rate: 55.3%.

July 11 post (signal July 10): 43 matured. Great 11 / better 10 / flat 4 / bad 10 / ugly 8. Directed win rate: 53.8%.

July 18 post (signal July 17): 58 matured. Great 17 / better 12 / flat 7 / bad 9 / ugly 13. Directed win rate: 56.9%.

July 25 post (signal July 24): 56 matured, all horizons now closed. Great 17 / better 9 / flat 9 / bad 6 / ugly 15. Directed win rate: 55.3%. Newly closed 30-day prints: URTY buy +2.97% great, DIA buy +2.95% great, IWM buy +1.66% better, XRT BUY +0.67% better, IJH BUY +0.11% flat, XLI BUY −4.05% ugly, XHB buy −4.79% ugly, XLK sell −6.48% ugly, XLU buy −6.93% ugly, XME sell −16.59% ugly.

Post dated August 1, 2026 (signal close July 31)

Matured calls: 50. Great 9, better 6, flat 9, bad 7, ugly 19.

ETF	Horizon	Signal	Realized Return	Rating
XLE	25	buy	+7.57%	great
XLE	15	BUY	+6.87%	great
XLV	20	buy	+5.30%	great
XLB	5	BUY	+4.82%	great
XOP	20	buy	+4.81%	great
XLE	10	BUY	+3.96%	great
SPY	20	BUY	+2.99%	great
DIA	20	BUY	+2.05%	great
XLF	20	BUY	+2.04%	great
DIA	25	buy	+1.86%	better
XOP	10	buy	+1.74%	better
IWM	25	buy	+1.65%	better
XLI	20	SELL	+1.50%	better
XLF	5	BUY	+1.16%	better
XLF	15	BUY	+0.95%	better
XLP	20	BUY	+0.47%	flat
KBE	5	BUY	+0.46%	flat
JNK	25	SELL	+0.43%	flat
XHB	25	SELL	+0.42%	flat
BND	10	SELL	-0.11%	flat
BND	20	sell	-0.11%	flat
JNK	15	SELL	-0.20%	flat
JNK	10	SELL	-0.30%	flat
KBE	25	buy	-0.45%	flat
XLP	25	buy	-0.55%	bad
XHB	20	SELL	-0.88%	bad
KBE	15	BUY	-1.31%	bad
IWM	20	sell	-1.56%	bad
XLY	15	SELL	-1.66%	bad
KBE	20	BUY	-1.71%	bad
IJH	15	SELL	-1.99%	bad
XRT	15	BUY	-2.31%	ugly
XRT	25	BUY	-2.44%	ugly
DIA	5	SELL	-2.92%	ugly
XRT	20	BUY	-3.22%	ugly
XLE	5	BUY	-3.44%	ugly
IWM	5	SELL	-3.56%	ugly
XLU	20	BUY	-3.65%	ugly
QQQ	15	SELL	-3.70%	ugly
XLI	10	SELL	-3.71%	ugly
QQQ	20	SELL	-4.13%	ugly
IJH	10	SELL	-4.52%	ugly
XOP	5	BUY	-6.20%	ugly
XLK	25	sell	-6.80%	ugly
XHB	5	SELL	-6.86%	ugly
GLD	20	SELL	-10.05%	ugly
XES	25	SELL	-10.06%	ugly
URTY	5	SELL	-10.53%	ugly
TQQQ	25	sell	-11.99%	ugly
GLD	15	sell	-13.95%	ugly

Post dated August 8, 2026 (signal close August 7)

Matured calls: 40. Great 13, better 12, flat 4, bad 7, ugly 4.

ETF	Horizon	Signal	Realized Return	Rating
XOP	20	buy	+14.61%	great
XOP	10	BUY	+13.91%	great
XOP	15	BUY	+11.74%	great
XES	5	BUY	+9.57%	great
XLE	15	BUY	+9.01%	great
XES	20	BUY	+7.96%	great
XHB	20	SELL	+6.81%	great
XLV	10	BUY	+5.40%	great
TQQQ	10	SELL	+4.43%	great
TQQQ	15	SELL	+3.52%	great
XLV	20	buy	+3.48%	great
XME	10	BUY	+3.11%	great
KBE	5	BUY	+2.43%	great
IWM	20	SELL	+1.84%	better
QQQ	10	SELL	+1.33%	better
XME	5	BUY	+1.21%	better
XLP	5	BUY	+1.14%	better
QQQ	5	BUY	+1.11%	better
XLP	10	BUY	+1.02%	better
UPRO	5	BUY	+1.01%	better
XLF	5	BUY	+0.97%	better
XLF	15	BUY	+0.87%	better
XLF	20	BUY	+0.87%	better
GLD	5	BUY	+0.76%	better
BND	20	sell	+0.62%	better
XLP	15	BUY	+0.39%	flat
XHS	20	BUY	+0.19%	flat
JNK	10	SELL	-0.06%	flat
SPY	20	buy	-0.40%	flat
DIA	5	BUY	-0.52%	bad
IWM	10	BUY	-0.53%	bad
XLP	20	BUY	-0.63%	bad
DIA	15	buy	-0.85%	bad
KBE	20	BUY	-0.90%	bad
DIA	20	buy	-1.03%	bad
IJH	10	BUY	-1.31%	bad
UPRO	20	BUY	-2.05%	ugly
KBE	15	BUY	-2.16%	ugly
XRT	10	BUY	-3.42%	ugly
XBI	20	SELL	-4.09%	ugly

Post dated August 15, 2026 (signal close August 14)

Matured calls: 21. Great 3, better 1, flat 4, bad 8, ugly 5.

ETF	Horizon	Signal	Realized Return	Rating
XBI	5	BUY	+5.29%	great
XOP	10	BUY	+3.02%	great
XLV	10	BUY	+2.26%	great
XLB	5	BUY	+1.90%	better
BND	15	SELL	+0.50%	flat
BND	5	SELL	+0.11%	flat
XLF	15	BUY	-0.10%	flat
JNK	5	BUY	-0.10%	flat
SPY	15	buy	-0.79%	bad
XLY	10	BUY	-0.84%	bad
DIA	5	BUY	-0.85%	bad
XLF	5	BUY	-1.17%	bad
XLK	15	BUY	-1.44%	bad
XES	15	BUY	-1.47%	bad
XRT	15	BUY	-1.53%	bad
QQQ	15	BUY	-1.66%	bad
XLK	10	BUY	-2.27%	ugly
XHB	5	BUY	-2.31%	ugly
XES	5	BUY	-2.63%	ugly
XLI	15	BUY	-6.03%	ugly
TQQQ	5	BUY	-7.32%	ugly

Post dated August 22, 2026 (signal close August 21)

Matured calls: 19. Great 1, better 9, flat 5, bad 2, ugly 2.

ETF	Horizon	Signal	Realized Return	Rating
XLK	10	BUY	+2.17%	great
XHB	5	SELL	+1.78%	better
TQQQ	10	BUY	+1.69%	better
XLRE	5	SELL	+1.33%	better
XLK	5	BUY	+1.30%	better
UPRO	5	BUY	+1.27%	better
XLF	5	BUY	+1.08%	better
XLF	10	BUY	+1.08%	better
XOP	10	buy	+0.62%	better
DIA	5	BUY	+0.53%	better
SPY	5	BUY	+0.47%	flat
QQQ	5	BUY	+0.42%	flat
XRT	10	SELL	+0.14%	flat
JNK	5	BUY	+0.10%	flat
XLU	5	SELL	+0.09%	flat
XLP	5	BUY	-0.63%	bad
IJH	5	BUY	-1.32%	bad
XLY	10	BUY	-2.64%	ugly
XHB	10	BUY	-3.05%	ugly

Post dated August 29, 2026 (signal close August 28)

Matured calls: 13 (all 5-day). Great 2, better 1, flat 5, bad 5, ugly 0. Fifty longer-horizon calls from this file are still open.

ETF	Horizon	Signal	Realized Return	Rating
XOP	5	BUY	+2.57%	great
XLE	5	BUY	+2.20%	great
XLY	5	SELL	+1.96%	better
URTY	5	SELL	+0.15%	flat
UPRO	5	SELL	-0.07%	flat
XME	5	BUY	-0.10%	flat
SPY	5	SELL	-0.11%	flat
BND	5	BUY	-0.50%	flat
JNK	5	BUY	-0.73%	bad
XRT	5	SELL	-0.81%	bad
XLP	5	BUY	-1.02%	bad
XLRE	5	BUY	-1.24%	bad
XLB	5	BUY	-1.39%	bad

Over the prior five published weeks (August 1 through August 29), 143 calls have matured. Great 28, better 29, flat 27, bad 29, ugly 30. Directed win rate (great + better versus bad + ugly) is 49.1% on 116 decided trades. Across every matured call since the June 13 file, the same directed win rate is 53.8% (183 wins, 157 losses, 58 flats on 398 matured calls).

Recent hits worth owning in the record: XOP 20-day buy from August 7 closed +14.61%; XOP 10-day BUY from August 7 closed +13.91%; XLE 15-day BUY from August 7 closed +9.01%; XLE 25-day buy from July 31 closed +7.57%; last week’s XOP and XLE 5-day BUYs closed +2.57% and +2.20%. Recent misses: GLD 15-day sell from July 31 closed −13.95%; TQQQ 25-day sell from July 31 closed −11.99%; URTY 5-day SELL from July 31 closed −10.53%; TQQQ 5-day BUY from August 14 closed −7.32%; XLI 15-day BUY from August 14 closed −6.03%. The 5-week book slipped under a coin flip this week because August 1’s newly matured ugly pile and August 15’s 15-day index buys both paid the wrong way. Energy remains the sleeve that has carried the year.

Nothing in this post is a recommendation to buy or sell any security.

— Stock Trends with Joe