Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. I am not a professional financial advisor. Technical signals can fail. Do your own work before you risk capital.
XLK 5-Day Sell vs Energy 15-Day Buy: ETF Technical Signals
Published Saturday, September 5, 2026
The sheet after Friday’s close is a sector tape, not an index tape. SPY closed at 770.19, 0.11% above the August 28 close and still 1.0% under the August 13 high of 777.88. The 5-day SPY SELL from last week died as a scratch. The new print moves the short-horizon fade onto technology and keeps the intermediate S&P bid intact. Energy is the clean long. Banks and homebuilders are the clean shorts further out the curve.
Overall Market Insights
SPY’s 10-day signal is a three-model SELL. The 20-, 25-, and 30-day signals are three-model BUYs. That is the same split as last week, shifted five sessions later. UPRO follows it: no 5-day print, BUY at 25 days, weaker buys at 20 and 30. The 5-day fade last week did not produce a down week in the S&P. It produced a range.
Technology is where the short-horizon damage landed. XLK prints SELL at 5 and 10 days and BUY at 20 and 25 days. Last week XLK 10 was a BUY. That flip is the week’s index-level change. QQQ did not join the 5- or 10-day sell. It printed BUY at 15 and 25 days and a weaker buy at 30. The Nasdaq-100 is still an intermediate long. The sector fund that holds the megacap tech names is a 5- to 10-day short against that long.
Energy did the opposite. XLE is a three-model BUY at 5, 10, and 15 days. XOP is a BUY at 5 days and buys at 10, 20, and 25. XES is a 5-day BUY. Metals (XME) print BUY at 5 and 10 days. Materials (XLB) cluster BUY from 20 through 30 days. That is a commodity-linked bid sitting next to a tech fade.
The economically sensitive shorts are specific. KBE reversed from a 30-day BUY last week to SELL at 20 and 30 days. XHB kept the 20-day SELL and added a 30-day SELL. XRT kept a 10-day SELL. XLY printed a 15-day SELL against a 30-day BUY. XLU is a 15-day SELL and nothing else. GLD and TQQQ printed no All-column signal on any horizon. Neutral is the call. Do not invent one.
Highlights of Bullish and Bearish Signals
Bullish clusters: XLE (5, 10, 15 BUY), XLB (20, 25, 30 BUY), XOP (5 BUY; 10, 20, 25 buy), SPY (20, 25, 30 BUY), QQQ (15, 25 BUY; 30 buy), XLK 20–25 BUY against the front-end SELL, XME (5, 10 BUY), UPRO 25 BUY, XHS 20 BUY, XLI 15 and 25 BUY, IWM 25 BUY, XBI 30 BUY, XLP 25 BUY, XLY 30 BUY, XLF 30 BUY.
Bearish clusters: XLK SELL at 5 and 10 days. KBE SELL at 20 and 30 days. XHB SELL at 20 and 30 days. DIA SELL at 5 and 15 days against a 20-day BUY. BND SELL at 20 and 25 days. XRT SELL at 10 days. XLY SELL at 15 days. XLU SELL at 15 days. XHS SELL at 5 days. JNK SELL at 10 days. SPY SELL at 10 days.
Comparison to the August 29 Sheet
Last week the 5-day column was short SPY, UPRO, URTY, XLY, and XRT and long energy, materials, staples, and gold-miners-adjacent metals. Those 5-day index shorts expired as scratches or small losses for the short side. Energy’s 5-day BUYs paid: XLE +2.20%, XOP +2.57%. XLY’s 5-day SELL paid +1.96%.
The new sheet dropped the 5-day index shorts and put the fade on XLK. DIA 15 reversed from BUY to SELL. KBE 30 reversed from BUY to SELL. XLK 10 reversed from BUY to SELL. XLP’s 5/15/20 BUY cluster went blank; only the 25-day BUY remains. XLB’s 5- and 15-day BUYs expired; the 20- to 30-day cluster is now the whole materials case. IWM lost the 15- and 20-day buys and kept a stronger 25-day BUY. The curve is still long behind 15 days on the S&P and Nasdaq. The front of the curve is no longer a broad index short. It is a tech short and an energy long.
Consensus Signal Table
Green = buy. Red = sell. Bold capitals = all three model families (A, P, and N) agreed. Lowercase = All-column signal without a full three-way lock. Em dash = no signal.
| ETF | 5d | 10d | 15d | 20d | 25d | 30d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BND | — | — | — | SELL | SELL | — |
| DIA | SELL | — | SELL | BUY | buy | — |
| GLD | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| IJH | — | — | — | buy | — | buy |
| IWM | — | — | — | — | BUY | — |
| JNK | — | SELL | buy | — | — | — |
| KBE | — | — | — | SELL | — | SELL |
| QQQ | — | — | BUY | — | BUY | buy |
| SPY | — | SELL | — | BUY | BUY | BUY |
| TQQQ | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| UPRO | — | — | — | buy | BUY | buy |
| URTY | — | — | — | — | buy | — |
| XBI | — | — | — | — | — | BUY |
| XES | BUY | — | — | — | — | — |
| XHB | — | — | — | SELL | — | SELL |
| XHS | SELL | — | — | BUY | — | buy |
| XLB | — | — | — | BUY | BUY | BUY |
| XLE | BUY | BUY | BUY | — | — | — |
| XLF | — | — | — | — | — | BUY |
| XLI | — | — | BUY | sell | BUY | — |
| XLK | SELL | SELL | — | BUY | BUY | buy |
| XLP | — | — | — | — | BUY | — |
| XLRE | — | — | — | — | sell | buy |
| XLU | — | — | SELL | — | — | — |
| XLV | — | — | — | — | buy | — |
| XLY | — | — | SELL | — | buy | BUY |
| XME | BUY | BUY | — | buy | — | — |
| XOP | BUY | buy | — | buy | buy | — |
| XRT | — | SELL | — | — | — | — |
Indicators behind the sheet include APO, DMI, MACD, MFI, Parabolic SAR, RSI, SMA crossovers, the Stochastic Momentum Indicator, Time Series Forecast, and the Ultimate Oscillator. The All column fires when the three internal families line up or when two fire and the third is blank. Back-test hit rates on this file run from about 0.61 on the 5-day XLK SELL to 0.90 on the 25-day SPY BUY. Those are historical hit rates on the model, not promises.
Strong Consensus Trends & External Confirmation
SPY 10-day SELL / 20- to 30-day BUY. Pazieh’s September 5 technical report tagged SPY weekly bullish and daily neutral, with RSI 56, a negative daily MACD histogram, and a Bollinger squeeze under the August high. That is the same split as the sheet: fade the next two weeks if the range breaks, stay long if 20- to 30-day structure holds. Invezz (Sept. 1), citing Oppenheimer, noted the S&P entered September above its 200-day average, a setup that has produced a small September gain since 1950 instead of the 3% average loss when the index starts the month below that line. That article agrees with the intermediate BUY. It does not agree with a 10-day SELL unless the range fails first. Intellectia (Sept. 3) called SPY a Strong Buy on 12 of 12 aggregated signals and put support at 759 and resistance at 775. That is a contradiction of the 10-day SELL and a confirmation of the 20- to 30-day BUY.
XLK 5- and 10-day SELL / 20- and 25-day BUY. FXEmpire (Aug. 30) documented the Friday, August 28 session that started this tape: technology dropped 1.29% after Fed Chair Warsh lifted September hike odds and the 2-year yield jumped to 4.35%. Semiconductors took the hit. That session is why XLK 10 flipped from BUY to SELL. MarketWatch via Morningstar (Sept. 3) — “The AI cloud math is broken” argued buying AI hardware outright is starting to beat renting cloud capacity. That is a near-term pressure on the megacap cloud names that dominate XLK, and it agrees with a 5- to 10-day fade. It does not break the 20-day BUY if the AI capex cycle is still funding those same names a month out. State Street’s Q3 2026 sector note (Aug. 31) stayed Positive on Technology on earnings upgrades and AI demand while flagging “near-term positioning risks.” That is agreement with the barbell on XLK, not a one-way call.
XLE / XOP BUY cluster. OilPrice (Sept. 4) — “WTI Back Above $91 as War Premium Returns” reported October WTI at $91.80 after the heaviest U.S.–Iran exchange since July and fresh Hormuz shipping restrictions. Brent had settled at $95.63 the prior session. That is the fundamental behind the 5- and 10-day energy BUYs. Benzinga (Sept. 1) had already logged the Tuesday spike: WTI through $90, XLE up 1.1% while the S&P fell 0.7%, XOP to a 52-week high. The models were already long energy before that session. The tape paid them. Morningstar’s September outlook (Sept. 3) said the U.S. energy index was up almost 20% quarter-to-date and now trades at an 8% premium to fair value after starting the quarter at a 7% discount. That is a valuation caution against the technical BUY, not a tape contradiction.
XHB 20- and 30-day SELL. XHB closed Friday at 103.25, down from 104.60 on August 28 and 109.53 on August 13. State Street’s XHB product page showed NAV near $102.29 on September 3 and AUM at $1.40 billion. ETF Research Center’s standardized numbers through August 31 put XHB at −9.8% over one year and −12.45% in Q3-to-date price terms. That is the same downtrend the 20- and 30-day SELLs are reading. State Street’s sector note kept Consumer Discretionary at Negative on stretched spending and elevated rates. XHB is the housing expression of that view.
KBE 20- and 30-day SELL. KBE closed Friday at 69.34 after a midweek dip to 66.95 on September 1. The 30-day BUY from last week is gone. Regional banks are rate-sensitive in both directions; Warsh’s hike-odds repricing is the event that sits under the reversal. XLF still prints a 30-day BUY, so this is a bank-ETF call, not a broad financials call.
XLY 15-day SELL / 30-day BUY and XRT 10-day SELL. XLY closed at 114.91, down 2.0% from August 28. Amazon and Tesla are still most of the fund. State Street’s Q3 note is Negative on discretionary. That agrees with the 15-day SELL. The 30-day BUY is the model saying the same sector can stabilize if the 15-day washout completes. XRT is the equal-weight retail sleeve and remains a 10-day SELL only. Treat both as tape calls, not a verdict on the consumer.
Strong Buy/Sell Call Highlights
Every All-column buy or sell published in prior weekly files is scored with Polygon adjusted closes. Signal date is the last U.S. equity session before the CSV date. Horizon is trading days, not calendar days. Realized return is the price move in the direction of the call (positive = the call made money). Ratings: great = more than +2.0%; better = +0.5% to +2.0%; flat = between −0.5% and +0.5%; bad = −0.5% to −2.0%; ugly = worse than −2.0%.
Older files (summarized)
June 13 post (signal June 12): 57 matured. Great 13 / better 16 / flat 8 / bad 6 / ugly 14. Directed win rate (great+better vs bad+ugly): 59.2%.
July 3 post (signal July 2): 41 matured. Great 12 / better 9 / flat 3 / bad 8 / ugly 9. Directed win rate: 55.3%.
July 11 post (signal July 10): 43 matured. Great 11 / better 10 / flat 4 / bad 10 / ugly 8. Directed win rate: 53.8%.
July 18 post (signal July 17): 58 matured. Great 17 / better 12 / flat 7 / bad 9 / ugly 13. Directed win rate: 56.9%.
July 25 post (signal July 24): 56 matured, all horizons now closed. Great 17 / better 9 / flat 9 / bad 6 / ugly 15. Directed win rate: 55.3%. Newly closed 30-day prints: URTY buy +2.97% great, DIA buy +2.95% great, IWM buy +1.66% better, XRT BUY +0.67% better, IJH BUY +0.11% flat, XLI BUY −4.05% ugly, XHB buy −4.79% ugly, XLK sell −6.48% ugly, XLU buy −6.93% ugly, XME sell −16.59% ugly.
Post dated August 1, 2026 (signal close July 31)
Matured calls: 50. Great 9, better 6, flat 9, bad 7, ugly 19.
| ETF | Horizon | Signal | Realized Return | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| XLE | 25 | buy | +7.57% | great |
| XLE | 15 | BUY | +6.87% | great |
| XLV | 20 | buy | +5.30% | great |
| XLB | 5 | BUY | +4.82% | great |
| XOP | 20 | buy | +4.81% | great |
| XLE | 10 | BUY | +3.96% | great |
| SPY | 20 | BUY | +2.99% | great |
| DIA | 20 | BUY | +2.05% | great |
| XLF | 20 | BUY | +2.04% | great |
| DIA | 25 | buy | +1.86% | better |
| XOP | 10 | buy | +1.74% | better |
| IWM | 25 | buy | +1.65% | better |
| XLI | 20 | SELL | +1.50% | better |
| XLF | 5 | BUY | +1.16% | better |
| XLF | 15 | BUY | +0.95% | better |
| XLP | 20 | BUY | +0.47% | flat |
| KBE | 5 | BUY | +0.46% | flat |
| JNK | 25 | SELL | +0.43% | flat |
| XHB | 25 | SELL | +0.42% | flat |
| BND | 10 | SELL | -0.11% | flat |
| BND | 20 | sell | -0.11% | flat |
| JNK | 15 | SELL | -0.20% | flat |
| JNK | 10 | SELL | -0.30% | flat |
| KBE | 25 | buy | -0.45% | flat |
| XLP | 25 | buy | -0.55% | bad |
| XHB | 20 | SELL | -0.88% | bad |
| KBE | 15 | BUY | -1.31% | bad |
| IWM | 20 | sell | -1.56% | bad |
| XLY | 15 | SELL | -1.66% | bad |
| KBE | 20 | BUY | -1.71% | bad |
| IJH | 15 | SELL | -1.99% | bad |
| XRT | 15 | BUY | -2.31% | ugly |
| XRT | 25 | BUY | -2.44% | ugly |
| DIA | 5 | SELL | -2.92% | ugly |
| XRT | 20 | BUY | -3.22% | ugly |
| XLE | 5 | BUY | -3.44% | ugly |
| IWM | 5 | SELL | -3.56% | ugly |
| XLU | 20 | BUY | -3.65% | ugly |
| QQQ | 15 | SELL | -3.70% | ugly |
| XLI | 10 | SELL | -3.71% | ugly |
| QQQ | 20 | SELL | -4.13% | ugly |
| IJH | 10 | SELL | -4.52% | ugly |
| XOP | 5 | BUY | -6.20% | ugly |
| XLK | 25 | sell | -6.80% | ugly |
| XHB | 5 | SELL | -6.86% | ugly |
| GLD | 20 | SELL | -10.05% | ugly |
| XES | 25 | SELL | -10.06% | ugly |
| URTY | 5 | SELL | -10.53% | ugly |
| TQQQ | 25 | sell | -11.99% | ugly |
| GLD | 15 | sell | -13.95% | ugly |
Post dated August 8, 2026 (signal close August 7)
Matured calls: 40. Great 13, better 12, flat 4, bad 7, ugly 4.
| ETF | Horizon | Signal | Realized Return | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| XOP | 20 | buy | +14.61% | great |
| XOP | 10 | BUY | +13.91% | great |
| XOP | 15 | BUY | +11.74% | great |
| XES | 5 | BUY | +9.57% | great |
| XLE | 15 | BUY | +9.01% | great |
| XES | 20 | BUY | +7.96% | great |
| XHB | 20 | SELL | +6.81% | great |
| XLV | 10 | BUY | +5.40% | great |
| TQQQ | 10 | SELL | +4.43% | great |
| TQQQ | 15 | SELL | +3.52% | great |
| XLV | 20 | buy | +3.48% | great |
| XME | 10 | BUY | +3.11% | great |
| KBE | 5 | BUY | +2.43% | great |
| IWM | 20 | SELL | +1.84% | better |
| QQQ | 10 | SELL | +1.33% | better |
| XME | 5 | BUY | +1.21% | better |
| XLP | 5 | BUY | +1.14% | better |
| QQQ | 5 | BUY | +1.11% | better |
| XLP | 10 | BUY | +1.02% | better |
| UPRO | 5 | BUY | +1.01% | better |
| XLF | 5 | BUY | +0.97% | better |
| XLF | 15 | BUY | +0.87% | better |
| XLF | 20 | BUY | +0.87% | better |
| GLD | 5 | BUY | +0.76% | better |
| BND | 20 | sell | +0.62% | better |
| XLP | 15 | BUY | +0.39% | flat |
| XHS | 20 | BUY | +0.19% | flat |
| JNK | 10 | SELL | -0.06% | flat |
| SPY | 20 | buy | -0.40% | flat |
| DIA | 5 | BUY | -0.52% | bad |
| IWM | 10 | BUY | -0.53% | bad |
| XLP | 20 | BUY | -0.63% | bad |
| DIA | 15 | buy | -0.85% | bad |
| KBE | 20 | BUY | -0.90% | bad |
| DIA | 20 | buy | -1.03% | bad |
| IJH | 10 | BUY | -1.31% | bad |
| UPRO | 20 | BUY | -2.05% | ugly |
| KBE | 15 | BUY | -2.16% | ugly |
| XRT | 10 | BUY | -3.42% | ugly |
| XBI | 20 | SELL | -4.09% | ugly |
Post dated August 15, 2026 (signal close August 14)
Matured calls: 21. Great 3, better 1, flat 4, bad 8, ugly 5.
| ETF | Horizon | Signal | Realized Return | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| XBI | 5 | BUY | +5.29% | great |
| XOP | 10 | BUY | +3.02% | great |
| XLV | 10 | BUY | +2.26% | great |
| XLB | 5 | BUY | +1.90% | better |
| BND | 15 | SELL | +0.50% | flat |
| BND | 5 | SELL | +0.11% | flat |
| XLF | 15 | BUY | -0.10% | flat |
| JNK | 5 | BUY | -0.10% | flat |
| SPY | 15 | buy | -0.79% | bad |
| XLY | 10 | BUY | -0.84% | bad |
| DIA | 5 | BUY | -0.85% | bad |
| XLF | 5 | BUY | -1.17% | bad |
| XLK | 15 | BUY | -1.44% | bad |
| XES | 15 | BUY | -1.47% | bad |
| XRT | 15 | BUY | -1.53% | bad |
| QQQ | 15 | BUY | -1.66% | bad |
| XLK | 10 | BUY | -2.27% | ugly |
| XHB | 5 | BUY | -2.31% | ugly |
| XES | 5 | BUY | -2.63% | ugly |
| XLI | 15 | BUY | -6.03% | ugly |
| TQQQ | 5 | BUY | -7.32% | ugly |
Post dated August 22, 2026 (signal close August 21)
Matured calls: 19. Great 1, better 9, flat 5, bad 2, ugly 2.
| ETF | Horizon | Signal | Realized Return | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| XLK | 10 | BUY | +2.17% | great |
| XHB | 5 | SELL | +1.78% | better |
| TQQQ | 10 | BUY | +1.69% | better |
| XLRE | 5 | SELL | +1.33% | better |
| XLK | 5 | BUY | +1.30% | better |
| UPRO | 5 | BUY | +1.27% | better |
| XLF | 5 | BUY | +1.08% | better |
| XLF | 10 | BUY | +1.08% | better |
| XOP | 10 | buy | +0.62% | better |
| DIA | 5 | BUY | +0.53% | better |
| SPY | 5 | BUY | +0.47% | flat |
| QQQ | 5 | BUY | +0.42% | flat |
| XRT | 10 | SELL | +0.14% | flat |
| JNK | 5 | BUY | +0.10% | flat |
| XLU | 5 | SELL | +0.09% | flat |
| XLP | 5 | BUY | -0.63% | bad |
| IJH | 5 | BUY | -1.32% | bad |
| XLY | 10 | BUY | -2.64% | ugly |
| XHB | 10 | BUY | -3.05% | ugly |
Post dated August 29, 2026 (signal close August 28)
Matured calls: 13 (all 5-day). Great 2, better 1, flat 5, bad 5, ugly 0. Fifty longer-horizon calls from this file are still open.
| ETF | Horizon | Signal | Realized Return | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| XOP | 5 | BUY | +2.57% | great |
| XLE | 5 | BUY | +2.20% | great |
| XLY | 5 | SELL | +1.96% | better |
| URTY | 5 | SELL | +0.15% | flat |
| UPRO | 5 | SELL | -0.07% | flat |
| XME | 5 | BUY | -0.10% | flat |
| SPY | 5 | SELL | -0.11% | flat |
| BND | 5 | BUY | -0.50% | flat |
| JNK | 5 | BUY | -0.73% | bad |
| XRT | 5 | SELL | -0.81% | bad |
| XLP | 5 | BUY | -1.02% | bad |
| XLRE | 5 | BUY | -1.24% | bad |
| XLB | 5 | BUY | -1.39% | bad |
Over the prior five published weeks (August 1 through August 29), 143 calls have matured. Great 28, better 29, flat 27, bad 29, ugly 30. Directed win rate (great + better versus bad + ugly) is 49.1% on 116 decided trades. Across every matured call since the June 13 file, the same directed win rate is 53.8% (183 wins, 157 losses, 58 flats on 398 matured calls).
Recent hits worth owning in the record: XOP 20-day buy from August 7 closed +14.61%; XOP 10-day BUY from August 7 closed +13.91%; XLE 15-day BUY from August 7 closed +9.01%; XLE 25-day buy from July 31 closed +7.57%; last week’s XOP and XLE 5-day BUYs closed +2.57% and +2.20%. Recent misses: GLD 15-day sell from July 31 closed −13.95%; TQQQ 25-day sell from July 31 closed −11.99%; URTY 5-day SELL from July 31 closed −10.53%; TQQQ 5-day BUY from August 14 closed −7.32%; XLI 15-day BUY from August 14 closed −6.03%. The 5-week book slipped under a coin flip this week because August 1’s newly matured ugly pile and August 15’s 15-day index buys both paid the wrong way. Energy remains the sleeve that has carried the year.
Nothing in this post is a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
— Stock Trends with Joe
