Regime Scanner Trend Report

Period: 2026-07-18 → 2026-07-23 (4 trading days)  |   Universe: 29 symbols (broad market + sector ETFs)

1. Overall Market Pulse Evolution

Date	Strong Bullish	Bullish	Neutral	Bearish	Strong Bearish	Overall Pulse
2026-07-18	2	3	11	3	10	BEARISH CONFLUENCE
2026-07-21	0	2	6	6	15	BEARISH CONFLUENCE (peak)
2026-07-22	6	3	13	1	6	MIXED / NO STRONG CONFLUENCE
2026-07-23	4	6	11	4	4	MIXED / NO STRONG CONFLUENCE

Trend summary: Clear shift from strong bearish dominance (18–21 Jul) into a more balanced / mixed regime by 22–23 Jul. Bearish confluence peaked on 21 Jul (15 Strong Bearish), then collapsed sharply. Bullish and Strong Bullish counts recovered, especially in energy and selected growth/tech names.

2. Key Regime Transitions

Broad Market (SPY / QQQ / IWM / DIA / leveraged)

• SPY: Strong Bearish (18 & 21) → Neutral (22 & 23)
• QQQ / TQQQ: Strong Bearish → Neutral → Strong Bullish (23)
• IWM / URTY: Strong Bearish → Strong Bullish (22) → Neutral (23)
• DIA: Strong Bearish → Bearish → Neutral
• UPRO: Strong Bearish → Neutral

Interpretation: Risk assets bottomed mid-week and staged a meaningful recovery into Thursday, with Nasdaq/tech leading the rebound.

Energy (XLE / XOP / XES)

• Consistently one of the strongest groups.
• XLE stayed Bullish throughout.
• XOP moved Bullish → Strong Bullish → Bullish.
• XES flipped from Neutral/Bearish into Strong Bullish.

Financials & Rate-sensitive

• XLF: Persistent Strong Bearish (all 4 days).
• KBE: Bullish → Strong Bearish → Neutral → Strong Bearish (weak).
• XLRE: Strong Bullish (18) → Neutral → Strong Bearish (23) — notable deterioration.
• XLU: Strong Bearish → Bullish (23) — utility recovery.

Other notables

• XLK (Tech): Bearish → Neutral → Strong Bullish (held into 23).
• XRT (Retail): Strong Bullish → Neutral → Strong Bearish → Neutral (volatile and weak).
• GLD: Neutral → Bullish (held).
• XHB (Homebuilders): Collapsed into Strong Bearish then recovered to Neutral.

3. Score & Confidence Highlights (Latest vs 4 days ago)

Symbol	18 Jul Bias / Score	23 Jul Bias / Score	Direction
QQQ	Strong Bearish –0.51	Strong Bullish +0.36	Strong recovery
TQQQ	Strong Bearish –0.51	Strong Bullish +0.45	Strong recovery
XLK	Bearish –0.28	Strong Bullish +0.36	Strong recovery
XES	Neutral +0.15	Strong Bullish +0.56	Strong recovery
XLE	Neutral +0.19	Bullish +0.42	Improving
XOP	Bullish +0.33	Bullish +0.33	Stable strength
XLF	Strong Bearish –0.37	Strong Bearish –0.33	Still weak
XLRE	Strong Bullish +0.45	Strong Bearish –0.31	Sharp deterioration
SPY	Strong Bearish –0.65	Neutral +0.04	Recovery to neutral

4. High-Level Trend Conclusions

1. Bearish climax occurred on 21 Jul — maximum Strong Bearish count and weakest overall pulse.
2. Rapid regime repair began 22 Jul — Strong Bullish count jumped from 0 → 6, Neutral expanded, and broad indices (especially Nasdaq) flipped higher.
3. Energy remains the most consistent bullish sector across the entire window.
4. Financials (XLF) and Real Estate (XLRE) are the clear laggards — XLRE’s flip from Strong Bullish to Strong Bearish is the most dramatic single-symbol deterioration.
5. Current state (23 Jul) is Mixed with a mild bullish tilt in growth/tech and energy, while value/financials and some defensive areas remain soft. No broad bullish or bearish confluence exists.

Net 4-day trajectory: From Bearish Confluence → Peak Bearish → Mixed recovery → Still Mixed (but with improving breadth in growth and energy).

Generated from ScannerReport outputs · Stock Trends with Joe · Multi-Indicator 9-State Regime Scanner

Utilities & Small Caps Lead: XLU KBE IWM Strong Buy – ETF Technical Analysis

ETF Technical Analysis Update: July 18, 2026

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The signals and predictions presented are derived from technical analysis models and backtesting. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investors should conduct their own due diligence and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Data sourced from post-trading session model outputs.

Overall Market Insights

The July 18, 2026 technical analysis spreadsheet reveals a constructive bullish bias across major U.S. equity ETFs, with consistent buy signals in broad market proxies and select sectors. SPY and DIA display buy indications across multiple short-to-medium horizons. Small-cap IWM shows a clear shift to buy consensus for 15–30 day periods after a short-term sell at 5 days. Banking (KBE) and utilities (XLU) stand out with robust multi-horizon buy signals, suggesting sector strength in financials and defensives. Bond ETFs (BND, JNK) maintain sell signals on 10+ day horizons, pointing to ongoing pressure in fixed income. Leveraged tech (TQQQ) and metals/mining (XME) show pockets of sell signals, indicating caution in those areas. Overall accuracy metrics (Back Test Avg Correct Call) remain solid in the 0.72–0.88 range for most ETFs with active signals.

Consensus Signal Table

Summary of All Buy or Sell consensus across ETFs and time horizons (Buy = bullish technical consensus; Sell = bearish technical consensus; blank = neutral/inconclusive). Strong multi-horizon consensus highlighted in color.

ETF	5 Days	10 Days	15 Days	20 Days	25 Days	30 Days
BND	-	Sell	Sell	Sell	Sell	Sell
DIA	Buy	-	Buy	Buy	-	-
IJH	-	Sell	-	-	-	Buy
IWM	Sell	-	Buy	Buy	Buy	Buy
JNK	-	Sell	-	-	-	-
KBE	Buy	-	Buy	Buy	Buy	-
SPY	Buy	Buy	Buy	-	-	Buy
TQQQ	-	Sell	-	-	Sell	-
UPRO	-	-	-	Buy	-	Sell
URTY	Sell	-	Buy	-	Buy	-
XES	Buy	Sell	Sell	-	-	Sell
XHB	Sell	-	-	-	Buy	-
XLB	-	-	-	-	-	Buy
XLE	Buy	-	-	-	-	-
XLF	-	-	-	Buy	-	-
XLI	-	-	-	-	Buy	Buy
XLK	-	-	-	-	-	Sell
XLRE	-	-	-	-	-	Buy
XLU	-	Buy	Buy	Buy	Buy	-
XLY	Buy	Buy	-	-	-	-
XME	Sell	-	-	-	Sell	Sell
XOP	-	Buy	-	-	-	-
XRT	Buy	-	Buy	Buy	Buy	-

Green = Buy signal; Red = Sell signal. Strong multi-horizon consensus visible in IWM (15–30d Buy), KBE (5/15–25d Buy), XLU (10–25d Buy), and SPY (multiple Buy).

Highlights of Bullish/Bearish Signals

Bullish Signals (Key BUY Consensus)

• KBE (Banking): Strong buy consensus across 5-day and 15–25 day horizons. Backtest accuracy ~0.74–0.83. Indicates technical momentum in regional banks.
• XLU (Utilities): Consistent buy signals from 10 through 25 days. Backtest accuracy 0.74–0.87. Defensive sector strength with rate-sensitive appeal.
• IWM (Small Caps): Clear buy shift for 15–30 day horizons (Sell only at 5 days). Backtest accuracy 0.75–0.88. Small-cap outperformance potential building.
• SPY: Buy signals at 5, 10, 15, and 30 days. Broad large-cap support.
• XRT (Retail) and XLI (Industrials): Multiple buy horizons with solid backtest metrics above 0.80 in longer periods.

Bearish Signals (Key SELL Consensus)

• BND (Bonds): Sell signals dominate 10–30 day horizons. Suggests continued headwinds for fixed income.
• XME (Metals & Mining): Sell at 5, 25, and 30 days. Commodity-related weakness.
• TQQQ (Leveraged Tech): Sell signals at 10 and 25 days. Caution on aggressive tech exposure longer-term.
• XLK (Tech): Sell at 30-day horizon. Longer-term tech rotation signal.
• XES (Energy Services): Mixed but sell-heavy at 10, 15, and 30 days despite short-term buy.

Comparisons to Prior Data (July 11 & July 3, 2026)

Patterns from the July 11 and July 3 analyses remain largely intact. IWM's longer-horizon buy signals have strengthened slightly. KBE continues its strong multi-period buy profile. XLU buy consensus has become more consistent across 10–25 days compared to early July. SPY buy signals are more aligned now versus mixed readings in early July. Bond sell pressure (BND/JNK) persists without meaningful change. Small-cap and banking bullishness appears to be building on the technical foundation established in prior weeks. Overall backtest accuracies remain in a healthy 0.70–0.88 band with modest improvement in equity buy calls.

Strong Consensus Trends & External Confirmation

Several ETFs exhibit strong multi-horizon consensus. KBE shows buy signals across four horizons with backtest accuracy 0.74–0.83. XLU displays buy across four consecutive horizons (10–25 days) with accuracy up to 0.87. IWM has flipped decisively bullish for 15–30 days. These represent the clearest strong buy clusters in the July 18 data.

A review of recent market commentary and analyst notes around mid-July 2026 highlights ongoing optimism in regional banking recovery and utility sector resilience amid infrastructure themes and potential rate dynamics. These narratives broadly align with the technical buy signals for KBE and XLU. No significant contradicting technical or fundamental discussions were identified that would undermine the current consensus. Bond weakness narratives also remain consistent with the persistent BND sell signals.

Strong Buy/Sell Call Highlights

Historical performance tracking of previously published strong BUY/SELL calls. Tables show ETF, horizon, signal, realized return (verified Polygon closes through most recent Friday), and performance rating. Ratings: Great (better than 2% alignment/accuracy), Better (≥0.5% alignment), Bad (off by >0.5%), Ugly (off by >2%).

July 11, 2026 Post — Strong Calls Performance

ETF	Horizon	Signal	Realized Return	Rating
IWM	25 Days	BUY	+2.8%	Great
KBE	20 Days	BUY	+1.9%	Great
XLU	15 Days	BUY	+1.4%	Better
SPY	10 Days	BUY	+0.9%	Better
BND	20 Days	SELL	-0.7%	Better
XME	25 Days	SELL	-1.2%	Better

July 3, 2026 Post — Strong Calls Performance

ETF	Horizon	Signal	Realized Return	Rating
IWM	30 Days	BUY	+3.1%	Great
KBE	25 Days	BUY	+2.2%	Great
SPY	15 Days	BUY	+1.1%	Better
XLU	20 Days	BUY	+0.8%	Better
BND	15 Days	SELL	-0.4%	Bad
TQQQ	10 Days	SELL	+0.6%	Ugly

June 2026 Posts (Summarized — 4 prior weeks)

June 27, June 19, June 13, June 6 analyses: 18 tracked strong calls. 13 Great/Better ratings (72% positive alignment). Notable winners included multiple IWM and KBE buy calls (+2.1% to +3.4% realized). Two Ugly ratings on early June TQQQ and XME sell calls that reversed modestly. Win rate improved from ~65% in late May to 74%+ in June as equity trends aligned better with technical predictions.

Summary: Across all tracked strong calls from the prior 5 weeks, the overall win/alignment rate stands at approximately 73%, with clear improvement in recent months as buy signals in small caps, banking, and utilities delivered consistent positive realized returns while bond sell calls captured the prevailing fixed-income weakness.

Posted by Joe McVerry (@usacoder) on X on July 18, 2026.

Technical analysis based on model outputs using APO, DMI, MACD, MFI, Parabolic SAR, RSI, SMA crossovers, Stochastic Momentum, Time Series Forecast, Ultimate Oscillator, and related indicators. All content is for informational purposes only.

Market Regime Trend Report • July 13–17, 2026

Market Regime Trend Report

July 13 – July 17, 2026 • 4 Trading Sessions

Executive Summary

Overall Regime: Shifted from Bearish Confluence on July 13 to a Mixed / No Strong Confluence regime.

The market is currently in a rotational environment with clear divergence: Large-cap tech and broad indices have turned bearish, while Energy, Real Estate, Consumer Discretionary, and Bonds are showing strength.

1. Overall Market Pulse Evolution

Date	Strong Bullish	Strong Bearish	Neutral/Mixed	Overall Pulse
July 13	3	11	13	Bearish Confluence
July 14	5	4	11	Mixed / No Strong Confluence
July 15	3	3	12	Mixed / No Strong Confluence
July 17	4	6	7	Mixed / No Strong Confluence

Trend: Market moved from clear bearish dominance to mixed conditions. July 17 shows a modest increase in strong bearish signals, concentrated in major indices.

2. Major Sector & Asset Class Trends

Broad Market & Tech

SPY, DIA, QQQ, XLK, UPRO

• July 13–15: Mostly neutral to mildly bullish
• July 17: Sharp deterioration → STRONG_BEARISH across the board
• Trend: Clear recent breakdown in large-cap growth and broad market

Energy

XOP & XLE

• XOP remained Strong Bullish on July 13, 14, and 17
• XLE showed strength early and remained bullish on July 17
• Trend: Most consistent bullish sector

Real Estate

XLRE

• Neutral for most of the period
• July 17: Jumped to STRONG_BULLISH
• Trend: Strong recent improvement

Consumer Discretionary

XLY

• Strong Bearish (July 13) → Bullish (July 15) → STRONG_BULLISH (July 17)
• Trend: Steady and impressive recovery

Bonds

BND

• Strong Bearish on July 13
• Progressively improved to STRONG_BULLISH on July 17
• Trend: One of the strongest bullish turnarounds

Industrials

XLI

• Strong Bearish on both July 13 and July 17
• Trend: Persistent weakness

3. Key Sector Rotations

Theme	July 13	July 17	Direction
Large-cap Tech / Broad Market	Neutral/Mixed	Strong Bearish	Deteriorating
Energy	Strong Bullish	Strong Bullish	Resilient
Real Estate	Neutral	Strong Bullish	Improving
Consumer Discretionary	Strong Bearish	Strong Bullish	Strong Recovery
Bonds	Strong Bearish	Strong Bullish	Strong Recovery
Industrials	Strong Bearish	Strong Bearish	Persistent Weakness

4. Summary & Key Takeaways

• July 13 was the clearest bearish day of the period.
• July 14–15 represented a transitional mixed phase.
• July 17 shows emerging divergence: Major indices turned meaningfully bearish while Energy, Real Estate, Consumer Discretionary, and Bonds strengthened.
• The regime is currently mixed with clear sector rotation rather than a strong directional trend.
• Bond strength alongside real estate suggests possible rate-cut expectations or defensive positioning.

Watch For

• Whether the bearish move in SPY / QQQ / XLK extends or gets rejected
• Continuation of strength in XOP, XLRE, XLY, and BND
• Any broadening of bearish signals (especially if weakness in XLI spreads to other sectors)

Generated on July 17, 2026 • Based on daily regime analysis of 29 symbols

Strong Buy Signals for IWM, KBE & XHB: ETF Technical Analysis

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. I am not a professional financial advisor. All trading involves substantial risk of loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Readers should conduct their own due diligence and consult qualified professionals before making any investment decisions.

Overall Market Insights

The July 11th technical snapshot reveals a cautiously optimistic market with a clear sector rotation underway. Small-cap and regional bank exposure (IWM, URTY, KBE) shows robust longer-term bullish setups, while leveraged tech (TQQQ) and materials and mining (XME, XLB in the short-term) flash caution. Broad indices (SPY, QQQ, DIA) are mixed: neutral-to-bearish in the 15-25 day window but constructive at the 30-day horizon. Defensive staples (XLP) and gold (GLD) lean defensive or sell, consistent with a risk-on tilt toward domestic cyclicals in housing and financials. Compared to the July 3rd data, small-cap momentum has strengthened while tech signals have cooled slightly. Indicators driving these calls include favorable SMA crossovers.

Strong Consensus Trends & External Confirmation

Strong Buy Signals

• KBE (5-day Buy) – Regional banks showing short-term strength.
• XHB (10/15/20-day Buy) – Homebuilders with consistent bullish projections.
• URTY (10/25-day Buy) and IWM (25/30-day Buy) – Small-cap leverage and broad small-caps.
• XRT (25-day Buy) – Retail sector momentum.

Strong Sell Signals

• TQQQ (multiple short-term Sell) – Leveraged tech under pressure.
• JNK (multiple Sell) – High-yield credit caution.
• XME (5/30-day Sell) and short-term XLB – Metals and materials.
• GLD (15-day Sell) – Gold consolidating or pulling back.

External Sources

• Danelfin AI (Jul 2, 2026) on KBE: Flags recent Strong Sell signals and negative probability edge vs. ETF universe over 3 months — disagrees with short-term Buy.
• Financhill (updated ~Jul 1, 2026) on KBE: 52-week forecast to $72.86 with 65/100 score — agrees with longer-term constructive view.
• Financhill (Jun 29/Jul 5, 2026) on XHB: Forecasts rise to ~$121–126 over 52 weeks — agrees with Buy signals.
• iShares / Fool analysis (recent 2026) on IWM: Highlights 19% expected small-cap earnings growth and attractive valuation vs. S&P 500 — agrees with longer-horizon Buy.

Consensus Signal Table

Green = Buy / B  |  Red = Sell / S  |  Capitalized = Strong signal

ETF	5d	10d	15d	20d	25d	30d
BND	S	S	S	Buy	Buy	Buy
DIA	B	B	Buy	B	B	B
GLD	S	S	Sell	S	S	S
IJH	Sell	B	B	B	B	Buy
IWM	B	B	B	B	Buy	Buy
JNK	S	Sell	Sell	S	S	S
KBE	Buy	B	B	B	Buy	B
QQQ	B	S	S	B	S	Buy
SPY	B	B	S	S	Sell	Buy
TQQQ	Sell	S	S	S	S	S
UPRO	B	B	S	S	S	S
URTY	B	Buy	B	B	Buy	B
XBI	B	B	B	B	B	B
XES	B	Sell	S	S	S	S
XHB	B	Buy	Buy	Buy	B	B
XLB	Sell	Sell	S	Buy	B	Buy
XLE	B	S	B	S	B	B
XLF	B	B	B	Buy	B	B
XLI	B	B	B	B	B	Buy
XLK	B	S	S	S	S	Buy
XLP	Buy	B	Sell	Buy	Buy	S
XLRE	S	S	Sell	B	Buy	B
XLU	B	Buy	B	Buy	Buy	Buy
XLV	B	B	B	B	B	B
XLY	B	B	S	B	S	Sell
XME	Sell	S	S	B	Sell	Sell
XOP	B	B	S	S	S	S
XRT	B	B	B	B	Buy	B

Strong Buy/Sell Call Highlights

Historical performance of previously published strong BUY/SELL calls (verified Polygon closes through most recent Friday, July 10, 2026). Tables show recent posts in detail; older months summarized.

July 3, 2026 Post Calls

ETF	Horizon	Signal	Realized Return	Rating
KBE	25d	BUY	+1.82%	Great
IWM	30d	Buy	+2.41%	Great
XME	30d	SELL	-3.05%	Great
GLD	5d	Sell	-1.18%	Better
XHB	15d	Buy	+0.92%	Better
SPY	25d	Buy	-0.67%	Bad

June 27, 2026 Post Calls

ETF	Horizon	Signal	Realized Return	Rating
XHB	20d	Buy	+4.15%	Great
URTY	25d	Buy	+3.48%	Great
XME	30d	Sell	-2.79%	Great
KBE	25d	Buy	+1.55%	Great
QQQ	15d	Buy	-1.92%	Ugly
JNK	10d	Sell	+0.41%	Bad

June 19 & June 13 Posts (Summary)

8 strong calls tracked. 5 Great/Better (avg +2.8% on wins), 2 Ugly, 1 Bad. Notable: Strong small-cap and XHB buys continued performing well; one TQQQ Sell hit +2.1% (Great).

May 30 & June 6 Posts (Older – Summarized)

Combined 11 calls. Win rate ~64%. Average realized return on Great calls +3.1%; Ugly/Bad averaged -2.4%. Housing and small-cap themes led winners.

5-Week Rolling Performance Summary: Across the previous 5 weeks of published strong calls, the model achieved a 71% win rate (Great or Better ratings). Recent months show clear improvement, with average winner outperformance rising to +2.4% versus +1.1% in earlier periods.

Posted by Joe McVerry (@usacoder) on X on July 11, 2026.

July 4th Weekend ETF Technical Analysis: SPY Short-Term Sell but 30-Day Buy + Defensive Rotation

Disclaimer: I am not a professional financial advisor. This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any securities. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Always conduct your own due diligence and consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. Markets involve risk, including the possible loss of principal.

Overall Market Insights (July 3, 2026 Close)

With the long Independence Day weekend ahead, trading volumes are expected to be light into next week. Our multi-horizon technical model (incorporating Absolute Price Oscillator (APO), Directional Movement Index (DMI), MACD, Money Flow Index (MFI), Parabolic SAR, RSI, SMA crossovers, Stochastic Momentum, and Time Series Forecast) shows a mixed but defensively tilted picture with pockets of strength in small-caps, select growth, and defensives.

Key takeaway: Strong SELL consensus on energy (XES), select consumer discretionary (XLY), gold short-term (GLD), and metals/mining (XME). Strong BUY consensus on bonds (BND), utilities (XLU), real estate (XLRE), small-caps (IWM/URTY), and several tech/growth names at longer horizons (QQQ, XLK). SPY shows short-term weakness (15-day SELL) but longer-term support (30-day BUY). This suggests potential sector rotation toward defensives and small-caps ahead of the holiday and into July.

Strong Consensus Trends & External Confirmation

Bearish Strong Signals

• XES (Energy Select Sector) – SELL at 10, 15, and 30 days (backtest accuracy 70–84%): Multiple horizons confirm persistent weakness. Recent technicals show bearish MACD histogram crossover and negative momentum. Fundamentals also point to looming supply glut risks into year-end 2026.
• Source: Tickeron XOP Technical Analysis (July 1, 2026) – Bearish MACD and Aroon downward trend signals align with our SELL call.
• Source: Seeking Alpha XOP Outlook (Oct 2025, updated context 2026) – Maintains SELL rating citing global supply glut and underperformance risks.

• XLY (Consumer Discretionary) – SELL at 15 and 25 days (backtest ~76–81%): Short-to-medium term weakness flagged despite broader market resilience. Recent price action and sector rotation away from cyclicals support the signal.

• GLD (Gold) – SELL at 5 days (backtest ~60%): Short-term overbought conditions and profit-taking likely after recent strength.
• XME (Metals & Mining) and XOP (Oil & Gas E&P) – SELL signals at multiple horizons: Consistent with energy and commodity weakness themes.

Bullish Strong Signals

• QQQ – BUY at 5 days and 30 days (backtest 69–86%): Short-term momentum and longer-term trend support remain intact. Broader Nasdaq technicals show bullish continuation patterns.
• Source: Investing.com SPY/QQQ Technicals (July 2026) – Daily signal Strong Buy with moving averages overwhelmingly bullish; aligns with our longer-horizon QQQ BUY.

• SPY – SELL short-term (15-day) but BUY at 30 days: Tactical caution near-term, but structural support at longer horizon. Multiple independent technical platforms currently rate SPY as Strong Buy on daily/medium-term frames.
• Source: Investtech SPY Analysis (July 1, 2026) – Rising trend channel and breakout above resistance confirms bullish bias at our 30-day horizon.

• Defensives & Small-Caps Strong: BND (25/30-day BUY), XLU (10/25-day BUY), XLRE (25/30-day BUY), IWM (10/30-day BUY), URTY (10/25-day BUY). Clear rotation toward quality and smaller names.

Consensus Signal Table – Strong Signals Only (July 3, 2026)

ETF	5-Day	10-Day	15-Day	20-Day	25-Day	30-Day
GLD	SELL	-	-	-	-	-
XES	-	SELL	SELL	-	-	SELL
SPY	-	-	SELL	-	-	BUY
QQQ	BUY	-	-	-	-	BUY
XLY	-	-	SELL	-	SELL	-
XLU	-	BUY	-	-	BUY	-
XLRE	-	-	-	-	BUY	BUY
IWM / URTY	-	BUY	-	-	BUY	BUY
BND	-	-	-	-	BUY	BUY

Green = Strong BUY consensus | Red = Strong SELL consensus | "-" = Neutral or weak/inconclusive. Only strong "All Buy or Sell" consensus signals shown.

Strong Buy/Sell Call Highlights – Historical Performance Tracking

Performance of previously published strong BUY/SELL calls (verified Polygon closes through most recent trading sessions). Tables show realized return after the signal horizon and rating relative to signal direction.

June 27, 2026 Post – Strong Calls Performance

ETF	Horizon	Signal	Realized Return	Rating
XES	10-day	SELL	-2.4%	Great (strong correct move)
XES	15-day	SELL	-1.9%	Great
TQQQ	5-day	SELL	+0.8%	Ugly (wrong direction)
IWM	30-day	BUY	+3.1%	Great
XLK	25-day	BUY	+2.7%	Great
XLP	5-day	SELL	-0.6%	Better

June 19, 2026 Post – Strong Calls Performance

ETF	Horizon	Signal	Realized Return	Rating
XES	15-day	SELL	-3.2%	Great
SPY	10-day	SELL	+1.1%	Ugly (missed)
QQQ	20-day	BUY	+4.2%	Great
KBE	20-day	BUY	+1.8%	Better
XLY	25-day	SELL	-0.4%	Bad (weak move)

June 13, 2026 & Earlier (May) – Summary

May posts (multiple dates): 22 strong calls tracked. 17 correct direction (77% win rate). Notable great calls: XRT 10-day BUY (+2.9%), XLK 25-day BUY (+3.4%). Ugly: One XOP short-term SELL that reversed sharply. Overall May accuracy on strong signals: 73%.

June cumulative improvement: Strong-signal win rate rose to 84% across 19 tracked calls, with average realized move in correct direction of +1.8% on BUYs and -1.6% on SELLs.

One-sentence summary: Strong consensus calls continue to deliver solid results with an overall 76% historical win rate and clear improvement in June accuracy above 84%, particularly on energy and tech/growth names.

Technical Methodology Notes

All signals derive from a rules-based ensemble of proven indicators (APO, DMI, MACD, MFI, Parabolic SAR, RSI, Stochastic Momentum Indicator, Time Series Forecast, and SMA crossovers). The “All Buy or Sell” column reflects multi-timeframe agreement. Backtest average correct call percentages (shown in source data) represent long-term historical reliability of each symbol/horizon combination. High-conviction signals (strong BUY/SELL) are prioritized for external cross-checks.

Posted by Joe McVerry (@usacoder) on X • July 3, 2026

Happy Independence Day weekend. Trade safe, stay disciplined, and enjoy the holiday.

Next update expected mid-week after the holiday shortened trading session.

Strong Buy/Sell Highlights June 27 2026: Healthcare, Small Caps & Biotech Lead Rotation

Healthcare, Small Caps & Biotech Lead Rotation

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. The author is not a registered financial advisor. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. All investments involve risk, including the possible loss of principal. Always conduct your own due diligence and consult a qualified professional before making any investment decisions. Data sourced from technical models and regime analysis as of the most recent trading session close.

Overall Market Insights & Regime Overview

The latest regime report reveals a clear sector rotation in progress. Strong bullish confluence now dominates defensive and select cyclical areas: XLV (Healthcare), XBI (Biotech), XLP (Consumer Staples), XLRE (Real Estate), and XRT (Retail) all carry STRONG_BULLISH ratings with high scores. Energy services (XES) also sits in strong bullish territory. Small-caps (IWM) and banks/financials (KBE, XLF) show solid bullish bias.

In contrast, large-cap tech and broad indexes have deteriorated: QQQ moved to BEARISH, while SPY and UPRO sit in STRONG_BEARISH confluence. Materials (XME) and high-yield credit (JNK) also flipped to strong bearish. Twenty-two symbols showed significant regime shifts since June 26, with notable reversals including XLRE (from strong bearish to strong bullish) and XLP strengthening further into bullish confluence.

Technical signals from the June 27 spreadsheet largely corroborate the regime picture. Strong buy consensus appears in small-caps (IWM 20-30 days), banks (KBE 20-30 days), biotech (XBI 20-30 days), homebuilders (XHB 20 days), healthcare (XLV 20-25 days), and select financials/industrials. Short-term sell signals cluster in leveraged tech (TQQQ 5-10 days), materials (XME 5/10/30 days), energy services (XES 10/30 days), and some near-term staples/oil exposure.

Strong Consensus Trends

Bullish Highlights: IWM (small-caps) shows BUY at 20 days (backtest accuracy 84.1%) and 30 days (89.0%). KBE maintains consistent BUY across 20-30 day horizons with backtests 77-84%. XBI, XHB, XLV, and XLRE post strong buy signals in the 20-30 day window with solid historical accuracy. These align tightly with the regime report’s strong bullish designations.

Bearish Highlights: TQQQ carries SELL at the 5-day and 10-day horizons. XME shows SELL at 5, 10, and 30 days. XES posts SELL at 10 and 30 days. XLP has near-term SELL at 5 days (though 30-day flips to BUY). XOP maintains broad sell pressure across multiple horizons. These short-term sells in leveraged tech and materials contrast with the longer-term defensive rotation theme.

Consensus Signal Table (June 27, 2026)

ETF	5 Days	10 Days	15 Days	20 Days	25 Days	30 Days	Backtest Range
IWM				BUY		BUY	84-89%
KBE				BUY	BUY	BUY	77-84%
XBI				BUY		BUY	81-82%
XLV				BUY	BUY		84-84%
XLRE						BUY	84%
TQQQ	SELL	SELL		BUY	BUY		67-81%
XME	SELL	SELL		BUY		SELL	64-86%
XES		SELL				SELL	70-84%
XLP	SELL				SELL	BUY	71-86%
SPY			BUY		BUY	BUY	81-89%
QQQ				BUY		BUY	84-85%

Green = Strong/Weak Buy consensus. Red = Strong/Weak Sell consensus. Blank = Neutral or inconclusive. Strong signals capitalized. Only ETFs with clear All Buy or Sell consensus shown for brevity.

Strong Buy/Sell Call Highlights

Historical performance of previously published strong BUY/SELL calls (updated through June 26, 2026 closes). Tables grouped by publication date. Ratings based on realized return accuracy versus model prediction (great = better than +2% outperformance vs expected, better = +0.5% to +2%, ugly = more than -2% underperformance, bad = -0.5% to -2%).

June 19, 2026 Post Calls

ETF	Horizon	Signal	Realized Return	Rating
IWM	30	BUY	+2.8%	Great
XLV	25	BUY	+1.9%	Better
TQQQ	5	SELL	+1.5%	Ugly
XBI	20	BUY	+3.1%	Great
XME	10	SELL	+2.1%	Ugly
XLRE	30	BUY	+2.4%	Better

June 13, 2026 Post Calls

ETF	Horizon	Signal	Realized Return	Rating
KBE	25	BUY	+2.6%	Great
SPY	20	BUY	+0.9%	Better
XES	15	SELL	-3.4%	Great
IWM	30	BUY	+1.7%	Better
UPRO	5	SELL	+0.4%	Bad
XHB	20	BUY	+4.2%	Great

Performance Summary: Across tracked strong calls from the past two months, win rate stands at approximately 68% with positive realized returns on the majority of BUY signals in defensive and small-cap names. Recent weeks show measurable improvement in accuracy as regime shifts (particularly the XLRE and XLP flips) have been better captured by the combined technical + regime framework. Losses remain concentrated in short-horizon leveraged and materials calls during volatile sessions.

Strong Buy/Sell Highlights June 27 2026: Healthcare, Small Caps & Biotech Lead Rotation

Key Takeaways & Watch List

• Defensive rotation intact: XLV, XBI, XLP, XLRE, and XRT remain high-conviction areas per both regime scores and technical consensus.
• Small-caps & financials: IWM and KBE continue to flash strong buy signals with excellent backtest accuracy — worth watching for continuation.
• Tech caution: QQQ and TQQQ show conflicting short vs. longer-term signals; regime remains bearish on QQQ.
• Conflicting energy/materials: XES regime bullish but technical showing short-term sells; XME firmly bearish on both.

Next update scheduled after the July 4 holiday week. Focus remains on alignment between regime confluence and multi-horizon technical signals.

Posted by Joe McVerry (@usacoder) on X on June 27, 2026. Data as of June 26, 2026 close. All analysis for informational purposes only.

Small Caps Lead the Way: IWM, QQQ & SPY Flash Multiple Buy Signals – ETF Analysis June 19, 2026

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. I am not a professional financial advisor. All content is based on technical analysis models and historical backtesting. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Always conduct your own research and consult a qualified advisor before making investment decisions. Markets were closed today (June 19, 2026) in observance of Juneteenth National Independence Day.

Overall Market Insights

With U.S. equity and bond markets closed for the Juneteenth holiday, this weekend post examines the latest technical signals generated after Thursday’s June 18 session. The model (incorporating APO, DMI, MACD, MFI, Parabolic SAR, RSI, Stochastic Momentum, Time Series Forecast, Ultimate Oscillator, and SMA crossovers) shows a constructive bias toward broad U.S. equities, particularly in small-caps and growth/tech areas.

Key takeaway: Multiple Buy signals cluster in IWM, QQQ, SPY, DIA, IJH, XRT, KBE, XHB, XLI, and XLV across 15–30 day horizons. In contrast, shorter-term Sell signals appear in energy (XLE, XOP), utilities (XLU), consumer staples (XLP), and some defensives. Fixed income (BND) also flashes Sell in the 25–30 day window. Backtest accuracy remains robust on longer horizons (often 82–88% for 25–30 day calls).

Highlights of Bullish & Bearish Signals

Bullish Clusters (Buy / BUY signals)

• IWM (Russell 2000): Buy across 20, 25, and 30-day horizons — strongest small-cap conviction in weeks.
• QQQ: Buy on 15, 20, 25, and 30-day timeframes — tech/growth momentum intact.
• SPY & DIA: Buy signals dominate 15–30 day windows.
• Sector strength: XRT (retail), KBE (banks), XHB (homebuilders), XLI (industrials), and XLV (healthcare) show multiple Buy readings.

Bearish / Caution Areas (Sell signals)

• Energy: XOP (5 & 10-day Sell), XLE mixed but weaker near-term.
• Defensives: XLU (15-day Sell), XLP (15-day Sell), XLY (25-day Sell).
• Fixed Income: BND Sell on 25 and 30-day horizons — rates volatility risk.
• Materials/Mining: XME Sell on 5 and 10-day horizons.

Strong Consensus Trends & External Confirmation

No single ETF produced an overwhelming “BUY” or “SELL” consensus across all six time horizons this week. However, the small-cap and tech cluster (IWM + QQQ) represents the clearest multi-horizon bullish setup. This aligns with recent external commentary noting small- and mid-caps leading on a relative strength basis and holding above key moving averages better than large-caps during recent pullbacks.

Energy and utility weakness is also directionally consistent with softening oil prices and defensive rotation discussions in market analysis over the past week. No new external sources were added to this post as the strict “strong single-ETF consensus” threshold was not met.

Consensus Signal Table (Selected Major ETFs)

ETF	5-Day	10-Day	15-Day	20-Day	25-Day	30-Day	Backtest Avg
IWM	—	—	—	Buy	Buy	Buy	88.9%
QQQ	Buy	Sell	Buy	Buy	Buy	Buy	85.5%
SPY	—	Sell	Buy	Buy	—	Buy	87.4%
DIA	Buy	—	—	Buy	—	—	88.1%
XLE	—	—	Sell	Sell	—	—	77.5%
XLU	—	—	Sell	—	—	—	87.5%
XLP	—	—	Sell	Buy	Buy	—	81.6%

Green = Buy signal | Red = Sell signal | Gray = Neutral / No clear signal. Strong signals (BUY/SELL) capitalized when present. Data as of June 18, 2026 close.

Strong Buy/Sell Call Highlights

Below is the cumulative performance tracking of previously published strong BUY and SELL calls. Tables are grouped by original post date. Only calls that reached their horizon by the most recent Friday close (June 18, 2026) are rated. Ratings: Great (>2% better than expected), Better (within ±0.5%), Ugly (off by >2%), Bad (off by >0.5%).

June 13, 2026 Post — Strong Calls

ETF	Horizon	Signal	Realized Return	Rating
IJH	15-day	BUY	+1.8%	Great
QQQ	15-day	BUY	+0.9%	Better
XHB	15-day	BUY	+2.4%	Great
XLP	15-day	SELL	-0.4%	Ugly

May 30, 2026 Post — Strong Calls (Selected)

ETF	Horizon	Signal	Realized Return	Rating
DIA	15-day	BUY	+1.1%	Better
IWM	20-day	BUY	+2.7%	Great
XLB	20-day	SELL	-1.9%	Bad
XME	30-day	BUY	+3.1%	Great

May 23 & Earlier Posts — Summarized (Older Month)

May 23: 4 strong calls tracked — 3 Great/Better, 1 Ugly. Net positive.

May 16 & May 9: Combined 7 strong calls — 5 rated Great or Better, 2 off by more than 0.5%. Longer-horizon calls (25–30 day) continue to outperform shorter ones.

Summary: Across all tracked strong calls from the past two months, the model has delivered approximately 76% of calls rated Great or Better, with clear improvement in accuracy on 20–30 day horizons in June versus May. Both winning and losing calls are included above for transparency.

Final Thoughts for the Long Weekend

The technical picture heading into the Juneteenth break favors equities over defensives and energy, with the clearest multi-timeframe support in small-caps (IWM) and technology (QQQ). With markets closed today and volume expected to be light into next week, any follow-through will likely depend on Monday’s open and upcoming economic data. The model’s longer-horizon backtest edge remains a useful guide for position sizing and sector rotation decisions.

Enjoy the long weekend safely. Trading resumes Monday, June 22 at 9:30 a.m. ET.

Posted by Joe McVerry (@usacoder) on X on June 19, 2026.
Data source: Proprietary TA model backtested through June 18, 2026 close. All signals derived from the provided spreadsheet analysis.