Saturday, October 17, 2026

Tech Selloff Hits Indexes While Energy Locks Multi-Horizon BUYs: ETF Technical Signals After the October 16 Close

Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. I am not a professional financial advisor. Technical signals can fail. Do your own work before you risk capital.

Tech Selloff Hits Indexes While Energy Locks Multi-Horizon BUYs: ETF Technical Signals After the October 16 Close

Published Saturday, October 17, 2026

SPY closed Friday at 763.25, down 1.97% from the October 9 close of 778.57 and 1.1% on the day. The S&P 500 finished at 7,659.44, down 1.09%. QQQ closed 709.80, down 2.50% on the day and sharply lower on the week. The Nasdaq Composite fell 2.15% to 26,140.03. The Dow closed at 52,002.41, down 0.34%. The Russell 2000 closed at 2,721.37, down 1.66%. XLE closed 68.24, up 2.52% on the day and higher on the week. XBI closed 144.32, down 3.64%. GLD closed near 382. The session featured a tech tantrum on AI valuation and spending fears, while Brent touched $110 on Middle East supply risks and Iranian strikes near Hormuz.

Overall Market Insights

The models are built from three families labeled A, P, and N on the sheet. Those families take the standard stack: Absolute Price Oscillator, DMI, MACD, Money Flow Index, Parabolic SAR, RSI, SMA crossovers, the Stochastic Momentum Indicator, Time Series Forecast, and the Ultimate Oscillator. A capital BUY or SELL means all three families agreed. A lowercase buy or sell is an All-column print without that lock. No print means the models did not agree enough to call the horizon.

Large-cap tech and the S&P carry intermediate-to-long horizon buys despite Friday’s drop. QQQ shows three-model BUY at 15, 20, and 30 days. SPY shows three-model BUY at 25 and 30 days. XLK shows three-model BUY at 20 and 25 days. Energy is the clean multi-horizon long. XLE shows three-model BUY at 15, 20, and 25 days. XOP shows three-model BUY at 30 days. The shorts are specific: housing (XHB) locks SELL across 5, 20, 25, and 30 days. Metals (XME) locks SELL at 5 and 30 days. Gold (GLD) locks SELL at 5 and 15 days. Biotech (XBI) locks SELL at 25 days. Banks (KBE) locks SELL at 20 and 30 days. DIA locks SELL from 15 through 30 days. The models see the Friday tech washout as a dip to buy on the longer windows, not a break of the intermediate bid, while energy benefits from the oil spike and selective economically sensitive groups stay under pressure.

Highlights of Bullish and Bearish Signals

Bullish clusters: QQQ (15, 20, 30 BUY), SPY (25, 30 BUY), XLK (20, 25 BUY), XLE (15, 20, 25 BUY), XOP (30 BUY), UPRO (20, 30 BUY), XRT (15 BUY), XHS (25 BUY).

Bearish clusters: XHB SELL at 5, 20, 25, and 30 days. XME SELL at 5 and 30 days. GLD SELL at 5 and 15 days. XBI SELL at 25 days. KBE SELL at 20 and 30 days. DIA SELL at 15, 20, 25, and 30 days. XES SELL at 15 and 30 days. XLF SELL at 10 and 25 days. XLV SELL at 15 and 30 days. BND Sell at 20 and 25 days. IJH SELL at 30 days. IWM Sell at 15 and 25 days. XLB SELL at 10 days. XLI SELL at 30 days. XLP SELL at 25 days. URTY Sell at 15 days.

Comparison to the October 10 Sheet

Last week large-cap indexes locked short- and intermediate-horizon BUYs (SPY 5 and 20, QQQ 25 and 30, TQQQ 5 and 10). Those short-horizon prints are now mature or expiring into a down week. The new sheet keeps the longer QQQ and SPY buys and adds a 15- and 20-day QQQ BUY after the selloff. Energy flipped from a single 30-day BUY on XLE to a 15- to 25-day BUY stack. XBI kept the longer SELLs but dropped the 5-day lock. XHB and XME retained multi-horizon SELLs. The front of the curve is no longer a broad index short. It is a selective short on housing, metals, gold, and banks against intermediate longs in tech and energy.

Consensus Signal Table

Signals are taken from the All Buy or Sell column. Capital letters mark full three-family agreement. Lowercase marks a print without that lock. Blank means no call. Green = buy. Red = sell.

ETF	5	10	15	20	25	30
BND				sell	sell
DIA			sell	sell	sell	sell
GLD	SELL		sell
IJH						SELL
IWM			sell		sell
JNK
KBE				SELL		SELL
QQQ			BUY	BUY		BUY
SPY					BUY	BUY
TQQQ
UPRO				BUY		BUY
URTY			sell
XBI					SELL
XES			SELL			sell
XHB	SELL			SELL	sell	SELL
XHS					BUY
XLB		SELL
XLE			BUY	BUY	BUY
XLF		SELL			sell
XLI						sell
XLK				BUY	BUY
XLP					sell
XLRE
XLU
XLV			sell			sell
XLY
XME	SELL					SELL
XOP						BUY
XRT			BUY

Green = buy/BUY, red = sell/SELL. Capital letters are three-family locks. Indicators behind the sheet include APO, DMI, MACD, MFI, Parabolic SAR, RSI, SMA crossovers, the Stochastic Momentum Indicator, Time Series Forecast, and the Ultimate Oscillator. Back-test hit rates on this file run from about 0.59 on the 5-day GLD SELL to 0.90 on the 25-day SPY BUY. Those are historical hit rates on the model, not promises.

Strong Consensus Trends & External Confirmation

XLE 15-, 20-, and 25-day BUY. Reuters (Oct. 16) reported Brent touched $110 and settled at $109.86, up 3.7%, on Middle East tensions and Iranian attacks near Hormuz, with WTI at $101.41. That supply premium agrees with the multi-horizon energy long. XLE closed at a 52-week high of 68.24. The models were already positioning long before the Friday spike fully priced.

QQQ 15-, 20-, and 30-day BUY / XLK 20- and 25-day BUY. TipRanks / Markets Insider (Oct. 16) logged the Friday tech selloff on AI overspending and valuation fears, with QQQ down 2.50% and SPY down 1.11%. The models treat the drop as a short-horizon event and keep the intermediate bid. That is a dip-to-buy reading, not a break of the longer structure.

XBI 25-day SELL. BioPharma Dive (Oct. 15) documented the recent pullback from the August high near 170 on disappointing readouts, rising rates, and slower public M&A. XBI closed 144.32, down 3.64% on Friday. The 25-day SELL agrees with the ongoing pressure. High short interest remains a squeeze risk if a catalyst appears.

GLD 5- and 15-day SELL. FX.co (Oct. 15) flagged a sell below $4,170 on the gold chart with targets lower if the downtrend channel holds. GLD closed near 382 after a soft week. The short-horizon model SELL matches the near-term technical pressure even if longer structure is mixed.

XHB multi-horizon SELL and KBE 20- and 30-day SELL. Housing and regional banks remain under the rate-sensitive short umbrella. The sheet does not invent a broad financials short; XLF is only a 10-day SELL against no long-horizon buy. Treat the bank and housing calls as specific tape reads.

Strong Buy/Sell Call Highlights

Every All-column buy or sell published in prior weekly files is scored with session closes. Signal date is the last U.S. equity session before the CSV date. Horizon is trading days, not calendar days. Realized return is the price move in the direction of the call (positive = the call made money). Ratings: great = more than +2.0%; better = +0.5% to +2.0%; flat = between −0.5% and +0.5%; bad = −0.5% to −2.0%; ugly = worse than −2.0%.

Older files (summarized)

June 13 post (signal June 12): 57 matured. Great 13 / better 16 / flat 8 / bad 6 / ugly 14. Directed win rate: 59.2%.

July 3 post (signal July 2): 41 matured. Great 12 / better 9 / flat 3 / bad 8 / ugly 9. Directed win rate: 55.3%.

July 11 post (signal July 10): 43 matured. Great 11 / better 10 / flat 4 / bad 10 / ugly 8. Directed win rate: 53.8%.

July 18 post (signal July 17): 58 matured. Great 17 / better 12 / flat 7 / bad 9 / ugly 13. Directed win rate: 56.9%.

July 25 post (signal July 24): 56 matured. Great 17 / better 9 / flat 9 / bad 6 / ugly 15. Directed win rate: 55.3%.

August 1 post (signal July 31): 50 matured. Great 9 / better 6 / flat 9 / bad 7 / ugly 19. Directed win rate: 36.6% on decided trades.

August 8 post (signal August 7): 40 matured. Great 13 / better 12 / flat 4 / bad 7 / ugly 4. Directed win rate: 69.4%.

August 15 through September 5 posts: directed rates stayed in the mid-50s on decided trades with outliers in energy services and leveraged tech.

Post dated September 19, 2026 (signal close September 18)

Selected matured prints. 5-day scored earlier; 10-day exit October 2.

ETF	Horizon	Signal	Realized Return	Rating
GLD	10	SELL	+5.24%	great
XLP	10	sell	+2.74%	great
JNK	10	SELL	+2.28%	great
XOP	10	buy	−2.98%	ugly
TQQQ	10	SELL	−11.52%	ugly

Post dated September 12, 2026 (signal close September 11)

Selected 15-day matured prints (exit October 2).

ETF	Horizon	Signal	Realized Return	Rating
JNK	15	SELL	+2.35%	great
BND	15	sell	+1.80%	better
SPY	15	buy	+0.70%	better
XLE	15	BUY	−3.56%	ugly
XES	15	BUY	−10.44%	ugly

XES 15-day BUY was the worst print of that cohort. Verified path: XES 121.89 → 109.16.

Post dated September 26, 2026 (signal close September 25)

5-day prints matured by October 2.

ETF	Horizon	Signal	Realized Return	Rating
GLD	5	SELL	+3.37%	great
XME	5	SELL	+2.39%	great
TQQQ	5	BUY	+1.77%	better
QQQ	5	BUY	+0.68%	better
XOP	5	SELL	−1.89%	bad

Post dated October 3, 2026 (signal close October 2)

5-day prints matured by the October 9 close. Preliminary results were mixed with no extreme outliers beyond the XME flat-to-bad print.

ETF	Horizon	Signal	Realized Return	Rating
XME	5	SELL	≈ −0.6%	bad
XHB / XHS / XRT	5	SELLs	mixed	flat / bad
XLP	5	BUY	mixed	flat

Post dated October 10, 2026 (signal close October 9)

Five-day prints are newly mature as of the October 16 close. Longer horizons remain open.

ETF	Horizon	Signal	Realized Return	Rating
XBI	5	SELL	+6.1%	great
IWM	5	SELL	+1.7%	better
XME	5	SELL	positive	better
SPY	5	BUY	−1.97%	bad
TQQQ	5	BUY	levered loss	ugly
IJH	5	BUY	mixed	flat
XRT	5	BUY	mixed	flat

Verified where available: SPY 778.57 → 763.25 (−1.97%). XBI 153.77 → 144.32 (−6.1%, SELL paid). Russell 2000 week −1.7% range supports the IWM 5-day SELL. TQQQ followed the QQQ drop with leverage.

Through the October 3 post the directed win rate since the June 13 file stood at 53.5% (200 wins, 174 losses, 60 flats on 434 matured calls). Adding the October 10 5-day cohort (XBI SELL great, IWM SELL better, SPY BUY bad, TQQQ BUY ugly) keeps the long-run rate near that level. Recent months remain better than the August 1 trough. The large ugly losses stay concentrated in leveraged tech and energy-services names. Energy has carried the longer sleeve when the calls have aligned with the oil tape.

Nothing in this post is a recommendation to buy or sell any security.

— Stock Trends with Joe

Saturday, October 10, 2026

Broad Market BUYs Lock In While Biotech and Metals Stay Short: ETF Technical Signals After the October 9 Close

Published Saturday, October 10, 2026

SPY closed Friday at 778.57, up 1.16% from last Friday’s 769.64. The S&P 500 finished at 7,811.54, a 0.6% Friday gain and 1.2% weekly advance. The Dow rose 0.8% on the day to 51,654.95 and 0.9% on the week. The Nasdaq Composite gained 0.6% to 27,366.17 and 0.6% for the week. The Russell 2000 rose 0.5% Friday to 2,806.98 but fell 0.9% on the week. QQQ closed 751.27. TQQQ closed 81.28. GLD closed 384.58, up from 380.14. The week closed with focus shifting to the start of third-quarter earnings and upcoming inflation data, after the prior week’s soft September jobs report had already lowered odds of an October Fed hike.

Overall Market Insights

Large-cap indexes locked in strong buys. SPY shows three-model BUY at 5 and 20 days. QQQ shows three-model BUY at 25 and 30 days. TQQQ shows three-model BUY at 5 and 10 days. UPRO shows three-model BUY at 20 days. The broad market path is higher over those windows. Small caps and select sectors are the opposite. IWM shows a three-model SELL at 5 days. XBI shows three-model SELL at 5, 20, 25, and 30 days. XME shows three-model SELL at 5 and 10 days. The models see continued pressure in biotech, metals and mining, housing, and some financials while the large-cap complex is still constructive.

Highlights of Bullish and Bearish Signals

Large-cap and leveraged tech BUYs. SPY, QQQ, and TQQQ carry the strongest multi-horizon buy consensus. The 5-day SPY and TQQQ locks are new or reinforced. The longer QQQ locks at 25 and 30 days say the models still expect the Nasdaq-100 path to stay above the current close. UPRO’s 20-day BUY adds the 3x S&P 500 confirmation.

Biotech remains a strong short. XBI printed three-model SELL across four horizons. The fund closed the week at 153.77 after a 3% Friday bounce. The multi-horizon agreement says the models do not see that bounce holding. High short interest (over 100% of float as of late September) is consistent with the call but also raises squeeze risk if the bounce continues.

Metals and mining still short. XME shows three-model SELL at 5 and 10 days. The fund closed 106.35. Last week’s 5-day SELL is now mature. The new locks say the models expect more downside or at least no sustained reclaim over the next one to two weeks.

Other sector shorts. XHB (housing) is SELL at 20 and 30 days. XES (energy services) is SELL at 15 days. KBE (banks) is SELL at 20 and 30 days. XLI is SELL at 10 days. XLRE and XLV carry longer SELLs. XOP is SELL at 10 days but has a weak buy at 30. Retail (XRT) is mixed: BUY at 5 days and SELL at 10 days.

Consensus Signal Table

Signals are taken from the All Buy or Sell column. Capital letters mark full three-family agreement. Lowercase marks a print without that lock. Blank means no call.

ETF	5	10	15	20	25	30
BND					sell
DIA
GLD			sell
IJH	BUY					sell
IWM	SELL		sell		sell
JNK		SELL		sell
KBE				SELL		SELL
QQQ					BUY	BUY
SPY	BUY			BUY		buy
TQQQ	BUY	BUY			buy
UPRO				BUY	buy
URTY			sell
XBI	SELL			SELL	SELL	SELL
XES			SELL			sell
XHB				SELL	sell	SELL
XHS	SELL
XLE						BUY
XLI		SELL		sell
XLK				buy	buy
XLP		sell				sell
XLRE						SELL
XLV					sell	SELL
XME	SELL	SELL				sell
XOP		SELL				buy
XRT	BUY	SELL

Green = buy/BUY, red = sell/SELL. Capital letters indicate all 3 calls agree.

Strong Consensus Trends & External Confirmation

XBI 5-, 20-, 25-, and 30-day SELL. The multi-horizon short is the clearest non-index call on the sheet. One options-flow note from October 9 described put-dollar dominance in the Delta 40-60 band and projected a $143–$158 range with a bearish bias. That direction matches the model. High short interest (reported above 100% of float as of the September 30 settlement) is the counter-risk; a continued bounce could force covering.

XBI Trading Analysis – 10/09/2026 — The note flagged bearish options sentiment and technicals below key moving averages, consistent with the multi-horizon SELL.

TQQQ 5- and 10-day BUY. The leveraged Nasdaq-100 fund carries fresh short-horizon locks. A Seeking Alpha piece published October 8 upgraded TQQQ to Buy ahead of earnings season, arguing the setup favors adding exposure into a potential strong Q4. The direction agrees with the model locks.

TQQQ: The Case For Going All-In Ahead Of Q3 Earnings Season — The author upgraded the fund to Buy on the expectation of a strong fourth quarter and favorable midterm-cycle dynamics.

XME 5- and 10-day SELL. No fresh metals piece this week reversed the short. The fund closed the week higher than the prior Friday, so the prior 5-day SELL did not pay. The new locks keep the same directional call.

Strong Buy/Sell Call Highlights

Older files (summarized)

June 13 post (signal June 12): 57 matured. Great 13 / better 16 / flat 8 / bad 6 / ugly 14. Directed win rate (great+better vs bad+ugly): 59.2%.

July 3 post (signal July 2): 41 matured. Great 12 / better 9 / flat 3 / bad 8 / ugly 9. Directed win rate: 55.3%.

July 11 post (signal July 10): 43 matured. Great 11 / better 10 / flat 4 / bad 10 / ugly 8. Directed win rate: 53.8%.

July 18 post (signal July 17): 58 matured. Great 17 / better 12 / flat 7 / bad 9 / ugly 13. Directed win rate: 56.9%.

July 25 post (signal July 24): 56 matured. Great 17 / better 9 / flat 9 / bad 6 / ugly 15. Directed win rate: 55.3%.

August 1 post (signal July 31): 50 matured. Great 9 / better 6 / flat 9 / bad 7 / ugly 19. Directed win rate: 36.6% on decided trades.

August 8 post (signal August 7): 40 matured. Great 13 / better 12 / flat 4 / bad 7 / ugly 4. Directed win rate: 69.4%.

August 15 through September 19 posts (combined): directed win rate held in the mid-50s on decided trades with several ugly outliers in energy services and leveraged tech.

September 25 post (signal September 24): 5-day matured — GLD SELL +3.37% great; XME SELL +2.39% great; TQQQ BUY +1.77% better; QQQ BUY +0.68% better; XOP SELL −1.89% bad.

September 18 post (signal September 17): 10-day matured — GLD SELL +5.24% great; XLP sell +2.74% great; JNK SELL +2.28% great; XOP buy −2.98% ugly; TQQQ SELL −11.52% ugly.

September 11 post (signal September 10): 15-day worst — XES BUY −10.44% ugly.

October 3 post (signal October 2): 5-day calls matured by the October 9 close. XME SELL realized approximately −0.6% (price rose from 105.74 to 106.35) — flat to bad. Other 5-day SELLs (XHB, XHS, XRT) and the XLP BUY will be scored once full adjusted closes are confirmed; preliminary price action shows mixed results with no extreme outliers.

Cumulative through the October 3 post

53.5% directed since June 13 (200 wins, 174 losses, 60 flats on 434 matured). The October 3 5-day cohort adds a small number of additional matured calls that do not materially change the long-run rate. Recent months continue to show better than the August 1 trough, with the large ugly losses concentrated in a few leveraged and energy-service names.

The models continue to favor the large-cap complex over the next several weeks while keeping multi-horizon shorts on biotech and metals. Those sector shorts have paid in prior windows but have not paid every time; the current sheet does not reverse them.

That is the sheet after the October 9 close. The next file will show whether the large-cap BUY locks hold and whether the XBI and XME shorts begin to work.

Saturday, October 3, 2026

Gold Flips to a 10-Day BUY After a Paid Short: ETF Technical Signals for October 3, 2026

Gold Flips to a 10-Day BUY After a Paid Short: ETF Technical Signals After the October 2 Close

Published Saturday, October 3, 2026

SPY closed Friday at 769.64, down 0.22% from last Friday’s 771.35. The S&P 500 finished at 7,722.72, a 0.27% weekly loss and a 0.73% Friday bounce. The Dow fell 1.26% on the week to 51,176.96. The Nasdaq Composite rose 0.45% to 27,190.86. Friday’s jobs report did the work: nonfarm payrolls rose 29,000 against a 90,000 estimate, unemployment ticked up to 4.2% from 4.1%, and the odds of an October Fed hike fell to 22.7% from 64.2% a week earlier. WTI settled near $88.89, down 4.3% Friday and about 3.8% on the week from $92.41. GLD fell 3.37% to 380.14. Last week’s 5-day GLD SELL paid. The new sheet flipped gold to a 10-day BUY.

Overall Market Insights

Technology kept the week, but the stack got shorter. QQQ closed 749.58, up 0.68% from 744.50. XLK closed 199.81, up 1.80% from 196.27. TQQQ closed 81.01, up 1.77% from 79.60. Last week QQQ was a three-model BUY at 5, 15, 20, 25, and 30 days. This week the 5-day and 20-day locks are gone. What is left is a three-model BUY at 15 and 25 days and a two-model buy at 30. XLK is the cleaner tech long: three-model BUY at 20 and 25 days, two-model buy at 30. TQQQ moved from a 5-day BUY to a 25-day BUY only. Do not roll last week’s 5-day TQQQ long into this file. That clock closed. It paid +1.77%, a better, not a great.

Gold is the clean flip, and it fights the tape. GLD was a three-model 5-day SELL last week. That short made 3.37% as the fund fell from 393.41 to 380.14. Spot gold finished the week near $4,137, down more than 3%, and failed to hold $4,200 after the jobs miss. The new file prints a three-model BUY at 10 days and nothing else. That is a mean-reversion long after a paid short, not a trend follow. One clock. Do not treat it as a repeal of the short that just worked.

Metals did not flip. XME is a three-model SELL at 5, 15, and 30 days. The fund fell 2.39% this week to 105.74. Last week’s 5-day XME SELL closed great at +2.39%. The new 5-day short is the same direction on a lower price. The 15- and 30-day shorts are the same call on a longer clock.

Energy is split again, and the split is not the same as last week. Last week XOP was a 5- and 10-day SELL against a 20-day BUY. The 5-day short lost: XOP rose 1.89% to 184.93, a bad. XLE, which was a 10-day BUY last week, rose 1.26% to 62.82 even as crude fell. The new file shorts XOP at 10 days only and buys it at 30. XLE is a three-model BUY at 25 days only. XES is the clean energy short: three-model SELL at 10 and 15 days, and a two-model sell at 30. XES fell 3.03% to 109.16. Services followed crude. Producers did not.

The new defensive long is staples, and the price has not confirmed it. XLP is a three-model BUY at 5 and 10 days. The fund fell 1.86% this week to 80.53. Consumer sentiment finished September at 48.1, a four-month low. That is the story the model is reading. It is not the close.

Consumer cyclicals are short in the front. XRT is a three-model SELL at 5 and 10 days. The fund was flat, 82.47 to 82.63. XHB is a three-model SELL at 5 and 30 days and a two-model sell at 25. XHB fell 1.65% to 96.70. The 30-year mortgage touched 7.5% on September 28. Homebuilders are the rate short. Retail is the demand short. They are not the same trade, but they point the same way this week.

Healthcare flipped the other way from last week’s XHS longs. Last week XHS was a 20- and 30-day BUY and XLV was a 15- and 20-day SELL. XLV fell 2.65% this week to 166.18, so the open 15- and 20-day shorts are still with the tape. The new file deletes those XLV shorts and prints a 30-day BUY only. XHS flipped to a three-model SELL at 5 and 20 days. The fund fell 1.08% to 133.36. Services are short in the front. The broad healthcare long is a 30-day clock only.

Size is split. DIA fell 1.23% to 511.10 and still prints three-model BUYs at 15 and 25 days. That is a bounce call after a down week, not a momentum call. IWM is a three-model SELL at 15 days and a two-model sell at 25. The fund was nearly flat, 281.97 to 281.52. Friday’s Russell 2000 bounce of 0.94% does not close that 15-day short. IJH is a two-model sell at 25 and 30 and rose 0.55% on the week. Mid-caps are not confirming the small-cap short on the weekly close.

Credit and banks stayed short. JNK is a three-model SELL at 10 days and fell 1.30% to 92.39. KBE is a three-model SELL at 20 and 30 days and fell 1.53% to 64.36. XLF fell 2.46% to 53.49 and printed nothing. BND is a two-model sell at 25 days and fell 0.98% to 69.94. SPY printed nothing this week. Last week’s 15-day SPY SELL and 30-day buy are gone from the All column.

Highlights of Bullish and Bearish Signals

Bullish clusters: XLK (20, 25 BUY; 30 buy), QQQ (15, 25 BUY; 30 buy), TQQQ (25 BUY), DIA (15, 25 BUY), XLP (5, 10 BUY), GLD (10 BUY), XLE (25 BUY), XOP (30 BUY), XLV (30 BUY).

Bearish clusters: XME SELL at 5, 15, and 30 days. XES SELL at 10 and 15, sell at 30. XHB SELL at 5 and 30, sell at 25. XHS SELL at 5 and 20. XRT SELL at 5 and 10. XOP SELL at 10 against a 30-day BUY. KBE SELL at 20 and 30. JNK SELL at 10. IWM SELL at 15, sell at 25. IJH sell at 25 and 30. XLI sell at 15. BND sell at 25. UPRO sell at 25.

Comparison to the September 26 Sheet

Last week’s 5-day column was long QQQ and TQQQ and short GLD, XME, and XOP. Four of the five paid. GLD SELL +3.37%, great. XME SELL +2.39%, great. QQQ BUY +0.68%, better. TQQQ BUY +1.77%, better. XOP SELL −1.89%, bad. The gold and metals shorts were the clean hits. The E&P short was the miss, because XOP rose while crude fell.

The new sheet cut the QQQ stack from five horizons to two full locks, moved TQQQ from 5 days to 25 days, and flipped GLD from a 5-day SELL to a 10-day BUY. It kept XME short and extended that short to 15 and 30 days. It replaced the XOP 5-day SELL with a 10-day SELL and kept a back-end XOP long, now at 30 days instead of 20. It deleted the XLV 15- and 20-day SELLs and the XHS 20- and 30-day BUYs, then put XHS on the short side at 5 and 20. It added XLP as a 5- and 10-day BUY, XRT as a 5- and 10-day SELL, and XHB as a 5-day SELL. SPY left the All column. XLI came back as a 15-day sell only.

The September 17 hike is now more than two weeks in the tape. Friday’s payroll miss cut the odds of a second hike this month. Yields eased off the cycle high, crude gave back another leg, and gold did not catch the bid a weak jobs print usually brings. The models responded by keeping tech long on a shorter curve, buying the staples dip, shorting metals and homebuilders, and fading gold only after the short had already paid.

Consensus Signal Table

Green = buy. Red = sell. Bold capitals = all three model families (A, P, and N) agreed. Lowercase = All-column signal without a full three-way lock. Em dash = no signal. Sheet dated October 3, 2026, scored off the October 2 close.

ETF	5d	10d	15d	20d	25d	30d
BND	—	—	—	—	sell	—
DIA	—	—	BUY	—	BUY	—
GLD	—	BUY	—	—	—	—
IJH	—	—	—	—	sell	sell
IWM	—	—	SELL	—	sell	—
JNK	—	SELL	—	—	—	—
KBE	—	—	—	SELL	—	SELL
QQQ	—	—	BUY	—	BUY	buy
SPY	—	—	—	—	—	—
TQQQ	—	—	—	—	BUY	—
UPRO	—	—	—	—	sell	—
URTY	—	—	—	—	—	—
XBI	—	—	—	—	—	—
XES	—	SELL	SELL	—	—	sell
XHB	SELL	—	—	—	sell	SELL
XHS	SELL	—	—	SELL	—	—
XLB	—	—	—	—	—	—
XLE	—	—	—	—	BUY	—
XLF	—	—	—	—	—	—
XLI	—	—	sell	—	—	—
XLK	—	—	—	BUY	BUY	buy
XLP	BUY	BUY	—	—	—	—
XLRE	—	—	—	—	—	—
XLU	—	—	—	—	—	—
XLV	—	—	—	—	—	BUY
XLY	—	—	—	—	—	—
XME	SELL	—	SELL	—	—	SELL
XOP	—	SELL	—	—	—	BUY
XRT	SELL	SELL	—	—	—	—

Strong Consensus Trends & External Confirmation

XLK 20- and 25-day BUY / QQQ 15- and 25-day BUY / TQQQ 25-day BUY. Reuters, “Equities close higher as softer jobs data quiets rate-hike expectations” (Oct. 2) had the Nasdaq Composite up 1.19% Friday to 27,190.86 and up 0.45% on the week, a fifth weekly gain in six, with Nvidia and Tesla among the biggest S&P boosts. That agrees with keeping large-cap tech long behind 15 days. It does not extend the call to a 5-day TQQQ long. That print is gone. The same piece said the Russell 2000 gained 0.94% Friday, its best day in a month. That disagrees with reading the IWM 15-day SELL as a same-day trade. The small-cap short is a three-week clock. Friday’s bounce does not close it. IWM was −0.16% on the week.

GLD 10-day BUY, against last week’s paid 5-day SELL. Kitco News, “Gold bulls disappointed as weak jobs report fails to spark rally, $4,000 support looms” (Oct. 2) had spot gold near $4,137, down more than 3% on the week, unable to hold $4,200 after the payroll miss. That disagrees with the new 10-day BUY. The jobs report gave gold a policy excuse and the metal sold it. The same tape agrees with the short that just closed: GLD 393.41 to 380.14, +3.37% in the direction of the SELL. The new long is a separate clock. It is early, and the weekly close is against it.

XES 10- and 15-day SELL / XOP 10-day SELL against a 30-day BUY / XLE 25-day BUY. AFP, “Oil prices drop on G7 fuel release, US jobs data boosts stocks” (Oct. 2) had oil down hard Friday after G7 nations agreed to release about 100 million barrels of diesel and crude over four months. WTI was down 2.6% intraday in that report and settled the session near $88.89, off 4.3% on the day and about 3.8% on the week from $92.41. That agrees with the XES shorts. XES fell 3.03% to 109.16. It does not agree with fading XOP on this week’s close. XOP rose 1.89% to 184.93 and XLE rose 1.26% to 62.82 while crude fell. Last week’s 5-day XOP SELL is the scored miss. The 10-day XOP SELL and the 30-day XOP BUY are different clocks. Keep them apart.

XHB 5- and 30-day SELL. Yahoo Finance, “Homebuilding stocks are feeling the bite of higher mortgage rates” (Sept. 28) had the 30-year mortgage touching 7.5% that day, the first print at that level since April 2024, and the S&P 500 Homebuilding Index down 3.2% for September. Lennar and KB Home had already reported slumping revenue. That agrees with the new XHB shorts. The fund closed 96.70, down 1.65% on the week from 98.32. The 5-day short is the front of that rate call. The 30-day short is the same call if mortgage rates stay above 7%.

XHS 5- and 20-day SELL against an XLV 30-day BUY. Zacks, “4 Low-Beta Healthcare Stocks to Buy Amid Fears of Another Rate Hike” (Oct. 2) wants defensive healthcare longs if another hike is still live. That disagrees with the XHS shorts. The week’s tape does not. XLV fell 2.65% to 166.18. XHS fell 1.08% to 133.36. The sheet’s only healthcare long is the 30-day XLV BUY. The front of healthcare services is short. Do not drag XHS onto a defensive-long list because a strategist likes low beta.

XLP 5- and 10-day BUY. Nasdaq, “4 Low-Beta Defensive Stocks to Buy as Consumer Sentiment Hits 4-Month Low” (Sept. 29) cited the University of Michigan sentiment index at a final 48.1 for September, down from 51.7 and a four-month low, and pointed at staples names as the hedge. That agrees with the direction of the new XLP locks. It does not agree with the week’s price. XLP fell 1.86% to 80.53. The model is buying a dip the close has not turned. Sentiment is the reason. The 5-day path is still open.

XME 5-, 15-, and 30-day SELL. No fresh metals piece this week contradicted the short, and the fund did the work itself. XME 108.33 to 105.74 is −2.39%. Last week’s 5-day SELL closed great on that path. The new 5-day SELL is the same call one week later. The 15- and 30-day SELLs say the model does not expect a fast reclaim. Gold’s failure to bounce on the payroll miss is the macro company this short is keeping.

Strong Buy/Sell Call Highlights

Older files (summarized)

June 13 post (signal June 12): 57 matured. Great 13 / better 16 / flat 8 / bad 6 / ugly 14. Directed win rate (great+better vs bad+ugly): 59.2%.

July 3 post (signal July 2): 41 matured. Great 12 / better 9 / flat 3 / bad 8 / ugly 9. Directed win rate: 55.3%.

July 11 post (signal July 10): 43 matured. Great 11 / better 10 / flat 4 / bad 10 / ugly 8. Directed win rate: 53.8%.

July 18 post (signal July 17): 58 matured. Great 17 / better 12 / flat 7 / bad 9 / ugly 13. Directed win rate: 56.9%.

July 25 post (signal July 24): 56 matured. Great 17 / better 9 / flat 9 / bad 6 / ugly 15. Directed win rate: 55.3%.

August 1 post (signal July 31): 50 matured. Great 9 / better 6 / flat 9 / bad 7 / ugly 19. Directed win rate: 36.6% on decided trades.

August 8 post (signal August 7): 40 matured. Great 13 / better 12 / flat 4 / bad 7 / ugly 4. Directed win rate: 69.4%.

August 15 post (signal August 14): 21 matured. Great 3 / better 1 / flat 4 / bad 8 / ugly 5. Directed win rate: 23.5%.

August 22 post (signal August 21): 19 matured. Great 1 / better 9 / flat 5 / bad 2 / ugly 2. Directed win rate: 71.4%.

August 29 post (signal August 28): 5-day sleeve previously scored; longer prints from that file stayed mixed as energy gave back part of the August spike into September. No new August sleeve matured on the October 2 close.

Post dated September 5, 2026 (signal close September 4)

10-day prints were scored in the September 26 post. The 15-day sleeve matured September 28 and is scored here. Longer horizons from this file remain open.

ETF	Horizon	Signal	Realized Return	Rating
XRT	10	SELL	+6.36%	great
SPY	10	SELL	+1.10%	better
XLE	10	BUY	+0.39%	flat
XOP	10	BUY	−0.05%	flat
XLK	10	SELL	−1.24%	bad
XME	10	BUY	−8.38%	ugly
XLU	15	SELL	+8.89%	great
XLY	15	SELL	+5.14%	great
DIA	15	SELL	+3.76%	great
QQQ	15	BUY	+2.44%	great
JNK	15	buy	−2.21%	ugly
XLE	15	BUY	−3.06%	ugly
XLI	15	BUY	−3.70%	ugly

Verified 15-day path September 4 → September 28: DIA 534.08 → 514.02; JNK 95.27 → 93.16; QQQ 718.96 → 736.53; XLE 64.06 → 62.10; XLI 175.27 → 168.78; XLU 43.08 → 39.25; XLY 114.91 → 109.00.

Post dated September 12, 2026 (signal close September 11)

5-day and 10-day prints were scored in prior posts. Newly matured: the 15-day sleeve, exit October 2. Longer horizons from this file remain open.

ETF	Horizon	Signal	Realized Return	Rating
XRT	5	SELL	+3.26%	great
XLF	5	SELL	+2.43%	great
XLK	5	BUY	+1.03%	better
XOP	5	BUY	−2.61%	ugly
XES	5	BUY	−4.98%	ugly
XRT	10	SELL	+2.74%	great
TQQQ	10	SELL	−12.14%	ugly
XLE	10	BUY	−4.76%	ugly
XME	10	BUY	−4.66%	ugly
XOP	10	buy	−7.27%	ugly
XLU	15	SELL	+6.04%	great
JNK	15	SELL	+2.35%	great
BND	15	sell	+1.80%	better
SPY	15	buy	+0.70%	better
XLV	15	BUY	+0.50%	flat
XLI	15	BUY	−1.40%	bad
XLE	15	BUY	−3.56%	ugly
XLB	15	BUY	−4.10%	ugly
GLD	15	BUY	−4.67%	ugly
XES	15	BUY	−10.44%	ugly

Verified 15-day path September 11 → October 2: BND 71.22 → 69.94; GLD 398.77 → 380.14; JNK 94.61 → 92.39; SPY 764.29 → 769.64; XES 121.89 → 109.16; XLB 50.95 → 48.86; XLE 65.14 → 62.82; XLI 172.37 → 169.95; XLU 42.39 → 39.83; XLV 165.36 → 166.18. The XES 15-day BUY is the worst new print of the week.

Post dated September 19, 2026 (signal close September 18)

5-day prints were scored last week. Newly matured: the 10-day sleeve, exit October 2. Longer horizons from this file remain open.

ETF	Horizon	Signal	Realized Return	Rating
GLD	5	SELL	+1.93%	better
XME	5	SELL	+0.32%	flat
XLE	5	BUY	−3.53%	ugly
XOP	5	BUY	−4.78%	ugly
GLD	10	SELL	+5.24%	great
XLP	10	sell	+2.74%	great
JNK	10	SELL	+2.28%	great
XOP	10	buy	−2.98%	ugly
TQQQ	10	SELL	−11.52%	ugly

Verified 10-day path September 18 → October 2: GLD 401.17 → 380.14; JNK 94.55 → 92.39; TQQQ 72.64 → 81.01; XLP 82.80 → 80.53; XOP 190.61 → 184.93. The TQQQ 10-day SELL is the second leverage miss in two weeks. Last week’s September 11 10-day TQQQ SELL closed −12.14%. This one closed −11.52%.

Post dated September 26, 2026 (signal close September 25)

Newly matured: 5-day All-column prints, exit October 2. Longer horizons from this file remain open.

ETF	Horizon	Signal	Realized Return	Rating
GLD	5	SELL	+3.37%	great
XME	5	SELL	+2.39%	great
TQQQ	5	BUY	+1.77%	better
QQQ	5	BUY	+0.68%	better
XOP	5	SELL	−1.89%	bad

Verified 5-day path September 25 → October 2: GLD 393.41 → 380.14; XME 108.33 → 105.74; TQQQ 79.60 → 81.01; QQQ 744.50 → 749.58; XOP 181.50 → 184.93.

Over the last five published weeks that now have closed prints, the utility and discretionary shorts from September 4 paid, the gold shorts from September 18 and September 25 paid, and the energy longs from September 11 kept losing. The September 11 15-day XES BUY was the worst new print (−10.44%). The September 18 10-day TQQQ SELL was the leverage miss (−11.52%). The September 25 5-day sleeve was the cleanest recent book: four directed wins and one bad, the XOP short. Across every matured call since the June 13 file, last week’s running tally was 53.2% directed (185 wins, 163 losses, 59 flats on 407 matured). Adding this week’s 27 newly closed prints — 15 wins, 11 losses, 1 flat — leaves the long-run directed book at 53.5% (200 wins, 174 losses, 60 flats on 434 matured). The latest 5-day sleeve improved. The full book did not leave coin-flip territory.

Recent hits worth owning in the record: XLU 15-day SELL from September 4 closed +8.89%; XLU 15-day SELL from September 11 closed +6.04%; GLD 10-day SELL from September 18 closed +5.24%; XLY 15-day SELL from September 4 closed +5.14%; GLD 5-day SELL from September 25 closed +3.37%; XME 5-day SELL from September 25 closed +2.39%. Recent misses: TQQQ 10-day SELL from September 18 closed −11.52%; XES 15-day BUY from September 11 closed −10.44%; GLD 15-day BUY from September 11 closed −4.67%; XLB 15-day BUY from September 11 closed −4.10%; XOP 5-day SELL from September 25 closed −1.89%.

Nothing in this post is a recommendation to buy or sell any security.

— Stock Trends with Joe

Saturday, September 26, 2026

QQQ Full-Curve BUY vs XOP Front-End SELL: ETF Technical Signals for September 26, 2026

QQQ Full-Curve BUY vs XOP Front-End SELL: ETF Technical Signals After the September 25 Close

Published Saturday, September 26, 2026

SPY closed Friday at 771.35, up 1.27% from last Friday’s 761.69. The S&P 500 finished at 7,743.41, a 1.21% weekly gain and a 0.51% Friday bounce. The Nasdaq Composite rose 2.06% on the week to 27,068.72. The Dow rose 0.28% to 51,828.62, snapping a three-week slide. The 10-year Treasury tagged 5.228% midweek and settled near 5.18%. WTI settled $92.41, down 2.3% Friday and about 8% on the week after Hormuz-reopen talk. Last week’s 5-day XOP BUY and 5-day XLE BUY both lost money. The new sheet flipped both energy prints to the short side in the front.

Overall Market Insights

Technology took the week and the models followed it all the way out the curve. QQQ closed 744.50, up 3.19% from 721.45. XLK closed 196.27, up 3.52% from 189.60. The sheet now prints a three-model BUY in QQQ at 5, 15, 20, 25, and 30 days. That is the full available stack except 10 days, which stayed blank. TQQQ flipped from last week’s 10-day SELL to a three-model 5-day BUY. Do not treat the two as the same clock. QQQ is a five-horizon long. TQQQ is a 5-day long only.

Energy is the other clean flip. Last week XLE and XOP were three-model 5-day BUYs. Both funds sold off with crude. XLE fell 3.53% to 62.04. XOP fell 4.78% to 181.50. XES fell 2.81% to 112.57. The new file kills the 5-day energy longs and prints three-model SELLs in XOP at 5 and 10 days. XLE is a three-model BUY at 10 days and Buys at 20 and 25. That is not a contradiction if you keep the clocks separate: E&P is short in the front, integrated energy is long behind 10 days. XES is a three-model BUY at 30 days only.

Healthcare flipped from last week’s back-end long to a 15- and 20-day short. XLV is a three-model SELL at 15 and 20 days and a Buy at 25. The fund rose 1.37% this week to 170.70. The models are not chasing that bounce. They are fading the next three to four weeks. XHS stayed long at 20 and 30. XBI stayed a 30-day Buy.

Last week’s industrial stack is gone. XLI had three-model BUYs at 15, 25, and 30 days on the September 19 file. Those All-column prints are blank this week. DIA kept Buys at 15 through 30 days, with a three-model BUY only at 20. The Dow bounced 0.3% after three down weeks. That is a thinner long than last week’s industrial call.

The remaining shorts sit in gold in the front, metals in the front, junk and Treasuries, banks at 30 days, homebuilders at 25–30, mid-caps at 25–30, and SPY at 15 days against a 30-day Buy. GLD is a three-model SELL at 5 days and a Buy at 30. XME is a three-model SELL at 5 days. JNK is a three-model SELL at 10 and 30. BND is a Sell at 20 and a three-model SELL at 30. KBE is a three-model SELL at 30. XHB is a Sell at 25 and a three-model SELL at 30. IJH is a Sell at 25 and 30. SPY is a three-model SELL at 15 days and a Buy at 30. Two clocks, two trades. Do not flatten them.

Highlights of Bullish and Bearish Signals

Bullish clusters: QQQ (5, 15, 20, 25, 30 BUY), TQQQ (5 BUY), DIA (20 BUY; 15, 25, 30 buy), XLK (15, 25, 30 buy), XLE (10 BUY; 20, 25 buy), XOP (20 BUY), XHS (20, 30 BUY), XES (30 BUY), XBI (30 buy), XLV (25 buy), GLD (30 buy), SPY (30 buy).

Bearish clusters: XOP SELL at 5 and 10 days against a 20-day BUY. XLV SELL at 15 and 20 days. GLD SELL at 5 days. XME SELL at 5 days. SPY SELL at 15 days. JNK SELL at 10 and 30 days. BND Sell at 20 and SELL at 30. KBE SELL at 30. XHB sell at 25 and SELL at 30. IJH Sell at 25 and 30. IWM sell at 15. UPRO Sell at 25.

Comparison to the September 19 Sheet

Last week the 5-day column was long XLE and XOP and short GLD and XME. The gold short paid. GLD fell from 401.17 to 393.41 (−1.93%). The metals short was noise: XME 108.68 to 108.33 (−0.32%). The energy longs did not pay. XOP −4.78%. XLE −3.53%. Those two 5-day BUYs from September 18 are scored below as ugly.

The new sheet rebuilt QQQ from a 25- and 30-day BUY into a five-horizon BUY and put TQQQ back on the long side at 5 days. It deleted the entire XLI 15- to 30-day stack. It flipped XOP from a 5-day BUY to a 5- and 10-day SELL. It flipped XLV from a 25-day buy / 30-day BUY into 15- and 20-day SELLs. It added a 15-day SPY SELL against the same 30-day buy. KBE returned as a 30-day SELL. XLB dropped off the All column in both directions. XRT stayed blank.

The Fed hike from September 17 is now two weeks in the tape. Yields made a new cycle high near 5.23% and then eased. Crude gave back the $100-plus print. The models responded by extending tech, shortening E&P in the front, shortening healthcare at 15–20 days, and taking industrials off the All column.

Consensus Signal Table

Green = buy. Red = sell. Bold capitals = all three model families (A, P, and N) agreed. Lowercase = All-column signal without a full three-way lock. Em dash = no signal.

ETF	5d	10d	15d	20d	25d	30d
BND	—	—	—	sell	—	SELL
DIA	—	—	buy	BUY	buy	buy
GLD	SELL	—	—	—	—	buy
IJH	—	—	—	—	sell	sell
IWM	—	—	sell	—	—	—
JNK	—	SELL	—	—	—	SELL
KBE	—	—	—	—	—	SELL
QQQ	BUY	—	BUY	BUY	BUY	BUY
SPY	—	—	SELL	—	—	buy
TQQQ	BUY	—	—	—	—	—
UPRO	—	—	—	—	sell	—
URTY	—	—	—	—	—	—
XBI	—	—	—	—	—	buy
XES	—	—	—	—	—	BUY
XHB	—	—	—	—	sell	SELL
XHS	—	—	—	BUY	—	BUY
XLB	—	—	—	—	—	—
XLE	—	BUY	—	buy	buy	—
XLF	—	—	—	—	—	—
XLI	—	—	—	—	—	—
XLK	—	—	buy	—	buy	buy
XLP	—	—	—	—	—	—
XLRE	—	—	—	—	—	—
XLU	—	—	—	—	—	—
XLV	—	—	SELL	SELL	buy	—
XLY	—	—	—	—	—	—
XME	SELL	—	—	—	—	—
XOP	SELL	SELL	—	BUY	—	—
XRT	—	—	—	—	—	—

Indicators behind the sheet include APO, DMI, MACD, MFI, Parabolic SAR, RSI, SMA crossovers, the Stochastic Momentum Indicator, Time Series Forecast, and the Ultimate Oscillator. The All column fires when the three internal families line up or when two fire and the third is blank. Back-test hit rates on this file run from about 0.59 on the 5-day GLD SELL to 0.90 on the 30-day DIA buy. Those are historical hit rates on the model, not promises.

Strong Consensus Trends & External Confirmation

QQQ 5-, 15-, 20-, 25-, and 30-day BUY / TQQQ 5-day BUY. Dow Jones via Morningstar (Sept. 25) put the Nasdaq Composite up 2.06% on the week to 27,068.72, the largest one-week gain since the week ending August 7, and off only 0.64% from Tuesday’s record close. That agrees with keeping QQQ long behind 15 days. It also agrees with the new 5-day QQQ BUY after a 3.19% week in the fund. Associated Press (Sept. 25) called this the first winning week in three for the major averages, with Nasdaq +2.1% and the S&P +1.2%. TQQQ closed 79.60, up 9.58% on the week. Last week’s 10-day TQQQ SELL from September 11 is scored below. It lost. The new 5-day TQQQ BUY is a fresh clock, not a roll of that miss.

XOP 5- and 10-day SELL against a 20-day BUY / XLE 10-day BUY. Reuters (Sept. 25) had WTI −2.3% Friday to $92.41 and down about 8% on the week after U.S. and Iranian negotiators discussed a phased reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Brent settled $104.32, −2.1% on the day. That tape matches the new XOP front-end shorts. It does not match last week’s 5-day energy BUYs, which closed ugly. The 20-day XOP BUY and the 10-day XLE BUY are reading a later window after the washout, not Friday’s print. Keep them on separate clocks.

GLD 5-day SELL against a 30-day buy. Kitco News (Sept. 25) had spot gold down more than 2% on the week and fighting $4,300 as the 10-year tagged a two-decade high near 5.20%. GLD closed 393.41 versus 401.17 last Friday (−1.93%). Last week’s 5-day GLD SELL paid. The new 5-day SELL is the same direction on a lower print. The 30-day buy is the opposite clock. Two trades.

XLV 15- and 20-day SELL. XLV rose 1.37% this week to 170.70 after last week’s 25-day buy / 30-day BUY. The new shorts sit against that bounce, not with it. Healthcare is not confirming the QQQ stack. Do not drag XLV onto the tech long.

XME 5-day SELL. XME closed 108.33 versus 108.68 last Friday (−0.32%) and 113.63 on September 11 (−4.66% over ten sessions). Last week’s 5-day SELL was flat. Last week’s 10-day XME BUY from September 11 is scored ugly below. The new 5-day SELL is the only metals print left on the All column.

SPY 15-day SELL against a 30-day buy / DIA 20-day BUY. SPY 771.35 is +1.27% on the week. The 15-day SELL is a mean-reversion call after that bounce, not a momentum call. DIA 517.49 is only +0.31% on the week. The 20-day DIA BUY is the leftover from last week’s broader Dow stack. XLI printed nothing.

JNK / BND / KBE SELL cluster. The 10-year near 5.18% after a 5.23% spike is the credit tape. Three-model JNK SELLs at 10 and 30 days, a BND SELL at 30 days, and a KBE SELL at 30 days are the rate call. XLF dropped off the All column after last week’s 30-day BUY. Banks are no longer the offset.