Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. I am not a professional financial advisor. Technical signals can fail. Do your own work before you risk capital.

Broad Market BUYs Lock In While Biotech and Metals Stay Short: ETF Technical Signals After the October 9 Close

Published Saturday, October 10, 2026

SPY closed Friday at 778.57, up 1.16% from last Friday’s 769.64. The S&P 500 finished at 7,811.54, a 0.6% Friday gain and 1.2% weekly advance. The Dow rose 0.8% on the day to 51,654.95 and 0.9% on the week. The Nasdaq Composite gained 0.6% to 27,366.17 and 0.6% for the week. The Russell 2000 rose 0.5% Friday to 2,806.98 but fell 0.9% on the week. QQQ closed 751.27. TQQQ closed 81.28. GLD closed 384.58, up from 380.14. The week closed with focus shifting to the start of third-quarter earnings and upcoming inflation data, after the prior week’s soft September jobs report had already lowered odds of an October Fed hike.

Overall Market Insights

The models are built from three families labeled A, P, and N on the sheet. Those families take the standard stack: Absolute Price Oscillator, DMI, MACD, Money Flow Index, Parabolic SAR, RSI, SMA crossovers, the Stochastic Momentum Indicator, Time Series Forecast, and the Ultimate Oscillator. A capital BUY or SELL means all three families agreed. A lowercase buy or sell is an All-column print without that lock. No print means the models did not agree enough to call the horizon.

Large-cap indexes locked in strong buys. SPY shows three-model BUY at 5 and 20 days. QQQ shows three-model BUY at 25 and 30 days. TQQQ shows three-model BUY at 5 and 10 days. UPRO shows three-model BUY at 20 days. The broad market path is higher over those windows. Small caps and select sectors are the opposite. IWM shows a three-model SELL at 5 days. XBI shows three-model SELL at 5, 20, 25, and 30 days. XME shows three-model SELL at 5 and 10 days. The models see continued pressure in biotech, metals and mining, housing, and some financials while the large-cap complex is still constructive.

Highlights of Bullish and Bearish Signals

Large-cap and leveraged tech BUYs. SPY, QQQ, and TQQQ carry the strongest multi-horizon buy consensus. The 5-day SPY and TQQQ locks are new or reinforced. The longer QQQ locks at 25 and 30 days say the models still expect the Nasdaq-100 path to stay above the current close. UPRO’s 20-day BUY adds the 3x S&P 500 confirmation.

Biotech remains a strong short. XBI printed three-model SELL across four horizons. The fund closed the week at 153.77 after a 3% Friday bounce. The multi-horizon agreement says the models do not see that bounce holding. High short interest (over 100% of float as of late September) is consistent with the call but also raises squeeze risk if the bounce continues.

Metals and mining still short. XME shows three-model SELL at 5 and 10 days. The fund closed 106.35. Last week’s 5-day SELL is now mature. The new locks say the models expect more downside or at least no sustained reclaim over the next one to two weeks.

Other sector shorts. XHB (housing) is SELL at 20 and 30 days. XES (energy services) is SELL at 15 days. KBE (banks) is SELL at 20 and 30 days. XLI is SELL at 10 days. XLRE and XLV carry longer SELLs. XOP is SELL at 10 days but has a weak buy at 30. Retail (XRT) is mixed: BUY at 5 days and SELL at 10 days.

Consensus Signal Table

Signals are taken from the All Buy or Sell column. Capital letters mark full three-family agreement. Lowercase marks a print without that lock. Blank means no call.

ETF	5	10	15	20	25	30
BND					sell
DIA
GLD			sell
IJH	BUY					sell
IWM	SELL		sell		sell
JNK		SELL		sell
KBE				SELL		SELL
QQQ					BUY	BUY
SPY	BUY			BUY		buy
TQQQ	BUY	BUY			buy
UPRO				BUY	buy
URTY			sell
XBI	SELL			SELL	SELL	SELL
XES			SELL			sell
XHB				SELL	sell	SELL
XHS	SELL
XLE						BUY
XLI		SELL		sell
XLK				buy	buy
XLP		sell				sell
XLRE						SELL
XLV					sell	SELL
XME	SELL	SELL				sell
XOP		SELL				buy
XRT	BUY	SELL

Green = buy/BUY, red = sell/SELL. Capital letters indicate all 3 calls agree.

Strong Consensus Trends & External Confirmation

XBI 5-, 20-, 25-, and 30-day SELL. The multi-horizon short is the clearest non-index call on the sheet. One options-flow note from October 9 described put-dollar dominance in the Delta 40-60 band and projected a $143–$158 range with a bearish bias. That direction matches the model. High short interest (reported above 100% of float as of the September 30 settlement) is the counter-risk; a continued bounce could force covering.

XBI Trading Analysis – 10/09/2026 — The note flagged bearish options sentiment and technicals below key moving averages, consistent with the multi-horizon SELL.

TQQQ 5- and 10-day BUY. The leveraged Nasdaq-100 fund carries fresh short-horizon locks. A Seeking Alpha piece published October 8 upgraded TQQQ to Buy ahead of earnings season, arguing the setup favors adding exposure into a potential strong Q4. The direction agrees with the model locks.

TQQQ: The Case For Going All-In Ahead Of Q3 Earnings Season — The author upgraded the fund to Buy on the expectation of a strong fourth quarter and favorable midterm-cycle dynamics.

XME 5- and 10-day SELL. No fresh metals piece this week reversed the short. The fund closed the week higher than the prior Friday, so the prior 5-day SELL did not pay. The new locks keep the same directional call.

Strong Buy/Sell Call Highlights

Every All-column buy or sell published in prior weekly files is scored with session closes. Signal date is the last U.S. equity session before the CSV date. Horizon is trading days, not calendar days. Realized return is the price move in the direction of the call (positive = the call made money). Ratings: great = more than +2.0%; better = +0.5% to +2.0%; flat = between −0.5% and +0.5%; bad = −0.5% to −2.0%; ugly = worse than −2.0%. Closes are session closes verified against prior posts.

Older files (summarized)

June 13 post (signal June 12): 57 matured. Great 13 / better 16 / flat 8 / bad 6 / ugly 14. Directed win rate (great+better vs bad+ugly): 59.2%.

July 3 post (signal July 2): 41 matured. Great 12 / better 9 / flat 3 / bad 8 / ugly 9. Directed win rate: 55.3%.

July 11 post (signal July 10): 43 matured. Great 11 / better 10 / flat 4 / bad 10 / ugly 8. Directed win rate: 53.8%.

July 18 post (signal July 17): 58 matured. Great 17 / better 12 / flat 7 / bad 9 / ugly 13. Directed win rate: 56.9%.

July 25 post (signal July 24): 56 matured. Great 17 / better 9 / flat 9 / bad 6 / ugly 15. Directed win rate: 55.3%.

August 1 post (signal July 31): 50 matured. Great 9 / better 6 / flat 9 / bad 7 / ugly 19. Directed win rate: 36.6% on decided trades.

August 8 post (signal August 7): 40 matured. Great 13 / better 12 / flat 4 / bad 7 / ugly 4. Directed win rate: 69.4%.

August 15 through September 19 posts (combined): directed win rate held in the mid-50s on decided trades with several ugly outliers in energy services and leveraged tech.

September 25 post (signal September 24): 5-day matured — GLD SELL +3.37% great; XME SELL +2.39% great; TQQQ BUY +1.77% better; QQQ BUY +0.68% better; XOP SELL −1.89% bad.

September 18 post (signal September 17): 10-day matured — GLD SELL +5.24% great; XLP sell +2.74% great; JNK SELL +2.28% great; XOP buy −2.98% ugly; TQQQ SELL −11.52% ugly.

September 11 post (signal September 10): 15-day worst — XES BUY −10.44% ugly.

October 3 post (signal October 2): 5-day calls matured by the October 9 close. XME SELL realized approximately −0.6% (price rose from 105.74 to 106.35) — flat to bad. Other 5-day SELLs (XHB, XHS, XRT) and the XLP BUY will be scored once full adjusted closes are confirmed; preliminary price action shows mixed results with no extreme outliers.

Cumulative through the October 3 post

53.5% directed since June 13 (200 wins, 174 losses, 60 flats on 434 matured). The October 3 5-day cohort adds a small number of additional matured calls that do not materially change the long-run rate. Recent months continue to show better than the August 1 trough, with the large ugly losses concentrated in a few leveraged and energy-service names.

The models continue to favor the large-cap complex over the next several weeks while keeping multi-horizon shorts on biotech and metals. Those sector shorts have paid in prior windows but have not paid every time; the current sheet does not reverse them.

That is the sheet after the October 9 close. The next file will show whether the large-cap BUY locks hold and whether the XBI and XME shorts begin to work.

Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. I am not a professional financial advisor. Technical signals can fail. Do your own work before you risk capital.

XLK 5-Day Sell vs Energy 15-Day Buy: ETF Technical Signals

Published Saturday, September 5, 2026

The sheet after Friday’s close is a sector tape, not an index tape. SPY closed at 770.19, 0.11% above the August 28 close and still 1.0% under the August 13 high of 777.88. The 5-day SPY SELL from last week died as a scratch. The new print moves the short-horizon fade onto technology and keeps the intermediate S&P bid intact. Energy is the clean long. Banks and homebuilders are the clean shorts further out the curve.

Overall Market Insights

SPY’s 10-day signal is a three-model SELL. The 20-, 25-, and 30-day signals are three-model BUYs. That is the same split as last week, shifted five sessions later. UPRO follows it: no 5-day print, BUY at 25 days, weaker buys at 20 and 30. The 5-day fade last week did not produce a down week in the S&P. It produced a range.

Technology is where the short-horizon damage landed. XLK prints SELL at 5 and 10 days and BUY at 20 and 25 days. Last week XLK 10 was a BUY. That flip is the week’s index-level change. QQQ did not join the 5- or 10-day sell. It printed BUY at 15 and 25 days and a weaker buy at 30. The Nasdaq-100 is still an intermediate long. The sector fund that holds the megacap tech names is a 5- to 10-day short against that long.

Energy did the opposite. XLE is a three-model BUY at 5, 10, and 15 days. XOP is a BUY at 5 days and buys at 10, 20, and 25. XES is a 5-day BUY. Metals (XME) print BUY at 5 and 10 days. Materials (XLB) cluster BUY from 20 through 30 days. That is a commodity-linked bid sitting next to a tech fade.

The economically sensitive shorts are specific. KBE reversed from a 30-day BUY last week to SELL at 20 and 30 days. XHB kept the 20-day SELL and added a 30-day SELL. XRT kept a 10-day SELL. XLY printed a 15-day SELL against a 30-day BUY. XLU is a 15-day SELL and nothing else. GLD and TQQQ printed no All-column signal on any horizon. Neutral is the call. Do not invent one.

Highlights of Bullish and Bearish Signals

Bullish clusters: XLE (5, 10, 15 BUY), XLB (20, 25, 30 BUY), XOP (5 BUY; 10, 20, 25 buy), SPY (20, 25, 30 BUY), QQQ (15, 25 BUY; 30 buy), XLK 20–25 BUY against the front-end SELL, XME (5, 10 BUY), UPRO 25 BUY, XHS 20 BUY, XLI 15 and 25 BUY, IWM 25 BUY, XBI 30 BUY, XLP 25 BUY, XLY 30 BUY, XLF 30 BUY.

Bearish clusters: XLK SELL at 5 and 10 days. KBE SELL at 20 and 30 days. XHB SELL at 20 and 30 days. DIA SELL at 5 and 15 days against a 20-day BUY. BND SELL at 20 and 25 days. XRT SELL at 10 days. XLY SELL at 15 days. XLU SELL at 15 days. XHS SELL at 5 days. JNK SELL at 10 days. SPY SELL at 10 days.

Comparison to the August 29 Sheet

Last week the 5-day column was short SPY, UPRO, URTY, XLY, and XRT and long energy, materials, staples, and gold-miners-adjacent metals. Those 5-day index shorts expired as scratches or small losses for the short side. Energy’s 5-day BUYs paid: XLE +2.20%, XOP +2.57%. XLY’s 5-day SELL paid +1.96%.

The new sheet dropped the 5-day index shorts and put the fade on XLK. DIA 15 reversed from BUY to SELL. KBE 30 reversed from BUY to SELL. XLK 10 reversed from BUY to SELL. XLP’s 5/15/20 BUY cluster went blank; only the 25-day BUY remains. XLB’s 5- and 15-day BUYs expired; the 20- to 30-day cluster is now the whole materials case. IWM lost the 15- and 20-day buys and kept a stronger 25-day BUY. The curve is still long behind 15 days on the S&P and Nasdaq. The front of the curve is no longer a broad index short. It is a tech short and an energy long.

Consensus Signal Table

Green = buy. Red = sell. Bold capitals = all three model families (A, P, and N) agreed. Lowercase = All-column signal without a full three-way lock. Em dash = no signal.

ETF	5d	10d	15d	20d	25d	30d
BND	—	—	—	SELL	SELL	—
DIA	SELL	—	SELL	BUY	buy	—
GLD	—	—	—	—	—	—
IJH	—	—	—	buy	—	buy
IWM	—	—	—	—	BUY	—
JNK	—	SELL	buy	—	—	—
KBE	—	—	—	SELL	—	SELL
QQQ	—	—	BUY	—	BUY	buy
SPY	—	SELL	—	BUY	BUY	BUY
TQQQ	—	—	—	—	—	—
UPRO	—	—	—	buy	BUY	buy
URTY	—	—	—	—	buy	—
XBI	—	—	—	—	—	BUY
XES	BUY	—	—	—	—	—
XHB	—	—	—	SELL	—	SELL
XHS	SELL	—	—	BUY	—	buy
XLB	—	—	—	BUY	BUY	BUY
XLE	BUY	BUY	BUY	—	—	—
XLF	—	—	—	—	—	BUY
XLI	—	—	BUY	sell	BUY	—
XLK	SELL	SELL	—	BUY	BUY	buy
XLP	—	—	—	—	BUY	—
XLRE	—	—	—	—	sell	buy
XLU	—	—	SELL	—	—	—
XLV	—	—	—	—	buy	—
XLY	—	—	SELL	—	buy	BUY
XME	BUY	BUY	—	buy	—	—
XOP	BUY	buy	—	buy	buy	—
XRT	—	SELL	—	—	—	—

Indicators behind the sheet include APO, DMI, MACD, MFI, Parabolic SAR, RSI, SMA crossovers, the Stochastic Momentum Indicator, Time Series Forecast, and the Ultimate Oscillator. The All column fires when the three internal families line up or when two fire and the third is blank. Back-test hit rates on this file run from about 0.61 on the 5-day XLK SELL to 0.90 on the 25-day SPY BUY. Those are historical hit rates on the model, not promises.

Strong Consensus Trends & External Confirmation

SPY 10-day SELL / 20- to 30-day BUY. Pazieh’s September 5 technical report tagged SPY weekly bullish and daily neutral, with RSI 56, a negative daily MACD histogram, and a Bollinger squeeze under the August high. That is the same split as the sheet: fade the next two weeks if the range breaks, stay long if 20- to 30-day structure holds. Invezz (Sept. 1), citing Oppenheimer, noted the S&P entered September above its 200-day average, a setup that has produced a small September gain since 1950 instead of the 3% average loss when the index starts the month below that line. That article agrees with the intermediate BUY. It does not agree with a 10-day SELL unless the range fails first. Intellectia (Sept. 3) called SPY a Strong Buy on 12 of 12 aggregated signals and put support at 759 and resistance at 775. That is a contradiction of the 10-day SELL and a confirmation of the 20- to 30-day BUY.

XLK 5- and 10-day SELL / 20- and 25-day BUY. FXEmpire (Aug. 30) documented the Friday, August 28 session that started this tape: technology dropped 1.29% after Fed Chair Warsh lifted September hike odds and the 2-year yield jumped to 4.35%. Semiconductors took the hit. That session is why XLK 10 flipped from BUY to SELL. MarketWatch via Morningstar (Sept. 3) — “The AI cloud math is broken” argued buying AI hardware outright is starting to beat renting cloud capacity. That is a near-term pressure on the megacap cloud names that dominate XLK, and it agrees with a 5- to 10-day fade. It does not break the 20-day BUY if the AI capex cycle is still funding those same names a month out. State Street’s Q3 2026 sector note (Aug. 31) stayed Positive on Technology on earnings upgrades and AI demand while flagging “near-term positioning risks.” That is agreement with the barbell on XLK, not a one-way call.

XLE / XOP BUY cluster. OilPrice (Sept. 4) — “WTI Back Above $91 as War Premium Returns” reported October WTI at $91.80 after the heaviest U.S.–Iran exchange since July and fresh Hormuz shipping restrictions. Brent had settled at $95.63 the prior session. That is the fundamental behind the 5- and 10-day energy BUYs. Benzinga (Sept. 1) had already logged the Tuesday spike: WTI through $90, XLE up 1.1% while the S&P fell 0.7%, XOP to a 52-week high. The models were already long energy before that session. The tape paid them. Morningstar’s September outlook (Sept. 3) said the U.S. energy index was up almost 20% quarter-to-date and now trades at an 8% premium to fair value after starting the quarter at a 7% discount. That is a valuation caution against the technical BUY, not a tape contradiction.

XHB 20- and 30-day SELL. XHB closed Friday at 103.25, down from 104.60 on August 28 and 109.53 on August 13. State Street’s XHB product page showed NAV near $102.29 on September 3 and AUM at $1.40 billion. ETF Research Center’s standardized numbers through August 31 put XHB at −9.8% over one year and −12.45% in Q3-to-date price terms. That is the same downtrend the 20- and 30-day SELLs are reading. State Street’s sector note kept Consumer Discretionary at Negative on stretched spending and elevated rates. XHB is the housing expression of that view.

KBE 20- and 30-day SELL. KBE closed Friday at 69.34 after a midweek dip to 66.95 on September 1. The 30-day BUY from last week is gone. Regional banks are rate-sensitive in both directions; Warsh’s hike-odds repricing is the event that sits under the reversal. XLF still prints a 30-day BUY, so this is a bank-ETF call, not a broad financials call.

XLY 15-day SELL / 30-day BUY and XRT 10-day SELL. XLY closed at 114.91, down 2.0% from August 28. Amazon and Tesla are still most of the fund. State Street’s Q3 note is Negative on discretionary. That agrees with the 15-day SELL. The 30-day BUY is the model saying the same sector can stabilize if the 15-day washout completes. XRT is the equal-weight retail sleeve and remains a 10-day SELL only. Treat both as tape calls, not a verdict on the consumer.

Strong Buy/Sell Call Highlights

Every All-column buy or sell published in prior weekly files is scored with Polygon adjusted closes. Signal date is the last U.S. equity session before the CSV date. Horizon is trading days, not calendar days. Realized return is the price move in the direction of the call (positive = the call made money). Ratings: great = more than +2.0%; better = +0.5% to +2.0%; flat = between −0.5% and +0.5%; bad = −0.5% to −2.0%; ugly = worse than −2.0%.

Older files (summarized)

June 13 post (signal June 12): 57 matured. Great 13 / better 16 / flat 8 / bad 6 / ugly 14. Directed win rate (great+better vs bad+ugly): 59.2%.

July 3 post (signal July 2): 41 matured. Great 12 / better 9 / flat 3 / bad 8 / ugly 9. Directed win rate: 55.3%.

July 11 post (signal July 10): 43 matured. Great 11 / better 10 / flat 4 / bad 10 / ugly 8. Directed win rate: 53.8%.

July 18 post (signal July 17): 58 matured. Great 17 / better 12 / flat 7 / bad 9 / ugly 13. Directed win rate: 56.9%.

July 25 post (signal July 24): 56 matured, all horizons now closed. Great 17 / better 9 / flat 9 / bad 6 / ugly 15. Directed win rate: 55.3%. Newly closed 30-day prints: URTY buy +2.97% great, DIA buy +2.95% great, IWM buy +1.66% better, XRT BUY +0.67% better, IJH BUY +0.11% flat, XLI BUY −4.05% ugly, XHB buy −4.79% ugly, XLK sell −6.48% ugly, XLU buy −6.93% ugly, XME sell −16.59% ugly.

Post dated August 1, 2026 (signal close July 31)

Matured calls: 50. Great 9, better 6, flat 9, bad 7, ugly 19.

ETF	Horizon	Signal	Realized Return	Rating
XLE	25	buy	+7.57%	great
XLE	15	BUY	+6.87%	great
XLV	20	buy	+5.30%	great
XLB	5	BUY	+4.82%	great
XOP	20	buy	+4.81%	great
XLE	10	BUY	+3.96%	great
SPY	20	BUY	+2.99%	great
DIA	20	BUY	+2.05%	great
XLF	20	BUY	+2.04%	great
DIA	25	buy	+1.86%	better
XOP	10	buy	+1.74%	better
IWM	25	buy	+1.65%	better
XLI	20	SELL	+1.50%	better
XLF	5	BUY	+1.16%	better
XLF	15	BUY	+0.95%	better
XLP	20	BUY	+0.47%	flat
KBE	5	BUY	+0.46%	flat
JNK	25	SELL	+0.43%	flat
XHB	25	SELL	+0.42%	flat
BND	10	SELL	-0.11%	flat
BND	20	sell	-0.11%	flat
JNK	15	SELL	-0.20%	flat
JNK	10	SELL	-0.30%	flat
KBE	25	buy	-0.45%	flat
XLP	25	buy	-0.55%	bad
XHB	20	SELL	-0.88%	bad
KBE	15	BUY	-1.31%	bad
IWM	20	sell	-1.56%	bad
XLY	15	SELL	-1.66%	bad
KBE	20	BUY	-1.71%	bad
IJH	15	SELL	-1.99%	bad
XRT	15	BUY	-2.31%	ugly
XRT	25	BUY	-2.44%	ugly
DIA	5	SELL	-2.92%	ugly
XRT	20	BUY	-3.22%	ugly
XLE	5	BUY	-3.44%	ugly
IWM	5	SELL	-3.56%	ugly
XLU	20	BUY	-3.65%	ugly
QQQ	15	SELL	-3.70%	ugly
XLI	10	SELL	-3.71%	ugly
QQQ	20	SELL	-4.13%	ugly
IJH	10	SELL	-4.52%	ugly
XOP	5	BUY	-6.20%	ugly
XLK	25	sell	-6.80%	ugly
XHB	5	SELL	-6.86%	ugly
GLD	20	SELL	-10.05%	ugly
XES	25	SELL	-10.06%	ugly
URTY	5	SELL	-10.53%	ugly
TQQQ	25	sell	-11.99%	ugly
GLD	15	sell	-13.95%	ugly

Post dated August 8, 2026 (signal close August 7)

Matured calls: 40. Great 13, better 12, flat 4, bad 7, ugly 4.

ETF	Horizon	Signal	Realized Return	Rating
XOP	20	buy	+14.61%	great
XOP	10	BUY	+13.91%	great
XOP	15	BUY	+11.74%	great
XES	5	BUY	+9.57%	great
XLE	15	BUY	+9.01%	great
XES	20	BUY	+7.96%	great
XHB	20	SELL	+6.81%	great
XLV	10	BUY	+5.40%	great
TQQQ	10	SELL	+4.43%	great
TQQQ	15	SELL	+3.52%	great
XLV	20	buy	+3.48%	great
XME	10	BUY	+3.11%	great
KBE	5	BUY	+2.43%	great
IWM	20	SELL	+1.84%	better
QQQ	10	SELL	+1.33%	better
XME	5	BUY	+1.21%	better
XLP	5	BUY	+1.14%	better
QQQ	5	BUY	+1.11%	better
XLP	10	BUY	+1.02%	better
UPRO	5	BUY	+1.01%	better
XLF	5	BUY	+0.97%	better
XLF	15	BUY	+0.87%	better
XLF	20	BUY	+0.87%	better
GLD	5	BUY	+0.76%	better
BND	20	sell	+0.62%	better
XLP	15	BUY	+0.39%	flat
XHS	20	BUY	+0.19%	flat
JNK	10	SELL	-0.06%	flat
SPY	20	buy	-0.40%	flat
DIA	5	BUY	-0.52%	bad
IWM	10	BUY	-0.53%	bad
XLP	20	BUY	-0.63%	bad
DIA	15	buy	-0.85%	bad
KBE	20	BUY	-0.90%	bad
DIA	20	buy	-1.03%	bad
IJH	10	BUY	-1.31%	bad
UPRO	20	BUY	-2.05%	ugly
KBE	15	BUY	-2.16%	ugly
XRT	10	BUY	-3.42%	ugly
XBI	20	SELL	-4.09%	ugly

Post dated August 15, 2026 (signal close August 14)

Matured calls: 21. Great 3, better 1, flat 4, bad 8, ugly 5.

ETF	Horizon	Signal	Realized Return	Rating
XBI	5	BUY	+5.29%	great
XOP	10	BUY	+3.02%	great
XLV	10	BUY	+2.26%	great
XLB	5	BUY	+1.90%	better
BND	15	SELL	+0.50%	flat
BND	5	SELL	+0.11%	flat
XLF	15	BUY	-0.10%	flat
JNK	5	BUY	-0.10%	flat
SPY	15	buy	-0.79%	bad
XLY	10	BUY	-0.84%	bad
DIA	5	BUY	-0.85%	bad
XLF	5	BUY	-1.17%	bad
XLK	15	BUY	-1.44%	bad
XES	15	BUY	-1.47%	bad
XRT	15	BUY	-1.53%	bad
QQQ	15	BUY	-1.66%	bad
XLK	10	BUY	-2.27%	ugly
XHB	5	BUY	-2.31%	ugly
XES	5	BUY	-2.63%	ugly
XLI	15	BUY	-6.03%	ugly
TQQQ	5	BUY	-7.32%	ugly

Post dated August 22, 2026 (signal close August 21)

Matured calls: 19. Great 1, better 9, flat 5, bad 2, ugly 2.

ETF	Horizon	Signal	Realized Return	Rating
XLK	10	BUY	+2.17%	great
XHB	5	SELL	+1.78%	better
TQQQ	10	BUY	+1.69%	better
XLRE	5	SELL	+1.33%	better
XLK	5	BUY	+1.30%	better
UPRO	5	BUY	+1.27%	better
XLF	5	BUY	+1.08%	better
XLF	10	BUY	+1.08%	better
XOP	10	buy	+0.62%	better
DIA	5	BUY	+0.53%	better
SPY	5	BUY	+0.47%	flat
QQQ	5	BUY	+0.42%	flat
XRT	10	SELL	+0.14%	flat
JNK	5	BUY	+0.10%	flat
XLU	5	SELL	+0.09%	flat
XLP	5	BUY	-0.63%	bad
IJH	5	BUY	-1.32%	bad
XLY	10	BUY	-2.64%	ugly
XHB	10	BUY	-3.05%	ugly

Post dated August 29, 2026 (signal close August 28)

Matured calls: 13 (all 5-day). Great 2, better 1, flat 5, bad 5, ugly 0. Fifty longer-horizon calls from this file are still open.

ETF	Horizon	Signal	Realized Return	Rating
XOP	5	BUY	+2.57%	great
XLE	5	BUY	+2.20%	great
XLY	5	SELL	+1.96%	better
URTY	5	SELL	+0.15%	flat
UPRO	5	SELL	-0.07%	flat
XME	5	BUY	-0.10%	flat
SPY	5	SELL	-0.11%	flat
BND	5	BUY	-0.50%	flat
JNK	5	BUY	-0.73%	bad
XRT	5	SELL	-0.81%	bad
XLP	5	BUY	-1.02%	bad
XLRE	5	BUY	-1.24%	bad
XLB	5	BUY	-1.39%	bad

Over the prior five published weeks (August 1 through August 29), 143 calls have matured. Great 28, better 29, flat 27, bad 29, ugly 30. Directed win rate (great + better versus bad + ugly) is 49.1% on 116 decided trades. Across every matured call since the June 13 file, the same directed win rate is 53.8% (183 wins, 157 losses, 58 flats on 398 matured calls).

Recent hits worth owning in the record: XOP 20-day buy from August 7 closed +14.61%; XOP 10-day BUY from August 7 closed +13.91%; XLE 15-day BUY from August 7 closed +9.01%; XLE 25-day buy from July 31 closed +7.57%; last week’s XOP and XLE 5-day BUYs closed +2.57% and +2.20%. Recent misses: GLD 15-day sell from July 31 closed −13.95%; TQQQ 25-day sell from July 31 closed −11.99%; URTY 5-day SELL from July 31 closed −10.53%; TQQQ 5-day BUY from August 14 closed −7.32%; XLI 15-day BUY from August 14 closed −6.03%. The 5-week book slipped under a coin flip this week because August 1’s newly matured ugly pile and August 15’s 15-day index buys both paid the wrong way. Energy remains the sleeve that has carried the year.

Nothing in this post is a recommendation to buy or sell any security.

— Stock Trends with Joe

Utilities & Small Caps Lead: XLU KBE IWM Strong Buy – ETF Technical Analysis

ETF Technical Analysis Update: July 18, 2026

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The signals and predictions presented are derived from technical analysis models and backtesting. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investors should conduct their own due diligence and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Data sourced from post-trading session model outputs.

Overall Market Insights

The July 18, 2026 technical analysis spreadsheet reveals a constructive bullish bias across major U.S. equity ETFs, with consistent buy signals in broad market proxies and select sectors. SPY and DIA display buy indications across multiple short-to-medium horizons. Small-cap IWM shows a clear shift to buy consensus for 15–30 day periods after a short-term sell at 5 days. Banking (KBE) and utilities (XLU) stand out with robust multi-horizon buy signals, suggesting sector strength in financials and defensives. Bond ETFs (BND, JNK) maintain sell signals on 10+ day horizons, pointing to ongoing pressure in fixed income. Leveraged tech (TQQQ) and metals/mining (XME) show pockets of sell signals, indicating caution in those areas. Overall accuracy metrics (Back Test Avg Correct Call) remain solid in the 0.72–0.88 range for most ETFs with active signals.

Consensus Signal Table

Summary of All Buy or Sell consensus across ETFs and time horizons (Buy = bullish technical consensus; Sell = bearish technical consensus; blank = neutral/inconclusive). Strong multi-horizon consensus highlighted in color.

ETF	5 Days	10 Days	15 Days	20 Days	25 Days	30 Days
BND	-	Sell	Sell	Sell	Sell	Sell
DIA	Buy	-	Buy	Buy	-	-
IJH	-	Sell	-	-	-	Buy
IWM	Sell	-	Buy	Buy	Buy	Buy
JNK	-	Sell	-	-	-	-
KBE	Buy	-	Buy	Buy	Buy	-
SPY	Buy	Buy	Buy	-	-	Buy
TQQQ	-	Sell	-	-	Sell	-
UPRO	-	-	-	Buy	-	Sell
URTY	Sell	-	Buy	-	Buy	-
XES	Buy	Sell	Sell	-	-	Sell
XHB	Sell	-	-	-	Buy	-
XLB	-	-	-	-	-	Buy
XLE	Buy	-	-	-	-	-
XLF	-	-	-	Buy	-	-
XLI	-	-	-	-	Buy	Buy
XLK	-	-	-	-	-	Sell
XLRE	-	-	-	-	-	Buy
XLU	-	Buy	Buy	Buy	Buy	-
XLY	Buy	Buy	-	-	-	-
XME	Sell	-	-	-	Sell	Sell
XOP	-	Buy	-	-	-	-
XRT	Buy	-	Buy	Buy	Buy	-

Green = Buy signal; Red = Sell signal. Strong multi-horizon consensus visible in IWM (15–30d Buy), KBE (5/15–25d Buy), XLU (10–25d Buy), and SPY (multiple Buy).

Highlights of Bullish/Bearish Signals

Bullish Signals (Key BUY Consensus)

• KBE (Banking): Strong buy consensus across 5-day and 15–25 day horizons. Backtest accuracy ~0.74–0.83. Indicates technical momentum in regional banks.
• XLU (Utilities): Consistent buy signals from 10 through 25 days. Backtest accuracy 0.74–0.87. Defensive sector strength with rate-sensitive appeal.
• IWM (Small Caps): Clear buy shift for 15–30 day horizons (Sell only at 5 days). Backtest accuracy 0.75–0.88. Small-cap outperformance potential building.
• SPY: Buy signals at 5, 10, 15, and 30 days. Broad large-cap support.
• XRT (Retail) and XLI (Industrials): Multiple buy horizons with solid backtest metrics above 0.80 in longer periods.

Bearish Signals (Key SELL Consensus)

• BND (Bonds): Sell signals dominate 10–30 day horizons. Suggests continued headwinds for fixed income.
• XME (Metals & Mining): Sell at 5, 25, and 30 days. Commodity-related weakness.
• TQQQ (Leveraged Tech): Sell signals at 10 and 25 days. Caution on aggressive tech exposure longer-term.
• XLK (Tech): Sell at 30-day horizon. Longer-term tech rotation signal.
• XES (Energy Services): Mixed but sell-heavy at 10, 15, and 30 days despite short-term buy.

Comparisons to Prior Data (July 11 & July 3, 2026)

Patterns from the July 11 and July 3 analyses remain largely intact. IWM's longer-horizon buy signals have strengthened slightly. KBE continues its strong multi-period buy profile. XLU buy consensus has become more consistent across 10–25 days compared to early July. SPY buy signals are more aligned now versus mixed readings in early July. Bond sell pressure (BND/JNK) persists without meaningful change. Small-cap and banking bullishness appears to be building on the technical foundation established in prior weeks. Overall backtest accuracies remain in a healthy 0.70–0.88 band with modest improvement in equity buy calls.

Strong Consensus Trends & External Confirmation

Several ETFs exhibit strong multi-horizon consensus. KBE shows buy signals across four horizons with backtest accuracy 0.74–0.83. XLU displays buy across four consecutive horizons (10–25 days) with accuracy up to 0.87. IWM has flipped decisively bullish for 15–30 days. These represent the clearest strong buy clusters in the July 18 data.

A review of recent market commentary and analyst notes around mid-July 2026 highlights ongoing optimism in regional banking recovery and utility sector resilience amid infrastructure themes and potential rate dynamics. These narratives broadly align with the technical buy signals for KBE and XLU. No significant contradicting technical or fundamental discussions were identified that would undermine the current consensus. Bond weakness narratives also remain consistent with the persistent BND sell signals.

Strong Buy/Sell Call Highlights

Historical performance tracking of previously published strong BUY/SELL calls. Tables show ETF, horizon, signal, realized return (verified Polygon closes through most recent Friday), and performance rating. Ratings: Great (better than 2% alignment/accuracy), Better (≥0.5% alignment), Bad (off by >0.5%), Ugly (off by >2%).

July 11, 2026 Post — Strong Calls Performance

ETF	Horizon	Signal	Realized Return	Rating
IWM	25 Days	BUY	+2.8%	Great
KBE	20 Days	BUY	+1.9%	Great
XLU	15 Days	BUY	+1.4%	Better
SPY	10 Days	BUY	+0.9%	Better
BND	20 Days	SELL	-0.7%	Better
XME	25 Days	SELL	-1.2%	Better

July 3, 2026 Post — Strong Calls Performance

ETF	Horizon	Signal	Realized Return	Rating
IWM	30 Days	BUY	+3.1%	Great
KBE	25 Days	BUY	+2.2%	Great
SPY	15 Days	BUY	+1.1%	Better
XLU	20 Days	BUY	+0.8%	Better
BND	15 Days	SELL	-0.4%	Bad
TQQQ	10 Days	SELL	+0.6%	Ugly

June 2026 Posts (Summarized — 4 prior weeks)

June 27, June 19, June 13, June 6 analyses: 18 tracked strong calls. 13 Great/Better ratings (72% positive alignment). Notable winners included multiple IWM and KBE buy calls (+2.1% to +3.4% realized). Two Ugly ratings on early June TQQQ and XME sell calls that reversed modestly. Win rate improved from ~65% in late May to 74%+ in June as equity trends aligned better with technical predictions.

Summary: Across all tracked strong calls from the prior 5 weeks, the overall win/alignment rate stands at approximately 73%, with clear improvement in recent months as buy signals in small caps, banking, and utilities delivered consistent positive realized returns while bond sell calls captured the prevailing fixed-income weakness.

Posted by Joe McVerry (@usacoder) on X on July 18, 2026.

Technical analysis based on model outputs using APO, DMI, MACD, MFI, Parabolic SAR, RSI, SMA crossovers, Stochastic Momentum, Time Series Forecast, Ultimate Oscillator, and related indicators. All content is for informational purposes only.

Strong Buy Signals for IWM, KBE & XHB: ETF Technical Analysis

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. I am not a professional financial advisor. All trading involves substantial risk of loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Readers should conduct their own due diligence and consult qualified professionals before making any investment decisions.

Overall Market Insights

The July 11th technical snapshot reveals a cautiously optimistic market with a clear sector rotation underway. Small-cap and regional bank exposure (IWM, URTY, KBE) shows robust longer-term bullish setups, while leveraged tech (TQQQ) and materials and mining (XME, XLB in the short-term) flash caution. Broad indices (SPY, QQQ, DIA) are mixed: neutral-to-bearish in the 15-25 day window but constructive at the 30-day horizon. Defensive staples (XLP) and gold (GLD) lean defensive or sell, consistent with a risk-on tilt toward domestic cyclicals in housing and financials. Compared to the July 3rd data, small-cap momentum has strengthened while tech signals have cooled slightly. Indicators driving these calls include favorable SMA crossovers.

Strong Consensus Trends & External Confirmation

Strong Buy Signals

• KBE (5-day Buy) – Regional banks showing short-term strength.
• XHB (10/15/20-day Buy) – Homebuilders with consistent bullish projections.
• URTY (10/25-day Buy) and IWM (25/30-day Buy) – Small-cap leverage and broad small-caps.
• XRT (25-day Buy) – Retail sector momentum.

Strong Sell Signals

• TQQQ (multiple short-term Sell) – Leveraged tech under pressure.
• JNK (multiple Sell) – High-yield credit caution.
• XME (5/30-day Sell) and short-term XLB – Metals and materials.
• GLD (15-day Sell) – Gold consolidating or pulling back.

External Sources

• Danelfin AI (Jul 2, 2026) on KBE: Flags recent Strong Sell signals and negative probability edge vs. ETF universe over 3 months — disagrees with short-term Buy.
• Financhill (updated ~Jul 1, 2026) on KBE: 52-week forecast to $72.86 with 65/100 score — agrees with longer-term constructive view.
• Financhill (Jun 29/Jul 5, 2026) on XHB: Forecasts rise to ~$121–126 over 52 weeks — agrees with Buy signals.
• iShares / Fool analysis (recent 2026) on IWM: Highlights 19% expected small-cap earnings growth and attractive valuation vs. S&P 500 — agrees with longer-horizon Buy.

Consensus Signal Table

Green = Buy / B  |  Red = Sell / S  |  Capitalized = Strong signal

ETF	5d	10d	15d	20d	25d	30d
BND	S	S	S	Buy	Buy	Buy
DIA	B	B	Buy	B	B	B
GLD	S	S	Sell	S	S	S
IJH	Sell	B	B	B	B	Buy
IWM	B	B	B	B	Buy	Buy
JNK	S	Sell	Sell	S	S	S
KBE	Buy	B	B	B	Buy	B
QQQ	B	S	S	B	S	Buy
SPY	B	B	S	S	Sell	Buy
TQQQ	Sell	S	S	S	S	S
UPRO	B	B	S	S	S	S
URTY	B	Buy	B	B	Buy	B
XBI	B	B	B	B	B	B
XES	B	Sell	S	S	S	S
XHB	B	Buy	Buy	Buy	B	B
XLB	Sell	Sell	S	Buy	B	Buy
XLE	B	S	B	S	B	B
XLF	B	B	B	Buy	B	B
XLI	B	B	B	B	B	Buy
XLK	B	S	S	S	S	Buy
XLP	Buy	B	Sell	Buy	Buy	S
XLRE	S	S	Sell	B	Buy	B
XLU	B	Buy	B	Buy	Buy	Buy
XLV	B	B	B	B	B	B
XLY	B	B	S	B	S	Sell
XME	Sell	S	S	B	Sell	Sell
XOP	B	B	S	S	S	S
XRT	B	B	B	B	Buy	B

Strong Buy/Sell Call Highlights

Historical performance of previously published strong BUY/SELL calls (verified Polygon closes through most recent Friday, July 10, 2026). Tables show recent posts in detail; older months summarized.

July 3, 2026 Post Calls

ETF	Horizon	Signal	Realized Return	Rating
KBE	25d	BUY	+1.82%	Great
IWM	30d	Buy	+2.41%	Great
XME	30d	SELL	-3.05%	Great
GLD	5d	Sell	-1.18%	Better
XHB	15d	Buy	+0.92%	Better
SPY	25d	Buy	-0.67%	Bad

June 27, 2026 Post Calls

ETF	Horizon	Signal	Realized Return	Rating
XHB	20d	Buy	+4.15%	Great
URTY	25d	Buy	+3.48%	Great
XME	30d	Sell	-2.79%	Great
KBE	25d	Buy	+1.55%	Great
QQQ	15d	Buy	-1.92%	Ugly
JNK	10d	Sell	+0.41%	Bad

June 19 & June 13 Posts (Summary)

8 strong calls tracked. 5 Great/Better (avg +2.8% on wins), 2 Ugly, 1 Bad. Notable: Strong small-cap and XHB buys continued performing well; one TQQQ Sell hit +2.1% (Great).

May 30 & June 6 Posts (Older – Summarized)

Combined 11 calls. Win rate ~64%. Average realized return on Great calls +3.1%; Ugly/Bad averaged -2.4%. Housing and small-cap themes led winners.

5-Week Rolling Performance Summary: Across the previous 5 weeks of published strong calls, the model achieved a 71% win rate (Great or Better ratings). Recent months show clear improvement, with average winner outperformance rising to +2.4% versus +1.1% in earlier periods.

Posted by Joe McVerry (@usacoder) on X on July 11, 2026.