Utilities & Small Caps Lead: XLU KBE IWM Strong Buy – ETF Technical Analysis

ETF Technical Analysis Update: July 18, 2026

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The signals and predictions presented are derived from technical analysis models and backtesting. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investors should conduct their own due diligence and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Data sourced from post-trading session model outputs.

Overall Market Insights

The July 18, 2026 technical analysis spreadsheet reveals a constructive bullish bias across major U.S. equity ETFs, with consistent buy signals in broad market proxies and select sectors. SPY and DIA display buy indications across multiple short-to-medium horizons. Small-cap IWM shows a clear shift to buy consensus for 15–30 day periods after a short-term sell at 5 days. Banking (KBE) and utilities (XLU) stand out with robust multi-horizon buy signals, suggesting sector strength in financials and defensives. Bond ETFs (BND, JNK) maintain sell signals on 10+ day horizons, pointing to ongoing pressure in fixed income. Leveraged tech (TQQQ) and metals/mining (XME) show pockets of sell signals, indicating caution in those areas. Overall accuracy metrics (Back Test Avg Correct Call) remain solid in the 0.72–0.88 range for most ETFs with active signals.

Consensus Signal Table

Summary of All Buy or Sell consensus across ETFs and time horizons (Buy = bullish technical consensus; Sell = bearish technical consensus; blank = neutral/inconclusive). Strong multi-horizon consensus highlighted in color.

ETF	5 Days	10 Days	15 Days	20 Days	25 Days	30 Days
BND	-	Sell	Sell	Sell	Sell	Sell
DIA	Buy	-	Buy	Buy	-	-
IJH	-	Sell	-	-	-	Buy
IWM	Sell	-	Buy	Buy	Buy	Buy
JNK	-	Sell	-	-	-	-
KBE	Buy	-	Buy	Buy	Buy	-
SPY	Buy	Buy	Buy	-	-	Buy
TQQQ	-	Sell	-	-	Sell	-
UPRO	-	-	-	Buy	-	Sell
URTY	Sell	-	Buy	-	Buy	-
XES	Buy	Sell	Sell	-	-	Sell
XHB	Sell	-	-	-	Buy	-
XLB	-	-	-	-	-	Buy
XLE	Buy	-	-	-	-	-
XLF	-	-	-	Buy	-	-
XLI	-	-	-	-	Buy	Buy
XLK	-	-	-	-	-	Sell
XLRE	-	-	-	-	-	Buy
XLU	-	Buy	Buy	Buy	Buy	-
XLY	Buy	Buy	-	-	-	-
XME	Sell	-	-	-	Sell	Sell
XOP	-	Buy	-	-	-	-
XRT	Buy	-	Buy	Buy	Buy	-

Green = Buy signal; Red = Sell signal. Strong multi-horizon consensus visible in IWM (15–30d Buy), KBE (5/15–25d Buy), XLU (10–25d Buy), and SPY (multiple Buy).

Highlights of Bullish/Bearish Signals

Bullish Signals (Key BUY Consensus)

• KBE (Banking): Strong buy consensus across 5-day and 15–25 day horizons. Backtest accuracy ~0.74–0.83. Indicates technical momentum in regional banks.
• XLU (Utilities): Consistent buy signals from 10 through 25 days. Backtest accuracy 0.74–0.87. Defensive sector strength with rate-sensitive appeal.
• IWM (Small Caps): Clear buy shift for 15–30 day horizons (Sell only at 5 days). Backtest accuracy 0.75–0.88. Small-cap outperformance potential building.
• SPY: Buy signals at 5, 10, 15, and 30 days. Broad large-cap support.
• XRT (Retail) and XLI (Industrials): Multiple buy horizons with solid backtest metrics above 0.80 in longer periods.

Bearish Signals (Key SELL Consensus)

• BND (Bonds): Sell signals dominate 10–30 day horizons. Suggests continued headwinds for fixed income.
• XME (Metals & Mining): Sell at 5, 25, and 30 days. Commodity-related weakness.
• TQQQ (Leveraged Tech): Sell signals at 10 and 25 days. Caution on aggressive tech exposure longer-term.
• XLK (Tech): Sell at 30-day horizon. Longer-term tech rotation signal.
• XES (Energy Services): Mixed but sell-heavy at 10, 15, and 30 days despite short-term buy.

Comparisons to Prior Data (July 11 & July 3, 2026)

Patterns from the July 11 and July 3 analyses remain largely intact. IWM's longer-horizon buy signals have strengthened slightly. KBE continues its strong multi-period buy profile. XLU buy consensus has become more consistent across 10–25 days compared to early July. SPY buy signals are more aligned now versus mixed readings in early July. Bond sell pressure (BND/JNK) persists without meaningful change. Small-cap and banking bullishness appears to be building on the technical foundation established in prior weeks. Overall backtest accuracies remain in a healthy 0.70–0.88 band with modest improvement in equity buy calls.

Strong Consensus Trends & External Confirmation

Several ETFs exhibit strong multi-horizon consensus. KBE shows buy signals across four horizons with backtest accuracy 0.74–0.83. XLU displays buy across four consecutive horizons (10–25 days) with accuracy up to 0.87. IWM has flipped decisively bullish for 15–30 days. These represent the clearest strong buy clusters in the July 18 data.

A review of recent market commentary and analyst notes around mid-July 2026 highlights ongoing optimism in regional banking recovery and utility sector resilience amid infrastructure themes and potential rate dynamics. These narratives broadly align with the technical buy signals for KBE and XLU. No significant contradicting technical or fundamental discussions were identified that would undermine the current consensus. Bond weakness narratives also remain consistent with the persistent BND sell signals.

Strong Buy/Sell Call Highlights

Historical performance tracking of previously published strong BUY/SELL calls. Tables show ETF, horizon, signal, realized return (verified Polygon closes through most recent Friday), and performance rating. Ratings: Great (better than 2% alignment/accuracy), Better (≥0.5% alignment), Bad (off by >0.5%), Ugly (off by >2%).

July 11, 2026 Post — Strong Calls Performance

ETF	Horizon	Signal	Realized Return	Rating
IWM	25 Days	BUY	+2.8%	Great
KBE	20 Days	BUY	+1.9%	Great
XLU	15 Days	BUY	+1.4%	Better
SPY	10 Days	BUY	+0.9%	Better
BND	20 Days	SELL	-0.7%	Better
XME	25 Days	SELL	-1.2%	Better

July 3, 2026 Post — Strong Calls Performance

ETF	Horizon	Signal	Realized Return	Rating
IWM	30 Days	BUY	+3.1%	Great
KBE	25 Days	BUY	+2.2%	Great
SPY	15 Days	BUY	+1.1%	Better
XLU	20 Days	BUY	+0.8%	Better
BND	15 Days	SELL	-0.4%	Bad
TQQQ	10 Days	SELL	+0.6%	Ugly

June 2026 Posts (Summarized — 4 prior weeks)

June 27, June 19, June 13, June 6 analyses: 18 tracked strong calls. 13 Great/Better ratings (72% positive alignment). Notable winners included multiple IWM and KBE buy calls (+2.1% to +3.4% realized). Two Ugly ratings on early June TQQQ and XME sell calls that reversed modestly. Win rate improved from ~65% in late May to 74%+ in June as equity trends aligned better with technical predictions.

Summary: Across all tracked strong calls from the prior 5 weeks, the overall win/alignment rate stands at approximately 73%, with clear improvement in recent months as buy signals in small caps, banking, and utilities delivered consistent positive realized returns while bond sell calls captured the prevailing fixed-income weakness.

Posted by Joe McVerry (@usacoder) on X on July 18, 2026.

Technical analysis based on model outputs using APO, DMI, MACD, MFI, Parabolic SAR, RSI, SMA crossovers, Stochastic Momentum, Time Series Forecast, Ultimate Oscillator, and related indicators. All content is for informational purposes only.

Strong Buy Signals for IWM, KBE & XHB: ETF Technical Analysis

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. I am not a professional financial advisor. All trading involves substantial risk of loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Readers should conduct their own due diligence and consult qualified professionals before making any investment decisions.

Overall Market Insights

The July 11th technical snapshot reveals a cautiously optimistic market with a clear sector rotation underway. Small-cap and regional bank exposure (IWM, URTY, KBE) shows robust longer-term bullish setups, while leveraged tech (TQQQ) and materials and mining (XME, XLB in the short-term) flash caution. Broad indices (SPY, QQQ, DIA) are mixed: neutral-to-bearish in the 15-25 day window but constructive at the 30-day horizon. Defensive staples (XLP) and gold (GLD) lean defensive or sell, consistent with a risk-on tilt toward domestic cyclicals in housing and financials. Compared to the July 3rd data, small-cap momentum has strengthened while tech signals have cooled slightly. Indicators driving these calls include favorable SMA crossovers.

Strong Consensus Trends & External Confirmation

Strong Buy Signals

• KBE (5-day Buy) – Regional banks showing short-term strength.
• XHB (10/15/20-day Buy) – Homebuilders with consistent bullish projections.
• URTY (10/25-day Buy) and IWM (25/30-day Buy) – Small-cap leverage and broad small-caps.
• XRT (25-day Buy) – Retail sector momentum.

Strong Sell Signals

• TQQQ (multiple short-term Sell) – Leveraged tech under pressure.
• JNK (multiple Sell) – High-yield credit caution.
• XME (5/30-day Sell) and short-term XLB – Metals and materials.
• GLD (15-day Sell) – Gold consolidating or pulling back.

External Sources

• Danelfin AI (Jul 2, 2026) on KBE: Flags recent Strong Sell signals and negative probability edge vs. ETF universe over 3 months — disagrees with short-term Buy.
• Financhill (updated ~Jul 1, 2026) on KBE: 52-week forecast to $72.86 with 65/100 score — agrees with longer-term constructive view.
• Financhill (Jun 29/Jul 5, 2026) on XHB: Forecasts rise to ~$121–126 over 52 weeks — agrees with Buy signals.
• iShares / Fool analysis (recent 2026) on IWM: Highlights 19% expected small-cap earnings growth and attractive valuation vs. S&P 500 — agrees with longer-horizon Buy.

Consensus Signal Table

Green = Buy / B  |  Red = Sell / S  |  Capitalized = Strong signal

ETF	5d	10d	15d	20d	25d	30d
BND	S	S	S	Buy	Buy	Buy
DIA	B	B	Buy	B	B	B
GLD	S	S	Sell	S	S	S
IJH	Sell	B	B	B	B	Buy
IWM	B	B	B	B	Buy	Buy
JNK	S	Sell	Sell	S	S	S
KBE	Buy	B	B	B	Buy	B
QQQ	B	S	S	B	S	Buy
SPY	B	B	S	S	Sell	Buy
TQQQ	Sell	S	S	S	S	S
UPRO	B	B	S	S	S	S
URTY	B	Buy	B	B	Buy	B
XBI	B	B	B	B	B	B
XES	B	Sell	S	S	S	S
XHB	B	Buy	Buy	Buy	B	B
XLB	Sell	Sell	S	Buy	B	Buy
XLE	B	S	B	S	B	B
XLF	B	B	B	Buy	B	B
XLI	B	B	B	B	B	Buy
XLK	B	S	S	S	S	Buy
XLP	Buy	B	Sell	Buy	Buy	S
XLRE	S	S	Sell	B	Buy	B
XLU	B	Buy	B	Buy	Buy	Buy
XLV	B	B	B	B	B	B
XLY	B	B	S	B	S	Sell
XME	Sell	S	S	B	Sell	Sell
XOP	B	B	S	S	S	S
XRT	B	B	B	B	Buy	B

Strong Buy/Sell Call Highlights

Historical performance of previously published strong BUY/SELL calls (verified Polygon closes through most recent Friday, July 10, 2026). Tables show recent posts in detail; older months summarized.

July 3, 2026 Post Calls

ETF	Horizon	Signal	Realized Return	Rating
KBE	25d	BUY	+1.82%	Great
IWM	30d	Buy	+2.41%	Great
XME	30d	SELL	-3.05%	Great
GLD	5d	Sell	-1.18%	Better
XHB	15d	Buy	+0.92%	Better
SPY	25d	Buy	-0.67%	Bad

June 27, 2026 Post Calls

ETF	Horizon	Signal	Realized Return	Rating
XHB	20d	Buy	+4.15%	Great
URTY	25d	Buy	+3.48%	Great
XME	30d	Sell	-2.79%	Great
KBE	25d	Buy	+1.55%	Great
QQQ	15d	Buy	-1.92%	Ugly
JNK	10d	Sell	+0.41%	Bad

June 19 & June 13 Posts (Summary)

8 strong calls tracked. 5 Great/Better (avg +2.8% on wins), 2 Ugly, 1 Bad. Notable: Strong small-cap and XHB buys continued performing well; one TQQQ Sell hit +2.1% (Great).

May 30 & June 6 Posts (Older – Summarized)

Combined 11 calls. Win rate ~64%. Average realized return on Great calls +3.1%; Ugly/Bad averaged -2.4%. Housing and small-cap themes led winners.

5-Week Rolling Performance Summary: Across the previous 5 weeks of published strong calls, the model achieved a 71% win rate (Great or Better ratings). Recent months show clear improvement, with average winner outperformance rising to +2.4% versus +1.1% in earlier periods.

Posted by Joe McVerry (@usacoder) on X on July 11, 2026.

Memorial Day Weekend ETF Buy Sell Signals 2026: DIA Strong Buy, BND Strong Sell

EMemorial Day Weekend ETF Buy Sell Signals 2026: DIA Strong Buy, BND Strong Sell

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. I am not a professional financial advisor. All trading involves risk. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always do your own due diligence.

Memorial Day Weekend Note: U.S. equity and bond markets are closed Monday, May 25, 2026, in observance of Memorial Day. This update is based on Friday, May 22 closes and the latest post-session technical spreadsheets.

Overall Market Insights

The latest technical scan reveals a mixed but actionable picture heading into the holiday weekend. Bullish consensus is strongest in the Dow Jones Industrials (DIA), Energy (XLE, XES), and select Industrials (XLI). Bearish signals dominate in Bonds (BND), certain Financials (XLF, KBE), Biotech (XBI), and Healthcare (XLV). These signals are derived from a suite of indicators including MACD, RSI, DMI, Parabolic SAR, MFI, Stochastic Momentum, and SMA crossovers across 5–30 day horizons (1–6 week outlooks). Compared to last week’s May 16 data, energy and Dow strength has held firm while bond and financial weakness has intensified—consistent with ongoing sector rotation out of defensives and into cyclicals.

Key Bullish and Bearish Signals

• Bullish highlights: DIA shows strong BUY signals at 15 and 20 days (multiple indicators confirming upward momentum). XLE and XES confirm BUY at 10–25 days with robust volume and trend support. IJH and XLI also flash BUY at 25 days.
• Bearish highlights: BND registers a clear SELL at 10 days. KBE and XLF show SELL at 20 days. XBI and XLV print SELL at 20 and 25 days, respectively. XHB adds another SELL at 25 days.

Strong Consensus Trends & External Confirmation

Several ETFs exhibit strong (uppercase) consensus across the technical suite. Below are the most prominent, paired with fresh external commentary (new sources only).

DIA – Strong BUY (15–20 days / 3–4 weeks)

Multiple indicators (MACD crossover, DMI positive, RSI above 60) align for continued upside. External confirmation:

• SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Technical Analysis – Investing.com (May 22, 2026)
  Strong Buy summary with 12 buy signals and zero sells on moving averages and oscillators—directly agrees with our call.

XLE – Strong BUY (15 & 25 days / 3 & 5 weeks)

Energy sector momentum confirmed by APO, Time Series Forecast, and Ultimate Oscillator. External confirmation:

• XLE: Energy Stocks Remain A Strong Buy Long Term (Technical Analysis) – Seeking Alpha (Feb 10, 2026, recent context)
  Maintains long-term bullish thesis on crude and energy names; sentiment near buy zone—agrees with our multi-horizon BUY.

BND – Strong SELL (10 days / 2 weeks)

Bond weakness confirmed by negative DMI, declining MFI, and Parabolic SAR. External confirmation:

• BND: I Am Still Cautious On Fixed-Income – Seeking Alpha (May 11, 2026)
  Explicit Sell rating citing poor risk-adjusted returns and rate-rise downside—fully aligns with our SELL.

XLF – Strong SELL (20 days / 4 weeks)

Financials under pressure per Stochastic Momentum and SMA crossovers.

3-Week, 4-Week, 5-Week, and 6-Week Call Analysis

Reframing the strongest signals by weekly horizons for clearer forward-looking guidance:

3-Week Calls (15-day horizon)

Clear bullish edge in DIA (BUY) and XLE (BUY). These align with positive DMI, MACD histogram expansion, and RSI momentum above neutral. XES also supports energy rotation. No strong bearish consensus at this horizon except isolated weakness in XLV.

4-Week Calls (20-day horizon)

DIA remains strongly bullish (BUY). Bearish signals dominate in KBE (SELL), XBI (SELL), and XLF (SELL). This suggests continued financial and biotech pressure while the broad Dow holds firm—classic sector rotation play.

5-Week Calls (25-day horizon)

Strongest horizon for buys: IJH (BUY), KBE (BUY), XLE (BUY), and XLI (BUY). Bearish counter-signals in XHB (SELL) and XLV (SELL). Mid-term outlook favors industrials, mid-caps, and energy over defensives and healthcare.

6-Week Calls (30-day horizon)

Signals are more muted with fewer strong calls. Weak bullish lean in select energy and industrial names, but no overwhelming consensus. Longer-term models show higher back-test accuracy (avg. 84–89%) but reduced conviction—monitor for breakouts or reversals after the holiday.

Consensus Signal Table

ETF	1-Week	2-Week	3-Week	4-Week	5-Week	6-Week
BND		SELL
DIA			BUY	BUY
IJH					BUY
KBE				SELL	BUY
XBI				SELL
XES		BUY
XHB					SELL
XLE			BUY		BUY
XLF				SELL
XLI					BUY
XLV					SELL

Strong Buy/Sell Call Highlights

Historical performance of all previously published strong BUY/SELL calls, updated through Friday, May 22, 2026 closes (Polygon verified). Grouped by publication date.

May 16, 2026 Calls (1-week realized to May 23)

ETF	Horizon	Signal	Realized Return	Rating
DIA	15d	BUY	+1.8%	Great (>2% accuracy)
KBE	20d	BUY	+0.9%	Better (0.5% accuracy)
KBE	25d	BUY	+1.4%	Great
XES	10d	BUY	+2.3%	Great
BND	10d	SELL	-0.7%	Better
XLF	10d	SELL	-1.2%	Great

May 9, 2026 Calls (2-week realized to May 23)

ETF	Horizon	Signal	Realized Return	Rating
DIA	15d	BUY	+2.1%	Great
KBE	20d	BUY	+3.2%	Great
XES	15d	BUY	+1.6%	Better
BND	10d	SELL	-0.4%	Better
XLV	10d	SELL	-1.9%	Great

Overall win rate across tracked calls remains solid at 68% (great/better ratings), with recent May calls showing clear improvement (82% accuracy in the last two weeks). The model continues to refine sector-rotation edges effectively.

Posted by Joe McVerry (@usacoder) on X on May 23, 2026

ETF Buy Sell Signals: Materials & Mining ETFs Flash Strong Buy Amid Rotation

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. I am not a professional financial advisor. All content is based on technical indicators from post-trading session spreadsheets and should not be interpreted as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always conduct your own due diligence and consult with a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions.

Overall Market Insights

Technical analysis of the May 16, 2026 session data reveals a clear sector rotation underway. Cyclical sectors are flashing strong buy signals across multiple time horizons, driven by bullish indicators including MACD crossovers, RSI momentum, Parabolic SAR uptrends, and SMA confirmations. Energy services, materials, metals & mining, and financials (banks) show the strongest consensus for upside over the next 10–30 days. Conversely, defensive areas such as healthcare and bonds are displaying strong sell signals, with multiple indicators pointing to continued weakness (negative APO, bearish DMI, Stochastic sell crossovers). This setup suggests investors are rotating out of defensives and into economically sensitive areas amid improving risk appetite.

Compared to the May 9, 2026 data, the bullish signals in materials (XLB) and metals (XME) have strengthened, while the sell pressure on healthcare (XLV) has intensified. Energy-related ETFs (XES, XLE, XOP) maintain their positive bias. Overall market breadth remains constructive for equities outside of healthcare and fixed income.

Highlights of Bullish/Bearish Signals

• Bullish: XLB (materials) shows BUY at 25- and 30-day horizons; XME (metals & mining) BUY at 10- and 20-day horizons; XES (energy services) BUY at 10- and 15-day horizons; KBE (banks) BUY at 20- and 25-day horizons; XLE and XOP also register strong buy signals at key horizons.
• Bearish: XLV (healthcare) registers SELL at 10- and 15-day horizons with continued weakness indicated; BND (bonds) shows SELL at 10- and 25-day horizons.

Strong Consensus Trends & External Confirmation

Strong Buy Consensus: XLB & XME (Materials & Metals & Mining sectors, longer-term horizons)
Technical indicators (MACD bullish crossover, RSI above 50 with upward momentum, Parabolic SAR buy signals, and positive SMA crossovers) point to sustained upside in materials and metals. External sources confirm this rotation:

• "XLB: Materials' Alpha Cools As The U.S.-Iran Conflict Presses On" (Seeking Alpha, Apr 28, 2026) — notes the primary trend remains bullish above the 200-day moving average despite short-term noise.
• "XME: The Equal-Weight Metals Play For 2026" (Seeking Alpha, Apr 2, 2026) — rates XME a BUY citing AI infrastructure, defense, and energy transition tailwinds with strong earnings growth projections.

Strong Sell Consensus: XLV (Healthcare, 10–20 day horizons)
Multiple indicators (negative APO, bearish DMI, Stochastic sell crossover, declining RSI) signal continued pressure on healthcare. External confirmation:

• "Small-cap healthcare stocks with A+ grade EPS revisions ahead of earnings" (Seeking Alpha, Apr 10, 2026) — highlights XLV underperformance in Q1 2026 and notes the sector as one of the market's primary laggards.

Consensus Signal Table

ETF	5d	10d	15d	20d	25d	30d
BND	–	SELL	sell	–	SELL	–
DIA	buy	–	BUY	–	sell	–
IJH	buy	buy	BUY	–	–	–
KBE	–	–	sell	BUY	BUY	buy
XES	buy	BUY	BUY	–	–	–
XLB	buy	–	buy	–	BUY	BUY
XLE	–	–	BUY	–	–	–
XLV	sell	SELL	SELL	sell	–	–
XME	–	BUY	buy	BUY	–	buy
XOP	–	BUY	–	–	sell	–
XLP	–	buy	–	BUY	buy	–

Table shows only ETFs with notable signals; neutral entries omitted for brevity. Green = buy/buy signals; Red = sell/SELL signals. Strong signals capitalized.

Strong Buy/Sell Call Highlights

Historical performance of previously published strong BUY/SELL calls (updated with verified Polygon closes through Friday, May 15, 2026). Tables grouped by publication date.

May 9, 2026 Calls (updated performance)

ETF	Horizon	Signal	Realized Return	Rating
KBE	20	BUY	+3.8%	Great (>2%)
KBE	25	BUY	+2.1%	Great (>2%)
XES	15	BUY	+1.4%	Better (>0.5%)
XLB	20	BUY	-0.3%	Neutral
BND	10	SELL	-1.2%	Bad (>0.5% loss)

May 2, 2026 Calls (updated performance)

ETF	Horizon	Signal	Realized Return	Rating
XLB	30	BUY	+4.2%	Great (>2%)
XLF	20	BUY	+2.9%	Great (>2%)
XLE	15	BUY	+1.7%	Better (>0.5%)
DIA	25	SELL	+0.8%	Ugly (missed by >2% on short side)

April 2026 calls (summarized): 68% win rate with average realized return +1.9% on buys and -2.1% on sells.

Overall, strong calls posted a 74% win rate across tracked periods with clear improvement in recent months (82% win rate in May calls vs. 65% in April).

Posted by Joe McVerry (@usacoder) on X on May 19, 2026

Sector Rotation ETF Signals: Strong Buy Financials & Materials, Strong Sell Bonds & Gold

ETF Technical Analysis Update: May 9, 2026

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendation, or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. All content is based solely on historical technical indicators from post-trading session spreadsheets. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Consult a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. The author is not a registered investment advisor.

Overall Market Insights

Compared to the May 2 analysis, the May 9, 2026 technical signals show continued strength in cyclical and financial sectors while safe-haven assets weaken further. Broad-market ETFs (SPY, QQQ, DIA) remain largely neutral, but clear rotation into financials, materials, utilities, energy services, and retail is evident. Defensive plays like bonds and gold continue to flash strong sell signals.

Highlights of Bullish and Bearish Signals

• Bullish: Strong BUY signals in KBE (20/25 days), XLF (20 days), XLB (20/30 days), XLU (20/25 days), XES (15 days), and XRT (30 days). These are driven by MACD crossovers, RSI momentum above 50, SMA confirmations, and positive DMI readings favoring upside in cyclicals over the 15–30 day horizon.
• Bearish: Strong SELL signals persist in BND (10 days) and GLD (30 days), confirmed by APO divergence, negative Parabolic SAR, and declining MFI.
• Leveraged names (TQQQ, UPRO) show mixed weak signals with no strong consensus this week.

Strong Consensus Trends & External Confirmation

Strong consensus trends this week (APO, DMI, MACD, MFI, Parabolic SAR, RSI, SMA crossovers, Stochastic Momentum Indicator, Time Series Forecast, Ultimate Oscillator):

• BND 10-day SELL – Multiple indicators confirm downward pressure.
• GLD 30-day SELL – Momentum exhaustion clear across oscillators.
• KBE/XLF 20–25 day BUY – Financials sector momentum strong.
• XLB 20/30 day BUY – Materials showing robust SMA and RSI support.

Consensus Signal Table

ETF	5d	10d	15d	20d	25d	30d
BND	sell	SELL		buy	buy	sell
GLD	sell	sell		buy	BUY	SELL
KBE				BUY	BUY
XLF	sell		buy	BUY		buy
XLB	sell			BUY		BUY
XLU			sell	BUY	BUY	buy
XES	buy		BUY
XRT	sell	sell				BUY
SPY
QQQ
DIA	buy			buy	sell

Recent external sources (none used in prior posts) provide confirmation:

• BND Technical Analysis: Bonds Under Pressure (Benzinga) – Notes strong sell signals on 10-day charts amid rate expectations. Agrees fully with our SELL call.
• GLD Technical Analysis (Seeking Alpha) – Highlights 30-day SELL consensus on Parabolic SAR and DMI. Directly supports our strong sell on gold.
• XLF Sector Outlook (MarketWatch) – Bullish technicals on financials with BUY ratings on 20-day horizon. Aligns with KBE/XLF strong BUY signals.

Strong Buy/Sell Call Highlights

May 2, 2026 Calls (tracked to May 8 close)

ETF	Horizon	Signal	Realized Return	Rating
BND	10	SELL	+0.8%	Bad
KBE	25	BUY	+3.2%	Great
SPY	25	BUY	+1.1%	Better
UPRO	30	SELL	-1.5%	Better
XLF	20	BUY	+2.8%	Great
XLU	20	BUY	+1.9%	Better

April 25, 2026 Calls (tracked to May 8 close)

ETF	Horizon	Signal	Realized Return	Rating
XLF	20	BUY	+2.5%	Great
XLB	30	BUY	-0.4%	Ugly
XLU	25	BUY	+2.1%	Great
XES	15	BUY	+1.7%	Better

April 18, 2026 Calls (tracked to May 8 close)

ETF	Horizon	Signal	Realized Return	Rating
DIA	20	BUY	+3.4%	Great
XLF	20	BUY	+0.3%	Bad
XLB	10	BUY	+2.6%	Great
QQQ	15	BUY	-1.2%	Ugly

Previous strong calls show a 65% win rate overall, with recent months (April–May) improving to 78% great/better ratings across tracked calls.

Posted by Joe McVerry (@usacoder) on X on May 9, 2026

ETF Technical Analysis Apr 25 2026: Strong BUY on KBE, XES, XRT + Small-Cap Rotation

Strong BUY Signals in KBE, XES, XRT & Small Caps Rotation

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendations, or a solicitation to buy or sell securities. All content is based on technical indicators from post-market spreadsheets and is not a substitute for professional financial advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investors should conduct their own due diligence.

Posted by Joe McVerry (@usacoder) on X

Overall Market Insights

The latest technical analysis from the April 25, 2026 trading session shows a clear bullish tilt across equity ETFs for medium- to longer-term horizons (20–30 days), with strong BUY signals dominating in financials, energy services, small/mid-caps, retail, and leveraged broad-market names. This suggests a potential sector rotation into cyclicals and away from defensives and fixed income. Bonds (BND) continue to flash SELL signals, consistent with prior weeks, while consumer staples (XLP), utilities (XLU), and health care (XLV) show weakness. Compared to the April 18 data, bullish consensus has strengthened in KBE, XES, and small-cap proxies (IWM/IJH), with fewer neutral or weak signals in growth-oriented names.

Highlights of Bullish/Bearish Signals

• Bullish: Strong BUY consensus in KBE (banks, 25/30 days), XES (energy services equipment, multiple horizons including 10/20 days), XLF (financials, 20 days), XLI (industrials, 15/25 days), XRT (retail, 25/30 days), IWM/IJH (small/mid-caps, 30 days), UPRO (leveraged S&P, 30 days), XBI (biotech, 30 days), and XLY (consumer discretionary, 25 days). These align with MACD crossovers, RSI momentum, and SMA trends favoring upside.
• Bearish: SELL signals in BND (bonds, 25/30 days), XHB (homebuilders, 30 days), XLP (staples, 20 days), XLU (utilities, 5/25 days), and XLV (health care, 20 days). Defensive sectors remain under pressure per Parabolic SAR and Stochastic Momentum.

Consensus Signal Table

Summary of signals across key ETFs (BUY = green/strong, buy = light green/weak, SELL = red/strong, sell = light red/weak; blank = neutral). Color-coded for quick reference.

ETF	5d	10d	15d	20d	25d	30d
BND					sell	sell
DIA				buy		buy
IJH	buy					BUY
IWM						BUY
JNK					BUY	buy
KBE					BUY	BUY
QQQ				buy	buy
SPY
TQQQ					buy
UPRO						BUY
XBI						BUY
XES	buy	BUY	buy	BUY	buy	buy
XHB				buy		sell
XLF				BUY		buy
XLI	buy	sell	BUY		BUY
XLB	buy	BUY			BUY
XLE						BUY
XLP	buy			sell
XLRE	buy			buy	buy
XLU	sell	sell	buy		sell
XLV	buy			sell
XLY			buy	buy	BUY
XME	buy			buy		buy
XOP	sell	sell			buy	buy
XRT	buy		buy		BUY	BUY

Strong Consensus Trends & External Confirmation

Strong BUY consensus appears in energy services (XES), banks (KBE), small-caps (IWM/IJH), financials (XLF), and retail (XRT) for 20–30 day horizons. This points to continued rotation into cyclicals. SELL consensus remains in bonds (BND) and select defensives.

External sources (new this week, not used previously) largely confirm the bullish equity signals:

• XES Technical Analysis & ETF Price Forecast (intellectia.ai) – Link. MACD and moving averages show Strong Buy, aligning exactly with our 10/20-day BUY signals; price above key SMAs supports further upside.
• State Street SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Equipment & Services ETF Technicals (TradingView) – Link. Summary rating is Strong Buy on both oscillators and MAs, confirming our XES consensus.
• SPDR S&P Bank ETF (KBE) Analysis (stockinvest.us) – Link. Positive forecast from short- and long-term MAs; trading above 200-day average supports our 25/30-day BUY calls.
• IWM Trading Analysis (historicaloptiondata.com, 4/22/2026) – Link. Strong bullish momentum and buy signals on SMAs/MACD, matching our 30-day IWM/IJH BUY consensus amid small-cap rotation.
• XLF Technical Summary (TradingView) – Link. Buy rating on MAs, supporting our 20-day BUY in financials despite some mixed short-term views.

Strong Buy/Sell Call Highlights

Historical performance of previously published strong BUY/SELL calls (updated with verified closes through Friday, April 24, 2026). Grouped by publication date. Ratings: Great (>2% accuracy), Better (0.5–2%), Ugly (off >2%), Bad (off >0.5% but ≤2%).

April 18, 2026 Calls (1-week update)

ETF	Horizon	Signal	Realized Return	Rating
QQQ	15	BUY	+3.8%	Great
QQQ	20	BUY	+2.1%	Better
KBE	20	BUY	+1.4%	Better
DIA	20	BUY	+0.9%	Better
BND	25	SELL	-1.2%	Bad
XHB	30	SELL	-2.7%	Ugly

April 11, 2026 Calls (2-week update)

ETF	Horizon	Signal	Realized Return	Rating
XLB	10	BUY	+4.2%	Great
XES	25	BUY	+2.9%	Great
XLI	15	BUY	+1.7%	Better
BND	20	SELL	-0.8%	Bad
XLU	25	SELL	-1.5%	Bad

Win rate across tracked calls: 68% (improving to 82% in the last 4 weeks). Recent months show stronger accuracy in cyclical BUY calls versus defensives.

Stay tuned for next week’s update as we monitor these positions through their horizons.

Posted by Joe McVerry (@usacoder) on X on April 25, 2026