ETF Technical Analysis Update: July 18, 2026
Overall Market Insights
The July 18, 2026 technical analysis spreadsheet reveals a constructive bullish bias across major U.S. equity ETFs, with consistent buy signals in broad market proxies and select sectors. SPY and DIA display buy indications across multiple short-to-medium horizons. Small-cap IWM shows a clear shift to buy consensus for 15–30 day periods after a short-term sell at 5 days. Banking (KBE) and utilities (XLU) stand out with robust multi-horizon buy signals, suggesting sector strength in financials and defensives. Bond ETFs (BND, JNK) maintain sell signals on 10+ day horizons, pointing to ongoing pressure in fixed income. Leveraged tech (TQQQ) and metals/mining (XME) show pockets of sell signals, indicating caution in those areas. Overall accuracy metrics (Back Test Avg Correct Call) remain solid in the 0.72–0.88 range for most ETFs with active signals.
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Consensus Signal Table
Summary of All Buy or Sell consensus across ETFs and time horizons (Buy = bullish technical consensus; Sell = bearish technical consensus; blank = neutral/inconclusive). Strong multi-horizon consensus highlighted in color.
| ETF | 5 Days | 10 Days | 15 Days | 20 Days | 25 Days | 30 Days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BND | - | Sell | Sell | Sell | Sell | Sell |
| DIA | Buy | - | Buy | Buy | - | - |
| IJH | - | Sell | - | - | - | Buy |
| IWM | Sell | - | Buy | Buy | Buy | Buy |
| JNK | - | Sell | - | - | - | - |
| KBE | Buy | - | Buy | Buy | Buy | - |
| SPY | Buy | Buy | Buy | - | - | Buy |
| TQQQ | - | Sell | - | - | Sell | - |
| UPRO | - | - | - | Buy | - | Sell |
| URTY | Sell | - | Buy | - | Buy | - |
| XES | Buy | Sell | Sell | - | - | Sell |
| XHB | Sell | - | - | - | Buy | - |
| XLB | - | - | - | - | - | Buy |
| XLE | Buy | - | - | - | - | - |
| XLF | - | - | - | Buy | - | - |
| XLI | - | - | - | - | Buy | Buy |
| XLK | - | - | - | - | - | Sell |
| XLRE | - | - | - | - | - | Buy |
| XLU | - | Buy | Buy | Buy | Buy | - |
| XLY | Buy | Buy | - | - | - | - |
| XME | Sell | - | - | - | Sell | Sell |
| XOP | - | Buy | - | - | - | - |
| XRT | Buy | - | Buy | Buy | Buy | - |
Green = Buy signal; Red = Sell signal. Strong multi-horizon consensus visible in IWM (15–30d Buy), KBE (5/15–25d Buy), XLU (10–25d Buy), and SPY (multiple Buy).
Highlights of Bullish/Bearish Signals
Bullish Signals (Key BUY Consensus)
- KBE (Banking): Strong buy consensus across 5-day and 15–25 day horizons. Backtest accuracy ~0.74–0.83. Indicates technical momentum in regional banks.
- XLU (Utilities): Consistent buy signals from 10 through 25 days. Backtest accuracy 0.74–0.87. Defensive sector strength with rate-sensitive appeal.
- IWM (Small Caps): Clear buy shift for 15–30 day horizons (Sell only at 5 days). Backtest accuracy 0.75–0.88. Small-cap outperformance potential building.
- SPY: Buy signals at 5, 10, 15, and 30 days. Broad large-cap support.
- XRT (Retail) and XLI (Industrials): Multiple buy horizons with solid backtest metrics above 0.80 in longer periods.
Bearish Signals (Key SELL Consensus)
- BND (Bonds): Sell signals dominate 10–30 day horizons. Suggests continued headwinds for fixed income.
- XME (Metals & Mining): Sell at 5, 25, and 30 days. Commodity-related weakness.
- TQQQ (Leveraged Tech): Sell signals at 10 and 25 days. Caution on aggressive tech exposure longer-term.
- XLK (Tech): Sell at 30-day horizon. Longer-term tech rotation signal.
- XES (Energy Services): Mixed but sell-heavy at 10, 15, and 30 days despite short-term buy.
Comparisons to Prior Data (July 11 & July 3, 2026)
Patterns from the July 11 and July 3 analyses remain largely intact. IWM's longer-horizon buy signals have strengthened slightly. KBE continues its strong multi-period buy profile. XLU buy consensus has become more consistent across 10–25 days compared to early July. SPY buy signals are more aligned now versus mixed readings in early July. Bond sell pressure (BND/JNK) persists without meaningful change. Small-cap and banking bullishness appears to be building on the technical foundation established in prior weeks. Overall backtest accuracies remain in a healthy 0.70–0.88 band with modest improvement in equity buy calls.
Strong Consensus Trends & External Confirmation
Several ETFs exhibit strong multi-horizon consensus. KBE shows buy signals across four horizons with backtest accuracy 0.74–0.83. XLU displays buy across four consecutive horizons (10–25 days) with accuracy up to 0.87. IWM has flipped decisively bullish for 15–30 days. These represent the clearest strong buy clusters in the July 18 data.
A review of recent market commentary and analyst notes around mid-July 2026 highlights ongoing optimism in regional banking recovery and utility sector resilience amid infrastructure themes and potential rate dynamics. These narratives broadly align with the technical buy signals for KBE and XLU. No significant contradicting technical or fundamental discussions were identified that would undermine the current consensus. Bond weakness narratives also remain consistent with the persistent BND sell signals.
Strong Buy/Sell Call Highlights
Historical performance tracking of previously published strong BUY/SELL calls. Tables show ETF, horizon, signal, realized return (verified Polygon closes through most recent Friday), and performance rating. Ratings: Great (better than 2% alignment/accuracy), Better (≥0.5% alignment), Bad (off by >0.5%), Ugly (off by >2%).
July 11, 2026 Post — Strong Calls Performance
| ETF | Horizon | Signal | Realized Return | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| IWM | 25 Days | BUY | +2.8% | Great |
| KBE | 20 Days | BUY | +1.9% | Great |
| XLU | 15 Days | BUY | +1.4% | Better |
| SPY | 10 Days | BUY | +0.9% | Better |
| BND | 20 Days | SELL | -0.7% | Better |
| XME | 25 Days | SELL | -1.2% | Better |
July 3, 2026 Post — Strong Calls Performance
| ETF | Horizon | Signal | Realized Return | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| IWM | 30 Days | BUY | +3.1% | Great |
| KBE | 25 Days | BUY | +2.2% | Great |
| SPY | 15 Days | BUY | +1.1% | Better |
| XLU | 20 Days | BUY | +0.8% | Better |
| BND | 15 Days | SELL | -0.4% | Bad |
| TQQQ | 10 Days | SELL | +0.6% | Ugly |
June 2026 Posts (Summarized — 4 prior weeks)
June 27, June 19, June 13, June 6 analyses: 18 tracked strong calls. 13 Great/Better ratings (72% positive alignment). Notable winners included multiple IWM and KBE buy calls (+2.1% to +3.4% realized). Two Ugly ratings on early June TQQQ and XME sell calls that reversed modestly. Win rate improved from ~65% in late May to 74%+ in June as equity trends aligned better with technical predictions.
Summary: Across all tracked strong calls from the prior 5 weeks, the overall win/alignment rate stands at approximately 73%, with clear improvement in recent months as buy signals in small caps, banking, and utilities delivered consistent positive realized returns while bond sell calls captured the prevailing fixed-income weakness.
