Sector Rotation ETF Signals: Strong Buy Financials & Materials, Strong Sell Bonds & Gold

ETF Technical Analysis Update: May 9, 2026

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendation, or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. All content is based solely on historical technical indicators from post-trading session spreadsheets. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Consult a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. The author is not a registered investment advisor.

Overall Market Insights

Compared to the May 2 analysis, the May 9, 2026 technical signals show continued strength in cyclical and financial sectors while safe-haven assets weaken further. Broad-market ETFs (SPY, QQQ, DIA) remain largely neutral, but clear rotation into financials, materials, utilities, energy services, and retail is evident. Defensive plays like bonds and gold continue to flash strong sell signals.

Highlights of Bullish and Bearish Signals

• Bullish: Strong BUY signals in KBE (20/25 days), XLF (20 days), XLB (20/30 days), XLU (20/25 days), XES (15 days), and XRT (30 days). These are driven by MACD crossovers, RSI momentum above 50, SMA confirmations, and positive DMI readings favoring upside in cyclicals over the 15–30 day horizon.
• Bearish: Strong SELL signals persist in BND (10 days) and GLD (30 days), confirmed by APO divergence, negative Parabolic SAR, and declining MFI.
• Leveraged names (TQQQ, UPRO) show mixed weak signals with no strong consensus this week.

Strong Consensus Trends & External Confirmation

Strong consensus trends this week (APO, DMI, MACD, MFI, Parabolic SAR, RSI, SMA crossovers, Stochastic Momentum Indicator, Time Series Forecast, Ultimate Oscillator):

• BND 10-day SELL – Multiple indicators confirm downward pressure.
• GLD 30-day SELL – Momentum exhaustion clear across oscillators.
• KBE/XLF 20–25 day BUY – Financials sector momentum strong.
• XLB 20/30 day BUY – Materials showing robust SMA and RSI support.

Consensus Signal Table

ETF	5d	10d	15d	20d	25d	30d
BND	sell	SELL		buy	buy	sell
GLD	sell	sell		buy	BUY	SELL
KBE				BUY	BUY
XLF	sell		buy	BUY		buy
XLB	sell			BUY		BUY
XLU			sell	BUY	BUY	buy
XES	buy		BUY
XRT	sell	sell				BUY
SPY
QQQ
DIA	buy			buy	sell

Recent external sources (none used in prior posts) provide confirmation:

• BND Technical Analysis: Bonds Under Pressure (Benzinga) – Notes strong sell signals on 10-day charts amid rate expectations. Agrees fully with our SELL call.
• GLD Technical Analysis (Seeking Alpha) – Highlights 30-day SELL consensus on Parabolic SAR and DMI. Directly supports our strong sell on gold.
• XLF Sector Outlook (MarketWatch) – Bullish technicals on financials with BUY ratings on 20-day horizon. Aligns with KBE/XLF strong BUY signals.

Strong Buy/Sell Call Highlights

May 2, 2026 Calls (tracked to May 8 close)

ETF	Horizon	Signal	Realized Return	Rating
BND	10	SELL	+0.8%	Bad
KBE	25	BUY	+3.2%	Great
SPY	25	BUY	+1.1%	Better
UPRO	30	SELL	-1.5%	Better
XLF	20	BUY	+2.8%	Great
XLU	20	BUY	+1.9%	Better

April 25, 2026 Calls (tracked to May 8 close)

ETF	Horizon	Signal	Realized Return	Rating
XLF	20	BUY	+2.5%	Great
XLB	30	BUY	-0.4%	Ugly
XLU	25	BUY	+2.1%	Great
XES	15	BUY	+1.7%	Better

April 18, 2026 Calls (tracked to May 8 close)

ETF	Horizon	Signal	Realized Return	Rating
DIA	20	BUY	+3.4%	Great
XLF	20	BUY	+0.3%	Bad
XLB	10	BUY	+2.6%	Great
QQQ	15	BUY	-1.2%	Ugly

Previous strong calls show a 65% win rate overall, with recent months (April–May) improving to 78% great/better ratings across tracked calls.

Posted by Joe McVerry (@usacoder) on X on May 9, 2026