Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. I am not a professional financial advisor. Technical signals can fail. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always do your own research and consider your risk tolerance before making any investment decisions.
Data for this post comes from the post-close analysis spreadsheet dated August 22, 2026 (signals based on the August 21 close). The model evaluates Absolute Price Oscillator (APO), Directional Movement Index (DMI), MACD, Money Flow Index (MFI), Parabolic SAR, RSI, SMA crossovers, Stochastic Momentum, Time Series Forecast, Ultimate Oscillator, and related tools across 5- to 30-day horizons. Focus stays on the “All Buy or Sell” column: “Buy” treated as strong BUY, “Sell” as strong SELL.
Overall Market Insights
Broad market ETFs show a tilt toward strength int 15-20 days. SPY, DIA, QQQ, and XLK have BUY signals between 5 and 30 days. Small-cap and regional bank exposure (IWM, KBE) are bullish on 15- to 30-day windows. Energy-related names (XOP, XES, XLE) remain buys on intermediate horizons. The Bond ETF (BND) and utilities (XLU) show the opposite: SELL pressure. Housing (XHB) is mixed—SELL at the extremes, BUY in the middle.
Compared with the August 15 reading, the bullish bias on technology and financials has broadened while the short-term energy BUY signals have thinned. BND SELL signals remain consistent across longer horizons.
Consensus Signal Table
Green = BUY (strong). Red = SELL (strong). Blank = neutral or inconclusive.
| ETF | 5d | 10d | 15d | 20d | 25d | 30d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BND | SELL | SELL | SELL | |||
| DIA | BUY | BUY | BUY | BUY | ||
| GLD | ||||||
| IJH | BUY | BUY | BUY | |||
| IWM | BUY | BUY | BUY | |||
| JNK | BUY | SELL | SELL | |||
| KBE | BUY | BUY | BUY | BUY | ||
| QQQ | BUY | BUY | BUY | |||
| SPY | BUY | BUY | BUY | BUY | ||
| TQQQ | BUY | BUY | ||||
| UPRO | BUY | BUY | BUY | |||
| URTY | BUY | |||||
| XBI | BUY | |||||
| XES | BUY | |||||
| XHB | SELL | BUY | BUY | BUY | SELL | |
| XHS | BUY | |||||
| XLB | BUY | BUY | ||||
| XLE | BUY | |||||
| XLF | BUY | BUY | ||||
| XLI | BUY | BUY | ||||
| XLK | BUY | BUY | BUY | BUY | BUY | |
| XLP | BUY | BUY | ||||
| XLRE | SELL | SELL | BUY | |||
| XLU | SELL | |||||
| XLV | BUY | |||||
| XLY | BUY | BUY | ||||
| XME | BUY | BUY | ||||
| XOP | BUY | BUY | BUY | BUY | ||
| XRT | SELL | BUY | BUY |
Strong Consensus Trends & External Confirmation
XLK (Technology Select Sector) – BUY signals on 5, 10, 20, 25, and 30 days. The multi-horizon cluster is the strongest equity signal this week. Recent coverage remains constructive on the sector’s intermediate path. AltIndex’s model (updated August 21) projects an 8% upside over six months for XLK, citing improving fundamental and technical scores.
KBE (SPDR S&P Bank) – BUY on 15, 20, 25, and 30 days. Regional-bank exposure continues to show intermediate strength after earlier volatility.
XOP (SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production) – BUY on 10, 15, 20, and 25 days. Technical still flag a bullish structure. Intellectia’s multi-indicator scan (August 20) labeled XOP a “Strong Buy,” with price above its 60- and 200-day averages despite an elevated RSI.
SPY / QQQ / DIA – Multiple BUY signals across mid time frame. Benzinga’s August 21 technical note highlighted SPY support near 765 and QQQ near 715 as key pivots; a hold above those levels keeps the short-term intact.
BND (Vanguard Total Bond Market) – SELL on 15, 25, and 30 days. Longer-horizon pressure on the aggregate bond ETF remains consistent with the prior week.
Sources used this week have not appeared in previous posts.
Strong Buy/Sell Call Highlights
Performance is measured from the signal-date close (Friday before each Saturday CSV) using Polygon daily closes through August 21, 2026. Horizons are trading days. Ratings: great = better than ±2% in the correct direction; better = ±0.5% to ±2%; ugly = worse than ±2% in the wrong direction; bad = ±0.5% to ±2% in the wrong direction.
July 18 signals (signal date July 17) – selected strong performers and misses
| ETF | Horizon | Signal | Realized Return | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UPRO | 20 | BUY | 12.64% | great |
| URTY | 15 | BUY | 6.60% | great |
| TQQQ | 10 | SELL | -4.31% | great |
| XOP | 10 | BUY | 4.24% | great |
| XME | 25 | SELL | 21.34% | ugly |
| XLY | 5 | BUY | -5.22% | ugly |
July 25 signals (signal date July 24) – selected
| ETF | Horizon | Signal | Realized Return | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UPRO | 20 | BUY | 9.99% | great |
| XLY | 10 | BUY | 9.55% | great |
| SPY | 15 | BUY | 5.06% | great |
| GLD | 15 | SELL | 7.95% | ugly |
| XOP | 10 | BUY | -4.40% | ugly |
August 1 signals (signal date July 31) – selected
| ETF | Horizon | Signal | Realized Return | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| XLE | 15 | BUY | 6.87% | great |
| XLB | 5 | BUY | 4.82% | great |
| GLD | 15 | SELL | 13.95% | ugly |
| URTY | 5 | SELL | 10.53% | ugly |
| XOP | 5 | BUY | -6.20% | ugly |
August 8 signals (signal date August 7) – selected
| ETF | Horizon | Signal | Realized Return | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| XOP | 10 | BUY | 13.91% | great |
| XES | 5 | BUY | 9.57% | great |
| TQQQ | 10 | SELL | -4.43% | great |
| XRT | 10 | BUY | -3.42% | ugly |
August 15 signals (signal date August 14) – all matured 5-day calls
| ETF | Horizon | Signal | Realized Return | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| XBI | 5 | BUY | 5.29% | great |
| XLB | 5 | BUY | 1.90% | better |
| TQQQ | 5 | BUY | -7.32% | ugly |
| XES | 5 | BUY | -2.63% | ugly |
| XHB | 5 | BUY | -2.31% | ugly |
| XLF | 5 | BUY | -1.17% | bad |
| DIA | 5 | BUY | -0.85% | bad |
Across 134 matured strong calls from the prior five weeks, great + better outcomes totaled 63 while ugly + bad totaled 50 (neutrals excluded from the win/loss ratio), for a roughly 56% directional hit rate; the most recent two weeks showed a higher proportion of great/better results relative to the mid-July cluster.
That is the full technical snapshot for the week ending August 21. Signals will be re-checked after next Friday’s close.
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