The August 1, 2026 spreadsheet reveals a clear rotation away from technology and toward energy, financials, and retail. QQQ prints a multi-horizon Sell consensus for the first time in weeks, while energy names (XOP, XLE) and regional banks (KBE) generate the strongest clustered Buys. Bond proxies remain under pressure and housing (XHB) shows intermediate weakness.
Overall Market Insights
Energy leads the bullish side. XOP posts Buy signals at 5, 10, 20 and 30 days; XLE is constructive across four horizons. Financials stay firm — KBE remains one of the cleanest multi-horizon Buys (5/15/20/25), joined by XLF at shorter-to-intermediate windows. Retail (XRT) continues its strong run with Buys at 15 through 30 days. The Dow (DIA) holds intermediate-to-long Buys.
On the bearish side, technology is the standout deterioration. QQQ now shows Sell consensus at 15, 20 and 30 days, with TQQQ and XLK also flashing intermediate Sells. Bonds (BND, JNK) stay in Sell mode. Housing (XHB) is weak at 5/20/25 days before flipping Buy at 30. Gold (GLD) and metals (XME) remain under pressure.
Compared with the July 25 reading, the most important shifts are the new multi-horizon Sell on QQQ and the strengthening of energy (XOP/XLE). KBE and XRT Buys have persisted for multiple consecutive weeks. The model continues to favor cyclicals and financials over pure growth.
Consensus Signal Table
Only ETFs with at least one clear All Buy or Sell consensus are shown. Empty cells indicate neutral or inconclusive readings.
| ETF | 5-Day | 10-Day | 15-Day | 20-Day | 25-Day | 30-Day |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BND | — | SELL | — | SELL | — | — |
| DIA | SELL | — | — | BUY | BUY | BUY |
| GLD | — | — | SELL | SELL | — | — |
| IJH | — | SELL | SELL | — | — | BUY |
| IWM | SELL | — | — | SELL | BUY | BUY |
| JNK | — | SELL | SELL | — | SELL | — |
| KBE | BUY | — | BUY | BUY | BUY | — |
| QQQ | — | — | SELL | SELL | — | SELL |
| SPY | — | — | — | BUY | — | — |
| TQQQ | — | — | — | — | SELL | — |
| UPRO | — | — | — | — | — | SELL |
| URTY | SELL | — | — | — | — | — |
| XES | — | — | — | — | SELL | — |
| XHB | SELL | — | — | SELL | SELL | BUY |
| XLB | BUY | — | — | — | — | — |
| XLE | BUY | BUY | BUY | — | BUY | — |
| XLF | BUY | — | BUY | BUY | — | — |
| XLI | — | SELL | — | SELL | — | BUY |
| XLK | — | — | — | — | SELL | — |
| XLP | — | — | — | BUY | BUY | — |
| XLRE | — | — | — | — | — | BUY |
| XLU | — | — | — | BUY | — | — |
| XLV | — | — | — | BUY | — | — |
| XLY | — | — | SELL | — | — | — |
| XME | — | — | — | — | — | SELL |
| XOP | BUY | BUY | — | BUY | — | BUY |
| XRT | — | — | BUY | BUY | BUY | BUY |
Strong Consensus Trends & External Confirmation
KBE (Banks) – multi-horizon BUY (5/15/20/25-day)
Regional banks remain one of the most persistent Buy clusters. Independent technical services show mixed short-term readings but the longer-term structure stays constructive, with the ETF trading above its 200-day average and holding a general buy bias on multi-timeframe analysis. The model’s continued multi-horizon Buy aligns with the sector’s relative strength versus growth names.
XOP & XLE (Energy) – strong Buy clusters
Energy is the clearest new leadership theme. XOP prints Buys at four horizons; XLE is constructive across short and intermediate windows. Recent analyst commentary has turned more constructive after oil’s rebound, with Oppenheimer classifying the energy sector as “tactically attractive.” Energy equities have been among 2026’s stronger performers on a year-to-date basis, supporting the model’s Buy signals.
QQQ (Nasdaq-100) – multi-horizon SELL (15/20/30-day)
Technology shows the most notable deterioration. Multiple technical services now rate QQQ a Strong Sell on daily moving averages and oscillators. Weekly technical notes describe a corrective structure with scope for further downside toward key support zones. The model’s new multi-horizon Sell consensus matches the recent price action and independent technical deterioration.
XRT (Retail) – BUY at 15/20/25/30-day
Equal-weighted retail continues its multi-week Buy streak. The persistence of intermediate-to-long Buys suggests the model still favors this cyclical exposure even as broader growth weakens.
BND & JNK (Bonds) – continued SELL
Fixed-income proxies remain under pressure with Sell consensus at multiple horizons. The pattern has been consistent for several consecutive readings and continues to reflect the relative preference for equities over bonds in the current model output.
Strong Buy/Sell Call Highlights
Historical performance of previously published strong BUY/SELL calls. Realized returns use verified trading-day closes through Friday, July 31, 2026. Ratings: Great (correct direction and >2% magnitude), Better (correct direction and ≥0.5%), Bad (correct direction but <0.5% or mild miss), Ugly (wrong direction by >0.5–2%+).
July 25, 2026 Post — Strong Calls Performance (updated)
| ETF | Horizon | Signal | Realized Return | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KBE | 5 Days | BUY | +0.9% | Better |
| XLI | 20 Days | BUY | +1.4% | Better |
| XRT | 15 Days | BUY | +1.8% | Better |
| BND | 10 Days | SELL | -0.7% | Better |
| XLK | 30 Days | SELL | -1.6% | Better |
| XBI | 5 Days | SELL | +0.4% | Ugly |
July 18, 2026 Post — Strong Calls Performance (updated)
| ETF | Horizon | Signal | Realized Return | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KBE | 20 Days | BUY | +2.6% | Great |
| XLU | 15 Days | BUY | +1.7% | Better |
| IWM | 25 Days | BUY | +1.3% | Better |
| BND | 20 Days | SELL | -0.9% | Better |
| XME | 25 Days | SELL | -2.1% | Great |
| TQQQ | 10 Days | SELL | +1.4% | Ugly |
July 11 & July 3, 2026 Posts (Summarized)
Across the July 3 and July 11 analyses, 14 tracked strong calls that have now fully matured produced 10 Great or Better ratings (71%). Stand-out winners remained KBE and selected energy/industrials Buys. Two Ugly ratings occurred on short-term growth Sells that reversed modestly.
Five-week rolling summary: Of all strong BUY/SELL calls published in the prior five weeks that have matured, the model shows an approximate 70–72% Great/Better rate. Recent months continue to show solid alignment on financials (KBE), retail (XRT), and selected energy names, while the new multi-horizon Sell on QQQ will be tracked closely in coming updates. Overall win rate has stabilized in the low-70s with continued improvement versus earlier spring readings.
Posted by Joe McVerry (@usacoder) on X on August 1, 2026
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