Regime Scanner Trend Report
1. Overall Market Pulse Evolution
| Date | Strong Bullish | Bullish | Neutral | Bearish | Strong Bearish | Overall Pulse |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-25 | 4 | 3 | 10 | 2 | 10 | BEARISH CONFLUENCE |
| 2026-07-28 | 2 | 9 | 9 | 3 | 6 | BEARISH CONFLUENCE |
| 2026-07-29 | 4 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 5 | MIXED / NO STRONG CONFLUENCE |
| 2026-07-30 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 7 | 6 | BEARISH CONFLUENCE |
Trend summary: The window opened with clear bearish confluence (10 Strong Bearish on 25 Jul). Pressure eased mid-week, producing a brief mixed / balanced reading on 29 Jul, before the bearish side reasserted on 30 Jul. Strong Bullish never expanded beyond four names, and the most consistent constructive regimes remained concentrated in Healthcare and Staples.
2. Key Regime Transitions
Broad Market (SPY / QQQ / IWM / DIA / leveraged)
- SPY: Neutral (25) → Strong Bearish (28) → Neutral (29–30)
- QQQ / TQQQ: Strong Bearish throughout; TQQQ briefly improved to Bearish on 29–30 but never left the negative half
- IWM / URTY: Strong Bearish → Neutral → Neutral / Bearish — no sustained recovery
- DIA: Neutral → Bullish → Bullish → Bearish (30)
- UPRO: Bearish on every session
Interpretation: Broad equity beta remained under pressure. Nasdaq and leveraged products never cleared the Strong Bearish / Bearish zone, while SPY oscillated around Neutral after a brief Strong Bearish print.
Healthcare & Staples (the durable constructive pair)
- XLV: Strong Bullish (25) → Bullish → Strong Bullish (29–30) — most consistent Strong Bullish name
- XLP: Neutral → Bullish → Strong Bullish (29–30)
- XHS: Neutral → Neutral → Strong Bullish → Bullish
Materials, Real Estate & Homebuilders
- XLB: Strong Bullish (25 & 28) → Bullish → Bullish — retained constructive bias
- XLRE: Strong Bullish (25) → Bullish → Bullish → Neutral (30) — gradual fading
- XHB: Bullish → Strong Bullish → Bullish → Bearish (30) — clear late-week deterioration
Energy, Tech & Cyclicals
- XLE / XOP: Volatile path — ended Neutral after spending time in Bearish / Strong Bearish
- XLK: Strong Bearish → Bearish → Strong Bearish → Strong Bearish — persistent weakness
- XME: Neutral → Bullish → Neutral → Strong Bearish (30)
- XRT: Neutral → Bullish → Neutral → Strong Bullish (30) — late improvement
Financials & Credit
- XLF: Neutral → Neutral → Bullish → Bullish — steady improvement
- JNK / BND / KBE: Mixed; JNK finished Strong Bearish while BND improved into Bullish
3. Score & Confidence Highlights (25 Jul vs 30 Jul)
| Symbol | 25 Jul Bias / Score | 30 Jul Bias / Score | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| XLV | Strong Bullish +0.56 | Strong Bullish +0.45 | Stable strength |
| XLP | Neutral +0.13 | Strong Bullish +0.45 | Strong improvement |
| XRT | Neutral –0.10 | Strong Bullish +0.45 | Strong improvement |
| XLF | Neutral +0.01 | Bullish +0.27 | Improving |
| XLB | Strong Bullish +0.65 | Bullish +0.22 | Fading but still constructive |
| XLRE | Strong Bullish +0.56 | Neutral +0.13 | Deterioration |
| XHB | Bullish +0.33 | Bearish –0.28 | Sharp deterioration |
| QQQ | Strong Bearish –0.51 | Strong Bearish –0.37 | Still weak |
| XLK | Strong Bearish –0.51 | Strong Bearish –0.51 | Persistent weakness |
| XME | Neutral –0.05 | Strong Bearish –0.51 | Sharp deterioration |
| SPY | Neutral –0.10 | Neutral –0.19 | Still neutral / soft |
4. High-Level Trend Conclusions
- Bearish bias persisted across the window — three of the four sessions carried a “Bearish Confluence” pulse. Only 29 Jul briefly reached a balanced Mixed reading.
- Healthcare (XLV) and Staples (XLP) were the clearest constructive anchors. Both finished the period in Strong Bullish and showed the most durable multi-indicator support.
- Technology and high-beta products remained the primary source of downside pressure. QQQ, TQQQ, and XLK spent the majority of the window in Strong Bearish or Bearish territory and never produced a sustained recovery signal.
- Homebuilders (XHB) and Metals & Mining (XME) deteriorated sharply late in the period, flipping from constructive or neutral readings into Bearish / Strong Bearish by 30 Jul.
- Current state (30 Jul) is a Bearish Confluence with a defensive tilt. Breadth is narrow: only three symbols carry Strong Bullish status (XLP, XLV, XRT). Risk assets and cyclicals remain under regime pressure while quality defensive names continue to hold constructive multi-indicator support.
Net 4-day trajectory: Bearish Confluence → Mild easing → Brief Mixed balance → Reassertion of Bearish Confluence (defensive leadership intact).
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