Bullish Signals Dominate Small Caps and Retail: ETF Update Feb 11, 2026

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. I am not a professional financial advisor. Investors should conduct their own research and consult with qualified professionals before making any investment decisions.

In today's update, we dive into the latest technical signals for key ETFs, drawing from a range of indicators including MACD, RSI, Parabolic SAR, and SMA crossovers. Overall, the market shows bullish momentum in small-cap and retail sectors over mid- to long-term horizons, with some bearish pressures in bonds and technology. Compared to February 10 data, we've seen shifts such as SPY losing its strong sell signal at 15 days and gaining buys at 20-30 days, indicating improving sentiment. Highlights include strong buy consensus in small caps (IWM, URTY) and retail (XRT), potentially driven by economic recovery signals, while tech faces headwinds from overvaluation concerns.

Key Findings and Explanations

Bullish signals dominate 20-30 day horizons for DIA, SPY, and KBE, supported by positive MACD crossovers and RSI rebounding from neutral levels, suggesting upward trends amid improving economic data. Bearish short-term sells in BND and XLV reflect bond yield pressures and healthcare volatility, with DMI indicating downward momentum. Gold (GLD) shows early buy signals via Stochastic Oscillator reversals, hinting at safe-haven demand.

For strong consensus trends (BUY or SELL), we've cross-referenced with recent external analyses:

Strong Buy for IWM (30 days)

Indicators like Ultimate Oscillator and Time Series Forecast point to sustained upside. Recent sources:

• iShares Russell 2000 ETF (Derivatives) (IWM) price Prediction - Bitget: Agrees with bullish forecast, predicting $268 in March 2026 (up from current ~$266), citing monthly growth trends.
• IWM - Ishares Russell 2000 Etf Stock Price Forecast 2026, 2027, 2030 to 2050 - StockScan: Disagrees, forecasting average $237 (down ~10%), based on analyst estimates varying from $196 to $278.

Strong Buy for KBE (20 days)

MFI and APO suggest buying pressure building. Recent sources:

• Spdr S&p Bank Etf ETF Price Forecast. Should You Buy KBE? - StockInvest.us: Agrees, expecting 13.92% rise in 3 months, with positive moving average signals.
• Banking ETF (KBE) Hits New 52-Week High - Zacks.com: Agrees, highlighting rally on 2026 rate-cut hopes, Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy).

Strong Buy for KBE (25 days)

Similar to 20 days, with Stochastic Momentum indicating acceleration. Recent sources:

• Spdr S&p Bank Etf ETF Price Forecast. Should You Buy KBE? - StockInvest.us: Agrees, projecting up to $76.23 in 3 months from current levels.
• KBE News Today | Why did SPDR S&P Bank ETF go up today? - MarketBeat: Agrees, noting huge potential in 2026 due to regulatory changes.

Strong Buy for XLB (10 days)

RSI and DMI show short-term strength. Recent sources:

• State Street®MatSelSectSPDR®ETF (XLB) ETF Forecast, Price Targets and Analysts Predictions - Tickeron.com: Neutral, with bearish RSI exit from overbought, potentially contradicting short-term buy.
• Materials Select Sector SPDR ETF - XLB Stock Price - Investing.com: Agrees mildly, with materials leading early 2026 gains (up 15% YTD).

Strong Sell for XLK (30 days)

Bearish MACD and overbought conditions via MFI. Recent sources:

• State Street Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF Trade Ideas — AMEX:XLK - TradingView: Agrees with bearish, citing head-and-shoulders pattern signaling reversal.
• XLK Trading Analysis - 02/06/2026 12:09 PM | Historical Option Data: Agrees, projecting $138.50-$145.50 (neutral-bearish from current ~$142), with bearish technicals.

Strong Buy for XRT (25 days)

SMA crossovers and Parabolic SAR flips indicate reversal. Recent sources:

• Spdr S&p Retail Etf ETF Price Forecast. Should You Buy XRT? - StockInvest.us: Agrees, expecting 20.04% rise in 3 months with positive signals.
• XRT News Today | Why did SPDR S&P Retail ETF go up today? - MarketBeat: Agrees, highlighting resilient retail and $1T holiday season potential.

Strong Buy for URTY (25 days)

Leveraged small-cap play with bullish Money Flow. Recent sources:

• URTY stock forecast, quote, news & analysis - Tickeron: Agrees, with 90% odds of upward trend, crossing 50-day MA.
• URTY - Proshares Ultrapro Russell 2000 3 X Shares Stock Price Forecast 2026, 2027, 2030 to 2050 - StockScan: Mixed, forecasting average $54 (down from ~$66), contradicting buy.

Consensus Signal Table

ETF	5 days	10 days	15 days	20 days	25 days	30 days
BND				sell	sell	buy
DIA			buy	buy	buy	buy
GLD	buy
IJH						buy
IWM	sell					BUY
JNK	sell	sell	sell			buy
KBE			buy	BUY	BUY	buy
SPY				buy	buy	buy
UPRO	sell				buy	buy
URTY	sell		buy		BUY
XBI				buy		buy
XHB	buy			buy	buy
XLB		BUY
XLE		buy
XLF		sell
XLK						SELL
XLP	buy
XLRE	buy
XLV	sell				buy	buy
XLY	sell				sell	sell
XME	sell			buy		buy
XOP		buy			buy
XRT		sell		buy	BUY

Stay tuned for more updates as we track these trends. Follow for daily insights!

Posted by Joe McVerry (@joe_mcverry) on X on February 11, 2026.