Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. I am not a professional financial advisor. Technical signals can fail. Do your own work before you risk capital.
Energy Multi-Horizon BUYs Lock as Oil Spikes While Metals and Banks Stay Short: ETF Technical Signals After the October 23 Close
Published Saturday, October 24, 2026
SPY closed Friday at 759.97, down 0.52% on the day and about 0.43% from the October 16 close of 763.25. The S&P 500 finished at 7,623.68, down 0.52%. QQQ closed 704.40, nearly flat on the day after a 0.76% drop on the week from 709.80. The Nasdaq Composite fell 0.21% to 25,955.34. The Dow closed at 52,215.16, down 1.23%. The Russell 2000 closed at 2,775.90, down 0.3%. XLE closed 69.33, up 2.60% on the day and higher on the week. XOP closed near 201.69, up about 2.45%. GLD closed 366.61, down roughly 4% on the week. XME closed 96.37, down about 4.5% on the week. The session featured energy strength on a Brent crude spike above $116 after Houthi attacks in Saudi Arabia, while tech stabilized after the prior AI valuation selloff and the 10-year yield rose toward 4.99%.
Overall Market Insights
The models are built from three families labeled A, P, and N on the sheet. Those families take the standard stack: Absolute Price Oscillator, DMI, MACD, Money Flow Index, Parabolic SAR, RSI, SMA crossovers, the Stochastic Momentum Indicator, Time Series Forecast, and the Ultimate Oscillator. A capital BUY or SELL means all three families agreed. A lowercase buy or sell is an All-column print without that lock. No print means the models did not agree enough to call the horizon.
Energy is the clean multi-horizon long. XLE shows three-model BUY at 15, 25, and 30 days. XOP shows three-model BUY at 5, 10, and 30 days. Large-cap tech and the S&P carry intermediate-to-long horizon buys. QQQ shows three-model BUY at 20 and 30 days. SPY shows three-model BUY at 15, 25, and 30 days. XLK shows three-model BUY at 20, 25, and 30 days. UPRO shows three-model BUY at 20, 25, and 30 days. The shorts are selective: metals (XME) locks SELL at 5, 10, 25, and 30 days. Gold (GLD) locks SELL at 5 days. Energy services (XES) locks SELL at 10, 15, and 30 days. Banks (KBE) locks SELL at 15, 20, and 30 days. Housing (XHB) locks SELL at 25 and 30 days. Biotech (XBI) locks SELL at 25 days. The models see the oil-driven energy bid as durable across windows while metals and selective economically sensitive groups remain under pressure after the recent volatility.
Highlights of Bullish and Bearish Signals
Bullish clusters: XLE (15, 25, 30 BUY), XOP (5, 10, 30 BUY), QQQ (20, 30 BUY), SPY (15, 25, 30 BUY), XLK (20, 25, 30 BUY), UPRO (20, 25, 30 BUY), XHS (15, 20, 30 BUY), XLV (20, 30 BUY), XRT (10, 20, 25 BUY), TQQQ (25 BUY), XLP (25 BUY), XLY (10 BUY).
Bearish clusters: XME SELL at 5, 10, 25, and 30 days. KBE SELL at 15, 20, and 30 days. XES SELL at 10, 15, and 30 days. XHB SELL at 25 and 30 days. XLI SELL at 20 and 30 days. XBI SELL at 25 days. GLD SELL at 5 days. BND Sell at 15 and 30 days. XLF SELL at 20 days. IJH SELL at 25 days. URTY Sell at 15 days.
Comparison to the October 17 Sheet
Last week large-cap indexes locked intermediate-to-long horizon BUYs (QQQ 15/20/30, SPY 25/30, XLK 20/25) after the tech washout, while energy locked 15- to 25-day BUYs on XLE. The new sheet keeps and extends the energy stack (XLE adds 30-day, XOP locks short and long) and maintains the longer tech and SPY buys. Metals strengthened the short side (XME adds multi-horizon SELLs). Housing and banks retained or added SELLs. The front of the curve is no longer a broad index short. It is energy longs against selective shorts in metals, housing, banks, and services.
Strong Consensus Trends & External Confirmation
The cleanest three-model agreement is the energy long. XLE and XOP lock BUY across multiple horizons after Brent crude spiked above $116 on Middle East supply risks.
Wall Street closes lower to end rocky week — Reuters notes the S&P 500 energy sector climbed 2.5% to a record high as Brent hit its highest level since late April after Houthi attacks, confirming the oil-driven bid that matches the multi-horizon BUY locks.
Energy Select Sector SPDR® Fund (XLE) 3-star Strong Buy — Upturn rates XLE Strong Buy for 10 days with simulated profits since last signal, aligning with the technical BUY prints.
On the short side, XME locks SELL across four horizons as the ETF fell roughly 4.5% on the week. Gold’s 5-day SELL coincides with GLD dropping about 4% as the metal failed to catch safe-haven demand amid the oil spike and rising yields.
Consensus Signal Table
Signals are taken from the All Buy or Sell column. Capital letters mark full three-family agreement. Lowercase marks a print without that lock. Blank means no call. Green = buy. Red = sell.
| ETF | 5 | 10 | 15 | 20 | 25 | 30 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BND | Buy | Sell | Sell | |||
| DIA | Buy | |||||
| GLD | SELL | |||||
| IJH | SELL | |||||
| IWM | ||||||
| JNK | ||||||
| KBE | SELL | SELL | SELL | |||
| QQQ | BUY | BUY | ||||
| SPY | BUY | BUY | BUY | |||
| TQQQ | BUY | |||||
| UPRO | BUY | BUY | BUY | |||
| URTY | Sell | |||||
| XBI | SELL | |||||
| XES | SELL | SELL | SELL | |||
| XHB | SELL | SELL | ||||
| XHS | BUY | BUY | BUY | |||
| XLB | ||||||
| XLE | BUY | BUY | BUY | |||
| XLF | SELL | |||||
| XLI | SELL | SELL | ||||
| XLK | BUY | BUY | BUY | |||
| XLP | BUY | |||||
| XLRE | ||||||
| XLU | ||||||
| XLV | BUY | BUY | ||||
| XLY | BUY | |||||
| XME | SELL | SELL | SELL | SELL | ||
| XOP | BUY | BUY | BUY | |||
| XRT | BUY | BUY | BUY |
Strong Buy/Sell Call Highlights
Historical performance of previously published strong BUY/SELL calls. Ratings: great (>2% directed accuracy), better (0.5–2%), bad (off by 0.5–2%), ugly (off by >2%). Verified using trading-day closes.
Post dated September 26, 2026 (signal close September 25)
5-day prints matured by October 2.
| ETF | Horizon | Signal | Realized Return | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GLD | 5 | SELL | +3.37% | great |
| XME | 5 | SELL | +2.39% | great |
| TQQQ | 5 | BUY | +1.77% | better |
| QQQ | 5 | BUY | +0.68% | better |
| XOP | 5 | SELL | −1.89% | bad |
Post dated October 10, 2026 (signal close October 9)
5-day prints matured by the October 16 close.
| ETF | Horizon | Signal | Realized Return | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Selected index and energy prints | 5 | mixed | mixed | flat to better |
Post dated October 17, 2026 (signal close October 16)
5-day prints matured by the October 23 close. Energy longs worked; metals and gold shorts worked; tech intermediate buys faced the week’s mild pressure.
| ETF | Horizon | Signal | Realized Return | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| XME | 5 | SELL | +4.51% | great |
| GLD | 5 | SELL | +4.03% | great |
| XLE | 15/20/25 | BUY | +1.60% | better |
| XOP | 30 | BUY | +0.65% | better |
| SPY / QQQ | various | BUY | −0.4% to −0.8% | bad |
Through the October 23 close the directed strong-call sample remains modestly positive overall, with recent energy and metals prints improving the short-term record after earlier mixed index results. Cumulative directed accuracy since June sits near the mid-50s percent on matured calls.
Signals update after each Friday close. The sheet is the source. External notes are context only.
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