Saturday, February 14, 2026

Riding the Wave: ETF Technical Breakdown – February 14 Edition

Riding the Wave: ETF Technical Breakdown – February 14 Edition

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Investors should consult with a professional advisor before making any investment decisions.

Overall Market Insights

The latest technical analysis of major ETFs reveals a predominantly bullish outlook across various sectors and time horizons. Key indicators such as the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), Relative Strength Index (RSI), and Simple Moving Average (SMA) crossovers suggest sustained upward momentum in large-cap indices and select sectors like industrials, healthcare, and retail. Compared to prior data from February 13, signals remain largely consistent, with strengthening buys in areas like small-caps and banks, indicating resilience amid potential economic shifts. However, some short-term sells in healthcare and materials warrant caution for near-term volatility.

Highlights of Bullish/Bearish Signals

  • Bullish Signals: Strong buys persist in broad market ETFs like SPY and DIA over medium-term horizons (15-30 days), driven by positive DMI trends and Ultimate Oscillator readings above 50. Sector-specific strength in XLI (industrials) and XLV (healthcare) points to cyclical recovery, supported by Parabolic SAR indicating uptrends.
  • Bearish Signals: Short-term sells in XRT (retail) for 5-10 days, possibly due to overbought RSI levels, and neutral stances in utilities and real estate suggest defensive sectors may lag.
  • Comparisons to Prior Data: From February 13, DIA's 30-day signal upgraded from buy to BUY, reflecting improved Stochastic Momentum. XRT's long-term BUYs remain unchanged, but short-term sells eased slightly from prior weeks.

Strong Consensus Trends and External Confirmations

For ETFs showing strong BUY signals, we've reviewed recent articles to validate or challenge our analysis:

DIA (Strong BUY for 15, 25, 30 days)

  • Title: SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average Etf ETF Price Forecast. Should You Buy DIA? - StockInvest.us
    Description: The analysis suggests a 6.71% rise over 3 months, aligning with our bullish signal based on MACD crossovers, though it notes short-term sell signals that contradict immediate upside.
  • Title: 6 ETF Predictions for 2026 - Zacks.com
    Description: Predicts DIA to benefit from market gains, agreeing with our BUY consensus due to expected Dow outperformance over tech-heavy indices.

SPY (Strong BUY for 15, 20, 25 days)

  • Title: Spdr S&p 500 Etf ETF Price Forecast. Should You Buy SPY? - StockInvest.us
    Description: Forecasts a 3.44% rise, supporting our analysis via positive APO trends, but downgrades to sell, disagreeing on short-term weakness.
  • Title: 6 ETF Investing Predictions for 2026 - Morningstar
    Description: Expects continued SPY growth, confirming our BUY signals driven by Time Series Forecast indicating upward trajectories.

XRT (Strong BUY for 25, 30 days)

  • Title: XRT: I Underestimated The Retail Boom This Year (Rating Upgrade) - Seeking Alpha
    Description: Upgrades XRT rating due to resilient consumer spending, agreeing with our long-term BUY based on MFI showing capital inflows.
  • Title: SPDR S&P Retail ETF - SSGA
    Description: Highlights positive YTD performance, supporting our consensus via RSI recovery from oversold levels.

Consensus Signal Table

Symbol5 Days10 Days15 Days20 Days25 Days30 Days
BNDbuybuy
DIAbuyBUYbuyBUYBUY
GLDbuy
IJHbuybuy
IWMbuybuybuyBUY
JNKsellsellbuy
KBEbuyBUYBUYbuy
QQQ
SPYBUYBUYBUY
TQQQsell
UPRO
URTYbuyBUYBUY
XBIbuybuy
XES
XHBBUYbuy
XHSsellsell
XLBBUY
XLE
XLFsell
XLIBUY
XLKsell
XLP
XLRE
XLU
XLVsellsellBUY
XLYsell
XMEsellsellbuybuy
XOPbuybuy
XRTsellsellBUYBUY

Posted by Joe McVerry (@joe_mcverry) on X on February 14, 2026.

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