Thursday, January 22, 2026

ETF Trend Watch: Broad Market Strengthens While Some Areas Pause

ETF Technical Update - January 22, 2026: SPY Hits Strong Buy as Broad Market Strength Holds

ETF Technical Update – January 22, 2026: SPY Hits Strong Buy as Broad Market Strength Holds

Hi everyone, Joe here with the latest daily scan of my favorite ETFs using a basket of classic technical indicators (MACD, RSI, Stochastic, Money Flow, Parabolic SAR, and others). These are the same tools I’ve been tracking for years as a hobbyist – nothing fancy, just trying to spot trends early.

Today’s big headline: the SPY (S&P 500 ETF) strengthened to a STRONG BUY overall, with especially bullish readings in the longer 20-30 day windows. That’s an upgrade from yesterday. The broader market ETFs (DIA, QQQ, IJH, etc.) are still mostly positive, though a few small-cap and sector readings cooled a bit.

Bonds remain neutral, gold shows a mild positive tilt, and many individual sectors are mixed or neutral. Leveraged ETFs (TQQQ, UPRO, URTY) are mostly neutral – a reminder that leverage amplifies everything, including sideways moves.

Consensus Signal Table – January 22, 2026

Short-term = 5-15 days out
Long-term = 20-30 days out
Overall = all six time frames combined
Avg Historical Accuracy = simple average of past correct calls for that ETF across all periods.

ETF Short-Term (5-15 days) Long-Term (20-30 days) Overall Avg Back-Testig Accuracy
SPYBUYSTRONG BUYSTRONG BUY82.6%
DIABUYweak buyBUY80.1%
QQQNEUTRALBUYBUY79.8%
IJHweak buyweak buyBUY78.5%
JNKNEUTRALBUYBUY74.8%
XESweak buyweak buyBUY74.5%
XHBweak buyBUYBUY78.6%
XHSNEUTRALBUYBUY71.2%
XLPweak buyweak buyBUY77.3%
XRTweak buyBUYBUY72.9%
GLDweak buyweak buyweak buy76.4%
IWMweak buyweak buyweak buy79.8%
KBENEUTRALweak buyweak buy73.9%
UPRONEUTRALweak buyweak buy79.1%
URTYNEUTRALweak buyweak buy76.4%
XBINEUTRALweak buyweak buy76.6%
XLEweak buyNEUTRALweak buy75.6%
XLFNEUTRALweak buyweak buy75.6%
XLIweak buyNEUTRALweak buy79.1%
XLVNEUTRALweak buyweak buy80.9%
XLYweak buyNEUTRALweak buy76.0%
BNDweak buyweak sellNEUTRAL76.3%
TQQQNEUTRALNEUTRALNEUTRAL75.3%
XLBNEUTRALNEUTRALNEUTRAL79.2%
XLKNEUTRALNEUTRALNEUTRAL77.7%
XLRENEUTRALNEUTRALNEUTRAL75.5%
XLUNEUTRALNEUTRALNEUTRAL79.2%
XMENEUTRALNEUTRALNEUTRAL78.4%
XOPweak buyweak sellNEUTRAL76.0%

Key Changes from Yesterday (January 21)

  • SPY upgraded to STRONG BUY overall – very encouraging.
  • QQQ slipped from STRONG BUY to BUY (short-term cooled).
  • IWM, KBE, XBI, XLF, XLV softened slightly but still lean positive or neutral.
  • XLB and XLRE improved from weak sell to neutral.
  • XOP moved from BUY to neutral.

As always, these are just mechanical readings from my indicator suite – no guarantees. The historical accuracy numbers (70-83% range) are back-tested on past data, but markets can turn quickly. I’m not a financial advisor; this is purely for educational fun.

See you tomorrow with the next update!

– Joe

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