Regime Scanner Trend Report
1. Overall Market Pulse Evolution
| Date | Strong Bullish | Bullish | Neutral | Bearish | Strong Bearish | Overall Pulse |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-18 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 3 | 10 | BEARISH CONFLUENCE |
| 2026-07-21 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 15 | BEARISH CONFLUENCE (peak) |
| 2026-07-22 | 6 | 3 | 13 | 1 | 6 | MIXED / NO STRONG CONFLUENCE |
| 2026-07-23 | 4 | 6 | 11 | 4 | 4 | MIXED / NO STRONG CONFLUENCE |
Trend summary: Clear shift from strong bearish dominance (18–21 Jul) into a more balanced / mixed regime by 22–23 Jul. Bearish confluence peaked on 21 Jul (15 Strong Bearish), then collapsed sharply. Bullish and Strong Bullish counts recovered, especially in energy and selected growth/tech names.
2. Key Regime Transitions
Broad Market (SPY / QQQ / IWM / DIA / leveraged)
- SPY: Strong Bearish (18 & 21) → Neutral (22 & 23)
- QQQ / TQQQ: Strong Bearish → Neutral → Strong Bullish (23)
- IWM / URTY: Strong Bearish → Strong Bullish (22) → Neutral (23)
- DIA: Strong Bearish → Bearish → Neutral
- UPRO: Strong Bearish → Neutral
Interpretation: Risk assets bottomed mid-week and staged a meaningful recovery into Thursday, with Nasdaq/tech leading the rebound.
Energy (XLE / XOP / XES)
- Consistently one of the strongest groups.
- XLE stayed Bullish throughout.
- XOP moved Bullish → Strong Bullish → Bullish.
- XES flipped from Neutral/Bearish into Strong Bullish.
Financials & Rate-sensitive
- XLF: Persistent Strong Bearish (all 4 days).
- KBE: Bullish → Strong Bearish → Neutral → Strong Bearish (weak).
- XLRE: Strong Bullish (18) → Neutral → Strong Bearish (23) — notable deterioration.
- XLU: Strong Bearish → Bullish (23) — utility recovery.
Other notables
- XLK (Tech): Bearish → Neutral → Strong Bullish (held into 23).
- XRT (Retail): Strong Bullish → Neutral → Strong Bearish → Neutral (volatile and weak).
- GLD: Neutral → Bullish (held).
- XHB (Homebuilders): Collapsed into Strong Bearish then recovered to Neutral.
3. Score & Confidence Highlights (Latest vs 4 days ago)
| Symbol | 18 Jul Bias / Score | 23 Jul Bias / Score | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| QQQ | Strong Bearish –0.51 | Strong Bullish +0.36 | Strong recovery |
| TQQQ | Strong Bearish –0.51 | Strong Bullish +0.45 | Strong recovery |
| XLK | Bearish –0.28 | Strong Bullish +0.36 | Strong recovery |
| XES | Neutral +0.15 | Strong Bullish +0.56 | Strong recovery |
| XLE | Neutral +0.19 | Bullish +0.42 | Improving |
| XOP | Bullish +0.33 | Bullish +0.33 | Stable strength |
| XLF | Strong Bearish –0.37 | Strong Bearish –0.33 | Still weak |
| XLRE | Strong Bullish +0.45 | Strong Bearish –0.31 | Sharp deterioration |
| SPY | Strong Bearish –0.65 | Neutral +0.04 | Recovery to neutral |
4. High-Level Trend Conclusions
- Bearish climax occurred on 21 Jul — maximum Strong Bearish count and weakest overall pulse.
- Rapid regime repair began 22 Jul — Strong Bullish count jumped from 0 → 6, Neutral expanded, and broad indices (especially Nasdaq) flipped higher.
- Energy remains the most consistent bullish sector across the entire window.
- Financials (XLF) and Real Estate (XLRE) are the clear laggards — XLRE’s flip from Strong Bullish to Strong Bearish is the most dramatic single-symbol deterioration.
- Current state (23 Jul) is Mixed with a mild bullish tilt in growth/tech and energy, while value/financials and some defensive areas remain soft. No broad bullish or bearish confluence exists.
Net 4-day trajectory: From Bearish Confluence → Peak Bearish → Mixed recovery → Still Mixed (but with improving breadth in growth and energy).
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