Tech vs. Value: Decoding ETF Signals in a Shifting Market

Disclaimer: The analyses provided in this blog post are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial advice. I am not a professional financial advisor. Readers should conduct their own research and consult with a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions.

Overall Market Insights

As we wrap up February 2026, the ETF market presents a mixed picture with notable sector divergences. Technical indicators such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI), Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), and Simple Moving Average (SMA) crossovers suggest caution in technology-heavy sectors, while healthcare and select financials show resilience. The broader market appears to be rotating towards defensive plays amid economic uncertainties, with gold emerging as a safe-haven asset in the short term.

Highlights of Bullish and Bearish Signals

Bullish signals are prominent in mid-cap (IJH) and banking (KBE) ETFs across medium to longer horizons, potentially driven by improving economic indicators and favorable interest rate expectations. Healthcare (XLV) and biotech (XBI) also show strong buy signals in the 30-day outlook, supported by robust pipeline developments and M&A activity. On the bearish side, technology (QQQ, XLK) and consumer discretionary (XLY, XRT) ETFs exhibit strong sell signals, reflecting overvaluation concerns and potential slowdowns in consumer spending.

Comparisons to Prior Data

Compared to the previous update on February 27, several shifts are evident. For instance, DIA has lost its buy signals in shorter horizons, indicating reduced momentum in industrials. SPY has gained a buy in the 25-day period, suggesting stabilizing large-cap sentiment. QQQ's strong sells persist, but XRT's 30-day SELL remains unchanged, highlighting ongoing retail sector pressures. These changes underscore a market in transition, with rotations from growth to value sectors.

Explanations Tied to Technical Indicators

The signals are derived from a combination of indicators including APO for trend strength, DMI for directional movement, MACD for convergence/divergence, MFI for volume-weighted momentum, Parabolic SAR for trailing stops, RSI for overbought/oversold conditions, SMA crossovers for trend reversals, Stochastic for momentum shifts, Time Series Forecast for predictive modeling, and Ultimate Oscillator for multi-timeframe confirmation. For example, QQQ's SELL signals are backed by an overbought RSI above 70 and a bearish MACD crossover, indicating potential exhaustion in the rally.

Consensus Signal Table

Tech vs. Value: Decoding ETF Signals in a Shifting Market

ETF	5 Days	10 Days	15 Days	20 Days	25 Days	30 Days
BND
DIA			buy	buy		buy
GLD	buy	BUY
IJH		buy	BUY		BUY
IWM				sell	buy	buy
JNK
KBE				BUY	buy	BUY
QQQ				SELL		SELL
SPY		sell			buy
TQQQ					sell
UPRO				sell	sell	sell
URTY	buy			SELL
XBI			SELL			BUY
XES	buy
XHB	sell				buy
XHS				SELL		sell
XLB	buy
XLE	buy
XLF	sell	sell		SELL
XLI			buy
XLK						SELL
XLP
XLRE					buy	buy
XLU
XLV	buy					BUY
XLY			SELL
XME	sell	sell	sell	sell
XOP		buy			buy
XRT	sell	sell				SELL

Handling Strong Consensus Trends

GLD - Strong Buy (10 Days)

To confirm the strong buy signal for GLD over 10 days, recent analyses support bullish sentiment:

• SPDR Gold Shares Tokenized ETF (Hyperliquid) (GLD) Price Prediction 2026, 2027 - 2030 - Forecasts gold climbing significantly, agreeing with the BUY based on projected gains.
• Gold prices climb, with spot gold set for a monthly gain of more than 8% - Bernstein forecasts $4,800/oz in 2026, supporting the bullish call.

IJH - Strong Buy (15 and 25 Days)

For IJH's strong buy:

• IJH - Ishares Core S P Mid Cap Etf Stock Price Forecast 2026, 2027, 2030 to 2050 - Predicts upside to $78.23, agreeing with BUY on mid-term growth.

KBE - Strong Buy (20 and 30 Days)

For KBE's strong buy, sources are mixed:

• Spdr S&p Bank Etf ETF Price Forecast. Should You Buy KBE? - Suggests 8.19% rise, agreeing with BUY.
• KBE Technical Analysis & ETF Price Forecast - Neutral to sell, contradicting with sell signals.

QQQ - Strong Sell (20 and 30 Days)

For QQQ's strong sell:

• Qqq ETF Price Forecast. Should You Buy QQQ? - Predicts -2.15% fall, agreeing with SELL.
• QQQ Stock Forecast: Analyst Targets and Market Outlook - Notes downward pressure, supporting sell.

URTY - Strong Sell (20 Days)

For URTY's strong sell:

• URTY - Proshares Ultrapro Russell 2000 3 X Shares Stock Price Forecast 2026, 2027, 2030 to 2050 - Downside risks, agreeing.

XBI - Strong Sell (15 Days), Strong Buy (30 Days)

For XBI's mixed:

• XBI Signals a Wave II Pullback After a 62% Surge - Expects pullback, agreeing with SELL short-term, but potential rally long-term for BUY.
• XBI - State Street Spdr S P Biotech Etf Stock Price Forecast 2026, 2027, 2030 to 2050 - Upside to $146, supporting BUY long-term.

XHS - Strong Sell (20 Days)

For XHS's strong sell:

• State Street Spdr S P Health Care Services Etf Stock (XHS) Forecast - Moderate upside, but overall neutral, partially contradicting.

XLF - Strong Sell (20 Days)

For XLF's strong sell:

• The Financial Select Sector Spdr Fund ETF Price Forecast. Should You Buy XLF? - -4.12% forecast, agreeing.

XLK - Strong Sell (30 Days)

For XLK's strong sell:

• The Technology Select Sector Spdr Fund ETF Price Forecast. Should You Buy XLK? - -2.97% fall, agreeing.

XLV - Strong Buy (30 Days)

For XLV's strong buy:

• XLV Technical Analysis & ETF Price Forecast - Strong buy sentiment.
• Sector Rotation: Healthcare XLV Should Be The Next Stop - Poised to benefit, agreeing.

XLY - Strong Sell (15 Days)

For XLY's strong sell:

• The Consumer Discretionary Select Sector Spdr Fund ETF Price Forecast. Should You Buy XLY? - -2.27% fall, agreeing.

XRT - Strong Sell (30 Days)

For XRT's strong sell:

• Spdr S&p Retail Etf ETF Price Forecast. Should You Buy XRT? - Potential rise but overall hold, partially contradicting; however, seasonality shows February negative.

Posted by Joe McVerry (@usacoder) on X on February 28, 2026.