ETF Technical Analysis Update: January 31, 2026
Disclaimer: The analyses provided in this blog are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial advice. I am not a professional financial advisor. Always conduct your own research and consult with a qualified professional before making investment decisions.
Overall Market Insights
As we close out January 2026, the technical analysis of various ETFs reveals a predominantly bullish outlook for major market indices over the medium to long term. Indicators such as the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) showing positive crossovers, Relative Strength Index (RSI) levels above 50 indicating momentum, and Simple Moving Average (SMA) alignments suggest upward trends in broad market ETFs like DIA, SPY, and QQQ. However, sector-specific ETFs show mixed signals, with energy-related ones like XOP displaying strength in shorter horizons but neutrality longer term, potentially influenced by Parabolic SAR trends and Money Flow Index (MFI) readings.
Bullish highlights include strong buy consensus for DIA across 15-30 day periods, driven by consistent Directional Movement Index (DMI) positives and Ultimate Oscillator uptrends. Bearish signals are limited, with XRT showing a weak sell in the 5-day horizon, possibly due to Stochastic Momentum Indicator overbought conditions.
Comparisons to Prior Data
Compared to the January 30 analysis, signals remain largely stable with minor upgrades. For instance, SPY has strengthened its 25-day signal to a strong BUY from neutral, reflecting improved Time Series Forecast projections. QQQ maintains strong buys but added a weak buy in the 5-day period. On the bearish side, XLF's 20-day sell from previous days has persisted but not intensified. Overall, the market sentiment has tilted slightly more bullish week-over-week, with fewer neutral signals in key indices compared to mid-January data.
Consensus Signal Table
| ETF | 5 Days | 10 Days | 15 Days | 20 Days | 25 Days | 30 Days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BND | buy | buy | ||||
| DIA | BUY | BUY | BUY | BUY | ||
| GLD | ||||||
| IJH | buy | BUY | BUY | buy | ||
| IWM | buy | buy | ||||
| JNK | buy | buy | ||||
| KBE | BUY | BUY | BUY | |||
| QQQ | buy | BUY | BUY | BUY | ||
| SPY | buy | buy | BUY | |||
| TQQQ | ||||||
| UPRO | BUY | BUY | buy | |||
| URTY | ||||||
| XBI | BUY | buy | buy | |||
| XES | ||||||
| XHB | buy | buy | buy | buy | ||
| XHS | BUY | |||||
| XLB | ||||||
| XLE | ||||||
| XLF | sell | |||||
| XLI | ||||||
| XLK | BUY | |||||
| XLP | ||||||
| XLRE | BUY | |||||
| XLU | BUY | |||||
| XLV | buy | buy | buy | |||
| XLY | ||||||
| XME | ||||||
| XOP | buy | buy | BUY | buy | buy | |
| XRT | sell | buy | BUY |
Strong Consensus Trends Analysis
For ETFs showing strong BUY signals, we've reviewed recent articles to validate or challenge these calls based on external forecasts.
DIA (Strong BUY in 15-30 days)
- 6 ETF Predictions for 2026 - Yahoo Finance: The article is optimistic about major indices, forecasting S&P 500 gains up to 8,000 (from ~6,929), which aligns with DIA's bullish signals due to similar market drivers like AI and economic growth. Agrees with the BUY call.
- Spdr Dow Jones Industrial Average Etf ETF Price Forecast. Should You Buy DIA? - StockInvest.us: Predicts a 5.57% rise in 3 months, supporting the positive momentum indicated by our indicators. Agrees with the BUY call.
- SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust Fund Forecast, "DIA" Price Prediction Charts - Wallet Investor: Forecasts an 8% increase over the year, reinforcing the long-term upward trend. Agrees with the BUY call.
QQQ (Strong BUY in 15,20,30 days)
- Invesco Qqq Trust Series 1 Stock Price Forecast 2026, 2027, 2030 to 2050 - StockScan: Predicts an average of $676 (from $621), a +8.76% gain, driven by tech sector strength. Agrees with the BUY call.
- Quarterly Highlights for the Invesco QQQ ETF: Positive outlook on AI investments and earnings growth, supporting bullish technicals. Agrees with the BUY call.
KBE (Strong BUY in 20-30 days)
- Spdr S&p Bank Etf ETF Price Forecast. Should You Buy KBE? - StockInvest.us: Suggests a 14% rise in 3 months, citing positive moving averages. Agrees with the BUY call.
- SPDR® S&P Bank Fund Forecast: up to $66.319! - KBE Fund Price Prediction... - Wallet Investor: Minor upside predicted, aligning with banking sector recovery. Agrees with the BUY call.
XOP (Strong BUY in 15 days)
- SPDR® S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production Fund Forecast: up to $135.663!...: Slight upside to $139 from $136, but overall modest. Partially agrees with the BUY call.
- XOP: My Outlook For Oil And Gas Through Year-End 2026 - Seeking Alpha: Bearish due to supply glut, predicting downward pressure. Disagrees with the BUY call.
SPY (Strong BUY in 25 days)
- Will the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) Stock Hit $800 in 2026? - Yahoo Finance: Discusses potential 21.5% rise to $800, based on economic factors. Agrees with the BUY call.
- Spdr S&p 500 Etf ETF Price Forecast. Should You Buy SPY? - StockInvest.us: 3.22% rise in 3 months predicted. Agrees with the BUY call.
What I Own
Full disclosure, as of Jan 30th, I own KBE, IJH, XLY and XOP.Posted by Joe McVerry (@usacoder) on X on January 31, 2026.