Daily ETF Trends Analysis - January 15, 2026
Hey folks, I'm Joe, a former programmer/analyst with a passion for technical analysis. I'm not a pro trader, just someone who enjoys using tools like the Absolute Price Oscillator, Directional Movement Index, MACD, Money Flow Index, Parabolic SAR, Relative Strength Index, Simple Moving Average, Stochastic Momentum Indicator, Time Series Forecast, Ultimate Oscillator, and more to spot potential trends in ETF prices. My spreadsheet crunches historical data to give buy or sell signals over 5, 10, 15, 20, 25, and 30 days. Remember, this is for educational purposes only – always do your own research and consult a financial advisor before making trades.
Overall Market Sentiment
Today's analysis shows a mostly bullish outlook. Out of all the signals, there are 78 BUY signals and 19 SELL signals, with buys making up about 47% and sells about 11%. The rest are neutral. This suggests upward trends in many sectors, especially in broad market ETFs like DIA, SPY, and QQQ, as well as health (XLV) and financials (XLF). Bonds (BND) and some leveraged ones like TQQQ longer-term are on the sell side, indicating potential pullbacks there.
Key Changes from Yesterday (January 14)
Here are some notable shifts in signals:
- BND (5 days): Neutral to SELL
- DIA (25 days): Neutral to BUY
- XBI (10 days): BUY to SELL
- XOP (5 days): SELL to BUY
- XLP (15 days): SELL to Neutral
- XLP (20 days): Neutral to SELL
- XLP (25 days): SELL to BUY
- XLRE (5 days): Neutral to SELL
- And a few others – overall, mixed but leaning towards more buys in equities.
These changes could reflect recent market movements. For instance, energy ETFs like XOP flipping to BUY short-term might be due to oil price trends.
Highlights by Sector
Let's break it down simply:
- Broad Market (DIA, SPY, QQQ): Mostly BUY across time frames, suggesting positive momentum in stocks overall.
- Tech (XLK, QQQ, TQQQ): Short-term BUY, but longer-term neutral or SELL for leveraged TQQQ – watch for volatility.
- Gold (GLD): BUY for 5-15 days, neutral longer – potential short-term upside.
- Bonds (BND, JNK): BND mostly SELL, but JNK all BUY – junk bonds looking stronger than treasuries.
- Energy (XLE, XOP, XES): Mixed, with some BUY signals – could be rebounding.
- Health (XLV, XBI, XHS): Strong BUY in XLV and XHS, but XBI has a SELL short-term.
- Financials (XLF, KBE): Mostly BUY – banks and financials seem optimistic.
- Real Estate (XLRE): Mostly SELL – possible weakness in property.
- Utilities (XLU): All neutral – stable but no strong direction.
- Consumer (XLP, XLY, XRT): Mixed, with XLP having some SELL and BUY, XLY mostly neutral/SELL.
The training accuracy is generally high (over 70-80% for longer periods), giving some confidence in the model's historical performance.
Today's Full Data Table
Here's the latest spreadsheet output as a table. The "On Call" column shows BUY or SELL if the average predicted price is above or below current levels. Numbers like "Average On Call" are price ratios (e.g., 1.010 means +1% expected).
| Symbol | Days Out | Training % Correct | Best Low | Best High | Average On Call | Minimum Low | Maximum High | On Call |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BND | 5 | 0.643 | 0.997 | 1.000 | 0.998 | 0.999 | 1.008 | On the SELL Side |
| BND | 10 | 0.744 | 0.999 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 0.999 | 1.008 | |
| BND | 15 | 0.752 | 0.999 | 1.000 | 0.999 | 0.997 | 1.007 | On the SELL Side |
| BND | 20 | 0.814 | 0.999 | 1.008 | 1.003 | 0.997 | 1.007 | |
| BND | 25 | 0.859 | 0.997 | 0.998 | 0.997 | 0.997 | 1.007 | On the SELL Side |
| BND | 30 | 0.869 | 0.996 | 0.999 | 0.997 | 0.994 | 1.018 | On the SELL Side |
| DIA | 5 | 0.694 | 0.999 | 1.009 | 1.004 | 0.981 | 1.013 | |
| DIA | 10 | 0.740 | 1.004 | 1.013 | 1.008 | 0.927 | 1.029 | On the BUY Side |
| DIA | 15 | 0.831 | 1.009 | 1.017 | 1.013 | 0.957 | 1.025 | On the BUY Side |
| DIA | 20 | 0.854 | 1.021 | 1.021 | 1.021 | 0.863 | 1.026 | On the BUY Side |
| DIA | 25 | 0.861 | 1.002 | 1.032 | 1.017 | 0.696 | 1.026 | On the BUY Side |
| DIA | 30 | 0.889 | 1.033 | 1.040 | 1.036 | 0.961 | 1.056 | On the BUY Side |
| GLD | 5 | 0.706 | 1.008 | 1.012 | 1.010 | 0.961 | 1.056 | On the BUY Side |
| GLD | 10 | 0.734 | 1.009 | 1.016 | 1.012 | 0.857 | 1.038 | On the BUY Side |
| GLD | 15 | 0.772 | 1.019 | 1.043 | 1.031 | 0.943 | 1.032 | On the BUY Side |
| GLD | 20 | 0.827 | 0.960 | 1.057 | 1.008 | 0.980 | 1.028 | |
| GLD | 25 | 0.849 | 0.970 | 1.067 | 1.019 | 0.986 | 1.032 | |
| GLD | 30 | 0.859 | 0.964 | 1.081 | 1.023 | 0.887 | 1.040 | |
| IWM | 5 | 0.660 | 1.017 | 1.017 | 1.017 | 0.887 | 1.040 | On the BUY Side |
| IWM | 10 | 0.719 | 0.996 | 1.014 | 1.005 | 0.966 | 1.033 | |
| IWM | 15 | 0.794 | 1.011 | 1.018 | 1.014 | 0.963 | 1.024 | On the BUY Side |
| IWM | 20 | 0.815 | 1.009 | 1.016 | 1.013 | 0.980 | 1.027 | On the BUY Side |
| IWM | 25 | 0.857 | 0.978 | 1.034 | 1.006 | 0.959 | 1.080 | |
| IWM | 30 | 0.873 | 0.961 | 1.055 | 1.008 | 0.913 | 1.088 | |
| JNK | 5 | 0.643 | 1.001 | 1.002 | 1.002 | 0.988 | 1.003 | On the BUY Side |
| JNK | 10 | 0.714 | 1.004 | 1.009 | 1.007 | 0.957 | 1.928 | On the BUY Side |
| JNK | 15 | 0.767 | 1.006 | 1.008 | 1.007 | 0.992 | 1.040 | On the BUY Side |
| JNK | 20 | 0.789 | 1.003 | 1.003 | 1.003 | 0.992 | 1.040 | On the BUY Side |
| JNK | 25 | 0.819 | 1.004 | 1.012 | 1.008 | 0.890 | 1.021 | On the BUY Side |
| JNK | 30 | 0.840 | 1.005 | 1.005 | 1.005 | 0.932 | 1.666 | On the BUY Side |
| KBE | 5 | 0.644 | 1.006 | 1.007 | 1.006 | 0.919 | 1.059 | On the BUY Side |
| KBE | 10 | 0.711 | 1.001 | 1.003 | 1.002 | 0.892 | 1.057 | On the BUY Side |
| KBE | 15 | 0.777 | 0.975 | 1.006 | 0.990 | 0.941 | 1.170 | |
| KBE | 20 | 0.819 | 0.963 | 1.025 | 0.994 | 0.932 | 1.054 | |
| KBE | 25 | 0.852 | 1.015 | 1.064 | 1.039 | 0.771 | 1.036 | On the BUY Side |
| KBE | 30 | 0.877 | 0.998 | 1.081 | 1.040 | 0.958 | 1.069 | |
| QQQ | 5 | 0.686 | 0.965 | 1.008 | 0.987 | 0.971 | 1.018 | |
| QQQ | 10 | 0.741 | 0.992 | 1.006 | 0.999 | 0.955 | 1.087 | |
| QQQ | 15 | 0.808 | 1.001 | 1.008 | 1.004 | 0.967 | 1.073 | On the BUY Side |
| QQQ | 20 | 0.854 | 1.002 | 1.012 | 1.007 | 0.963 | 1.165 | On the BUY Side |
| QQQ | 25 | 0.872 | 1.006 | 1.016 | 1.011 | 0.916 | 1.020 | On the BUY Side |
| QQQ | 30 | 0.888 | 1.027 | 1.027 | 1.027 | 0.882 | 1.049 | On the BUY Side |
| SPY | 5 | 0.717 | 1.000 | 1.006 | 1.003 | 0.985 | 1.031 | |
| SPY | 10 | 0.779 | 1.004 | 1.008 | 1.006 | 0.973 | 1.302 | On the BUY Side |
| SPY | 15 | 0.846 | 0.992 | 1.012 | 1.002 | 0.978 | 1.025 | |
| SPY | 20 | 0.881 | 1.010 | 1.085 | 1.048 | 0.953 | 1.086 | On the BUY Side |
| SPY | 25 | 0.887 | 1.021 | 1.024 | 1.023 | 0.930 | 1.062 | On the BUY Side |
| SPY | 30 | 0.916 | 0.985 | 1.013 | 0.999 | 0.884 | 1.032 | |
| TQQQ | 5 | 0.688 | 1.000 | 1.013 | 1.007 | 0.871 | 2.715 | |
| TQQQ | 10 | 0.740 | 1.018 | 1.043 | 1.031 | 0.947 | 1.281 | On the BUY Side |
| TQQQ | 15 | 0.788 | 0.863 | 1.171 | 1.017 | 0.904 | 1.119 | |
| TQQQ | 20 | 0.852 | 0.911 | 0.958 | 0.934 | 0.456 | 2.650 | On the SELL Side |
| TQQQ | 25 | 0.887 | 0.947 | 0.949 | 0.948 | 0.797 | 1.306 | On the SELL Side |
| TQQQ | 30 | 0.904 | 0.832 | 0.847 | 0.839 | 0.783 | 2.062 | On the SELL Side |
| UPRO | 10 | 0.798 | 1.010 | 1.018 | 1.014 | 0.966 | 1.040 | On the BUY Side |
| UPRO | 15 | 0.832 | 1.034 | 1.055 | 1.045 | 0.963 | 1.141 | On the BUY Side |
| UPRO | 20 | 0.858 | 1.023 | 1.023 | 1.023 | 0.945 | 1.085 | On the BUY Side |
| UPRO | 25 | 0.880 | 1.050 | 1.054 | 1.052 | 0.866 | 1.131 | On the BUY Side |
| UPRO | 30 | 0.888 | 0.997 | 1.060 | 1.029 | 0.932 | 1.070 | |
| URTY | 10 | 0.731 | 1.034 | 1.036 | 1.035 | 0.854 | 1.211 | On the BUY Side |
| URTY | 15 | 0.772 | 0.994 | 1.038 | 1.016 | 0.783 | 1.040 | |
| URTY | 20 | 0.823 | 1.047 | 1.051 | 1.049 | 0.649 | 1.227 | On the BUY Side |
| URTY | 25 | 0.836 | 0.991 | 1.117 | 1.054 | 0.807 | 1.171 | |
| URTY | 30 | 0.855 | 1.140 | 1.175 | 1.157 | 0.799 | 1.601 | On the BUY Side |
| XBI | 5 | 0.642 | 0.969 | 1.007 | 0.988 | 0.966 | 1.043 | |
| XBI | 10 | 0.722 | 0.999 | 0.999 | 0.999 | 0.958 | 1.040 | On the SELL Side |
| XBI | 15 | 0.799 | 0.969 | 1.005 | 0.987 | 0.923 | 1.046 | |
| XBI | 20 | 0.841 | 1.016 | 1.097 | 1.057 | 0.947 | 1.097 | On the BUY Side |
| XBI | 25 | 0.879 | 1.012 | 1.025 | 1.019 | 0.942 | 1.048 | On the BUY Side |
| XBI | 30 | 0.877 | 1.000 | 1.053 | 1.027 | 0.981 | 1.040 | On the BUY Side |
| XES | 5 | 0.642 | 0.985 | 1.038 | 1.011 | 0.944 | 1.016 | |
| XES | 10 | 0.699 | 0.978 | 1.056 | 1.017 | 0.849 | 1.027 | |
| XES | 15 | 0.736 | 1.039 | 1.041 | 1.040 | 0.851 | 1.091 | On the BUY Side |
| XES | 20 | 0.771 | 1.015 | 1.016 | 1.016 | 0.859 | 1.080 | On the BUY Side |
| XES | 25 | 0.832 | 1.042 | 1.050 | 1.046 | 0.842 | 1.080 | On the BUY Side |
| XES | 30 | 0.843 | 0.986 | 1.089 | 1.038 | 0.842 | 1.080 | |
| XHB | 5 | 0.661 | 0.992 | 0.992 | 0.992 | 0.986 | 1.109 | On the SELL Side |
| XHB | 10 | 0.737 | 0.980 | 1.017 | 0.999 | 0.901 | 1.057 | |
| XHB | 15 | 0.804 | 0.977 | 0.993 | 0.985 | 0.969 | 1.024 | On the SELL Side |
| XHB | 20 | 0.837 | 0.986 | 0.987 | 0.987 | 0.918 | 1.073 | On the SELL Side |
| XHB | 25 | 0.840 | 1.007 | 1.011 | 1.009 | 0.948 | 1.085 | On the BUY Side |
| XHB | 30 | 0.865 | 1.014 | 1.017 | 1.016 | 0.948 | 1.089 | On the BUY Side |
| XHS | 5 | 0.701 | 1.000 | 1.031 | 1.016 | 0.982 | 1.050 | On the BUY Side |
| XHS | 10 | 0.728 | 0.999 | 1.000 | 0.999 | 0.952 | 1.039 | On the SELL Side |
| XHS | 15 | 0.773 | 1.000 | 1.014 | 1.007 | 0.934 | 1.046 | On the BUY Side |
| XHS | 20 | 0.808 | 1.005 | 1.005 | 1.005 | 0.949 | 1.047 | On the BUY Side |
| XHS | 25 | 0.837 | 1.014 | 1.026 | 1.020 | 0.931 | 1.052 | On the BUY Side |
| XHS | 30 | 0.839 | 1.044 | 1.044 | 1.044 | 0.864 | 1.056 | On the BUY Side |
| XLB | 5 | 0.721 | 1.000 | 1.002 | 1.001 | 0.940 | 1.076 | |
| XLB | 10 | 0.763 | 0.966 | 1.010 | 0.988 | 0.903 | 2.037 | |
| XLB | 15 | 0.827 | 0.946 | 1.042 | 0.994 | 0.964 | 1.038 | |
| XLB | 20 | 0.849 | 0.806 | 1.177 | 0.991 | 0.991 | 1.042 | |
| XLB | 25 | 0.876 | 0.567 | 1.428 | 0.997 | 0.531 | 2.664 | |
| XLB | 30 | 0.864 | 0.537 | 1.421 | 0.979 | 0.966 | 1.084 | |
| XLE | 5 | 0.615 | 1.004 | 1.006 | 1.005 | 0.755 | 2.495 | On the BUY Side |
| XLE | 10 | 0.705 | 0.978 | 1.099 | 1.039 | 0.948 | 1.073 | |
| XLE | 15 | 0.768 | 0.934 | 1.025 | 0.980 | 0.985 | 1.048 | |
| XLE | 20 | 0.812 | 0.968 | 1.240 | 1.104 | 0.949 | 1.031 | |
| XLE | 25 | 0.820 | 0.595 | 1.510 | 1.052 | 0.949 | 1.031 | |
| XLE | 30 | 0.832 | 1.079 | 1.523 | 1.301 | 0.957 | 1.077 | On the BUY Side |
| XLF | 5 | 0.693 | 1.004 | 1.006 | 1.005 | 0.959 | 1.016 | On the BUY Side |
| XLF | 10 | 0.784 | 1.005 | 1.006 | 1.006 | 0.943 | 1.022 | On the BUY Side |
| XLF | 15 | 0.811 | 1.011 | 1.020 | 1.016 | 0.983 | 1.051 | On the BUY Side |
| XLF | 20 | 0.845 | 1.024 | 1.033 | 1.028 | 0.956 | 1.044 | On the BUY Side |
| XLF | 25 | 0.856 | 1.024 | 1.049 | 1.037 | 0.795 | 1.063 | On the BUY Side |
| XLF | 30 | 0.870 | 1.028 | 1.056 | 1.042 | 0.919 | 1.095 | On the BUY Side |
| XLI | 5 | 0.679 | 1.003 | 1.015 | 1.009 | 0.972 | 1.016 | On the BUY Side |
| XLI | 10 | 0.738 | 1.002 | 1.023 | 1.012 | 0.973 | 1.028 | On the BUY Side |
| XLI | 15 | 0.787 | 1.009 | 1.031 | 1.020 | 0.966 | 1.026 | On the BUY Side |
| XLI | 20 | 0.829 | 1.001 | 1.028 | 1.015 | 0.947 | 1.029 | On the BUY Side |
| XLI | 25 | 0.863 | 1.023 | 1.038 | 1.031 | 0.957 | 1.063 | On the BUY Side |
| XLI | 30 | 0.874 | 1.028 | 1.039 | 1.033 | 0.932 | 1.069 | On the BUY Side |
| XLK | 5 | 0.669 | 1.005 | 1.007 | 1.006 | 0.940 | 1.058 | On the BUY Side |
| XLK | 10 | 0.755 | 1.013 | 1.048 | 1.031 | 0.732 | 1.214 | On the BUY Side |
| XLK | 15 | 0.812 | 0.956 | 1.085 | 1.020 | 0.955 | 1.022 | |
| XLK | 20 | 0.842 | 0.798 | 1.156 | 0.977 | 0.953 | 1.067 | |
| XLK | 25 | 0.859 | 0.571 | 1.443 | 1.007 | 0.990 | 1.058 | |
| XLK | 30 | 0.897 | 0.546 | 1.378 | 0.962 | 0.906 | 1.103 | |
| XLP | 5 | 0.669 | 1.005 | 1.006 | 1.006 | 0.974 | 1.023 | On the BUY Side |
| XLP | 10 | 0.736 | 1.000 | 1.001 | 1.000 | 0.982 | 1.029 | |
| XLP | 15 | 0.784 | 0.995 | 1.006 | 1.000 | 0.987 | 1.038 | |
| XLP | 20 | 0.842 | 0.999 | 0.999 | 0.999 | 0.975 | 1.046 | On the SELL Side |
| XLP | 25 | 0.825 | 1.002 | 1.002 | 1.002 | 0.958 | 1.071 | On the BUY Side |
| XLP | 30 | 0.848 | 1.003 | 1.011 | 1.007 | 0.920 | 1.070 | On the BUY Side |
| XLRE | 5 | 0.668 | 0.996 | 0.997 | 0.996 | 0.972 | 1.013 | On the SELL Side |
| XLRE | 10 | 0.732 | 0.993 | 0.993 | 0.993 | 0.962 | 1.073 | On the SELL Side |
| XLRE | 15 | 0.796 | 0.993 | 0.993 | 0.993 | 0.982 | 1.068 | On the SELL Side |
| XLRE | 20 | 0.825 | 0.979 | 0.983 | 0.981 | 0.981 | 1.080 | On the SELL Side |
| XLRE | 25 | 0.848 | 0.983 | 1.005 | 0.994 | 0.921 | 1.058 | |
| XLRE | 30 | 0.859 | 0.980 | 1.001 | 0.991 | 0.978 | 1.071 | |
| XLU | 5 | 0.670 | 0.994 | 1.005 | 0.999 | 0.955 | 1.034 | |
| XLU | 10 | 0.760 | 0.987 | 1.635 | 1.311 | 0.885 | 2.255 | |
| XLU | 15 | 0.805 | 0.913 | 1.072 | 0.992 | 0.908 | 3.301 | |
| XLU | 20 | 0.859 | 0.874 | 1.307 | 1.091 | 0.988 | 1.038 | |
| XLU | 25 | 0.864 | 0.715 | 1.480 | 1.098 | 0.480 | 2.762 | |
| XLU | 30 | 0.896 | 0.855 | 1.400 | 1.128 | 0.902 | 1.122 | |
| XLV | 5 | 0.707 | 1.001 | 1.010 | 1.006 | 0.988 | 1.006 | On the BUY Side |
| XLV | 10 | 0.763 | 1.005 | 1.014 | 1.010 | 0.988 | 1.006 | On the BUY Side |
| XLV | 15 | 0.830 | 1.010 | 1.017 | 1.013 | 0.963 | 1.031 | On the BUY Side |
| XLV | 20 | 0.876 | 1.015 | 1.017 | 1.016 | 0.959 | 1.067 | On the BUY Side |
| XLV | 25 | 0.883 | 1.011 | 1.013 | 1.012 | 0.966 | 1.035 | On the BUY Side |
| XLV | 30 | 0.907 | 1.015 | 1.020 | 1.017 | 0.912 | 1.035 | On the BUY Side |
| XLY | 5 | 0.697 | 0.994 | 1.111 | 1.053 | 0.959 | 1.013 | |
| XLY | 10 | 0.759 | 0.924 | 0.982 | 0.953 | 0.976 | 1.031 | On the SELL Side |
| XLY | 15 | 0.815 | 0.933 | 1.112 | 1.022 | 0.965 | 1.063 | |
| XLY | 20 | 0.824 | 0.783 | 1.176 | 0.980 | 0.971 | 1.095 | |
| XLY | 25 | 0.856 | 0.607 | 1.464 | 1.036 | 0.984 | 1.061 | |
| XLY | 30 | 0.860 | 0.529 | 1.461 | 0.995 | 0.971 | 1.097 | |
| XME | 5 | 0.688 | 0.981 | 1.039 | 1.010 | 0.908 | 1.029 | |
| XME | 10 | 0.765 | 0.962 | 1.059 | 1.010 | 0.880 | 1.140 | |
| XME | 15 | 0.809 | 0.971 | 1.086 | 1.029 | 0.841 | 1.042 | |
| XME | 20 | 0.813 | 1.007 | 1.122 | 1.065 | 0.867 | 1.032 | On the BUY Side |
| XME | 25 | 0.857 | 0.913 | 1.165 | 1.039 | 0.964 | 1.060 | |
| XME | 30 | 0.852 | 0.877 | 1.193 | 1.035 | 0.811 | 1.045 | |
| XOP | 5 | 0.623 | 1.003 | 1.004 | 1.004 | 0.811 | 1.045 | On the BUY Side |
| XOP | 10 | 0.696 | 1.006 | 1.015 | 1.010 | 0.852 | 1.143 | On the BUY Side |
| XOP | 15 | 0.773 | 0.980 | 1.008 | 0.994 | 0.976 | 1.079 | |
| XOP | 20 | 0.804 | 0.957 | 0.964 | 0.961 | 0.943 | 1.098 | On the SELL Side |
| XOP | 25 | 0.852 | 0.966 | 1.006 | 0.986 | 0.959 | 1.126 | |
| XOP | 30 | 0.855 | 0.965 | 1.008 | 0.986 | 0.884 | 1.198 | |
| XRT | 5 | 0.665 | 1.011 | 1.015 | 1.013 | 0.921 | 1.016 | On the BUY Side |
| XRT | 10 | 0.730 | 0.989 | 1.018 | 1.003 | 0.964 | 1.101 | |
| XRT | 15 | 0.788 | 1.014 | 1.014 | 1.014 | 0.964 | 1.101 | On the BUY Side |
| XRT | 20 | 0.812 | 1.000 | 1.026 | 1.013 | 0.945 | 1.070 | |
| XRT | 25 | 0.829 | 0.960 | 1.061 | 1.011 | 0.945 | 1.070 | |
| XRT | 30 | 0.845 | 0.967 | 1.094 | 1.030 | 0.945 | 1.070 |
Final Thoughts
The data points to a positive short-to-medium term for many ETFs, but with some caution in bonds and consumer discretionary. I'll keep tracking these and update tomorrow. What do you think about these signals? Drop a comment below!
Posted by @usacoder from Raleigh, NC.
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