Saturday, August 10, 2019

Models Are Getting More Bullish for SP&100 and 500 ETFs.

OEF and QQQ and their related  leveraged ETFS are the only bearish calls and that's mostly from the QLearning side  - the rest  bullish.

Monte CarloQlearning
OEF
iShares SP100
to cashto stocks
OEF
iShares SP100
to cashto stocks
was cash:17.2%0%
was cash:43.2%28.9%
was stocks:8.8%74%
was stocks:14%13.8%
26%74%bullish57.2%42.8%bearish
QQQ
Invesco QQQ
to cashto stocks
QQQ
Invesco QQQ
to cashto stocks
was cash:8.7%26%
was cash:57.5%35.6%
was stocks:25.5%39.9%
was stocks:0%6.9%
34.1%65.9%bullish57.5%42.5%bearish
TQQQ
ProShr UltraPro QQQ
to cashto stocks
TQQQ
ProShr UltraPro QQQ
to cashto stocks
was cash:9.8%17.1%
was cash:41.5%51.7%
was stocks:20.2%52.9%
was stocks:0%6.8%
30%70%bullish41.5%58.5%bullish
SQQQ
ProShr UltraPro Short QQQ
to cashto stocks
SQQQ
ProShr UltraPro Short QQQ
to cashto stocks
was cash:38.7%27.1%
was cash:25.4%18.9%
was stocks:9.3%25%
was stocks:23.2%32.5%
48%52%bearish48.6%51.4%bearish
QLD
ProShr Ultra QQQ
to cashto stocks
QLD
ProShr Ultra QQQ
to cashto stocks
was cash:17.1%8.7%
was cash:43.9%36.3%
was stocks:9.5%64.7%
was stocks:12.9%6.8%
26.6%73.4%bullish56.8%43.2%bearish
QID
ProShr UltraShort QQQ
to cashto stocks
QID
ProShr UltraShort QQQ
to cashto stocks
was cash:40.1%25.8%
was cash:18.8%6.7%
was stocks:25.8%8.2%
was stocks:37.1%37.4%
65.9%34.1%bullish55.8%44.2%bullish
SPY
SPDR SP500
to cashto stocks
SPY
SPDR SP500
to cashto stocks
was cash:8.2%33.8%
was cash:21.4%51%
was stocks:17.5%40.5%
was stocks:13.5%14%
25.7%74.3%bullish35%65%bullish
SPXL
Drxn SP500 Bull 3X
to cashto stocks
SPXL
Drxn SP500 Bull 3X
to cashto stocks
was cash:34.6%17.1%
was cash:21.1%43.4%
was stocks:9.8%38.5%
was stocks:21.1%14.4%
44.5%55.5%bullish42.3%57.7%bullish
SPXS
Drxn Daily SP500 Bear 3X
to cashto stocks
SPXS
Drxn Daily SP500 Bear 3X
to cashto stocks
was cash:22.9%9.5%
was cash:33.4%13.1%
was stocks:0%67.6%
was stocks:38%15.6%
22.9%77.1%bearish71.4%28.6%bullish
UPRO
ProShr UltraPro SP500
to cashto stocks
UPRO
ProShr UltraPro SP500
to cashto stocks
was cash:44.2%17.2%
was cash:7.6%50.8%
was stocks:0%38.6%
was stocks:20.6%21%
44.2%55.8%bullish28.2%71.8%bullish
SPXU
ProShr UltraPro Short SP500
to cashto stocks
SPXU
ProShr UltraPro Short SP500
to cashto stocks
was cash:22%8.8%
was cash:26.1%27.9%
was stocks:8.5%60.7%
was stocks:29.6%16.4%
30.5%69.5%bearish55.7%44.3%bullish

Tuesday, August 6, 2019

Very Confused - Both Models Make A Case for Either Direction.

Remember both of these models are short term related - 3 to 7 days.  The Monte Carlo model tends to be more short-term than the QLearning.

Monte CarloQlearning
OEF
iShares SP100
to cashto stocks
OEF
iShares SP100
to cashto stocks
was cash:0%8.4%
was cash:86%0%
was stocks:0%91.6%
was stocks:14%0%
0%100%bullish 100%0%bearish
QQQ
Invesco QQQ
to cashto stocks
QQQ
Invesco QQQ
to cashto stocks
was cash:17.3%0%
was cash:79.3%7%
was stocks:0%82.7%
was stocks:13.7%0%
17.3%82.7%bullish 93%7%bearish
TQQQ
ProShr UltraPro QQQ
to cashto stocks
TQQQ
ProShr UltraPro QQQ
to cashto stocks
was cash:0%18.9%
was cash:82.5%0%
was stocks:0%81.1%
was stocks:17.5%0%
0%100%bullish 100%0%bearish
SQQQ
ProShr UltraPro Short QQQ
to cashto stocks
SQQQ
ProShr UltraPro Short QQQ
to cashto stocks
was cash:69.5%8.4%
was cash:0%18.2%
was stocks:8.2%13.9%
was stocks:0%81.8%
77.7%22.3%bullish 0%100%bearish
QLD
ProShr Ultra QQQ
to cashto stocks
QLD
ProShr Ultra QQQ
to cashto stocks
was cash:0%18.2%
was cash:80.2%0%
was stocks:0%81.8%
was stocks:19.8%0%
0%100%bullish 100%0%bearish
QID
ProShr UltraShort QQQ
to cashto stocks
QID
ProShr UltraShort QQQ
to cashto stocks
was cash:67%0%
was cash:0%20%
was stocks:24.6%8.4%
was stocks:7%73.1%
91.6%8.4%bullish 7%93%bearish
SPY
SPDR SP500
to cashto stocks
SPY
SPDR SP500
to cashto stocks
was cash:0%24.2%
was cash:85.6%0%
was stocks:0%75.8%
was stocks:7.2%7.2%
0%100%bullish 92.8%7.2%bearish
SPXL
Drxn SP500 Bull 3X
to cashto stocks
SPXL
Drxn SP500 Bull 3X
to cashto stocks
was cash:0%15.7%
was cash:85.7%0%
was stocks:8.3%76%
was stocks:14.3%0%
8.3%91.7%bullish 100%0%bearish
SPXS
Drxn Daily SP500 Bear 3X
to cashto stocks
SPXS
Drxn Daily SP500 Bear 3X
to cashto stocks
was cash:76.8%15.8%
was cash:0%6.5%
was stocks:0%7.4%
was stocks:0%93.5%
76.8%23.2%bullish 0%100%bearish
UPRO
ProShr UltraPro SP500
to cashto stocks
UPRO
ProShr UltraPro SP500
to cashto stocks
was cash:0%24.6%
was cash:86%0%
was stocks:0%75.4%
was stocks:14%0%
0%100%bullish 100%0%bearish
SPXU
ProShr UltraPro Short SP500
to cashto stocks
SPXU
ProShr UltraPro Short SP500
to cashto stocks
was cash:84.3%7.8%
was cash:0%19.5%
was stocks:0%7.9%
was stocks:0%80.5%
84.3%15.7%bullish 0%100%bearish

Friday, July 26, 2019

Models Generally Bullish for SP100 & 500 ETFs.


Monte CarloQlearning
OEF
iShares SP100
to cashto stocks
OEF
iShares SP100
to cashto stocks
was cash:33.2%0%
was cash:0%0%
was stocks:24.9%42%
was stocks:0%100%
58%42%bearish 0%100%bullish
QQQ
Invesco QQQ
to cashto stocks
QQQ
Invesco QQQ
to cashto stocks
was cash:50.7%8.6%
was cash:0%7.7%
was stocks:0%40.7%
was stocks:21.7%70.6%
50.7%49.3%bearish 21.7%78.3%bullish
TQQQ
ProShr UltraPro QQQ
to cashto stocks
TQQQ
ProShr UltraPro QQQ
to cashto stocks
was cash:32.5%10%
was cash:0%0%
was stocks:27.5%30%
was stocks:5.9%94.1%
60%40%bearish 5.9%94.1%bullish
SQQQ
ProShr UltraPro Short QQQ
to cashto stocks
SQQQ
ProShr UltraPro Short QQQ
to cashto stocks
was cash:18.1%0%
was cash:69.5%30.5%
was stocks:50.4%31.5%
was stocks:0%0%
68.5%31.5%bullish 69.5%30.5%bullish
QLD
ProShr Ultra QQQ
to cashto stocks
QLD
ProShr Ultra QQQ
to cashto stocks
was cash:33.3%9.4%
was cash:0%0%
was stocks:26.6%30.7%
was stocks:14.7%85.3%
59.8%40.2%bearish 14.7%85.3%bullish
QID
ProShr UltraShort QQQ
to cashto stocks
QID
ProShr UltraShort QQQ
to cashto stocks
was cash:17.1%0%
was cash:92.3%7.7%
was stocks:50.2%32.8%
was stocks:0%0%
67.2%32.8%bullish 92.3%7.7%bullish
SPY
SPDR SP500
to cashto stocks
SPY
SPDR SP500
to cashto stocks
was cash:42.4%8.1%
was cash:0%0%
was stocks:16.6%32.9%
was stocks:14.1%85.9%
59%41%bearish 14.1%85.9%bullish
SPXL
Drxn SP500 Bull 3X
to cashto stocks
SPXL
Drxn SP500 Bull 3X
to cashto stocks
was cash:34.8%16.2%
was cash:0%0%
was stocks:16.1%33%
was stocks:0%100%
50.9%49.1%bearish 0%100%bullish
SPXS
Drxn Daily SP500 Bear 3X
to cashto stocks
SPXS
Drxn Daily SP500 Bear 3X
to cashto stocks
was cash:23.8%17.6%
was cash:81.9%7.8%
was stocks:17.1%41.5%
was stocks:10.3%0%
40.9%59.1%bearish 92.2%7.8%bullish
UPRO
ProShr UltraPro SP500
to cashto stocks
UPRO
ProShr UltraPro SP500
to cashto stocks
was cash:26.2%25.3%
was cash:0%0%
was stocks:31.2%17.3%
was stocks:0%100%
57.4%42.6%bearish 0%100%bullish
SPXU
ProShr UltraPro Short SP500
to cashto stocks
SPXU
ProShr UltraPro Short SP500
to cashto stocks
was cash:32.7%16%
was cash:91.7%8.3%
was stocks:17.7%33.6%
was stocks:0%0%
50.4%49.6%bullish 91.7%8.3%bullish

Saturday, July 20, 2019

More Bearish Signals for the SP100 and 500.

I posted on Wednesday evening about the MACD/RSI x-overs going bearish.  And now both the Monte Carlo and QLearning algorithms are doing the same.

Monte Carlo QLearning
OEF to cash to stocks iShares SP100 OEF to cash to stocks iShares SP100
was cash 33.54% 16.38%
was cash 66.10% 0.00%
was stocks 16.18% 33.91%
was stocks 20.10% 13.80%

49.72% 50.28% bullish
86.20% 13.80% bearish
QQQ to cash to stocks Invesco QQQ QQQ to cash to stocks Invesco QQQ
was cash 49.95% 0.00%
was cash 37.30% 14.32%
was stocks 33.09% 16.96%
was stocks 41.35% 7.02%

83.04% 16.96% bearish
78.65% 21.35% bearish
TQQQ to cash to stocks ProShr UltraPro QQQ TQQQ to cash to stocks ProShr UltraPro QQQ
was cash 48.26% 0.00%
was cash 49.53% 7.48%
was stocks 26.33% 25.41%
was stocks 25.19% 17.80%

74.59% 25.41% bearish
74.72% 25.28% bearish
SQQQ to cash to stocks ProShr UltraPro Short QQQ SQQQ to cash to stocks ProShr UltraPro Short QQQ
was cash 0.00% 24.19%
was cash 17.76% 18.26%
was stocks 26.65% 49.16%
was stocks 0.00% 63.99%

26.65% 73.35% bearish
17.76% 82.24% bearish
QLD to cash to stocks ProShr Ultra QQQ QLD to cash to stocks ProShr Ultra QQQ
was cash 47.92% 0.00%
was cash 39.07% 14.74%
was stocks 42.84% 9.23%
was stocks 32.64% 13.56%

90.77% 9.23% bearish
71.71% 28.29% bearish
QID to cash to stocks ProShr UltraShort QQQ QID to cash to stocks ProShr UltraShort QQQ
was cash 8.96% 24.36%
was cash 6.45% 18.46%
was stocks 0.00% 66.68%
was stocks 22.38% 52.71%

8.96% 91.04% bearish
28.83% 71.17% bearish
SPY to cash to stocks SPDR SP500 SPY to cash to stocks SPDR SP500
was cash 57.51% 8.15%
was cash 72.26% 7.22%
was stocks 8.45% 25.90%
was stocks 0.00% 20.53%

65.96% 34.04% bearish
72.26% 27.74% bearish
SPXL to cash to stocks Drxn SP500 Bull 3X SPXL to cash to stocks Drxn SP500 Bull 3X
was cash 50.10% 7.92%
was cash 75.86% 0.00%
was stocks 15.93% 26.05%
was stocks 11.03% 13.11%

66.03% 33.97% bearish
86.89% 13.11% bearish
SPXS to cash to stocks Drxn Daily SP500 Bear 3X SPXS to cash to stocks Drxn Daily SP500 Bear 3X
was cash 8.24% 18.17%
was cash 0.00% 5.77%
was stocks 7.82% 65.76%
was stocks 7.66% 86.58%

16.06% 83.94% bearish
7.66% 92.34% bearish
UPRO to cash to stocks ProShr UltraPro SP500 UPRO to cash to stocks ProShr UltraPro SP500
was cash 58.80% 7.56%
was cash 73.86% 7.50%
was stocks 16.34% 17.30%
was stocks 5.85% 12.80%

75.14% 24.86% bearish
79.70% 20.30% bearish
SPXU to cash to stocks ProShr UltraPro Short SP500 SPXU to cash to stocks ProShr UltraPro Short SP500
was cash 8.12% 34.47%
was cash 6.48% 11.87%
was stocks 7.77% 49.64%
was stocks 0.00% 81.66%

15.89% 84.11% bearish
6.48% 93.53% bearish








Wednesday, July 17, 2019

Standard MACD and RSI Cross-Overs Are Bearish

All of the buy calls are for inverse ETFs. And vice versa for the sell calls. So I'm expecting a quick drop in the near future. 


Buy Sell
bzq iwd
faz spxl
sds spy
sh sso
skf uyg
spxs voo
spxu vti
tecs  
vxx  

Wednesday, June 26, 2019

Most Indicators For These ETFs Expecting A Bearish Market...

Several of the T.A. bloggers that I follow feel that Monday may have been an important top.

Monte Carlo QLearning
OEF to cash to stocks iShares SP100 OEF to cash to stocks iShares SP100
was cash 41.53% 0.00%
was cash 0.00% 0.00%
was stocks 16.45% 42.03%
was stocks 78.97% 21.03%

57.97% 42.03% bearish
78.97% 21.03% bearish
QQQ to cash to stocks Invesco QQQ QQQ to cash to stocks Invesco QQQ
was cash 49.07% 0.00%
was cash 0.00% 0.00%
was stocks 25.53% 25.40%
was stocks 56.41% 43.59%

74.60% 25.40% bearish
56.41% 43.59% bearish
TQQQ to cash to stocks ProShr UltraPro QQQ TQQQ to cash to stocks ProShr UltraPro QQQ
was cash 39.03% 0.00%
was cash 0.00% 0.00%
was stocks 10.56% 50.40%
was stocks 64.19% 35.81%

49.60% 50.40% bullish
64.19% 35.81% bearish
SQQQ to cash to stocks ProShr UltraPro Short QQQ SQQQ to cash to stocks ProShr UltraPro Short QQQ
was cash 24.74% 15.61%
was cash 45.13% 54.88%
was stocks 8.86% 50.79%
was stocks 0.00% 0.00%

33.61% 66.40% bearish
45.13% 54.88% bearish
QLD to cash to stocks ProShr Ultra QQQ QLD to cash to stocks ProShr Ultra QQQ
was cash 39.48% 0.00%
was cash 0.00% 0.00%
was stocks 17.25% 43.27%
was stocks 70.17% 29.83%

56.73% 43.27% bearish
70.17% 29.83% bearish
QID to cash to stocks ProShr UltraShort QQQ QID to cash to stocks ProShr UltraShort QQQ
was cash 25.41% 7.65%
was cash 44.26% 55.74%
was stocks 17.02% 49.93%
was stocks 0.00% 0.00%

42.42% 57.58% bearish
44.26% 55.74% bearish
SPY to cash to stocks SPDR SP500 SPY to cash to stocks SPDR SP500
was cash 57.89% 0.00%
was cash 0.00% 0.00%
was stocks 16.53% 25.59%
was stocks 77.67% 22.33%

74.42% 25.59% bearish
77.67% 22.33% bearish
SPXL to cash to stocks Drxn SP500 Bull 3X SPXL to cash to stocks Drxn SP500 Bull 3X
was cash 41.54% 0.00%
was cash 0.00% 0.00%
was stocks 24.64% 33.82%
was stocks 69.89% 30.11%

66.18% 33.82% bearish
69.89% 30.11% bearish
SPXS to cash to stocks Drxn Daily SP500 Bear 3X SPXS to cash to stocks Drxn Daily SP500 Bear 3X
was cash 32.83% 7.40%
was cash 55.78% 44.22%
was stocks 17.58% 42.20%
was stocks 0.00% 0.00%

50.40% 49.60% bullish
55.78% 44.22% bullish
UPRO to cash to stocks ProShr UltraPro SP500 UPRO to cash to stocks ProShr UltraPro SP500
was cash 49.25% 0.00%
was cash 0.00% 0.00%
was stocks 16.34% 34.41%
was stocks 64.74% 35.26%

65.59% 34.41% bearish
64.74% 35.26% bearish
SPXU to cash to stocks ProShr UltraPro Short SP500 SPXU to cash to stocks ProShr UltraPro Short SP500
was cash 42.18% 16.60%
was cash 40.01% 40.55%
was stocks 8.16% 33.05%
was stocks 0.00% 19.44%

50.34% 49.66% bullish
40.01% 59.99% bearish

Saturday, June 22, 2019

Bull/Bear Calls Are A Mixed Bag But Mostly Bullish For The SP100 & SP500 ETFs


Monte Carlo QLearning
OEF to cash to stocks iShares SP100 OEF to cash to stocks iShares SP100
was cash 41.51% 16.87%
was cash 0.00% 8.33%
was stocks 0.00% 41.62%
was stocks 14.11% 77.56%

41.51% 58.50% bullish
14.11% 85.89% bullish
QQQ to cash to stocks Invesco QQQ QQQ to cash to stocks Invesco QQQ
was cash 41.38% 17.32%
was cash 0.00% 7.52%
was stocks 0.00% 41.30%
was stocks 0.00% 92.48%

41.38% 58.62% bullish
0.00% 100.00% bullish
TQQQ to cash to stocks ProShr UltraPro QQQ TQQQ to cash to stocks ProShr UltraPro QQQ
was cash 49.68% 7.38%
was cash 0.00% 0.00%
was stocks 17.79% 25.16%
was stocks 0.00% 100.00%

67.47% 32.53% bearish
0.00% 100.00% bullish
SQQQ to cash to stocks ProShr UltraPro Short QQQ SQQQ to cash to stocks ProShr UltraPro Short QQQ
was cash 32.12% 10.57%
was cash 93.33% 6.67%
was stocks 8.30% 49.00%
was stocks 0.00% 0.00%

40.42% 59.58% bearish
93.33% 6.67% bullish
QLD to cash to stocks ProShr Ultra QQQ QLD to cash to stocks ProShr Ultra QQQ
was cash 49.31% 8.28%
was cash 0.00% 0.00%
was stocks 17.66% 24.75%
was stocks 0.00% 100.00%

66.97% 33.03% bearish
0.00% 100.00% bullish
QID to cash to stocks ProShr UltraShort QQQ QID to cash to stocks ProShr UltraShort QQQ
was cash 24.23% 0.00%
was cash 93.12% 6.88%
was stocks 8.88% 66.89%
was stocks 0.00% 0.00%

33.11% 66.89% bearish
93.12% 6.88% bullish
SPY to cash to stocks SPDR SP500 SPY to cash to stocks SPDR SP500
was cash 49.30% 16.78%
was cash 0.00% 0.00%
was stocks 0.00% 33.92%
was stocks 14.33% 85.67%

49.30% 50.70% bullish
14.33% 85.67% bullish
SPXL to cash to stocks Drxn SP500 Bull 3X SPXL to cash to stocks Drxn SP500 Bull 3X
was cash 49.77% 16.66%
was cash 0.00% 11.03%
was stocks 0.00% 33.58%
was stocks 19.19% 69.77%

49.77% 50.23% bullish
19.19% 80.81% bullish
SPXS to cash to stocks Drxn Daily SP500 Bear 3X SPXS to cash to stocks Drxn Daily SP500 Bear 3X
was cash 14.68% 0.00%
was cash 74.26% 13.10%
was stocks 0.00% 85.32%
was stocks 12.64% 0.00%

14.68% 85.32% bearish
86.90% 13.10% bullish
UPRO to cash to stocks ProShr UltraPro SP500 UPRO to cash to stocks ProShr UltraPro SP500
was cash 65.80% 16.99%
was cash 0.00% 0.00%
was stocks 0.00% 17.21%
was stocks 13.54% 86.46%

65.80% 34.20% bearish
13.54% 86.46% bullish
SPXU to cash to stocks ProShr UltraPro Short SP500 SPXU to cash to stocks ProShr UltraPro Short SP500
was cash 42.57% 0.00%
was cash 92.80% 7.20%
was stocks 7.96% 49.47%
was stocks 0.00% 0.00%

50.53% 49.47% bullish
92.80% 7.20% bullish