Gaussian Guess For Next Friday = No Real Clear Cut Signal

These are the weekly numbers of selected leverage ETFs and the Dow.  While the DJIA number indicates a sell situation its two related ETFs ddm and dxd give a mixed signal.  This is pretty much the same for all the other ETF pairs with the exception being the four based on the S&P 500.

The methodology selects 10 stocks that have the best correlation for each ETF (and Dow);  take their rate of change over the past year to build matrices;  reduce the matrices using Gaussian reduction - all this to TRY and predict next Friday's numbers, or rate of change.    Using a back test take ten better reductions. These ten show they are better predictors over the entire period (1 year).  Their average result is shown along with the reduction with the best shown prediction.


sym;last roc; avg of 10 best; the best
^dji;1.016;0.975; 0.974
ddm;1.03;1.056; 1.144
dxd;0.968;1.044; 1.042
erx;1.039;1.007; 1.044
ery;0.956;1.088; 1.14
dig;1.031;0.985; 0.983
dug;0.97;1.02; 1.019
qid;0.948;0.951; 0.952
qld;1.054;0.901; 0.9
sso;1.042;1.066; 1.085
sds;0.957;0.953; 0.953
rsu;1.042;1.033; 1.029
rsw;0.956;0.936; 0.946
tyh;1.093;1.257; 1.329
typ;0.91;0.83; 0.831
rom;1.065;0.98; 0.978
rew;0.938;1.03; 1.037
usd;1.054;1.054; 1.066
ssg;0.945;0.908; 0.904
soxl;1.097;0.97; 0.974
soxs;0.898;0.911; 0.945
uym;1.048;1.101; 1.095
smn;0.952;0.839; 0.846
uyg;1.084;1.171; 1.217
skf;0.918;0.941; 0.951
fas;1.126;1.229; 1.222
faz;0.88;1.078; 1.078
saa;1.086;1.136; 1.148
sbb;0.958;0.932; 0.94
tna;1.123;1.078; 1.075
tza;0.88;1.048; 1.048

Analysis:
Basic Materials: no change (up); no change (up);
DJIA: sell; no change (up); sell;
Energy: no change (up); sell; sell; sell;
Financials: no change (up); no change (up); no change (up); sell;
QQQ: no change (up); sell;
S&P 500: no change (up); no change (up); no change (up); no change (up);
Semiconductors: no change (up); no change (up); sell; no change (up);
Small Cap: no change (up); no change (up); no change (up); sell;
Technology: no change (up); no change (up); sell; sell;