Predicting The Trend for SP100 and SP500 ETFs : watch these retracements!

Tuesday, October 25, 2011

watch these retracements!

Brian Day at Bright Day Financial -

notice how the candlesticks filled in the green arc i drew which gave me the prediction for nov. just today, the market dropped after hitting 61.8% retrenchment of the drop in july/aug. now you know why i watch these retracements!

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Notes:

Follow my video blog Using WEKA, TA-Lib, and A.I. to estimate stock price trends

Combining the results from 15 different classification models for SP100 and 500 related ETFs - the results say we should expect continued "uptudiness" .Why? inverse (bearish) ETFs are in a cash position. While most bullish related ETFs are in a stock position.

The bullish/bearishness indicator is for the general market. So while an inverse type ETF may show a "go to stock" high percentage I look at this as a sell the market call. And vice versa if an inverse ETF has a high percentage in "go to cash" then it indicates a general market move to the upside.

Models: Best Moving Average, Double Moving Average, Triple Moving Average, MACD, RSI, MACD & RSI, Bollinger Bands, CCI, Derivative Oscillator, Stochastic, Double Stochastic, Ultimate Oscillator and Percentage Change Moving Average.

Attributes are mostly based on cross-overs.
Expected results used either a 3 or 4 day look-ahead.
All intervals for the models are optimized based on the best return for the past 8 months.

Was cash/stocks were models position at previous day.

To cash/stocks models expected next day position.

Predicting The Trend for SP100 and SP500 ETFs

Tuesday, October 25, 2011

watch these retracements!

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