Using Simple Moving Average - How Long Should You Wait?

It turns out the simple moving average strategy really only works for long term averages.  Here is an analysis of using SMAs of 5, 10, 15 and 50 days.  The diagrams, except the last, show the type of return 1%, 2%, 3%, %5 and 10%; the last shows returns for 2.5%, 5%, 7.5%, 10% and 15% 

The charts, again except for the last, show the total count of days to wait to get the above percentage return, from 1 to 9 days AND a give-up count; the last chart has it for mulitiples of 10 days up to 90 days.  Giving up is any number of days after 9 - or 90 for the last chart. 

For very short term trading giving up wins the contest all of the time. One note if you add up all of the days (1-9) and compare it to the give up count 1% gain does work but this 1% gain is more likely to occur only twice as often as giving up.   

For long term trading you can make $ but your percentage gain is not too great.

As with my other analysis this is an average of the S & P 100 stocks over the last 3000 calendar days.